Label me a pessimist, but all I see is a whole lot of hot air.

9x in two months during the bull run with barely a retrace? 10x against BTC since 2021?

Must be a "new paradigm".

"You don't understand, BNB has so much utility in the Binance ecosystem. You get a discount on fees & it's the native asset for rugpulls on Binance Smart Chain. It's going up forever & at a 50b mkt cap its a steal. It's different than all of the other vaporware exchange tokens."
I'm sure it was retail that sent BNB 10x in two months. Same with FTT, right?

It definitely wasn't the exchange operator with an incentive to drive up the price of their own token to create a feedback loop of attention, hype, and more users...

Definitely not.
Yeah, I know, I don't understand the ~tokenomics~.

It's definitely all not just levered beta...

The outperformance against *everything* is telling, and you should ask yourself what is the reason. Who is supporting this market (we know), and do they have infinite money?
Think of some alts that outperformed this bull run?

SOL (Alameda leverage and fraud), AVAX (3AC), LUNA (perpetual motion machine), etc.

It wasn't a new paradigm. It was just leverage & people believing the story. BNB is different I presume?
CZ says Binance doesn't leverage against it, great. But users do, & Binance subsidizes the financing cost.

So the thing that traded with a 30d realized vol of 300 during the bull run suddenly is absent of downside vol.

Interesting. New paradigm indeed.
This entire space is just an attempt at modern alchemy. Create tokens out of thin air & use capital + marketing in an illiquid market to create a narrative.

Binance got 40% of BNB in ICO, which was worth ~$50b at the top.

CZ my man, I really hope you're telling the truth.
Who knows, maybe BNB is simply part of a new paradigm and I'm some moron threading on twitter.

Long live π™©π™€π™ π™šπ™£π™€π™’π™žπ™˜π™¨ 🫑
Last point on the matter for now:

Here is the volume side profile for:

1) Binance BNB/BTC spot market
2) Binance BNB/USDT perpetual swaps (leverage)


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Great thread Dylan. Always manage tail risks. Bear markets don’t end until illiquid assets are correctly marked to market. Stay vigilant. #btc