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We're told solar and wind future
But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?
Batteries!
Yet
Asia uses 25GWh/minute and has 13GWh of battery storage: enough for just 31 seconds
2030: 9m:55s
After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels
woodmac.com/news/opinion/the-growth-and-growth-of-the-global-energy-storage-market/
But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?
Batteries!
Yet
Asia uses 25GWh/minute and has 13GWh of battery storage: enough for just 31 seconds
2030: 9m:55s
After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels
woodmac.com/news/opinion/the-growth-and-growth-of-the-global-energy-storage-market/
This is similar to what we see in Europe, with batteries able to supply a little more than 1 minute of average electricity consumption now and about 12 minutes in 2030
Lots of people commented suggesting we can fix this
Yes, we can, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup
Solar costs go up 4-7x, from being some of the cheapest electricity to very expensive
www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-h...
Yes, we can, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup
Solar costs go up 4-7x, from being some of the cheapest electricity to very expensive
www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-h...
People suggest that 'it is always windy somewhere', but
1) not sufficient throughput between regions
2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere
depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune
www.ft.com/content/d53b5843-dbe0-4724-8adf-75c66127ea80
1) not sufficient throughput between regions
2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere
depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune
www.ft.com/content/d53b5843-dbe0-4724-8adf-75c66127ea80
How much is a couple of minutes of electricity storage?
Not much
Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (120hr/7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (186hr/11,160minutes)
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab91e9/pdf
Not much
Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (120hr/7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (186hr/11,160minutes)
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab91e9/pdf
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Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein
·
Jan 3, 2022
Lots of great points by @BjornLomborg about the inability of batteries to solve the intermittency problems of solar+wind. Another point: To actually replace fossil fuels you'd also need electricity/batteries for the vast majority of today's energy that's is not electricity.