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It looks like the last few days have been the most consequential of the Ukraine War.

A brief thread, updated during the day.
Reports are coming in that Kupyansk has fallen, and also, just now, early reports that Izyum has been abandoned with Russian troops fleeing.
I tweeted this map a few days ago. Kupyansk is the yellow circle, and Izyum the red circle. By taking K the Ukr cut off the logistics to Izyum making it undefendable.
The Russians fled Izyum in what can only be described as a rout.

The Ukrainians have just fought a brilliant piece of combined arms manœuvrer.
The Russian armed forces have been demonstrated, again, to be utterly terrible.
Russian units are now reportedly trying to relocate to the Donbas. Once they get there they have to contend with the loss of Izyum and Kupyansk - the two railway hubs for that side of the country.
The Russians use rail for lots of their log and so this is very significant - the Russians will not be able to conduct offensive operations in the Donbas anymore until (if ever?) they reconfigure their logistics.
But as ever - this is all about Kherson. Watch over there too today - because Crimea is the Russian strategic centre of gravity and the Kherson pocket will need to collapse to make that happen.
But after what we’ve seen over the last 72 hours the collapse of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine doesn’t seem a long way away.
Will update during the day.

And to answer the normal question that I always get when I tweet, Putin won’t use nuclear weapons because he knows that if he does that will be the end of his time as President of Russia.
Izyum has just been surrendered by the Russians.

Details to follow.
Russian propagande machine turning against Putin:

“Silence benefits irresponsible and unprofessional leaders, who are responsible for the special operation, but who are destroying themselves together with the country”
Importance of Kupyansk and Izyum for rail network (which Russian logistics rely on)
Looks like the Russians have pulled out of Lyman as well.

Dominos springs to mind
Lysychansk - remembers that place from the Battle of the Donbas? - the Ukrainians are pushing forward and attacking there
Ok. Ukr AF holding Izyum. Piles of Russian heavy equipment abandoned.

At this rate with western AND Russian backing Ukraine will have the best armed forces in the world
This is starting to move so fast now, that I’m gonna make a bold prediction for a war ending move frm Ukr. Blue arrows are current Ukrainian assaults. Black is what they need to do to isolate Kherson (hook via Melitopol) and cut the bridge connecting Crimea to R to isolate Crimea
Don’t know if they got the reserves or manoeuvre capability to do it but if they do it’s one of the most stunning pieces of generalship ever.
Russian officials reporting that they are withdrawing from Izyum in order to reinforce Donetsk.

This is all planned folks. Nothing to see here.
Ukrainian force attacking Russian positions on outskirts of Lyschansk

🔥
Oh my days.

Donetsk Airport

They’ll be in Vladivostok soon at this rate.
Ukrainian vanguard here. Looks like they might be heading for the Black Sea coast.
Nice. Bit of cyber and info ops at the same time. What modern militaries call the multi-domain battle.

Question for me is does Ukraine have a strategic reserve?

I’m assuming that thrust down towards the Black Sea is the guys that came from Izyum via Donetsk.

But is there another all-arms task force waiting for the right opportunity?
When and where to commit your reserve is literally THE question for the theatre commander.
Here we go. There is a strategic reserve apparently

Whole strings of settlements liberated north and east of Kharkiv; Russian troops abandoning posts and equipment. Ukraine AF will reach international border in next 24-48 hours in that area south of Belgograd
Rumours of a thrust towards Mariupol.

This is one of two things:

- An actual strike on Mariupol
- A demonstration (1) to get the Russians to commit units to its defence (2) so Ukraine can then commit its reserve, probably towards Melitopol/Crimea (3)

Here we go. So the Russians are rushing to defend Mariupol. Ukraine to commit reserves in 3-2-1



Kherson - keep watching Kherson

Russian forces look cut off near Lyman - doesn’t appear that they are able to hold the defensive line of the Oskil River.

Expect further retreats in the NE / E of the country
Ukrainians apparently across the Oskil.

This is bad news for the Russians - no natural defensive barriers beyond the Oskil for a while.

Severodonetsk and Lyschansk - of Battle of the Donbas fame - appear to be in play in the next 24/48 hrs
We are watching the collapse of Russian power in real time


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