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Highly recommend @AnnieDuke's new book Quit if you're interested in this topic! (And Angela Duckworth's newsletters "summer is for sampling" and "the paramecium principle" are worthwhile)
Interesting thread on the so-called "arrival fallacy"
been yrs since I went through this accounting lit, but this Marchant et al was one that stuck in my head [link] ...but if interested in cog entrenchment generally, the first time I read Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment it blew my mind. Highly recommend!