Thread
Points by left-wing German academics on why a Russian energy embargo is bad: (i) embargo won't end the war; (ii) it hurts Germany more than Russia; (iii) sanctions mean Putin isn't getting hard currency for his energy exports; (iv) even if he gets hard currency, he can't spend it
Each of these points has by now been THOROUGHLY discredited. On (i) and (ii), an embargo by itself won't stop the war, but this is a ridiculous "straw man." An embargo may help end the war sooner. That's what matters. And Russia will be hit MUCH harder by an embargo than Germany.
Points (iii) and (iv) ignore basic BoP accounting. If there's a current account surplus due to energy exports, Russia gets paid for those. So it HAS to be accumulating foreign assets, which it can then use to buy stuff. Not all banks are sanctioned, so that's where this happens.
Perhaps the oddest push-back from left-wing academics is the thought that Germany cannot afford an embargo, given that most of them enthusiastically bashed Germany's debt brake and advocated for more debt before the war. An interesting time to become a fiscal conservative...
There's also lots of talk that the EU should just ban exports to Russia. The thinking goes: that way we can still import Russian energy, but won't give them anything in return. Seems unrealistic. Why would Putin keep exporting energy, if it buys him nothing? Not happening...
A related issue is that Russia's energy exports - via hard currency inflows - provide a constant liquidity injection into Russia's financial system. An embargo removes that, an export ban doesn't. So an energy embargo severely tightens financial conditions & hits GDP way harder.
Fair to say that most of the arguments from left-wing academics have by now been completely discredited. What remains is uncertainty over how hard Germany would be hit by an embargo. That is - admittedly - unknowable. But the hit will be far smaller than the hit to Russia...
Mentions
See All
  • Post
  • From Twitter
Good thread