Thread
1/ Much is said about paper hands who sell at the first sign of weakness.

But how long is someone willing to wait.....to realize losses? πŸ‘€

Let me show you some charts that you've never seen before, courtesy of the WIZARDS on the @glassnode data science team. πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
2/ This is daily spent coin volume by age band, colored by P&L outcome. Focusing on the 2014-2017 market.

πŸ”΄Red indicates spenders *in loss* that have coins aged the denoted time.

People sat on #BTC for OVER THREE YEARS just to sell at a loss when price neared their cost basis.
3/ Same chart, Spent Volume Age Bands colored by P&L, focused on 2017-2020.

Again, a bunch of people bought the top in 2017 and held for OVER THREE YEARS just to sell at a loss *in a bull market*.

Every one of these stone handed loss takers saw price rip after they bailed.
4/ Same data in reverse- this is BUYING volume colored by their *eventual sale P&L*.

This shows where coins sold in loss originated from.

Look how much volume bought at the 2014 top was held the entire bear, only to be sold for a loss YEARS later into market strength.
5/ Think about the gut wrenching pain:

You buy the 2017 top. You hold #BTC in a loss for multiple years.

*Finally* it comes back to your entry price, and you get out "scratch" and wipe the sweat from your brow.

Then, price rips 15%. Then 40%. Then 100%.

ABSOLUTELY GUTTED.
6/ What are my key learnings here?

1. Never underestimate another trader's willingness to endure pain.

2. Humans have a natural attraction to loss.

3. And, I guess, it's obvious people will buy and hold something for years without bothering to learn more about it.
Mentions
See All