Thread by Tony Yates🇺🇦🌻: There are lots of interesting angles to this unfolding crisis that took down Silicon Valley Bank, and now Signature Bank.

There are lots of interesting angles to this unfolding crisis that took down Silicon Valley Bank, and now Signature Bank.

One is the underlying trigger, the effect on longer term bond and related securities prices of the Fed's interest rate rises, and expected further rises.

These were, partly, a welcome normalization of a policy lever that had been trapped at the floor fighting the legacy depression following the previous financial crisis.

The stupidity of this is that interest rates, from the standpoint of a couple of years ago, were only going to go one way, because they could not go down. This was not a hard risk to foresee.