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# Probability

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Probability is a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true. Probability is a number between 0 and...

Probability is a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true. Probability is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written as 0.5 or 50%).
These concepts have been given an axiomatic mathematical formalization in probability theory, which is used widely in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science (in particular physics), artificial intelligence/machine learning, computer science, game theory, and philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events. Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities of complex systems.

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  • Extreme Value Theory: An Introduction
    • Book
    • by
      Laurens de Haan , Ana Ferreira
    • Feb 15, 2005
  • The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
    • Book
    • by
      Leonard Mlodinow
  • Thread by 10-K Diver: 1/ Get a cup of coffee. In this thread, I'll walk you through "Gambler's Ruin". This is a classic exercise in probability theory. But going beyond the math, this exercise can teach us a lot about life, business, and investing. twitter.com/10kdive
    • Tweet
    • by
      10-K Diver
    • Jan 1, 2023
  • Dicey Baseball
    • Video
    • by
      Tim Chartier
    • Jul 14, 2022
  • Thread by 10-K Diver: 1/ Get a cup of coffee. In this thread, I'll walk you through a probabilistic thought experiment. This will help you appreciate some key investing concepts: - SURVIVAL is key, - we need LONG TERM focus, - the LUCK vs SKILL conundrum, and - the CE
    • Tweet
    • by
      10-K Diver
    • Jun 26, 2022
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  • Taleb's Probability List
    • Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    • 8 curations
    • Jan 10, 2020

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Related Topics
Game Theory Natural Science Decision Making Math Psychology Philosophy Physics Statistics Extreme Value Theory
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