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Mexico considering reducing oil exports to achieve self-sufficiency in fuels and stop selling oil abroad by 2023. China has asked state refiners to consider pausing exports of gasoline and diesel. Hungary has discussed banning agriculture exports. Russia export bans are coming...
Notice a pattern here. The Fed has a major blind in its view of the supply chain and the inflation stemming from it being transitory. Monetary policy can not force people to buy sanctioned Russian goods. Monetary policy can not force countries to sell energy and food abroad..
We are moving into a new world where procurement of critical resources by governments will be prioritized at any price. Their need to acquire goods without regard for price will exacerbate inflation globally. This will further embed itself into the psyche of citizens. The Fed's..
only real job was to prevent inflation expectations from becoming embedded in the public and to keep inflation well-anchored. With breakeven yields breaking out to new highs, they are failing miserably. Their "power" stemming from their communication tactics has become inept.
We favor a pro-inflation playbook as the Fed remains woefully behind the curve addressing this new economic world order. Sticky inflation will be with us for longer than expected. Own commodities/hard assets, sell bonds, value over growth, bitcoin. @SamanthaLaDuc @LukeGromen
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