Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019.
He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?; Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History; and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events.
That's a bit unusual, even for Russia. To see why, we need to go back to 1918.
[THREAD]
Herding cats is an apt metaphor for organizing academics—& even more apt for coordinating adversarial collaborations. But, somehow, Cory is pulling it off. Her thread below is worth reading. Her SPSP session in two weeks is worth attending
An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life.
Don't miss out curated content from your favorite people
Join to see curated content, recommendations and collections from your favorite people.
Find creators I follow
For understanding how tricky it is to translate “historical understanding” into forecasting accuracy, I recommend the elegantly threaded arguments of @ProfPaulPoast