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All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
Payment boycotts spread across the property market. Some suppliers refuse to make good on bank loans until real estate developers pay them. China considers a mortgage grace period for homebuyers. Henan sets up a property bailout fund. 2/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-18/china-weighs-mortgage-grace-period-to-appease-angry-homebu...
What about banks? They'd forfeit $4.6 billion of interest income if China gives homebuyers a temporary mortgage-payment holiday, Citi says. Separately, authorities say they'll repay more victims of China's biggest-ever bank scam. 3/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-19/china-banks-to-forfeit-4-6-billion-on-mortgage-break-citi-...
Nervous markets. Foreign outflows from Chinese government bonds hit a record in June, the fifth straight month of selling. Bets against the currency are gathering pace. Prices on junk dollar debt are on the brink of an all-time low. 4/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-20/china-junk-bonds-on-brink-of-record-low-as-property-woes-g...
A flexible growth target. Premier Li Keqiang says “China won’t roll out massive stimulus, issue an excessive amount of money or overdraw the future for an overly high growth target.” Below is what to watch on the Chinese economy this year. 5/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-18/from-property-to-lockdowns-what-to-watch-in-china-s-second...
Didi's $1.2 billion fine. The long-awaited decision on Didi - the Uber-like company that pushed ahead with a U.S. IPO last year against China's wishes - at least removes some uncertainty over its future. Shares are up about 30% this week. 6/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/china-fines-didi-1-2-billion-after-wrapping-cybersecurity-...
Speaking of corporate behavior: HSBC. The bank has formed a Communist Party committee at its investment banking venture in China, the FT reports. The committees serve as unions and sometimes as a way to install party members in upper management. 7/10
www.ft.com/content/eac99fd9-0c30-4141-821a-45348f61c113
US, China, Taiwan. Biden and Xi may speak soon. It’s unclear a deal can be reached to avoid the delisting of Chinese stocks from US exchanges, the SEC says. China urges the US to withdraw a plan to sell arms to Taiwan. Pelosi may visit next month. 8/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/here-s-how-china-might-respond-to-a-taiwan-visit-by-nancy-...
Macau's Covid Zero casino crash. In 2019 gambling revenue was six times that of Las Vegas. This year Vegas is ahead. Casinos account for 80% of Macau's government income and 1/3 of employment. Casinos are set to reopen this weekend, will anyone come? 9/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-20/china-s-covid-zero-rules-dampen-macau-s-gambling-revenue
Money, companies, talent want to leave. An estimated 10,000 wealthy residents are seeking to pull $48b from China this year. Stellantis is halting production of Jeeps in China. Valuations for Bytedance are down at least 25%. HK's talent pool shrinks. 10/10
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-19/xi-s-strict-covid-zero-policy-in-china-pushes-wealthy-to-l...
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Noah Smith @NoahSmith · Jul 22, 2022
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Great thread.