. @EPBResearch coincident employment index just went negative [payrolls, u3, hours worked, etc].

Employment the most lagging indicator (ex inflation) and fading pretty fast.

Confirmed by full time employment (-ve 3mos in a row), as well as daily treasury wage withholding data.

Wage withholding data below:

Total hours worked via VP

Manufacturing hours worked via EPB

NFP being held up by multiple job holders. Inflation forcing folks to pick up additional jobs and reenter the labor force.

Seasonal adjustments seem to be overstating data as well. Looks super funky. h/t @MikaelSarwe

ADP finally got their act together. Most recent print a fair amount below NFP.

Over the past 6 months, there has been a +2.227mm job difference between change in full-time employees and what NFP reported. Largest ever ex Covid.

What it means -- one of the surveys is completely wrong. NFP seriously overstated. Multiple full & part time job holders mooning.