Ok, let's get serious here.
Open Editions are going huge right now, facilitated through @manifoldxyz contracts, and they are very cool!
However, buyers will soon be in for a shock, when they get absolutely rekt!!!
We have seen this all before, back in early 2021
Back in early 2021, the most popular place to buy NFTs (besides 1/1s) was on @niftygateway . Through the 2nd half of 2020, we were seeing a slow but steady increase in prices, and users on the website, with a few big sales over 50k for some 1/1s by @trevorjonesart and @beeple
In December 2020 Beeple launched 3 open editions, each selling in the range of ~200-400 each, for a price of $969, this was big! The thing is, there were 21 1/1 auctions, and a mystery bidder was placing bids and winning all of them, under different names.
Later it was found out it was @metakovan buying the 20 1/1's. However, during the last 1/1, there was a surprise bid of 777k by @illestrater_ , and metakovan had no time to transfer the money, so he was not able to secure all 20.
Now the beeple opens were already slowly trending up, but this sent them sky rocketing. As 2021 opened, every single limited edition drop was selling out within a minute, or even seconds, as bots were spun up to flip the NFTs.
The @muratpak fusions and extrusions were up next as open editions, each selling over 400 (along with another called Sense), these traded down initially, from 500 down to 350. However, the dip ended, and the market went INSANE over the next 6 weeks.
The beeples that were minted at 969 reached a peak single sale of $282,000, with many of the other opens trading between 100-200k. The thing is, almost every single open edition was selling for a profit immediately, and trended up.
Prices were raised, in the hope that it would discourage people, and less would be minted, however, people just kept minting more and more, despite higher mint prices.
Bitcoin angel by @trevorjonesart hit over 4000 mints, and @Mad_Dog_Jones Cats had over 900 mints at $2500. These would both 4x or more within a few weeks. Both artists have since done burns to reduce supply, which helped hold prices, but market forces did their thing.
The market roughly peaked around Feb 24th or so, and when @Grimezsz launched her open editions. Her NFT Mars for example was minted 303 times at $7500, and it even traded up slightly after mint, but that was it, that was the top.
The crash was both sudden, and slow. The final top buys left a hole, no one wanted to buy. To sell, you had to lower your price 10-30% below floor, and be called a 'paper hand'. In the end, the amount of sales significantly reduced, and each sale was lower than the last.
Prices on most of these NFTs proceeded to crash around 90% by May, just a few months later, while only Beeple and Pak made some highs a bit after, based on their auction results at traditional auction houses.
Some of these artists went on to make big comebaks, such as @muratpak @fewocious @xcopybot , and many other artists are still active and are great artists, but their $ peaks were in. Not only that, but eth was on the move, from around the 1-2k range, back up to over 4k.
So what happened? It was simply a mania. People saw that you could mint any open , and you could make an instant profit. People bought more on secondary because they thought they could make an instant profit. Expectations were prices always go up, because they had.
Burns started getting factored into the prices also. People started taking bigger risks, buying more, spending more, telling their friends and family. They also bought on leverage, with credit cards. The house collapsed, and many got totally rekt.
So, where are we today? I won't say I have seen the exact stats around the latest open editions, but I have been following, and buying some. I have been buying art I liked, and not for profit, although I have sold some for profit, but nothing major at all.
I am seeing the same signs, I have even seen users buy/mint over 100 of the latest @NyanCat , and that bet has paid of beautifully!
I want to make it clear, I do not blame artists for what will likely happen now, a collapse of the 'open edition meta', they make their art, they offer it, the market does what it does. I personally am buying art I love, want to keep ,and that is cheap, it's win:win.
I also am saying I am not sure when this open edition meta bubble will pop. We literally could be right there, ready to burst today, or maybe we got 1-6 weeks left of it, I am not certain. All I know is that people will continue to place bigger and bigger bets.
I suggest monitoring the numbers. As soon as some big mints go 'wrong', as in, not making big profit right away, that is the warning sign, the sign to run, and get out.
Artists should also at least consider the consequences of minting into this bubble, having an insane amount of NFTs created, could be a huge burden, especially if minting near the top, as most holders may ended up underwater. Many artist were treated unfairly and pressured---
by collectors. In general, I would suggest not pyramiding/increasing amount bought each time. Treat each mint as a new 'trade', if that is what you intend to do, and get back your money at least fast. Besides that, buy art that you love, even just one to keep.
I hope this helps, stay safe everyone 🫡
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