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I've meaning to write a "COVID endgame" thread for a while and I apologize this is somewhat delayed compared to media interviews like www.science.org/content/article/will-pandemic-fade-ordinary-disease-flu-world-watching-denmark-clues and www.statnews.com/2021/09/20/winter-is-coming-again-what-to-expect-from-covid-19-as-the-season-looms/ and to recent seminars like youtube.com/watch?v=VErVD_H1BZ0. 1/17

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Great thread with a "best guess" from @trvrb on where post-pandemic (endemic) burden of COVID may end up. Note: how the virus evolves is one factor, but so is the host (us!) immune response once it's no longer novel. Also: even smaller risk can, at scale, add substantial burden.