Thread by Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
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- Mar 10, 2022
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🧵Two weeks ago, as Vladimir Putin was declaring his vicious war on Ukraine, he called the West an "Empire of Lies." In fact, the Kremlin's disastrous move was itself rooted in lies, misconceptions and giant lapses of expertise & intelligence. 1/ 
2/ Historians will know more about the decision-making process behind the tragic events. To date, this essay by @andrewsweiss & @eugene_rumer best captures Putin's motivation for going into this war. Unfortunately, it turned out to be prophetic. carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/12/ukraine-putin-s-unfinished-business-pub-85771
3/ War preparation was conducted in high secrecy in order to avoid leaks. Instead of a rigorous interagency process, the whole war planning was reduced to a clandestine operation developed by just a handful of people in uniform and the president himself. www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/02/19/alexander-gabuev-writes-from-moscow-on-why-vladimir-putin-...
3a/ Side note: given the secrecy, accuracy of 🇺🇸 intelligence community's predictions (even the public part of it spread through media and official statements) deserves credit, and explains why USG was so reluctant to share sensitive details that could endanger sources & methods.
4/ It looks like even during the planning of the military campaign, there weren't enough generals able to ask "what if" questions that could help to do serious contingency planning and get ready for other scenarios than just a speedy victory of the Russian troops.
5/ Needless to say, the preparation to the Western sanctions response was even more flawed since Putin has kept his economic team entirely in the dark. This @FT piece by @maxseddon & @polinaivanovva accurately captures relaxed mood before the invasion. www.ft.com/content/a2eaba73-cec8-4a0f-b991-7de558bb0ee1
6/ Since 2014 various "sanctions task forces" in the 🇷🇺 government (first led by Igor Shuvalov, then by Anton Siluanov & Andrey Belousov) claimed that they have looked into all possible sanctions scenarios, including Iran & North Korea, and did contingency planning accordingly.
7/ It appears that Putin and his war cabinet have developed a false sense of security by the mere existence of these counter-sanctions plans. Nobody did a proper sanity check, while the economic team looked at doomsdays scenarios as "high impact & nearly zero probability."
8/ Vested interest around import-substitution (think Sergey Chemezov etc.) might be another factor explaining why Putin was lulled by the narrative that 🇷🇺 economy is nearly sanctions-proof, and all it takes is just throwing some more money to fix a few outstanding issues.
9/ As a result, neither the war plan, nor the plan to address the economic fallout of possible Western sanctions was rigorously discussed and carefully vetted. The decision has never been run through a "Slepakov test," to use Russian officials' slang. www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_U7HxOzhWw
10/ The other element of Putin calamitous decision to go to war was a long-standing paradox of the Russian foreign policy: the Kremlin has a more nuanced understanding of China or the Arab World than of its closest neighbors in the post-Soviet space, especially Ukraine.
11/ The reasons are many. To start with, the Russian Empire has never perceived Ukraine as a "colony," and thus has never developed a discipline to study Ukraine as "the Other." When Putin wrote that Russians and Ukrainians are "one people," he actually meant it.
12/ These problematic assumption has led to a giant flaw in the Kremlin's understanding of Ukraine. Hence 🇷🇺 diplomats & spies who didn't bother to learn the language or study the culture, and policymakers operating on stereotypes.
13/ Back in 2014 my former @kommersant colleague Liza Surnacheva (@Schroeding) & I have looked into 🇷🇺 chain of command dealing with fallout of Maidan, and didn't find a single decision-maker with a sophisticated expertise on Ukraine. www.kommersant.ru/doc/2416461
14/ The level of Ukraine expertise in Russia documented by @Schroeding in 2014 was terrifying, and it hasn't improved since. If anything, it only got worse. www.kommersant.ru/doc/2470379
15/ Clandestine nature of Putin's decision-making on national security and deplorable state of Russian expertise on Ukraine were among factors contributing to ruinous decision to start this ugly war - a tragedy for Ukraine, and a catastrophe for Russia.
