In a world of MASSIVE change - a 4th Turning maybe - where our personal economies, finance, politics and our old ways of life are all called into question as the world seeks fresh answers and a new way forward, the rise of "Speculative Communities" has occurred. 1/
These ideas are influenced by the book I am reading "Speculative Communities: Living with Uncertainty in a Financialzed World" by @ariskomporozos suggested to me by @iancr. Im still working through this fascinating book but here are some initial thoughts...
In a world of change where the future is really hard to know but is moving INCREDIBLY fast, the world fragments into communities of like-minded beliefs. That is fairly common and understood.
Some communities reject the future, some embrace the uncertainty and others see different futures. In this day and age of financialization, we get to speculative on these outcomes and create "Speculative Communities".

The flip side of speculation is insurance....
Futures and options were invented both for speculation and for insurance, creating a deep 2-sided market.

In this case, they become the same thing. Finance becomes like voting based on memes, narratives and myths.

All day on FinTwit and CT this plays out and in markets too.
Everything financial becomes political.

Those that are concerned by the rapid societal change begin to bet on narratives of nostalgia (h/t @DeeSmithTexas), the times of the past that give us comfort - fossil fuels, value stocks, anti-financialization, austerity, etc
Those that wants to benefit from the future, whatever it is, tend to bet on technology, crypto, etc

Both are forms of insurance policy on the uncertain future.

They are all like-minded communities looking to each other for support and comfort in this rapid changing time.
They are narrative voting machines as well as insurance policies.

The financial markets and the strength of their memes and communities are a hope to influence the future outcomes...A way to have say outside of the rigged, bias game of traditional politics.
To ULTRA simplify into memes:

Less money to EV = less change.

More money to crypto = more change.

Everyone is unhappy with the status quo and wants to find a way to take back "control".

Obviously, none of us has control over the outcomes as tech accelerates, exponentially.
It will become even more polarizing as time goes on. Remember this tweet from 2021? This is the point I'm trying to make:

Even crypto has splintered into different factions - for example hardcore Bitcoin philosophy vs the Web 3 philosophy.

The rise of AI will only exacerbate this, especially when we overlay Moore Law and Metcalfe's Law. The sand will be feel rapidly shifting under our feet.
Wall Street Bets, Los Indignados, Occupy Wall St, etc are all part of the same.

We all feel fucked and we want a way out - bringing back the past or trying to profit from or cement a very uncertain future.

Either way, we want to protect/insure ourselves.
Others, like @punk6529, are fighting/trying to insure themselves/ourselves from the potential worst parts of that possible future - complete control of the internet/metaverse (the future internet) by centralized actors.

Greta is doing the same with climate.
The Bitcoinners are trying to fight for the same but for protection of finance/money.

The gold bugs, the same but by reverting to a past state.

They all have opposition too.

The markets are now political voting machines and you feel it every day here on Twitter, the key forum
Politics overall has become the same - nostalgia vs embracing the future, hoping either will be better.

Meanwhile, the technology world keeps spinning faster and faster, exponentially.

We all have to find ways of dealing with it.
There are no right answers. We aren't going back to the past, even if we want it.

We can't tell the future, however hard we squint and study it.

We simply don't have control over any of it.

So, we have a choice...
Bet on an outcome to hope to influence it the flow of capital...

Choose the insurance of betting on those things know - the past. However rose-tinted the spectacles.

Or bet on the insurance of the future - and hope to profit from it, however rose-tinted the spectacles.
Geopolitics is equally uncertain...

The New World Order is being re-written.
Pax Americana is being re-written.
Political economies are being re-written.
The Societal Contract is being re-written.
The unknown IS our collective future... for everyone.

Change is happening faster regardless of our wishes, and the biggest societal event in most of our lifetimes was 2008, where we all lost trust in "those in charge", realizing that we were on our own - a watershed moment.
That watershed event, combined with the acceleration of technology (and who or what wins) is the defining narrative of our times.

At the end of that road lies the potential singularity where the machines becomes smarter overall than the humans in our lifetimes.
And the secure world of Pax Americana, New World Order and our system of politics and economics (behavioral economics will throw out the old models too) and political economics will die.
If all that doesn't scare the fuck out of you, you are made of stone.

But the probability is v high over the next 25 years. WHEN we generalize quantum computing, it's GAME OVER.

To many who have spent time on this topic (I have), it is an inevitability. How that future looks?
Who the fuck knows! But we might be able to influence it.

But in the meantime, realize that EVERYONE is dealing with the same, but in different ways.

Have some empathy for others. These times are not easy and will get even more scary/exciting/terrifying all at the same time.
If you want to go down the rabbit hole read:

Ray Kurzweil - The Singularity
Homos Deus - Noah Harari
Crazy Smart - Mo Gawdat
Speculative Communities -
It's ok to be tribal and to hold onto a narrative but realize that we are not really in control of it and our actions are us trying desperately to hold on to something we understand or influence it.

My choice? Bet on the future.

Being an optimist leads to opportunity.

Recommended by
Recommendations from around the web and our community.

Great thread. When dealing with uncertainty, fear is the only real problem. Communities of smart people are a potent force.