The retired opinion leader @HuXijin_GT gave a candid explanation of why China should support Russia on WeiBo. Interestingly he meant it for domestic consumption and didn’t post it on Twitter. I am doing him a favor by translating the main points (thread)
“Some Chinese demand China to follow the West and condemn Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is naive”

“Let me be candid today and explain the strategic importance of Russia to China”
“On the surface level, China and Russia support each other diplomatically, on Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, HongKong. But more importantly, is our back to back strategic alliance”
“China, rather than Russia, is America’s major strategic competitor. America’s focus now is on Russia, but as Mike Pence said, give it some time they will refocus on China. And when that day comes, we will thank Russia for being our ally, or at least being neutral”
Russia’s war takes it to the forefront of competition with the US, temporarily replacing China, giving us breathing space to regroup after Trump’s brutal trade war. Two powers resisting US hegemony is better than one”
“A no-limit partnership with Russia will have strong deterrence effect on US policy, making it harder for US to move for final showdown with China, with Russia’s supply of energy, food and other raw materials”
“If war breaks out in Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, China’s conventional capability can already surpass US. With Russia’s hostile nuclear force, it will be difficult for US to leverage its nuclear deterrence against China “
“A strategic alliance btw Russia and China is mutually beneficial and reinforcing, providing deterrence against Japan and India”
“If US can drive a wedge btw Russia and China, Putin will face certain defeat, and China will be next. We will go back to the old days of being anti-Russia and anti-US at the same time”
“Some say why not take the chance to repair relations with US? Its goal for Russia is to disarm, but its goal for China is to completely stop our development and prosperity, make us a client state like Japan and Korea, buy its weapons, and remain only a cheap source of product”
“China will avoid conflict with US not proactively challenge US, but will use our power to force US to accept peaceful coexistence. Russia is the most important partner to achieve this goal. That’s why we can’t abandon Putin during this war. This is in our long term interest” end
P.S. I find it most amusing that while the Chinese Government tells the world repeatedly that China is neutral on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Comrade Hu is busy speaking the quiet part loud

The fatal flaw of Hu’s value free realist view of international relations is: Russia will assess future situation (Taiwan) the exact same way, based on its calculation of maximising its own interest, rather than repaying the debt China thinks it owes

Bütikofer is the Chair for the China Working Group of the European Parliament

China: We are no threat to US because we have fewer nukes.
Also China: Russia has to invade because it is threat to Russia (despite Ukraine having zero nukes)

Hu praises Russia for “proactively seeking negotiation with Ukraine” and not using nukes. He never once condemned Russia’s invasion. What a tool

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Interesting thread--most straightforward case why China will continue to support Russia strongly in the war.