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The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity Audio CD – March 24, 2020

by Toby Ord (Author)
4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 937 ratings
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From one of the worlds leading moral voices, this urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanitys future is the central challenge of our time. If all goes well, human history is just beginning. Our species could survive for billions of yearsenough time to end disease, poverty, and injustice, and to flourish in ways unimaginable today. But this vast future is at risk. With the advent of nuclear weapons, humanity entered a new age, where we face existential catastrophesthose from which we could never come back. Since then, these dangers have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pathogens and unaligned artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety, it will soon be too late. Drawing on over a decade of research, The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face. It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity, showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time. And it points the way forward, to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity. An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action, Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council, the UK Prime Ministers Office, and the World Bank on the greatest challenges facing humanity. In The Precipice, he offers a startling reassessment of human history, the future we are failing to protect, and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last.
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  1. Print length
    1 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Recorded Books, Inc. and Blackstone Publishing
  4. Publication date
    March 24, 2020
  5. ISBN-10
    166448891X
  6. ISBN-13
    978-1664488915
  7. See all details
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Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Recorded Books, Inc. and Blackstone Publishing; Unabridged edition (March 24, 2020)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Audio CD ‏ : ‎ 1 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 166448891X
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1664488915
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 937 ratings

About the author

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Toby Ord

Toby Ord

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Toby Ord is a philosopher at Oxford University, working on the big picture questions facing humanity. His earlier work explored the ethics of global poverty, leading him to make a lifelong pledge to donate 10% of his income to the most effective charities helping improve the world. He created a society, Giving What We Can, for people to join this mission, and together its members have pledged over $1.5 billion. He then broadened these ideas by co-founding the Effective Altruism movement in which thousands of people are using reason and evidence to help the lives of others as much as possible.

His current research is on risks that threaten human extinction or the permanent collapse of civilization, and on how to safeguard humanity through these dangers, which he considers to be among the most pressing and neglected issues we face. In his new book, The Precipice, he explains the risks we face, the stakes for humanity, and how we can find a path forward. Toby has advised the World Health Organization, the World Bank, the World Economic Forum, the US National Intelligence Council, and the UK Prime Minister's Office.

tobyord.com

theprecipice.com

givingwhatwecan.org

Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
4.3 out of 5
937 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Teach1
5.0 out of 5 stars How to keep our house in order
Reviewed in the United States on December 9, 2022
Verified Purchase
Philosophy is, generally, considered a very dry subject, and one only fit for academia with people arguing about very fine details of history, ethics and morals.

Our young people rarely learn about the consequences of making minor changes to personal, group or country wide thoughts. Increasingly, as adults, we don't have the time to 'think' a lot about the consequences of our life styles, our political decisions or what we allow our elected representatives to do in our names for - and to us.

Toby Ord is an extraordinary scientist, and philosopher; he is also a relatively young person who has, on our behalf, done an extraordinary amount of work and research to make complex ideas accessible to most of us, regardless of age, education or culture. Increasingly his analysis is being sought by governments, corporations and Think Tanks pondering the consequences facing Humanity, Planet Earth, Communities everywhere, Families and each of us, as 8 billion people and corporations introduce technology quicker and quicker - all while our climate changes are happening with unpredictable aggregate effect.

The Precipice is a 400+ resource that is accessible, readable and compelling; it's a book that each of us can read slowly and it has useful ideas and information that may help all of us, and our children, lead more peaceful and productive lives.

On the subject of the AI technology, and how it may move us, help us or control us, he has this to say (p. 146-147): For the most damaging people in history have not been the strongest. Hitler, Stalin and Genghis Khan achieved absolute control over large parts of the world using words to convince millions of people to win the requisite physical contests. So long as an AI system can entice or coerce people to do its physical bidding, it wouldn't need robots at all......The most realistic scenarios may involve subtle and non-human behaviors which we can neither predict, nor truly grasp. And these behaviors may be aimed at weak points in our civilization to which we are currently blind...

The AI section is interestingly shedding much needed light on how complex commercial systems already are bending entire countries to their will by controlling and monitoring our media, purchase habits and cell phone use. Mr. Ord has shown us that philosophy may need to be re-introduced into our schools and Book Clubs, as a matter of survival of the species.
19 people found this helpful
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Jan Dziekan
4.0 out of 5 stars Mind the Gap
Reviewed in the United States on May 27, 2020
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Existential risk… It is not a popular subject. I suspect that most of us don’t factor it in thinking of our own lives. Mired in day-to-day bustling, we live as if tomorrow is always to come. We rarely contemplate the impact and importance of our actions, let alone the dynamics of our societies. Yet, Toby Ord invites us to take a perspective even further from the mundane - a perspective of the whole humanity itself, in a timescale stretching to infinity. Through such lenses, the author argues, it becomes evident that our species is risking an unacceptable chance of irrecoverable collapse or even extinction. Those catastrophic outcomes are symbolised by the eponymous precipice, which humanity must avoid on its path toward a better future.

Toby believes that our times are special, because only recently (in historic terms) humans possessed technologies which allow us to destroy ourselves. The increase of power is not met with heightened wisdom - we are still narrow-minded creatures, risking nuclear war over national squabbles, racing in unregulated biotechnology and AI research, polluting our planet in the name of next quarter’s profits. It is not moral to jeopardize the lives of untold future generations, just because we are too short-sighted to notice that we owe them the chance. Recklessness may prevent us from realising the true potential of humanity, “probably the only complex and significant part of the universe”.

If we manage to pull through, future historians will look back at our period as the pivotal age of humanity embracing the long-term, wise course. This book hopes to lay foundation for such a change, by identifying existential risks and proposing methods to tackle them. It seems that the highest risk is man-made, so there is an expectation that countries with better aligned governments should spell unimpeded progress and prosperity to all.

I understand why this book was written and what it tries to accomplish. I admire the research and fact-checking. More than a few times I have ruminated over the book’s passages. However, I am afraid that the overall tone is not very persuasive. It lacks compelling stories which could inspire future efforts, leans heavily toward statistics, sometimes reading like a project proposal for management of a risk portfolio. Nevertheless, it is worth a try, as it offers unusual perspective and intriguing insights.

My last two cents - in (tongue in cheek) defense of short-termism. Toby Ord urges to coordinate in order to increase the chance of humanity fulfilling its destiny. He defends it as moral. But, wouldn’t it be an even more astounding feat if our civilisation thrived without such efforts? We are a product of “let’s promote what works now” evolution, and our societies emerged from collective actions of usually self-centered individuals. Perhaps it is our way, and the beauty comes from our flaws. Do we really have to optimise and max out?
28 people found this helpful
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Jack Miller
5.0 out of 5 stars Stunningly great condition!
Reviewed in the United States on March 25, 2024
Verified Purchase
I about dropped my teeth when I saw the like-new condition of this book! Whoever “used” this book must have been wearing soft cotton gloves! No marks, highlighting, stains, etc. I am about to read it after I catch my breath.
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Top reviews from other countries

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TrekPyrenees
2.0 out of 5 stars Un rollo
Reviewed in Spain on December 6, 2023
Verified Purchase
No ho vaig poder acabar. L'estil d'escriptura de l'autor no enganxa.
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Daniil Rayu
5.0 out of 5 stars Much more than expected
Reviewed in Germany on August 9, 2023
Verified Purchase
This is a very hands-on approach to the doomsday scenarios. It discusses our moral obligation to keep humanity thriving and actually goes over the probability of these rhings happening.
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Barry
5.0 out of 5 stars Infinity
Reviewed in Canada on July 30, 2020
Verified Purchase
Since the particles of infinity have memory and retain experience, and of the potential of doing the right thing through love, it’s possible to simultaneously bind without capturing and support without limiting. Therefore, infinite potential has a constant, which is love, that can ignite a quality and a quantity of these particles.
4 people found this helpful
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Maxime Riché
5.0 out of 5 stars Un livre essentiel pour comprendre les risques auquel fait face l'humanité
Reviewed in France on April 3, 2020
Verified Purchase
Captivant. En lisant ce livre, on prend conscience des enjeux des siècles actuels.
L'humanité, va-t-elle réaliser son magnifique potentiel dans les millénaires à venir ?
Des éléments sérieux pour comprendre les différents risques et amener chacun à contribuer à les réduire.
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Ben Dixon
5.0 out of 5 stars One of my top few books of recent decades
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 6, 2020
Verified Purchase
The Precipice is an absolute delight. I came from a background of being interested in tackling climate change, and I've found Toby Ord and Nick Bostrom's thinking on this topic fascinating and it's significantly changed my career. The Precipice collates a broad range of ideas, and surveys things from asteroid strikes, through to climate change, civilisational collapse, and risks from emerging technologies. There's a very interesting section on combining risk factors, and guidance on what some of the points with the highest leverage might be. I think it's essential reading for both young adults thinking of how they can help the world, and for experienced professionals and policymakers in places where they can start to shape these outcomes now.

What strikes me the most about the book is the incredibly smooth text, with earnest calls for people with 'keen intellect' to go forth and tackle these challenges, because the future could be great. It's clear that Toby Ord has poured so much into this book over the past few years, and the text remains calm, honest, persistent, and inspirational. I ordered five copies and will be sharing them with my friends and family.
30 people found this helpful
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