Navigating the unpredictability of everything

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Jason Cohen
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Analysts at Goldman Sachs spend their whole life learning advanced mathematics, building sophisticated models of complex corners of the world, and are financially incentivized to predict the future accurately, because Goldman Sachs makes billions of dollars if they can be 10% more correct than the ne...

Analysts at Goldman Sachs spend their whole life learning advanced mathematics, building sophisticated models of complex corners of the world, and are financially incentivized to predict the future accurately, because Goldman Sachs makes billions of dollars if they can be 10% more correct than the next firm (who also employs brilliant analysts).

So, how accurately did they predict economic metrics within their area of expertise? They got it very wrong, for 25 years, often not even directionally correct:

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Justin Jackson 2mos

This piece by @asmartbear is so good. “Customers are where you discover how to upgrade your strategy. Since you know your initial strategy is wrong, following customers’ lead is how you correct it.”