Thread by Alberto Arenaza: I always take predictions with a grain of salt but... ...I had to do it 👀 Here are our 2023 edtech predictions at @transcendnet! Had fun jamming with @mnarea on this one. twitter.com/albertoarenaza/status/1615737352420458496/photo/1

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Alberto Arenaza
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I always take predictions with a grain of salt but...

...I had to do it 👀

Here are our 2023 edtech predictions at @transcendnet!

Had fun jamming with @mnarea on this one.
Each prediction comes with a very specific metric to measure at the end of the year, so we can hold ourselves accountable in 2024.

I look forward to a data-driven confirmation that I am an idiot 😂

Here are our 7 predictions:
#1: Startup M&A will be back 🤝

Mergers and acquisitions were down bad in 2022, but I expect they'll rise back up again with

a) acquihires for failing startups, and

b) buyouts for scaling companies (sub-unicorns scaleups) that PE firms could buy and run.
#2: We’ll see 70+ US college closures this year 🏫

Recessions tend to be a great time for universities (because unemployment pushes people to upskill), but we actually expect other upskilling programs (bootcamps, apprenticeships, certificates) to really benefit this time around!
Decreasing demand for college is nothing new, but we think this will be a true wake-up call, as we talked about in The Great University Reset:

transcend.substack.com/p/university-reset
#3: 2023 is the year of Boring Edtech 🛣️

Move over, ✨ glamorous edtech ✨, Boring Edtech that solves less sexy (but real problems) in education is here to stay!
#4: Edtech funding will be the same as 2022 💰

While the economy crashes, you'd expect edtech funding to collapse too. But edtech funding globally was down 50% in 22, and investors have funds to deploy... so I'd expect it to stay roughly equal as 2022!
in our 2023 State of Edtech Fundraising, we surveyed investors in the space.

35% of them said they are planning to invest more in 2023 than last year, only 18% said less!

transcend.substack.com/p/edtech-fundraising
#5: We’ll see a rise in AI “Copilot” tools 🤖

What does the Github Copilot look like for writing, music making, video editing, poetry, emails, public speaking, and other creative endeavors?

transcend.substack.com/p/how-ai-will-change-education-part
#6: Layoffs will unlock a new wave of entrepreneurial talent 🚀

As the labor market changes, we predict a wave of bootstrapped founders building services and training startups that thrive over the next few years.

#7: The year we rethink exams 📝

2022 shocked us with the capabilities of Generative AI. 2023 will be the year where we apply it to change how we assess learning (i really hope we do).

Always love reading @daisychristo's writing!

www.tes.com/magazine/teaching-learning/secondary/future-of-assessment-onscreen-exams-no-grades-ai
You can review the full predictions in the @transcendnet newsletter. What are your predictions for 2023?

transcend.substack.com/p/2023predictions
Also, you can join @mnarea and me next Thurday for a Twitter Spaces where we'll jam on these predictions, so you too can chime in!

See you soon amigos ☀️

twitter.com/i/spaces/1MYxNgEDzDVKw
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Frank Catalano 2mos

Worth a read, both the thread and the newsletter. I second the notion that boring #edtech is the best kind of edtech. When ANY category of tech gets boring, it means it's likely a stable, profitable segment. Just not flashy. I know boring. I mean, I am.