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Here's what I think would move the popularism debate along. We need some specific testable claims, because I see different versions of the idea circulating.
1) The popularity of the president's public positions is associated with their approval rating and reelection.
1) The popularity of the president's public positions is associated with their approval rating and reelection.
2) The popularity of positions associated with a political party (fairly or not) affect the popularity of all of a party's officeholders.
(e.g., this is the claim implicit in the idea that "defunding the police" cost Democrats in 2020)
(e.g., this is the claim implicit in the idea that "defunding the police" cost Democrats in 2020)
3) The popularity of the positions associated with a president (or his party?) affect how many seats that president's party loses in a midterm election.
And does this apply to the out-party too? Do the GOP's unpopular positions matter right now?
And does this apply to the out-party too? Do the GOP's unpopular positions matter right now?
4) Whether candidates hold positions popular with voters in their district affects their chances of reelection.
(FYI, some evidence for this, although usually measured by overall "extremism" rather than popularity of specific positions.)
(FYI, some evidence for this, although usually measured by overall "extremism" rather than popularity of specific positions.)
In other words, we need to take seriously the likelihood that effects differ across levels of office, or dependent variables, or measures of "popularity." Effects in some contexts are likely difficult to distinguish from zero.
We also need evidence that politicians in a party suffer when some other politicians in that party take an unpopular position. Popularists appear to believe that this unpopularity is somehow transferable via the party's brand, but do we know that?
I have my own priors here, as well as -- teaser! -- evidence against "defunding hurt Democrats" that is in our forthcoming book on the 2020 election.
But I'm genuinely open to evidence. I just want to clarify the hypotheses here.
But I'm genuinely open to evidence. I just want to clarify the hypotheses here.
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
ยท
Mar 31, 2022
This is a good thread, but I sincerely stick with my original complaint that the *best* way to move the debate forward would be for anti-popularists to stop deliberately misrepresenting positions and instead cite and argue with specific claims made by specific people.