MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)

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2024Mar 15

What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? A surgeon did 60 operations with 0 failure. What's her or his failure rate? I didn't realize that the trick wasn't in the literature until John Hughes wrote a paper in Statistics and Probability Letters based on my blog post presenting the idea.

Introduction

0:00

The Trick

1:37

Fair Value

2:49

Coverage Probability

3:25

Transcript

Follow along using the transcript.

N N Taleb's Probability Moocs

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MINI LECTURE 18: How to build a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo simulations

N N Taleb's Probability Moocs

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7.1K views 1 year ago

MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)

Chapters View all

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The Trick

The Trick

The Trick

Fair Value

Fair Value

Fair Value

Coverage Probability

Coverage Probability

Coverage Probability

Conclusion

Conclusion

Conclusion

N N Taleb's Probability Moocs

MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)

Comments 24

Chapters

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The Trick

The Trick

The Trick

Fair Value

Fair Value

Fair Value

Coverage Probability

Coverage Probability

Coverage Probability

Conclusion

Conclusion

Conclusion

Description

Chapters View all

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

The Trick

The Trick

The Trick

Fair Value

Fair Value

Fair Value

Coverage Probability

Coverage Probability

Coverage Probability

N N Taleb's Probability Moocs

Transcript

MINI LECTURE 18: How to build a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo simulations

Chapters

Chapters