1/ Buckle up, we’ve entered the toughest phase of the bear market.

Welcome to Stage 3 🧵

2/ As a reminder, Stage 1 was The Unwind

The excitement (+ greed) from the bull still existed.

Narratives popped up. Valuations got cut but companies didn't kill products or do layoffs.

Stage 1 didn't feel like a bear... it felt like we pulled back to "realistic" valuations.

3/ Stage 2 was Forced Capitulation

This is where it got ugly.

Narratives died. Prices fell 90%... then another 90%. Layoffs across the board. Mainstream media rose up, laughed, and shouted "I told you!"

In Stage 2, prices crashed violently.

Excitement was replaced by anger.

4/ We're now out of Stage 2 and into Stage 3.

Welcome to Bottomless Exhaustion

There will be no narratives. Prices will consolidate sideways. It'll be boring.

Where we're at now, anger has been replaced by silence.

From max pain to max exhaustion, your enemy is now apathy.

5/ This is the toughest part of the bear market.

This will be the year you work long days and ship great products only to see your key metrics go down day after day.

Your friends will leave. Your coworkers will leave.

You'll question every assumption you had about crypto.

6/ In bull markets you can be productive on a Tuesday and see the outcome of your efforts by Wednesday.

In bear markets you won't see the outcome of your efforts for another 12+ months.

It's fking draining!

But bear markets don't test talent – they test perseverance.

7/ I'm here to remind you that this is worth it.

Anyone who has been through it before will tell you... it's so incredibly worth it.

I can assure you, there's no better feeling than seeing everything you built in a bear market pay dividends in the bull.

8/ And if you don't believe me, think in terms of regret minimization.

How will you feel when the next bull market comes and you've gone back to your TradFi or SaaS job.

Many talented people left during the last bear market.

Those who stayed were rewarded.

9/ If you're feeling dejected right now, that's okay!

I'm on dozens of calls every week. Trust me, everyone is feeling it right now.

You just need to find a way to survive, build value, and power through.

Things will get worse before they get better but we're in this together.

10/ @QwQiao said it well:

Simply being aware of this exhaustion gives you a massive edge.

11/ I said it 7 months ago and I'll say it again:

We're building an open, permissionless world.

This will take decades, not years.

If you're feeling dejected, close the computer, zoom out, go for a walk.

Just don't give up 💜