"My guess is that he’ll discern some “emergency” in 2028 that requires him to remain in office past the expiration of his term. He could have tried that in 2020 too, but that would have been a high-stakes gamble. For one thing, he believed he would win a second term fair and square at the polls (and nearly did), making a heavy-handed power grab unnecessary. For another, he might have sensed that he lacked the critical mass of devout loyalists in prominent positions needed to carry out such a plot successfully.

None of that will be true in 2028. His administration will be staffed to the gills with diehard cronies and, being term-limited, he’ll have nothing to lose by contriving an extraordinary excuse to try to stay in power. It won’t be a third term so much as an indefinite continuation of his second. As it happens, a close friend and adviser of his has a bit of personal experience with that."