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imo, the era of ETH has truly begun
We're seeing a huge positive shift in ETH investment climate.
This time is different🧵
We're seeing a huge positive shift in ETH investment climate.
This time is different🧵
The merge turbocharged our legitimacy. Institutions & megacorps are onboarding rapidly and at scale. Our multichain world is becoming an L2 world. ETH adoption is immune to the bear.
BTC can't remain #1. Bitcoin's mining expense and lack of real programmability continue to drag it down. During its flippening death throes over the new few years, BTC will try to pivot into defi, but it's a pivot that merely acknowledges that eth has been on the right track.
ETH roadmap bears have been crushed by the merge's success. Now, nobody thinks that EIP-4844 and other upgrades aren't coming. It's been a huge net increase in confidence for Ethereum's longevity.
Web3 deniers, who think web3 is a nothingburger, are on a path to extinction. The holdouts are becoming perceived as increasingly radical and ridiculous.
ETH govt & censorship bears are ascendant this season. But informed ppl know these concerns are way overblown. Eth isn't close to being captured. OFAC compliance is largely voluntary & dynamic in the profit motive. And politically-minded ppl know crypto is going to spend in 2024.
Macro is looking terrible. imo, most likely the worst is yet to come. Eth's hypergrowing success gives us upward price pressure, but a global recession is a strong downward force. Whether we see new lows or not is an open Q. Likely no ATHs until 2024, but could be up only slowly.
During the last crypto cycle (~top to ~top), Bitcoin miners were paid ~$30B and Eth miners ~25B. Since the merge, Bitcoin miners have been paid $875M. ETH's newfound profitability is a powerful undercurrent that will help drive the flippening & monetary premium in the coming yrs.
As web3 continues growing to global ubiquity, no single chain, regardless of its high scalability, can hope to serve even a fraction of global demand for blockspace. We're living in an inherently multichain world.
Moreover, chain fragmentation is a highest-order political issue. The world naturally demands a political diversity of chains. The good news is Eth sells sovereignty: L2s/L3s/private chains can be fully under their owner's control while benefiting from settling on/bridging to Eth
L2s are better than alt L1s; they are cheaper to run, more secure, may have the same functionality and codebases as alt L1s, and gain access to valuable community, capital, users, and live cross-L2 resources by settling on eth. L2 SDKs and rollups-as-a-service will be huge.
imo, our multichain world is going to have a lot of chains. A key part of the ETH investment case is that most of these chains will be much better off being L2s/L3s on Eth, or private chains bridged to Eth, vs. being alt L1s.
Due to Eth's amazing strategy and execution of being credibly neutral and maximally decentralized, we have a very significant and defensible monopoly on being by far the best (and sufficiently scalable) hub for L2/L3 settlement and bridges to private chains.
Note that as we continue to see hypergrowth in our L1/L2s/L3s/private chains bridged to eth, it's effectively impossible for this growth to not translate into huge, sustainable value accrual for ETH. Ethereum's success is ETH's success.
ETH's market cap is only 9% of Apple today ($200B vs. $2.2T). This matters a lot because despite our amazing growth and post-merge profitability, ETH might have limited upside if we were already, say, 10x larger than Apple. But we're not. We're early.
In summary, despite the short-to-medium term threat of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, ETH is looking stronger than ever and continues to be a generational investment opportunity.
imo, the next bull run will see ETH at $20k+. And this decade, we may see ETH at $100k+, which is only 6x the size of Apple-- a reasonable valuation for a global settlement layer and hub of the world's new internet.
