#Russia cuts gas supply to Germany, France and Italy, on the day that Scholz, Macron and Draghi are in #Ukraine. Timing is no coincidence, but the underlying strategy is economics: Russia is cutting off gas gradually, thereby maximizing the remaining revenue it can still get. 1/3

#Gazprom is exploiting its market power, using sanctions as an excuse to break its commitments (says German vice chancellor Habeck). All of this is rational, given that gas relations with the EU have no future. Contracts don't matter at this point, only physics do. 2/3

There is probably no good measure against it. I'm skeptical that embargo threats or price caps will get cheap gas flowing. Germany has built itself a trap, and it will simply have to pay the price for not diversifying away from Russia earlier. 3/3