Thread
Picked up a football/soccer analytics hobby during 2019 and it became a welcome distraction to dive into during 2020 lockdown periods. Through that process, became aware of and fan of AYNE podcasts with @RPMComo and @ttmygh, and have learned a lot about the business of sport.
Applying the Kayfabe Capital analytical framework to Rogers' piece, I agree largely with his directional conclusions but think the abruptness and severity of events could surprise.
From an entertainment product perspective, domestic European football is "kayfabe" as a
From an entertainment product perspective, domestic European football is "kayfabe" as a
competitive sporting endeavor, but does not have that self-awareness (Wrexham experiment a notable exception) to invest in the production to make it more interesting in the modern era.
The volume of games that are tantamount to Billy Madison playing dodgeball vs 1st graders,
The volume of games that are tantamount to Billy Madison playing dodgeball vs 1st graders,
or 'grade school children' playing each other, is high.
I am a father of 2 teenage children and I regularly ask them about whether there is any discussion or "buzz" about various sporting events amongst their friends. It is almost always a zero - crickets.
I am a father of 2 teenage children and I regularly ask them about whether there is any discussion or "buzz" about various sporting events amongst their friends. It is almost always a zero - crickets.
The huge cultural events like Super Bowl and WC final get a little for maybe a day.
Anecdotal for sure, but my friend group is generally a bunch of sports-obsessed fathers and all the dads say the same thing...apathy. The anecdote is supported by the following:
Anecdotal for sure, but my friend group is generally a bunch of sports-obsessed fathers and all the dads say the same thing...apathy. The anecdote is supported by the following:
That comes from a 2021 market research report from Emory University, which can be found here:
It is US-centric but 'demographics as destiny' are worse in Europe. The development of a sizable demo of "anti-fans" is new & Gen Z interest is on the decline.
www.fandomanalytics.com/fandom-analytics
It is US-centric but 'demographics as destiny' are worse in Europe. The development of a sizable demo of "anti-fans" is new & Gen Z interest is on the decline.
www.fandomanalytics.com/fandom-analytics
The football/soccer industry appears to be headed where the broader financial world is headed - American financial/corporate imperialism with the GCC elite trying to play in-between emergent financial war/WWIII.
Large US corporate interests via US government squashing domestic competition and using each crisis to further consolidate power, with that now extending to Europe as the domestic pie usurpation reaches some limits.
The US/UK potentially blowing up gas pipelines in the EU
The US/UK potentially blowing up gas pipelines in the EU
to use LNG/energy would be a brazen example of financial imperialism trying to move the EU towards an even greater form of US vassal.
What interest there is has become focused in the latent "bro" culture, which is increasingly one of 20-something men with gambling at the
What interest there is has become focused in the latent "bro" culture, which is increasingly one of 20-something men with gambling at the
center of engagement, that also fits with the manias in crypto/NFT and insane casino-fication of the stock market via meme stocks, options trading, etc.
And all this is unfolding where the world is likely in the early stages of the first severe global recession
And all this is unfolding where the world is likely in the early stages of the first severe global recession
in over 40 years. The financial and societal forces this all could unleash are likely to be non-linear - think Richter Scale-style math.
"Big finance" and their acolytes at central banks and in governments remain generally clueless on this non-linearity, as they were
"Big finance" and their acolytes at central banks and in governments remain generally clueless on this non-linearity, as they were
with the cost of living crises. The GFC served to launch the current gulf in football/soccer, where the Big 5 completely disconnected from the other European leagues. I suspect this cycle may result in an even more extreme consolidation of resources and power.
It will be interesting to see who wins that battle.
With the super league 'coup' having been a huge failure, the likes of Celtic/Rangers/Ajax/Benfica/Porto/Red Star etc. plus the big names out of the "losing" Big 5 have been 'boxed out' for this scramble for resources
With the super league 'coup' having been a huge failure, the likes of Celtic/Rangers/Ajax/Benfica/Porto/Red Star etc. plus the big names out of the "losing" Big 5 have been 'boxed out' for this scramble for resources
and shrinking pie by the English Premiere League. Without a more balanced distribution of resources, the Champions League has turned into just another "Billy Madison" dodgeball iteration for many group games and until the knockout games.
Global recession may drive this quickly to a boiling point, as the kleptocratic supremacy settling on the EPL via big US/GCC money may render the 'rest' even more impotent than they are already becoming. Can the cats be herded to create an alternative before it is too late? 
