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Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century
Getting to grips with the overlapping geopolitical, economic, and political crises faced by Western democratic societies in the 2020s.
The 21st century has brought a powerful tide of geopolitical, economic, and democratic shocks. Their fallout has led central banks to create over $25 trillion of new money, brought about a new age of geopolitical competition, destabilised the Middle East, ruptured the European Union, and exposed old political fault lines in the United States.
Hard Times in the 21st Century is a long history of this present political moment. It recounts three histories - one about geopolitics, one about the world economy, and one about western democracies - and explains how in the years of political disorder prior to the pandemic the disruption in each became one big story. It shows how much of this turbulence originated in problems generated by fossil-fuel energies, and it explains why as the green transition takes place the long-standing predicaments energy invariably shapes will remain in place.
The 21st century has brought a powerful tide of geopolitical, economic, and democratic shocks. Their fallout has led central banks to create over $25 trillion of new money, brought about a new age of geopolitical competition, destabilised the Middle East, ruptured the European Union, and exposed old political fault lines in the United States.
Hard Times in the 21st Century is a long history of this present political moment. It recounts three histories - one about geopolitics, one about the world economy, and one about western democracies - and explains how in the years of political disorder prior to the pandemic the disruption in each became one big story. It shows how much of this turbulence originated in problems generated by fossil-fuel energies, and it explains why as the green transition takes place the long-standing predicaments energy invariably shapes will remain in place.
384 pages, Hardcover
First published February 24, 2022
About the author
Helen Thompson
4 books35 followersHelen Thompson is Professor of Political Economy in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge, UK. She is currently principal investigator on a research project on austerity and its consequences within the EU, which is financed by the Philomathia Foundation.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 71 reviews
July 10, 2022
Confused — Disorder (Helen Thompson)
I read non-fiction because I want to learn something. A clear, concise, and convincing argument should be made. I want to walk away thinking, “yes — that makes sense”.
The grand epistemic framework Thompson starts with is Rashomon-like. There is no one singular narrative to global disorder in the twenty-first century — but several that cross-over with each other and that we must understand. I’m on board with this and — compared to the previous book I read (Gary Gerstle’s tome on the Neoliberal world order) — refreshing.
Let me start with the positives — what we can reasonably learn. Energy and geography are really, really important. We cannot understand twentieth century history without understanding oil. And we can’t understand twenty-first century history without it either. Thompson gestures at something she calls “political entropy”: “the attempt to establish and maintain political order necessarily produces the seeds of future disorder.” So the geopolitics around oil matters long-term. Thompson even explicitly points out that many of the “Neoliberal” reforms can be understood as energy policy: US government price controls and rationing damaging the economy in the 70s. This is a refreshing perspective and one I am glad to have read. We even get a justification for the second Iraq war in this context (allowing the US to ease up on sanctions so as to increase oil supply, and save some blood and treasure). The first part (of three) of Thompson’s book is all about oil and geopolitics. It’s the only part you should read.
Unfortunately, the book completely goes off the rails at this point. The biggest sin is that the structure of any argument (assuming there is one) is disordered and the prose is laboured. Perhaps Thompson was making some literary and rhetorical point here — reflecting global disorder in the disorder of the book.
The entire book reads like a delirious play-by-play. This happened, then this happened, then this happened (jump back 50 years). A goat farted in Germany, so this happened, then this happened, then this happened, then this happened (jump forward 25 years). This happened, this happened, remember that goat? We’ll talk about him again in 100 pages, then this happened. Halfway though part 2 (on economics) I was close to tearing my hair out. This structure is insane and not conducive to making any strong argument at all. Better to simply read the news, because there is next to nothing to be learnt here. The analysis is frankly shallow, but we are flooded with enough detail so that it appears we are learning something.
Here’s an example. We discuss China’s “Malacca dilemma” — that much of the oil supplied to China goes through the strait of Malacca — briefly. We then drop it, and then pick it up a few chapters later. It seems to me that the point is that nations want to secure energy independence and reduce vulnerability. Or maximise policy space, sovereignty, however you want to phrase it. I don’t understand why Thompson seems so averse to being clear and concise on this point. It’s an enduring theme throughout part 1. It’s not some allergy to totalising narratives either — China was “seeking to diminish the Malacca dilemma by turning much of Eurasia into an economic sphere of influence” (at once both vague and totalising).
Once I began to notice this, I also began to notice how shockingly poor the language is. Prime example: “But the difficulties for NATO went beyond the strategic ramifications of pipeline routes to the source of European imports: so long as the United States can compete with Russia to export gas to Europe, the large founder EU states’ dependency on Russian gas makes NATO unstable.” The subject is complex enough, no need to reflect that in the prose. Sometimes, even basic mathematics slips beyond our grasp: “American oil imports […] were 250 per cent lower”. How, exactly, do positive numbers fall by more than 100 per cent? Basic factual and calculation errors like this likely plague the book but by this point I was beyond caring.
Finally, the time spent on explaining economic concepts to the reader compared to everything else is out of balance. Thompson does not ground the reader in why the trade balance is important and why it drives imbalances within the EU (i.e. the Euro allows Germany to keep its exchange rate “artificially” low, subsidising exports, and the deal is to then redistribute this to the EU). Forget that — Thompson does not even ground the reader on what trade balances even are and how they interact with exchange rates. We do not discuss the impossible trinity (fixed exchange rates, free movement of capital, independent monetary policy: choose two), a pretty fundamental concept in international economics. Yet we are concerned with exactly these things. Thompson introduces LIBOR, repo markets, so on and so forth with zero introduction to the reader. But we spend entire chapters on Lincoln, Polybius, Machiavelli, Rome, etc. in part 3.
Personally, I think this book is a waste of time. Some claims in the book are suspect (e.g. that green energy is an issue in the US because... China manufactures stuff?), some framing is suspect (e.g. around QE or the democratic deficit -- though not a term used in the book -- around the ECB or the EU generally), and swathes of generally enlightening theory (e.g. that of diffused gains but concentrated losses from trade liberalisation) are jettisoned for more details about what the British PM of the day ate for breakfast.
I read non-fiction because I want to learn something. A clear, concise, and convincing argument should be made. I want to walk away thinking, “yes — that makes sense”.
The grand epistemic framework Thompson starts with is Rashomon-like. There is no one singular narrative to global disorder in the twenty-first century — but several that cross-over with each other and that we must understand. I’m on board with this and — compared to the previous book I read (Gary Gerstle’s tome on the Neoliberal world order) — refreshing.
Let me start with the positives — what we can reasonably learn. Energy and geography are really, really important. We cannot understand twentieth century history without understanding oil. And we can’t understand twenty-first century history without it either. Thompson gestures at something she calls “political entropy”: “the attempt to establish and maintain political order necessarily produces the seeds of future disorder.” So the geopolitics around oil matters long-term. Thompson even explicitly points out that many of the “Neoliberal” reforms can be understood as energy policy: US government price controls and rationing damaging the economy in the 70s. This is a refreshing perspective and one I am glad to have read. We even get a justification for the second Iraq war in this context (allowing the US to ease up on sanctions so as to increase oil supply, and save some blood and treasure). The first part (of three) of Thompson’s book is all about oil and geopolitics. It’s the only part you should read.
Unfortunately, the book completely goes off the rails at this point. The biggest sin is that the structure of any argument (assuming there is one) is disordered and the prose is laboured. Perhaps Thompson was making some literary and rhetorical point here — reflecting global disorder in the disorder of the book.
The entire book reads like a delirious play-by-play. This happened, then this happened, then this happened (jump back 50 years). A goat farted in Germany, so this happened, then this happened, then this happened, then this happened (jump forward 25 years). This happened, this happened, remember that goat? We’ll talk about him again in 100 pages, then this happened. Halfway though part 2 (on economics) I was close to tearing my hair out. This structure is insane and not conducive to making any strong argument at all. Better to simply read the news, because there is next to nothing to be learnt here. The analysis is frankly shallow, but we are flooded with enough detail so that it appears we are learning something.
Here’s an example. We discuss China’s “Malacca dilemma” — that much of the oil supplied to China goes through the strait of Malacca — briefly. We then drop it, and then pick it up a few chapters later. It seems to me that the point is that nations want to secure energy independence and reduce vulnerability. Or maximise policy space, sovereignty, however you want to phrase it. I don’t understand why Thompson seems so averse to being clear and concise on this point. It’s an enduring theme throughout part 1. It’s not some allergy to totalising narratives either — China was “seeking to diminish the Malacca dilemma by turning much of Eurasia into an economic sphere of influence” (at once both vague and totalising).
Once I began to notice this, I also began to notice how shockingly poor the language is. Prime example: “But the difficulties for NATO went beyond the strategic ramifications of pipeline routes to the source of European imports: so long as the United States can compete with Russia to export gas to Europe, the large founder EU states’ dependency on Russian gas makes NATO unstable.” The subject is complex enough, no need to reflect that in the prose. Sometimes, even basic mathematics slips beyond our grasp: “American oil imports […] were 250 per cent lower”. How, exactly, do positive numbers fall by more than 100 per cent? Basic factual and calculation errors like this likely plague the book but by this point I was beyond caring.
Finally, the time spent on explaining economic concepts to the reader compared to everything else is out of balance. Thompson does not ground the reader in why the trade balance is important and why it drives imbalances within the EU (i.e. the Euro allows Germany to keep its exchange rate “artificially” low, subsidising exports, and the deal is to then redistribute this to the EU). Forget that — Thompson does not even ground the reader on what trade balances even are and how they interact with exchange rates. We do not discuss the impossible trinity (fixed exchange rates, free movement of capital, independent monetary policy: choose two), a pretty fundamental concept in international economics. Yet we are concerned with exactly these things. Thompson introduces LIBOR, repo markets, so on and so forth with zero introduction to the reader. But we spend entire chapters on Lincoln, Polybius, Machiavelli, Rome, etc. in part 3.
Personally, I think this book is a waste of time. Some claims in the book are suspect (e.g. that green energy is an issue in the US because... China manufactures stuff?), some framing is suspect (e.g. around QE or the democratic deficit -- though not a term used in the book -- around the ECB or the EU generally), and swathes of generally enlightening theory (e.g. that of diffused gains but concentrated losses from trade liberalisation) are jettisoned for more details about what the British PM of the day ate for breakfast.
November 19, 2023
Like others, I became aware of Helen Thompson’s astounding breadth of knowledge and insight about international political economy through her contributions to the long-running podcast ‘Taking Politics’, which has now sadly ended after six years.
‘Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century’ reflects not only on the turbulent years covered by that podcast - including 2016’s twin earthquakes of the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump - but traces those events way back to a series of long-standing fault-lines, particularly related to energy.
“In a search for a comprehensive explanation of the last decade’s disruption, this book starts from the premise that several histories are necessary to identify the causal forces at work and a conviction that these histories must overlap,” Thompson writes in her introduction.
So the first history she explores is a geopolitical one, revolving around energy and beginning with the rise of the US as a great power at the time of the emergence of oil as the chief energy source, replacing coal. The second history is economic and starts with the breakdown of the post WWII Bretton Woods monetary system in the early 70s and the emergence of fiat currencies. The third and final history is about democracies and how the geopolitical and economic changes of the 70s pressured democratic politics.
This is a densely told history. Thompson as a historian focuses mostly on the particulars and resists the temptation to force events into a grand narrative. She is surprisingly, at least to my untutored view, dismissive of the widely promulgated idea that the ideological ascendancy of neoliberalism since the 70s explains the disorder we face today and instead puts energy politics front and centre.
“Quite simply, without taking energy seriously there is no persuasive story that can be told about the trajectories of economies from the 1970s through to the 1980s, or their political consequences, including those that led to the euro’s creation,” she writes.
Her analysis of the breakdown in democracy is also idiosyncratic, using the framework of cycles of accumulating “aristocratic or democratic excess” to explain how forms of government become unstable through time.
For instance, the rise of the populists and nationalists in recent years can be seen as a rebalancing back from the “aristocratic excess” of the 1980s and 1990s when technocratic economists and bond markets held sway over democratic governments.
This isn’t a hopeful book. Thompson, as anyone familiar with her matter-of-fact observations on the Talking Politics podcast will know, has a tendency to look for the grit in oyster rather than the pearl. But her insights here, particularly in relation to energy geopolitics, explain much of the predicament we are now in.
The crisis in the Ukraine, which has broken just as her book was published, if anything strengthens her case about the centrality of energy to international power plays - and its likely continuing dominance in the coming decades as the world slowly weans itself off fossil fuels.
Alongside the US-based British historian Adam Tooze, Thompson is perhaps the most clear-eyed analyst of international political economy today and certainly one that anyone interested in the disorder we now face should read.
Highly recommended.
‘Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century’ reflects not only on the turbulent years covered by that podcast - including 2016’s twin earthquakes of the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump - but traces those events way back to a series of long-standing fault-lines, particularly related to energy.
“In a search for a comprehensive explanation of the last decade’s disruption, this book starts from the premise that several histories are necessary to identify the causal forces at work and a conviction that these histories must overlap,” Thompson writes in her introduction.
So the first history she explores is a geopolitical one, revolving around energy and beginning with the rise of the US as a great power at the time of the emergence of oil as the chief energy source, replacing coal. The second history is economic and starts with the breakdown of the post WWII Bretton Woods monetary system in the early 70s and the emergence of fiat currencies. The third and final history is about democracies and how the geopolitical and economic changes of the 70s pressured democratic politics.
This is a densely told history. Thompson as a historian focuses mostly on the particulars and resists the temptation to force events into a grand narrative. She is surprisingly, at least to my untutored view, dismissive of the widely promulgated idea that the ideological ascendancy of neoliberalism since the 70s explains the disorder we face today and instead puts energy politics front and centre.
“Quite simply, without taking energy seriously there is no persuasive story that can be told about the trajectories of economies from the 1970s through to the 1980s, or their political consequences, including those that led to the euro’s creation,” she writes.
Her analysis of the breakdown in democracy is also idiosyncratic, using the framework of cycles of accumulating “aristocratic or democratic excess” to explain how forms of government become unstable through time.
For instance, the rise of the populists and nationalists in recent years can be seen as a rebalancing back from the “aristocratic excess” of the 1980s and 1990s when technocratic economists and bond markets held sway over democratic governments.
This isn’t a hopeful book. Thompson, as anyone familiar with her matter-of-fact observations on the Talking Politics podcast will know, has a tendency to look for the grit in oyster rather than the pearl. But her insights here, particularly in relation to energy geopolitics, explain much of the predicament we are now in.
The crisis in the Ukraine, which has broken just as her book was published, if anything strengthens her case about the centrality of energy to international power plays - and its likely continuing dominance in the coming decades as the world slowly weans itself off fossil fuels.
Alongside the US-based British historian Adam Tooze, Thompson is perhaps the most clear-eyed analyst of international political economy today and certainly one that anyone interested in the disorder we now face should read.
Highly recommended.
March 6, 2022
Helen Thompson offers a thought provoking examination of how political democracies and the world in general have been buffetted by a series of systemic shocks creating near intractable dilemmas.
The book covers a great deal of ground. The first section emphasises the role that oil consumption has had on the choices policymakers can make. She offers a particularly interesting history of how the Suez crisis shaped the choices facing european politicians and how this created a dependency on Russian exports which obviously created lasting divisions. Oil remade the geopolitics of the 20th century and I enjoyed her history of the attempts goverments made to control this resource and the subsequent challenges this created - both for energy exporters and importers.
The book examines the global political economy with an emphasis on how dollar has become even more important in global transactions weakening American monetary power over America's domestic economy while magnifying the importance of its decisions on foreign nations which need prompt help in tough times which is not always forthcoming. I am not an economist so I am not really able to be super critical of her claims but they seemed reasonable and I found her arguments interesting, especially the critical role of eurodollar markets and the difficult strictures the eurozone is in.
These strictures are a recurring theme and a prominent throughline of the book made explicit in the final section on western democracies. Democracies in general are now extremely susceptible to international capital flowing in and out. Thanks to globalization supply chains are more spread out leaving them vulnerable to disruption. Most democracies are dependent on foreign energy sources. The eurozone nations are unable to contest economic policies as a result of the ECB's mandate and euro membership and so on. These strictures create democratic frustrations that either cannot be answered at all (monetary policy in Italy) or can be addressed but only via long term electorally unpalatable choices (green energy/net neutrality). Political crisis and repeated democratic disappointment is the result of these strictures.
Disorder brings these issues and the associated dilemmas into focus while remaining readable and well sourced throughout.
The book covers a great deal of ground. The first section emphasises the role that oil consumption has had on the choices policymakers can make. She offers a particularly interesting history of how the Suez crisis shaped the choices facing european politicians and how this created a dependency on Russian exports which obviously created lasting divisions. Oil remade the geopolitics of the 20th century and I enjoyed her history of the attempts goverments made to control this resource and the subsequent challenges this created - both for energy exporters and importers.
The book examines the global political economy with an emphasis on how dollar has become even more important in global transactions weakening American monetary power over America's domestic economy while magnifying the importance of its decisions on foreign nations which need prompt help in tough times which is not always forthcoming. I am not an economist so I am not really able to be super critical of her claims but they seemed reasonable and I found her arguments interesting, especially the critical role of eurodollar markets and the difficult strictures the eurozone is in.
These strictures are a recurring theme and a prominent throughline of the book made explicit in the final section on western democracies. Democracies in general are now extremely susceptible to international capital flowing in and out. Thanks to globalization supply chains are more spread out leaving them vulnerable to disruption. Most democracies are dependent on foreign energy sources. The eurozone nations are unable to contest economic policies as a result of the ECB's mandate and euro membership and so on. These strictures create democratic frustrations that either cannot be answered at all (monetary policy in Italy) or can be addressed but only via long term electorally unpalatable choices (green energy/net neutrality). Political crisis and repeated democratic disappointment is the result of these strictures.
Disorder brings these issues and the associated dilemmas into focus while remaining readable and well sourced throughout.
October 25, 2023
I always try to give books a fair shake, but sometimes, it’s just not meant to be, and unfortunately, this was one of those times. I started it with enthusiasm (yes, I’m a bit of a nerd when it comes to socio-political analyses), but ended up waving the white flag before reaching the end.
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room first: the writing style. Oh boy, it was a slog. I’ve read plenty of academic papers and verbose essays in my time, but this was something else. The prose was so dense and cumbersome that it felt like wading through a swamp with weights on my feet.
Now, I won't say the book was without its merits. Thompson clearly knows her stuff and there were pockets of insight scattered throughout, offering a keen perspective on the 21st-century chaos. There were chapters, or let’s be precise, certain sections within chapters, where I thought, “Okay, Helen, now we’re getting somewhere!” But those moments were fleeting, and I'd soon find myself lost in the thickets of her convoluted prose.
Also, the title, "Disorder", seemed quite fitting, not just for the topic at hand but for the structure of the book itself. It felt like the chapters were jumping from one topic to the next with very little to bind them. This lack of coherent flow only added to the difficulty of wading through the content.
But here’s the thing: I don’t mind working hard to grasp a concept, but the reward needs to be worth it. In other words, if I’m going to spend my precious reading time decoding a challenging text, I’d better walk away with some groundbreaking revelations or at least some unique viewpoints. Thompson's book, however, despite its moments of clarity, often regurgitated ideas and themes that have been discussed elsewhere, and in more digestible formats.
There were some commendable parts, don't get me wrong. The deep dives into specific global events and their intertwined complexities showcased Thompson's in-depth research and understanding. I just wish these insights weren’t buried under layers of heavy language and disjointed narratives.
To give credit where credit is due, the book does offer a valuable perspective on the uncertainties and upheavals of the modern age. For readers patient enough to dissect each sentence and dedicated enough to piece together the scattered puzzle of Thompson's thoughts, there might be some golden nuggets to be found.
But for casual readers or even folks like me who enjoy a good socio-political analysis without the unnecessary linguistic acrobatics? Maybe give it a pass. Or at least, be prepared with a strong coffee and an even stronger will to push through.
In the end, “Disorder” felt less like a guided tour through the intricacies of the 21st century and more like being handed a box of puzzle pieces without the final picture to reference. And as much as I wanted to love it, I simply didn't have the energy or motivation to piece it all together.
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room first: the writing style. Oh boy, it was a slog. I’ve read plenty of academic papers and verbose essays in my time, but this was something else. The prose was so dense and cumbersome that it felt like wading through a swamp with weights on my feet.
Now, I won't say the book was without its merits. Thompson clearly knows her stuff and there were pockets of insight scattered throughout, offering a keen perspective on the 21st-century chaos. There were chapters, or let’s be precise, certain sections within chapters, where I thought, “Okay, Helen, now we’re getting somewhere!” But those moments were fleeting, and I'd soon find myself lost in the thickets of her convoluted prose.
Also, the title, "Disorder", seemed quite fitting, not just for the topic at hand but for the structure of the book itself. It felt like the chapters were jumping from one topic to the next with very little to bind them. This lack of coherent flow only added to the difficulty of wading through the content.
But here’s the thing: I don’t mind working hard to grasp a concept, but the reward needs to be worth it. In other words, if I’m going to spend my precious reading time decoding a challenging text, I’d better walk away with some groundbreaking revelations or at least some unique viewpoints. Thompson's book, however, despite its moments of clarity, often regurgitated ideas and themes that have been discussed elsewhere, and in more digestible formats.
There were some commendable parts, don't get me wrong. The deep dives into specific global events and their intertwined complexities showcased Thompson's in-depth research and understanding. I just wish these insights weren’t buried under layers of heavy language and disjointed narratives.
To give credit where credit is due, the book does offer a valuable perspective on the uncertainties and upheavals of the modern age. For readers patient enough to dissect each sentence and dedicated enough to piece together the scattered puzzle of Thompson's thoughts, there might be some golden nuggets to be found.
But for casual readers or even folks like me who enjoy a good socio-political analysis without the unnecessary linguistic acrobatics? Maybe give it a pass. Or at least, be prepared with a strong coffee and an even stronger will to push through.
In the end, “Disorder” felt less like a guided tour through the intricacies of the 21st century and more like being handed a box of puzzle pieces without the final picture to reference. And as much as I wanted to love it, I simply didn't have the energy or motivation to piece it all together.
March 27, 2022
I know Helen Thompson from one of my favourite podcasts, Talking Politics (which sadly has ended recently). She’s an extremely knowledgeable scholar so it was no question I would read her book as soon as it comes out.
She has managed to see through all the complexities of 21st century global politics through the accurate description of three key topics: energy security, economy and democratic politics. I must admit I had difficulties at times in the economy part but I admired reading her storytelling on geopolitics (energy security).
Her style is very factual no direct judgments or critics without objectivity. This makes the book accessible to everyone regardless of where you lean in politics. Nevertheless, this exact factually descriptive style requires constant high level attention from the reader as the pages are dense with loads of information.
A must read for everyone who wants to know how we have got here and what are the upcoming challenges in global politics!
She has managed to see through all the complexities of 21st century global politics through the accurate description of three key topics: energy security, economy and democratic politics. I must admit I had difficulties at times in the economy part but I admired reading her storytelling on geopolitics (energy security).
Her style is very factual no direct judgments or critics without objectivity. This makes the book accessible to everyone regardless of where you lean in politics. Nevertheless, this exact factually descriptive style requires constant high level attention from the reader as the pages are dense with loads of information.
A must read for everyone who wants to know how we have got here and what are the upcoming challenges in global politics!
June 2, 2022
The best long durée book that analyzes 21st century "disorder" since Tooze's Crashed. I particularly liked the energy-based reading of geopolitics that has a solid historical foundation and thus is essential to understand the conflicts materialized around the Russian war in Ukraine, for example.
One small remark that I have, which is not in itself a criticism, is that the book is North-Atlantic centred, and even Chinese development is read through Western lenses. But to make it differently would require a book at least twice as large.
One small remark that I have, which is not in itself a criticism, is that the book is North-Atlantic centred, and even Chinese development is read through Western lenses. But to make it differently would require a book at least twice as large.
December 23, 2023
Generally I think Helen Thompson is amazing but this book was soooo dense with mostly unexplained macro economic stuff and hyperspecific historical references that I really couldn't follow most of it :((
September 3, 2022
This book appraises rising instability and fragility in domestic settings in the West and in the global political economy. It offers histories in three overlapping spheres – geopolitical (focused largely on fossil fuels); economic, with global finance in the foreground; and representative democratic politics, whose decay is hastened by forces at play in the first two spheres.
Thompson frames her analysis in terms of material drivers – control over money, credit, arms, fossil fuels and to a modest extent, the absence of control over the climate breakdown. In the foreground is coercive power, yet the roles of non-material drivers, norms and goals, go largely unmentioned. Neoliberalism, politico-cultural strivings, chauvinisms and other kind of idea-driven politics remain offstage. She trenchantly evaluates the roles of powerful institutions like the IMF and central banks at the behest of Western interests, but not the orthodoxies they insist upon. (Fortunately, however, she does footnote important books about those matters by Slobodian and by Tooze.) Yet while foregoing additional ways to fortify the arguments, her materialist / realist account remains compelling.
In 2008 Thompson published an important (but evidently neglected) book Might, right, prosperity and consent: representative democracy and the international economy 1919-2001. That book’s account of how major powers curtailed, distorted or simply demolished democracies from outside, in large part through international institutions, foreshadows major lines of argument in Disorder. Taken together, these two books explain the fields of forces that worsen inequality, diminish democracy and thus continue to generate yet more disorder.
Thompson frames her analysis in terms of material drivers – control over money, credit, arms, fossil fuels and to a modest extent, the absence of control over the climate breakdown. In the foreground is coercive power, yet the roles of non-material drivers, norms and goals, go largely unmentioned. Neoliberalism, politico-cultural strivings, chauvinisms and other kind of idea-driven politics remain offstage. She trenchantly evaluates the roles of powerful institutions like the IMF and central banks at the behest of Western interests, but not the orthodoxies they insist upon. (Fortunately, however, she does footnote important books about those matters by Slobodian and by Tooze.) Yet while foregoing additional ways to fortify the arguments, her materialist / realist account remains compelling.
In 2008 Thompson published an important (but evidently neglected) book Might, right, prosperity and consent: representative democracy and the international economy 1919-2001. That book’s account of how major powers curtailed, distorted or simply demolished democracies from outside, in large part through international institutions, foreshadows major lines of argument in Disorder. Taken together, these two books explain the fields of forces that worsen inequality, diminish democracy and thus continue to generate yet more disorder.
August 21, 2023
A thought provoking book that does an admirable job of connecting the dots between energy and financial markets, and the political and geopolitical challenges the world has been facing.
The work is ambitious in scope and the author spared no effort digging into details to support her arguments. The result is a set of novel insights on a number of historical events over the past few decades.
My only (small) criticism is that, in her attempt to explain a number of policy decisions, she perhaps attributes an excess of rationality to the processes. It is easy to rationalise after the fact but in reality practitioners are subject to biases and often have to act with only a small fraction of the available information. And, sadly, far too few of them will have read books like this…
The work is ambitious in scope and the author spared no effort digging into details to support her arguments. The result is a set of novel insights on a number of historical events over the past few decades.
My only (small) criticism is that, in her attempt to explain a number of policy decisions, she perhaps attributes an excess of rationality to the processes. It is easy to rationalise after the fact but in reality practitioners are subject to biases and often have to act with only a small fraction of the available information. And, sadly, far too few of them will have read books like this…
July 3, 2022
Helen Thompson is an erudite and incisive analyst of contemporary global affairs. Her commentary is steeped in history, economics, politics, and in particular the interplay of energy markets with the world in which we live.
The focus of the book is on the “disruptions” of the last decade. The antecedents of this period date notably from the 1970s. The “book starts from the premise that several histories are necessary to identify the casual forces at work and a conviction these histories must overlap.” This statement launched the core of the book - the three sections (histories): geopolitics, the economy, and democratic politics.
I will refrain from summarizing the closing section where she ties these together so you’ll read this excellent book yourself.
I will note however that the terrible Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting ripples into geopolitics, markets, and the global macroeconomy are missing from this book (too late for inclusion) and I wonder how much the discussion would change were these to be included…….😈
The focus of the book is on the “disruptions” of the last decade. The antecedents of this period date notably from the 1970s. The “book starts from the premise that several histories are necessary to identify the casual forces at work and a conviction these histories must overlap.” This statement launched the core of the book - the three sections (histories): geopolitics, the economy, and democratic politics.
I will refrain from summarizing the closing section where she ties these together so you’ll read this excellent book yourself.
I will note however that the terrible Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting ripples into geopolitics, markets, and the global macroeconomy are missing from this book (too late for inclusion) and I wonder how much the discussion would change were these to be included…….😈
July 22, 2022
A remarkably in-depth, complex analysis of the changes in the global economy and world politics since the Second World War. The book examines the interwoven relationship between energy consumption, financial markets and democratic politics in more clarity and detail than anything comparable. It's immensely complex, with each paragraph carefully constructed and each word cherry picked to get across the narrative in as short a space as possible. It's an achievement in itself to fit so much detail into less than 300 pages. Thompson has an unrivalled mastery of international political history which she has somehow been able to convey in this book and I couldn't recommend it enough.
That said, I take a slightly more post-modern view to her modern IR theory approach, insofar as I believe international structures are essential to explaining why certain events played out and why the world is in the situation it currently finds itself in. I tend to see the structure as having influenced but not totally enforced the path we've taken as a polity over the past 100 or so years, which Thompson would refute. That doesn't detract from what should be considered a core text for anyone wanting to better understand the world we live in and the complexities of modern political history.
That said, I take a slightly more post-modern view to her modern IR theory approach, insofar as I believe international structures are essential to explaining why certain events played out and why the world is in the situation it currently finds itself in. I tend to see the structure as having influenced but not totally enforced the path we've taken as a polity over the past 100 or so years, which Thompson would refute. That doesn't detract from what should be considered a core text for anyone wanting to better understand the world we live in and the complexities of modern political history.
January 8, 2024
4.5/5
Puha. Jeg kritiserer ofte politik-fagbøger for at være for lange, ukonkrete og lette. Denne er det modsatte.
Jeg tror det kræver en ualmindelig forkærlighed for faglitteratur at nyde skrivestilen. Det er enormt tungt og til tider besværligt, og hvis man vil få noget ud af det, kræver det en masse fokus.
Men det er det værd. Det er ingen tvivl om, at Thompson får meget få emner (energi, centralbanker) til at betyde rigtigt meget for historien, men efter denne bog køber jeg præmissen. Jeg synes jeg har lært en helt masse om en helt masse, og det er vel formålet.
Puha. Jeg kritiserer ofte politik-fagbøger for at være for lange, ukonkrete og lette. Denne er det modsatte.
Jeg tror det kræver en ualmindelig forkærlighed for faglitteratur at nyde skrivestilen. Det er enormt tungt og til tider besværligt, og hvis man vil få noget ud af det, kræver det en masse fokus.
Men det er det værd. Det er ingen tvivl om, at Thompson får meget få emner (energi, centralbanker) til at betyde rigtigt meget for historien, men efter denne bog køber jeg præmissen. Jeg synes jeg har lært en helt masse om en helt masse, og det er vel formålet.
March 29, 2022
While the content of the book is interesting showing the interrelationships of energy (primarily oil and the advent of shale), financial markets e.g the 2007-2008 financial crisis and democracies (the conflicts arising between countries in Europe and the EU, further complicated by the fact that some are part of the single market but not the Eurozone), I could only give it 3 stars due to a very dry textbook style. I am glad I persisted in reading the book to the end as the Conclusion section is an excellent summary of the current geopolitical climate.
October 15, 2022
An insightful economic history that provides huge amounts of information, though in the end was flawed for me, primarily because of the lack of 'so what analysis'. Thompson presents a global history of the 20th century and into the early 21st century focused on politics and economics centred on three main themes - oil and to a broad extent the politics of energy; the dynamics of currencies particularly the dollar and how America manipulates this to its own advantage, and to a lesser extent the Euro; and the dynamics of democracy and how they swing between what she calls democratic and aristocratic excesses.
The good parts is that this book is extremely thorough and detailed analysis of these three areas, mostly in a way that is understandable to the non-specialist. Though only for the non-specialist who is interested in quite complex history and detail. I learnt a lot and for that I rate the book highly.
Where it is less good for me is that for all the analysis there is a lack of that element of, "ok so you have painted a picture, what do you think happens next?" She tries to do this in the last 5 pages of the book, but extremely quickly and at a high-level, which is disappointing after 250+ pages of historical analysis. These concluding pages do highlight some interesting points - how fossil few won't quickly go away and how much consumption is increasing in spite of the growth of green energy. She also indicates some of the inherent tensions within green energy. Nevertheless, it is a bit shallow compared to the massively researched and detailed analysis before.
Another point is that this talks of global politics, but it is essentially about America and western Europe. Of course, other countries play their part in creating the environment - but only as contributors to the situation rather than actors whose own politics is analyzed. In itself this is not a problem, but I feel should be made clear in the title and presentation of the book. The final one, is the trouble with any historical analysis of the current day, it starts to unravel as soon as the next day comes and new things emerge - most obviously the war in Ukraine. You can't blame Thomson for not anticipating this, but it undermines a few parts. For example, on page 267 she talks about how QE (quantitative easing) has not led to inflation. I'm not convinced anyone would write that now only a short while after publication. Also her comments on Germany's links to Russia and China may not age well.
Overall, a worthy, if at times overly heavy read, with some interesting insights. If you are interested in the interplay between politics and economics in western democracies, then well worth reading. Otherwise, it's probably not for you!
The good parts is that this book is extremely thorough and detailed analysis of these three areas, mostly in a way that is understandable to the non-specialist. Though only for the non-specialist who is interested in quite complex history and detail. I learnt a lot and for that I rate the book highly.
Where it is less good for me is that for all the analysis there is a lack of that element of, "ok so you have painted a picture, what do you think happens next?" She tries to do this in the last 5 pages of the book, but extremely quickly and at a high-level, which is disappointing after 250+ pages of historical analysis. These concluding pages do highlight some interesting points - how fossil few won't quickly go away and how much consumption is increasing in spite of the growth of green energy. She also indicates some of the inherent tensions within green energy. Nevertheless, it is a bit shallow compared to the massively researched and detailed analysis before.
Another point is that this talks of global politics, but it is essentially about America and western Europe. Of course, other countries play their part in creating the environment - but only as contributors to the situation rather than actors whose own politics is analyzed. In itself this is not a problem, but I feel should be made clear in the title and presentation of the book. The final one, is the trouble with any historical analysis of the current day, it starts to unravel as soon as the next day comes and new things emerge - most obviously the war in Ukraine. You can't blame Thomson for not anticipating this, but it undermines a few parts. For example, on page 267 she talks about how QE (quantitative easing) has not led to inflation. I'm not convinced anyone would write that now only a short while after publication. Also her comments on Germany's links to Russia and China may not age well.
Overall, a worthy, if at times overly heavy read, with some interesting insights. If you are interested in the interplay between politics and economics in western democracies, then well worth reading. Otherwise, it's probably not for you!
November 29, 2023
In her insightful book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century," Helen Thompson takes readers on a compelling journey through the turbulent landscape of the contemporary global order.
Thompson's exploration of the global societal disarray that characterises the 21st century is multifaceted, touching upon several crucial aspects, including economic instability, political upheaval, and the ever-evolving techno-energy landscape.
Her unique insights into the challenges and disruptions facing the world’s energy sector in this era make "Disorder" an invaluable resource for those working within finance as it shows how indispensable finance, and at its core, banking, is to ensure the world keeps revolving. By further dissecting the intricate interplay of economic forces and the world’s political order(s), Thompson offers readers a fresh perspective that is not only illuminating but also highly pertinent to professionals navigating the complexities of financial markets and economic policy.
Writing from a Namibian perspective and with Namibia’s recent oil discoveries, estimated to be around 11 billion barrels of oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, understanding the geopolitical energy environment that the country is about to enter as a supplier and how this environment has come to be what it is today, is quite a worthwhile exercise. It is something Thompson’s book goes about explaining. Through her deep knowledge of energy history, Thompson shows how critical junctures in world history did not turn out as they did due to the energy needs and capabilities of key powers. The two world wars could have had very different outcomes had the United States not become the biggest producer of oil in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. As Thompson quotes Vaclav Smil, the eminent energy academic, in one of her end notes, all economic life is, in a fundamental physical sense, nothing more than simple conversions of energy seeking to satisfy ever-growing needs by producing certain services and products. Thompson further goes on to sketch the role oil played in the US’s increasing activity in the Middle East for two Iraq wars, the Suez Crisis, and the Iranian Revolution towards the end of the 20th century as it lost its position as the world's leading producer, only to reverse course and “Pivot to Asia” as it regained that position with the shale boom at the start of the 2010’s.
None of the above is to say that Namibia is on course to become a military and economic force should its oil discoveries transpire into production. It is, however, to suggest that should production materialise, it is to be expected that the country will experience much more interest than it has possibly ever experienced before. As Thompson also showed in her book, had it not been for the oil discoveries in the Middle East, West European countries, and later the US, might never have taken the interest they had taken in the region.
Though challenging to grasp at the beginning and probably requiring a second read to appreciate fully, Disorder is worth the time and energy. It is sure to shed light on aspects of recent global history that one was never aware of or shine a new light on that you already knew ending one section will only spur you on to start and finish the next.
Thompson's exploration of the global societal disarray that characterises the 21st century is multifaceted, touching upon several crucial aspects, including economic instability, political upheaval, and the ever-evolving techno-energy landscape.
Her unique insights into the challenges and disruptions facing the world’s energy sector in this era make "Disorder" an invaluable resource for those working within finance as it shows how indispensable finance, and at its core, banking, is to ensure the world keeps revolving. By further dissecting the intricate interplay of economic forces and the world’s political order(s), Thompson offers readers a fresh perspective that is not only illuminating but also highly pertinent to professionals navigating the complexities of financial markets and economic policy.
Writing from a Namibian perspective and with Namibia’s recent oil discoveries, estimated to be around 11 billion barrels of oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, understanding the geopolitical energy environment that the country is about to enter as a supplier and how this environment has come to be what it is today, is quite a worthwhile exercise. It is something Thompson’s book goes about explaining. Through her deep knowledge of energy history, Thompson shows how critical junctures in world history did not turn out as they did due to the energy needs and capabilities of key powers. The two world wars could have had very different outcomes had the United States not become the biggest producer of oil in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. As Thompson quotes Vaclav Smil, the eminent energy academic, in one of her end notes, all economic life is, in a fundamental physical sense, nothing more than simple conversions of energy seeking to satisfy ever-growing needs by producing certain services and products. Thompson further goes on to sketch the role oil played in the US’s increasing activity in the Middle East for two Iraq wars, the Suez Crisis, and the Iranian Revolution towards the end of the 20th century as it lost its position as the world's leading producer, only to reverse course and “Pivot to Asia” as it regained that position with the shale boom at the start of the 2010’s.
None of the above is to say that Namibia is on course to become a military and economic force should its oil discoveries transpire into production. It is, however, to suggest that should production materialise, it is to be expected that the country will experience much more interest than it has possibly ever experienced before. As Thompson also showed in her book, had it not been for the oil discoveries in the Middle East, West European countries, and later the US, might never have taken the interest they had taken in the region.
Though challenging to grasp at the beginning and probably requiring a second read to appreciate fully, Disorder is worth the time and energy. It is sure to shed light on aspects of recent global history that one was never aware of or shine a new light on that you already knew ending one section will only spur you on to start and finish the next.
February 17, 2024
Very dense and hard to read, but glad I made it to the end. The last section and conclusion are the most digestible. Not a hopeful ending though!
Read
July 2, 2023UK politics academic Helen Thompson's 2022 book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century is an engrossing attempt to explain the present fractious state of the world as the inevitable result of intense competition for access to energy, in particular oil and gas.
Thompson argues that the international tensions over access to energy resources have been the major causes of economic and political disruptions since the Second World War, and that the much heralded 'green energy transition' is currently too ephemeral to substitute for the many uses and benefits of fossil fuels for at least a decade, and probably considerably longer.
Thompson's attempt is not completely convincing - the world seems too complex for single issue explanations - but Thompson packs enough detail into 280 pages of relatively dense text to remind the general reader that the development and exploitation of energy has been a major factor in shaping events in the modern world since early last century.
Thompson's core contention as noted in her introduction is that 'energy has largely gone unrecognized as an important cause of (recent) geopolitical and economic fault lines.' This is not unexpected. The primacy given to ideological and cultural factors in modern histories seems reasonable.
The collapse of communism in 1989 did not lead to an immediate global embrace of the liberal economic order of the US and Europe. The joint statement issued by China and Russia in February 2022 was an explicit rejection of the Western economic and political model motivated in part by an apparent belief that the West was declining, and the East rising.
A counterfactual history of the last 100 years would, of course, be substantially different if global oil and gas resources were located mainly in, say, Africa and Asia, rather than the US, Russia and the Middle East. But this has not been deemed a sufficient reason for most historians to foreground energy factors at the expense of other material circumstances that shaped evolving events.
Nevertheless, Disorder is a very enlightening counter-balance. Recent events such as Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the emerging global ambitions of China, and the substantial government funding in the US to promote local development of alternative energy suggest the time is right for a modern global history that foregrounds the role of energy.
The world presented in Disorder is one increasingly fractured by competition for oil and gas. It is a plausible and cogent proposition. The substantial financing of the production and consumption of these resources is said to have inflated and destabilised international financial markets, and to have increased popular unrest where governments are more focused on international energy politics than their citizens daily security and welfare.
The latter is attributed to governments becoming increasingly unaccountable, especially in the European Union, where centralised governance partly motivated by a need to manage dependency on imported energy has reduced the ability of people to influence events in their national elections.
Disorder's story is superficially compelling, proffering relatively simple explanations for major developments such as:
1. America's wars in the Middle East motivated by a perceived need to secure stable oil supplies (ironically, the Iraq War initiated in 2003 had the opposite effect);
2. the exceptional dependence of Germany and southern European nations on Russian oil and gas (which allowed Russia to curtail supplies to dampen objections to the Ukraine War, and which is so entrenched that European payments for oil and gas are largely funding the Russian campaign);
3. the destabilizing inflation and related unemployment of the 1970s when Middle Eastern oil producers used their market power to raise prices;
4. economic recessions in the 2000s generated by uncontrolled deployment of the very large international capital flows derived from oil and gas markets (the 'Great Recession' being a prime exhibit);
5. the Eurozone debt crises as countries tried to spend their way out of the recessions with borrowed money;
6. the rise of disruptive populism in Europe as citizens reacted negatively to unresponsive governments more focused on international energy financing than local income needs (austerity programs imposed by order of the European Central Bank figure prominently);
7. Russia and China's recent renewed efforts to form alliances with oil-rich countries in the Middle East;
8. the interest in renewable technologies in China and Europe to offset and possibly replace their dependence on fossil fuel imports, and the related substantial government subsidies being provided in the US to alternative energy sources in order to prevent China achieving uncontested dominance in the new forms of energy;
9. and most recently the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where valuable Russian gas exports to Europe are vulnerable to transmission tariffs imposed by Ukraine on the pipelines that traverse it (and where Russia objects to Ukraine's efforts to deter Russian interference by applying to join the EU and NATO).
Disorder is naturally a fossil fuel story, but Thompson is not convinced that the proposed green energy transition is completely feasible. Attempts to address climate change are acknowledged in Disorder as a coda to the oil and gas struggles of the last 120 years.
However, Thompson is a realist: she notes in her concluding comments the emerging competition for advantage and dominance in renewables and new electrification technology, but argues that Net Zero ambitions currently are illusory, given the limited capacity of the technologies to generate substantial and continuous flows of energy from renewables and to electrify widespread industrial infrastructure powered by oil and gas. Thompson seems here to be echoing the substantial reservations about renewables discussed in recent books on climate politics by American environmentalist Michael Shellenberger, fossil fuel energy campaigner Alex Epstein, and others.
Thompson's prognosis therefore is that the current dependence on oil and gas, and the political struggles related to their extraction and use, will continue into the foreseeable future. The attempts to normalise the use of alternative non fossil fuel energies, and to gain comparative advantage from dominating the development and production of these new forms of energy that do not emit greenhouse gases, is projected to remain a side-play rather than a practical substitute for traditional energy geopolitics.
Thompson's academic expertise is in the history of oil politics, and it is not surprising therefore that she believes that the determinative role of oil in global politics is greatly under appreciated. She acknowledges that religious and cultural factors are missing from her history of the last 120 years, but is adamant that 'the production, consumption, and transportation of oil and gas is critical for understanding' the period. Her position is intelligible, given that many popular histories of recent times have often preferred ideological factors to explain the international disturbances of the modern period.
Thompson general political position seems to be left of centre, judging by her public record on the popular podcast Talking Politics. Her energy story fits a little too easily into the modern left's tendency to critique energy politics as part of a broader dissatisfaction with capitalism.
Thompson seems reluctant to entertain possible alternative explanations for the progress of world affairs over the last century. For example, America's substantial advantage over Russia in the production and use of oil at the beginning of the First World War may have been due mainly to the relative stability provided by its liberal and ordered domestic politics, whereas Russia was embroiled in political and civil disruptions arising from its less sophisticated political structures.
Similarly, the development of supranational governance structures in the European Union, which have induced some substantially negative populist and nationalist reactions (and, of course, Brexit) may originate more from a post-modern ideological disdain for the nation state than simply a preference for unitary institutions to manage Europe's energy import dependence that worsened when Middle Eastern oil producers ramped up prices in the 1970s.
Another factor attributed to energy economics in Disorder is the highly significant and increasing use of 'quantitative easing' (large scale purchases of bonds by central banks) as the principal (and risky) instrument used by governments to stimulate recession-prone economies when the traditional monetary policy manipulation of interest rates is negated by persistent low rates.
Thompson notes the rise of Eurodollar markets to finance energy supplies, and the related breakdown of national control of monetary policies that allowed excessive borrowing to disturb financial markets. But, given that QE began as a Japanese policy in the 1990s to manage deflation, it is reasonable to think that the rise of QE policies in the West generally may be more complicated than simply an effect of speculative financial markets inflated by the energy sector.
Nationhood and nationalism is also a key theme in Disorder. Thompson notes that nationhood has deteriorated as international capital markets have increasingly dominated energy investment, with the result that national governments are less motivated to respond to their constituencies.
This is particularly the interpretation she provides for the tensions between the EU institutions and the increasingly restive national populations in Europe. National governments in the Eurozone have ceded control of monetary policy to the ECB, and have less incentive and flexibility to manage their economies. Their populations consequently react negatively when their governments seem not to be accountable for austerity programs and other financial governance matters that affect them.
Albeit that Disorder's focus on energy politics is an informed and detailed counter-argument to more conventional analyses of geopolitical tensions in the modern world, Thompson does, however, seem somewhat coy about possibly her real thoughts on these matters. She notes briefly that the history of energy to date is one of increasing economic growth that is dependent on using more energy, and that the limitations of so-called green energy are likely to require reduced consumption to comply with agreed targets for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Thompson seems reluctant to criticize the new reduced growth option (which seems to be a rerun of the 1970s' Club of Rome Limits to Growth report advocating reduced economic growth to address a presumed depletion of resources). She notes that reductions will have substantial economic impacts on consumers, especially if the distribution of the reductions is unequal, which would almost certainly cause further political disruptions. The gilets jaunes demonstrations in France in 2018 over minor increases in fuel taxes quickly evolved into much broader political protest about inequality.
A clue to Thompson's view on these matters may lie in the epigraph page that prefaces Disorder. There are three quotes: one from Dickens's 1854 novel Hard Times for These Times, which explores the damaging cultural effects of industrialization, a passage from Dickens's Tale of Two Cities suggesting the guillotine and tumbrils of the French Revolution emanated from darkly subconscious impulses related to Fate and Death, and a quote from the 1643 Religio Medici of Thomas Browne on the transience of human affairs.
These hint at a more philosophical motivation for Disorder: that the energy forces that have enabled the development of the modern world contain within them a destructive Faustian bargain. Disorder provides a detailed summary of a world fracturing, and one which could dissolve into chaos if conflicts between the superpowers continue to be dominated and exacerbated by access to scarce energy resources.
Readers of a liberal and optimistic disposition will be grateful for Thompson's detailed analysis of contemporary energy politics, but may finish the book with a more encouraging expectation that the energy resource strategies of autocracies such as Russia and China have less flexibility to progress successfully in the 21st century than the more dynamic democratic societies of North America and Europe (especially if the latter can resolve its governance contradictions).
Future global geopolitics may not be as grimly repetitive or dystopianly restrictive as Thompson seems to suggest, if a core dynamic of global progress is the conflict between democratic and authoritarian impulses for governing, of which energy politics is a subset rather than the determinative factor.
Engaging and illuminating as Disorder is, a general reader may find the range and intensity of detail almost overwhelming. The chapter notes collected at the end of the book reveal Thompson's extraordinarily broad and close reading of material in her field of study. She claims her 'analytical history is offered as synthetic interpretation and privileges the schematic over forensic detail.'
Celebrity historian Tom Holland's praise for Disorder is quoted on the dust jacket, and notes that 'to read Thompson on the history of the past century is to see it in sudden sharp definition, akin to looking through glass after the window-cleaner has been.'
The general reader may want to differ. We can be grateful for Thompson's insights, but the unrelenting procession of events and detail can at times remind one more of the biblical glass darkly. Only very attentive reading and a careful regard for other more general factors not analyzed in Disorder can reveal the full picture.
A final teasing thought may also occur: if the climate change constraint is relaxed over the next two decades because the modeling that underpins it seems to continually overshoot, then current barriers being erected to the ongoing development and use of fossil fuels will be reduced.
In that somewhat black swan scenario, considerable resources currently tied up in the development of renewable energy technologies will be freed to improve the efficient use of fossil fuel energy, and possibly also to develop better and more practical alternative forms of energy. The very recent rise of complex AI tools might be of considerable assistance in those endeavors. In that case, Thompson's Disorder may prove to be more a rear vision view of the world than a reliable projection of ongoing fracturing.
Thompson argues that the international tensions over access to energy resources have been the major causes of economic and political disruptions since the Second World War, and that the much heralded 'green energy transition' is currently too ephemeral to substitute for the many uses and benefits of fossil fuels for at least a decade, and probably considerably longer.
Thompson's attempt is not completely convincing - the world seems too complex for single issue explanations - but Thompson packs enough detail into 280 pages of relatively dense text to remind the general reader that the development and exploitation of energy has been a major factor in shaping events in the modern world since early last century.
Thompson's core contention as noted in her introduction is that 'energy has largely gone unrecognized as an important cause of (recent) geopolitical and economic fault lines.' This is not unexpected. The primacy given to ideological and cultural factors in modern histories seems reasonable.
The collapse of communism in 1989 did not lead to an immediate global embrace of the liberal economic order of the US and Europe. The joint statement issued by China and Russia in February 2022 was an explicit rejection of the Western economic and political model motivated in part by an apparent belief that the West was declining, and the East rising.
A counterfactual history of the last 100 years would, of course, be substantially different if global oil and gas resources were located mainly in, say, Africa and Asia, rather than the US, Russia and the Middle East. But this has not been deemed a sufficient reason for most historians to foreground energy factors at the expense of other material circumstances that shaped evolving events.
Nevertheless, Disorder is a very enlightening counter-balance. Recent events such as Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the emerging global ambitions of China, and the substantial government funding in the US to promote local development of alternative energy suggest the time is right for a modern global history that foregrounds the role of energy.
The world presented in Disorder is one increasingly fractured by competition for oil and gas. It is a plausible and cogent proposition. The substantial financing of the production and consumption of these resources is said to have inflated and destabilised international financial markets, and to have increased popular unrest where governments are more focused on international energy politics than their citizens daily security and welfare.
The latter is attributed to governments becoming increasingly unaccountable, especially in the European Union, where centralised governance partly motivated by a need to manage dependency on imported energy has reduced the ability of people to influence events in their national elections.
Disorder's story is superficially compelling, proffering relatively simple explanations for major developments such as:
1. America's wars in the Middle East motivated by a perceived need to secure stable oil supplies (ironically, the Iraq War initiated in 2003 had the opposite effect);
2. the exceptional dependence of Germany and southern European nations on Russian oil and gas (which allowed Russia to curtail supplies to dampen objections to the Ukraine War, and which is so entrenched that European payments for oil and gas are largely funding the Russian campaign);
3. the destabilizing inflation and related unemployment of the 1970s when Middle Eastern oil producers used their market power to raise prices;
4. economic recessions in the 2000s generated by uncontrolled deployment of the very large international capital flows derived from oil and gas markets (the 'Great Recession' being a prime exhibit);
5. the Eurozone debt crises as countries tried to spend their way out of the recessions with borrowed money;
6. the rise of disruptive populism in Europe as citizens reacted negatively to unresponsive governments more focused on international energy financing than local income needs (austerity programs imposed by order of the European Central Bank figure prominently);
7. Russia and China's recent renewed efforts to form alliances with oil-rich countries in the Middle East;
8. the interest in renewable technologies in China and Europe to offset and possibly replace their dependence on fossil fuel imports, and the related substantial government subsidies being provided in the US to alternative energy sources in order to prevent China achieving uncontested dominance in the new forms of energy;
9. and most recently the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where valuable Russian gas exports to Europe are vulnerable to transmission tariffs imposed by Ukraine on the pipelines that traverse it (and where Russia objects to Ukraine's efforts to deter Russian interference by applying to join the EU and NATO).
Disorder is naturally a fossil fuel story, but Thompson is not convinced that the proposed green energy transition is completely feasible. Attempts to address climate change are acknowledged in Disorder as a coda to the oil and gas struggles of the last 120 years.
However, Thompson is a realist: she notes in her concluding comments the emerging competition for advantage and dominance in renewables and new electrification technology, but argues that Net Zero ambitions currently are illusory, given the limited capacity of the technologies to generate substantial and continuous flows of energy from renewables and to electrify widespread industrial infrastructure powered by oil and gas. Thompson seems here to be echoing the substantial reservations about renewables discussed in recent books on climate politics by American environmentalist Michael Shellenberger, fossil fuel energy campaigner Alex Epstein, and others.
Thompson's prognosis therefore is that the current dependence on oil and gas, and the political struggles related to their extraction and use, will continue into the foreseeable future. The attempts to normalise the use of alternative non fossil fuel energies, and to gain comparative advantage from dominating the development and production of these new forms of energy that do not emit greenhouse gases, is projected to remain a side-play rather than a practical substitute for traditional energy geopolitics.
Thompson's academic expertise is in the history of oil politics, and it is not surprising therefore that she believes that the determinative role of oil in global politics is greatly under appreciated. She acknowledges that religious and cultural factors are missing from her history of the last 120 years, but is adamant that 'the production, consumption, and transportation of oil and gas is critical for understanding' the period. Her position is intelligible, given that many popular histories of recent times have often preferred ideological factors to explain the international disturbances of the modern period.
Thompson general political position seems to be left of centre, judging by her public record on the popular podcast Talking Politics. Her energy story fits a little too easily into the modern left's tendency to critique energy politics as part of a broader dissatisfaction with capitalism.
Thompson seems reluctant to entertain possible alternative explanations for the progress of world affairs over the last century. For example, America's substantial advantage over Russia in the production and use of oil at the beginning of the First World War may have been due mainly to the relative stability provided by its liberal and ordered domestic politics, whereas Russia was embroiled in political and civil disruptions arising from its less sophisticated political structures.
Similarly, the development of supranational governance structures in the European Union, which have induced some substantially negative populist and nationalist reactions (and, of course, Brexit) may originate more from a post-modern ideological disdain for the nation state than simply a preference for unitary institutions to manage Europe's energy import dependence that worsened when Middle Eastern oil producers ramped up prices in the 1970s.
Another factor attributed to energy economics in Disorder is the highly significant and increasing use of 'quantitative easing' (large scale purchases of bonds by central banks) as the principal (and risky) instrument used by governments to stimulate recession-prone economies when the traditional monetary policy manipulation of interest rates is negated by persistent low rates.
Thompson notes the rise of Eurodollar markets to finance energy supplies, and the related breakdown of national control of monetary policies that allowed excessive borrowing to disturb financial markets. But, given that QE began as a Japanese policy in the 1990s to manage deflation, it is reasonable to think that the rise of QE policies in the West generally may be more complicated than simply an effect of speculative financial markets inflated by the energy sector.
Nationhood and nationalism is also a key theme in Disorder. Thompson notes that nationhood has deteriorated as international capital markets have increasingly dominated energy investment, with the result that national governments are less motivated to respond to their constituencies.
This is particularly the interpretation she provides for the tensions between the EU institutions and the increasingly restive national populations in Europe. National governments in the Eurozone have ceded control of monetary policy to the ECB, and have less incentive and flexibility to manage their economies. Their populations consequently react negatively when their governments seem not to be accountable for austerity programs and other financial governance matters that affect them.
Albeit that Disorder's focus on energy politics is an informed and detailed counter-argument to more conventional analyses of geopolitical tensions in the modern world, Thompson does, however, seem somewhat coy about possibly her real thoughts on these matters. She notes briefly that the history of energy to date is one of increasing economic growth that is dependent on using more energy, and that the limitations of so-called green energy are likely to require reduced consumption to comply with agreed targets for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Thompson seems reluctant to criticize the new reduced growth option (which seems to be a rerun of the 1970s' Club of Rome Limits to Growth report advocating reduced economic growth to address a presumed depletion of resources). She notes that reductions will have substantial economic impacts on consumers, especially if the distribution of the reductions is unequal, which would almost certainly cause further political disruptions. The gilets jaunes demonstrations in France in 2018 over minor increases in fuel taxes quickly evolved into much broader political protest about inequality.
A clue to Thompson's view on these matters may lie in the epigraph page that prefaces Disorder. There are three quotes: one from Dickens's 1854 novel Hard Times for These Times, which explores the damaging cultural effects of industrialization, a passage from Dickens's Tale of Two Cities suggesting the guillotine and tumbrils of the French Revolution emanated from darkly subconscious impulses related to Fate and Death, and a quote from the 1643 Religio Medici of Thomas Browne on the transience of human affairs.
These hint at a more philosophical motivation for Disorder: that the energy forces that have enabled the development of the modern world contain within them a destructive Faustian bargain. Disorder provides a detailed summary of a world fracturing, and one which could dissolve into chaos if conflicts between the superpowers continue to be dominated and exacerbated by access to scarce energy resources.
Readers of a liberal and optimistic disposition will be grateful for Thompson's detailed analysis of contemporary energy politics, but may finish the book with a more encouraging expectation that the energy resource strategies of autocracies such as Russia and China have less flexibility to progress successfully in the 21st century than the more dynamic democratic societies of North America and Europe (especially if the latter can resolve its governance contradictions).
Future global geopolitics may not be as grimly repetitive or dystopianly restrictive as Thompson seems to suggest, if a core dynamic of global progress is the conflict between democratic and authoritarian impulses for governing, of which energy politics is a subset rather than the determinative factor.
Engaging and illuminating as Disorder is, a general reader may find the range and intensity of detail almost overwhelming. The chapter notes collected at the end of the book reveal Thompson's extraordinarily broad and close reading of material in her field of study. She claims her 'analytical history is offered as synthetic interpretation and privileges the schematic over forensic detail.'
Celebrity historian Tom Holland's praise for Disorder is quoted on the dust jacket, and notes that 'to read Thompson on the history of the past century is to see it in sudden sharp definition, akin to looking through glass after the window-cleaner has been.'
The general reader may want to differ. We can be grateful for Thompson's insights, but the unrelenting procession of events and detail can at times remind one more of the biblical glass darkly. Only very attentive reading and a careful regard for other more general factors not analyzed in Disorder can reveal the full picture.
A final teasing thought may also occur: if the climate change constraint is relaxed over the next two decades because the modeling that underpins it seems to continually overshoot, then current barriers being erected to the ongoing development and use of fossil fuels will be reduced.
In that somewhat black swan scenario, considerable resources currently tied up in the development of renewable energy technologies will be freed to improve the efficient use of fossil fuel energy, and possibly also to develop better and more practical alternative forms of energy. The very recent rise of complex AI tools might be of considerable assistance in those endeavors. In that case, Thompson's Disorder may prove to be more a rear vision view of the world than a reliable projection of ongoing fracturing.
October 6, 2023
An intricate account of the origins of the chaos in the 2010s-2020s
Appreciated the unflinching focus on the structural tensions arising from various geopolitical relations and issues, which in some ways have always been there, going back to the days of empires.
Also suggests implicitly that we will always be musdling through as interests and circumstances will allow.
Appreciated the unflinching focus on the structural tensions arising from various geopolitical relations and issues, which in some ways have always been there, going back to the days of empires.
Also suggests implicitly that we will always be musdling through as interests and circumstances will allow.
June 15, 2022
Thompson argues that there is a crisis in Western democracy and ties this to fluctuating energy prices, funding through debt rather more than taxes, and the division between a globalised 'aristocratic' class and populist democracy. Her analysis is fine, but others write about democratic decay more effectively.
December 17, 2022
A really excellent retelling of the modern political history of Western Europe and the US through the lens of energy. What Thompson does is not so much to introduce new stories, but to frame what you already know in a new and novel way.
The first section which deals with the political economy of oil is perhaps the heaviest, but also the most worthwhile section of the book. If, like me, you always saw energy production as something that has a second order effect on politics, this section will really move the geopolitics of oil to the front and center of your understanding.
The next two sections are also interesting, however they do feel a little less novel than the first, where Thompson is so obviously in her element as one of the pre-eminent experts on the politics of oil. Her retelling of the story of the rise of global finance in section two, and particularly the emergence of Eurodollar markets, let’s her to really do a great job in explaining the current issues of the Eurozone in particular.
The final section is in my opinion the weakest, because it simply isn’t that fresh. For anybody who listened to Thompson on Talking Politics for the last 5 years, you’ll recognise a lot of the points and even events brought up in this section on the problems of democracy in the 21st century. Where this sections brings together the previous threads of oil and finance, however, is where it really shines.
Disorder is a book that does a fantastic job at framing some of the key problems that politics will have to deal with in the 21st century - energy transition, public finance, democratic decay. One thing that would prevent me from giving this book a 5th star, is that the writing style and presentation to topics is often heavy and complex, which really would limit the book from being accessible to a wider audience outside of the academic bubble. The issue is that many of the issues may be already familiar to people who have read a lot of the literature on these topics (for instance those familiar with Adam Tooze’s work may feel section 2 isn’t that novel).
What the book does well is to tie all the issues together and to frame an outlook for 21st century politics around the disorder in these 3 areas, but I just wish it could’ve been written in a way that would attract a more non-academic readership, particularly considering how Talking Politics often did. I would definitely recommend this book to somebody looking to better their understanding of how energy is central to political conflict, but I would have to warn them that it might not be an easy read.
The first section which deals with the political economy of oil is perhaps the heaviest, but also the most worthwhile section of the book. If, like me, you always saw energy production as something that has a second order effect on politics, this section will really move the geopolitics of oil to the front and center of your understanding.
The next two sections are also interesting, however they do feel a little less novel than the first, where Thompson is so obviously in her element as one of the pre-eminent experts on the politics of oil. Her retelling of the story of the rise of global finance in section two, and particularly the emergence of Eurodollar markets, let’s her to really do a great job in explaining the current issues of the Eurozone in particular.
The final section is in my opinion the weakest, because it simply isn’t that fresh. For anybody who listened to Thompson on Talking Politics for the last 5 years, you’ll recognise a lot of the points and even events brought up in this section on the problems of democracy in the 21st century. Where this sections brings together the previous threads of oil and finance, however, is where it really shines.
Disorder is a book that does a fantastic job at framing some of the key problems that politics will have to deal with in the 21st century - energy transition, public finance, democratic decay. One thing that would prevent me from giving this book a 5th star, is that the writing style and presentation to topics is often heavy and complex, which really would limit the book from being accessible to a wider audience outside of the academic bubble. The issue is that many of the issues may be already familiar to people who have read a lot of the literature on these topics (for instance those familiar with Adam Tooze’s work may feel section 2 isn’t that novel).
What the book does well is to tie all the issues together and to frame an outlook for 21st century politics around the disorder in these 3 areas, but I just wish it could’ve been written in a way that would attract a more non-academic readership, particularly considering how Talking Politics often did. I would definitely recommend this book to somebody looking to better their understanding of how energy is central to political conflict, but I would have to warn them that it might not be an easy read.
July 21, 2022
One of several brilliant and highly predictive books I've read recently - books written before the current world crisis (the supply chain-energy-Ukraine-stagnation-inflation one, not the pandemic one) that clearly predict one or more elements of the crisis with spooky accuracy. In this high-speed flight round the world energy economy Helen Thompson re-arranges all your lazy assumptions about global power dynamics, about the interests of the great powers, about the shifting intentions (and the needs) of the emerging powers (and the fading powers). And, along the way, she essentially outlines the course of the Ukraine war, setting it in the context of the energy dynamics of 'Eurasia' and the USA. You'll have to concentrate - ideas and interperetations come thick and fast and Thompson's sentences are sometimes a bit of a journey but I reckon this is one of a handful of absolutely essential reads if you want to understand the 2022 conjuncture (I highlighted about half the book as I read it so you should get a pretty good idea of Thompson's themes from reading my notes/highlights).
(those other super-predictive books? Tony Wood's Russia without Putin and Holly Jean Buck's Ending fossil fuels).
(those other super-predictive books? Tony Wood's Russia without Putin and Holly Jean Buck's Ending fossil fuels).
Read
April 5, 2022The organization and narrative arc of the book felt confusing, I felt like I was reading several dozen blog posts mashed together. That being said this is still worth a read as it's extremely dense with historical arcs, figures, and particular picked out moments of crisis and clarity. Lots of moments of clarity or new questions came from reading this.
One place where a blind spot of mine was somewhat relieved was the book's treatment of the central tensions in the EU and its development. This seems to be somewhat elided in american commentary: the meta-tension of the EU's internal disagreements and instability via power imbalances between German, France, and the rest + the EU being pressure-cooked from outside via collective issues (Russia, China, migrant crises, EU-US relations, eurozone etc). I'm more interested than before regarding how the EU manages to navigate its own internal contradictions and its geopoltical imperatives around energy & socio-economic imbalances, as this will partially circumscribe the US's potential role in eurasia going forward.
Also worth noting this book also focused largely on a western-centric view, there was relatively little discussion of Africa, South America, and SEA.
One place where a blind spot of mine was somewhat relieved was the book's treatment of the central tensions in the EU and its development. This seems to be somewhat elided in american commentary: the meta-tension of the EU's internal disagreements and instability via power imbalances between German, France, and the rest + the EU being pressure-cooked from outside via collective issues (Russia, China, migrant crises, EU-US relations, eurozone etc). I'm more interested than before regarding how the EU manages to navigate its own internal contradictions and its geopoltical imperatives around energy & socio-economic imbalances, as this will partially circumscribe the US's potential role in eurasia going forward.
Also worth noting this book also focused largely on a western-centric view, there was relatively little discussion of Africa, South America, and SEA.
August 2, 2022
There's a lot in here about American control over global capital flows, about the global struggle for energy, about the breakdown of democratic legitimacy. Some good, some not. It's bound to spark some debate. Frankly, my time would have been better served if I'd stuck to the podcast interview with Helen Thompson which inspired me to pick up the book in the first place
Now, with all that in mind, there's one thing all readers of this book should be able to agree on: Morgenthau was right.
Now, with all that in mind, there's one thing all readers of this book should be able to agree on: Morgenthau was right.
January 31, 2024
Dense. Energy is everything.
Updated review 31st Jan:
- inadvertently re-read all the chapters now as part of my course. Albeit not perfectly written (there is the occasional sentence which takes me about 5 tries), this book is so dense it’s insane. The interconnections Helen tracks and draws out are great. Feel like I gain something every time I pick it up.
Updated review 31st Jan:
- inadvertently re-read all the chapters now as part of my course. Albeit not perfectly written (there is the occasional sentence which takes me about 5 tries), this book is so dense it’s insane. The interconnections Helen tracks and draws out are great. Feel like I gain something every time I pick it up.
June 27, 2023
Generous rating
December 10, 2022
The author Helen Thompson is Professor of Political Economy in Cambridge.Her current research concentrates on the political economy of energy and the long history of the democratic, economic, and geopolitical disruptions of the twenty-first century. She was a regular panelist on Talking Politics and a columnist for the New Statesman.
On December 5th 2022, this book was in the top 20 best books of 2022 by The Financial Times. I chose this book because I was looking for a heady dose of. non-fiction. I borrowed it from my local library and very soon began getting nibbling emails from said library that others wanted same book. The dramatic nature of Brexit and Trump's election in 2016 encouraged much shortsighted analysis since then so this book is a good antidote to snippet news.
There is a November 2022 interview on the Demand Side podcast where the author explains how the book gestated since 2018 especially its delay due to Covid-19. Thompson describes how she divided the book into geopolitics driven by energy supply particularly oil and gas and finance particularly the dismantlement of Bretton woods and democratic politics which cannot be separated from nation states.
The energy narrative starts with the rise of oil and its replacement of coal which gradually disadvantaged Europe. The monetary strand starts in 1971-1973 with the dissolution of Bretton woods and the ERM and then Euro. It covers both sides of the Atlantic with alternative threads of discussion flipping between the US and Europe. There's fascinating insight into the tensions between Britain, France and Germany at that time. The second monetary chapter is about US-China relations the build up of easy credit and the cause of the 2007-2008 crash.
The third section on democratic politics discusses issues such as where the boundaries of nation states should be? How independent can those states be? What is their relationship with empire - first the European empires and then America. She also discusses tensions within the US regionally and between rich and poor. Actually, it's a wonder the social contract works at all in the US. Or maybe it doesn't? The best system of democratic checks and balances appears to be Germany because it was set up most recently and imposed by the victorious allies.
For me, the book's reward comes in the last section (chapters 7-9) in the discussion on how energy and monetary policies affect politics in the US and Europe. The cumulative effect of more internationalised and financialized economies from the 1970s terminated economic nationhood. It favoured the rich who could move money around to avoid tax. the 1 percent richest got richer and the 0.1 % even richer. Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are the epitome and proof of this. Since the Maastricht treaty which gave more power to Brussels, the EU has acted as a divisive force upon democratic politics in its members.
Living in Ireland, we are always good to see where Ireland sits in terms of bigger politics away from the glare of our own self-obsessed media. Ireland sticks its little head up in discussions about the post 2008 bailouts and ratification of various EU treaties. Also, the effect of a Brexited Northern Ireland on US-UK trade relations gets a mention in the conclusion.
Helen Thompson tweeted on the 24th of Feb - the day Russia invaded Ukraine:
It feels pretty strange to be publishing a book in part about Europe’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines around Russia on this day. But Disorder is an attempt to understand the world today
Understandably, there is nothing much here about the invasion of Ukraine where gas and oil take centre stage. The conclusion does has some speculation on how the shift to carbon neutral away from fossil fuels will change things.
That was a dense book so it's back to fiction now for my next read.
On December 5th 2022, this book was in the top 20 best books of 2022 by The Financial Times. I chose this book because I was looking for a heady dose of. non-fiction. I borrowed it from my local library and very soon began getting nibbling emails from said library that others wanted same book. The dramatic nature of Brexit and Trump's election in 2016 encouraged much shortsighted analysis since then so this book is a good antidote to snippet news.
There is a November 2022 interview on the Demand Side podcast where the author explains how the book gestated since 2018 especially its delay due to Covid-19. Thompson describes how she divided the book into geopolitics driven by energy supply particularly oil and gas and finance particularly the dismantlement of Bretton woods and democratic politics which cannot be separated from nation states.
The energy narrative starts with the rise of oil and its replacement of coal which gradually disadvantaged Europe. The monetary strand starts in 1971-1973 with the dissolution of Bretton woods and the ERM and then Euro. It covers both sides of the Atlantic with alternative threads of discussion flipping between the US and Europe. There's fascinating insight into the tensions between Britain, France and Germany at that time. The second monetary chapter is about US-China relations the build up of easy credit and the cause of the 2007-2008 crash.
The third section on democratic politics discusses issues such as where the boundaries of nation states should be? How independent can those states be? What is their relationship with empire - first the European empires and then America. She also discusses tensions within the US regionally and between rich and poor. Actually, it's a wonder the social contract works at all in the US. Or maybe it doesn't? The best system of democratic checks and balances appears to be Germany because it was set up most recently and imposed by the victorious allies.
For me, the book's reward comes in the last section (chapters 7-9) in the discussion on how energy and monetary policies affect politics in the US and Europe. The cumulative effect of more internationalised and financialized economies from the 1970s terminated economic nationhood. It favoured the rich who could move money around to avoid tax. the 1 percent richest got richer and the 0.1 % even richer. Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are the epitome and proof of this. Since the Maastricht treaty which gave more power to Brussels, the EU has acted as a divisive force upon democratic politics in its members.
Living in Ireland, we are always good to see where Ireland sits in terms of bigger politics away from the glare of our own self-obsessed media. Ireland sticks its little head up in discussions about the post 2008 bailouts and ratification of various EU treaties. Also, the effect of a Brexited Northern Ireland on US-UK trade relations gets a mention in the conclusion.
Helen Thompson tweeted on the 24th of Feb - the day Russia invaded Ukraine:
It feels pretty strange to be publishing a book in part about Europe’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines around Russia on this day. But Disorder is an attempt to understand the world today
Understandably, there is nothing much here about the invasion of Ukraine where gas and oil take centre stage. The conclusion does has some speculation on how the shift to carbon neutral away from fossil fuels will change things.
That was a dense book so it's back to fiction now for my next read.
December 13, 2022
Listened via Audible.
Three threads - Geo Politics around the world; Energy; Power of the Central Banks (U.S. Federal Reserve in particular) - are discussed in great detail with extraordinary insight. The biggest 'take-away' is that we've traditionally looked at each of these three threads - as separate 'silos' to be studied. Thompson makes the point that these three threads are interrelated - and should be thought of as impacting one another.
Empires have been; now are; and will be made by their access to energy. Thompson mentions Winston Churchill's (then controversial) decision to move the U.K. Navy from Coal-fired to Oil-fired warships - giving the U.K. Navy an advantage over their principal adversary (Germany) - but also inheriting some responsibility about maintaining supplies of Oil within the Middle East (Countries and protection of the Suez Canal; protection of their Empire).
Likewise if and when there is another Energy transition - to renewables - the U.S. and China will contest for dominance in that age - Geo politics/alliances will change as appropriate.
Rise of Central Banks - U.S. Fed's Rate decisions impact the entire world - with the U.S. Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency. The U.S. Fed is now the 'lender of last resort' - for COVID related payments and other stimulus. The U.S. Fed's low borrowing rates for such a long time - has made the U.S. dollar stronger - and caused some issues with our allies.
Geo Politics - much discussion about Europe - the difference between the European Union (a political alignment) - and the Euro Zone countries that have adopted the Euro as the currency. Thompson indicates that this will be an ongoing Economic Problem for this region - citing the difference between the Nationalist viewpoint and the European wide viewpoint on who pays what level of tax to whom.
Back to Energy - Thompson feels that the upcoming decade will continue to be one of disorder - with an 'expensive' transition to a new Energy System which may keep inflation high; with the Central Banks trying to eliminate inflation - but perhaps may switch to jump starting Economic Growth (lower rates rather than higher interest rates) - and finally the U.S.- China competition - with the extension of the Belt & Road Initiative - and the 'West' not totally sure of its strategy versus China - much less towards Russia and then Iran.
Interesting - complex writing - but 'worth it'.
Should be of interest to those who read current affairs.
Carl Gallozzi
Cgallozzi@comcast.net
Three threads - Geo Politics around the world; Energy; Power of the Central Banks (U.S. Federal Reserve in particular) - are discussed in great detail with extraordinary insight. The biggest 'take-away' is that we've traditionally looked at each of these three threads - as separate 'silos' to be studied. Thompson makes the point that these three threads are interrelated - and should be thought of as impacting one another.
Empires have been; now are; and will be made by their access to energy. Thompson mentions Winston Churchill's (then controversial) decision to move the U.K. Navy from Coal-fired to Oil-fired warships - giving the U.K. Navy an advantage over their principal adversary (Germany) - but also inheriting some responsibility about maintaining supplies of Oil within the Middle East (Countries and protection of the Suez Canal; protection of their Empire).
Likewise if and when there is another Energy transition - to renewables - the U.S. and China will contest for dominance in that age - Geo politics/alliances will change as appropriate.
Rise of Central Banks - U.S. Fed's Rate decisions impact the entire world - with the U.S. Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency. The U.S. Fed is now the 'lender of last resort' - for COVID related payments and other stimulus. The U.S. Fed's low borrowing rates for such a long time - has made the U.S. dollar stronger - and caused some issues with our allies.
Geo Politics - much discussion about Europe - the difference between the European Union (a political alignment) - and the Euro Zone countries that have adopted the Euro as the currency. Thompson indicates that this will be an ongoing Economic Problem for this region - citing the difference between the Nationalist viewpoint and the European wide viewpoint on who pays what level of tax to whom.
Back to Energy - Thompson feels that the upcoming decade will continue to be one of disorder - with an 'expensive' transition to a new Energy System which may keep inflation high; with the Central Banks trying to eliminate inflation - but perhaps may switch to jump starting Economic Growth (lower rates rather than higher interest rates) - and finally the U.S.- China competition - with the extension of the Belt & Road Initiative - and the 'West' not totally sure of its strategy versus China - much less towards Russia and then Iran.
Interesting - complex writing - but 'worth it'.
Should be of interest to those who read current affairs.
Carl Gallozzi
Cgallozzi@comcast.net
April 25, 2023
Every bit as good as everyone has said, but an outstandingly dense and blandly written book.
Helen Thompson does incredible, sweeping work in single sentences. Repeatedly. Disorder covers geopolitics through a focus on fuel and energy production. It covers economics through bonds, citizen debt and national buying power. And finally, the author explores democratic politics through losers consent, taxation and time itself. It's just sublime. Her lens on international relations is nothing short of revolutionary, drawing on a gigantic well of evidence. The really cool part is that Thompson's evidence is all readily available in the public consciousness, she simply unlocks it by putting together geopolitical issues in a neat line of dominoes.
This will undoubtedly be an even more rewarding book to re-read. A lot of Thompson's ideas were nuanced and textured for me, and it took a while before her arguments fully clicked into place. The issue is that by the time what she is saying starts working, the book has moved on to a new feature of the topic. In particular her take on economics relies on rudimentary understanding of Euro Dollars, credit markets and macro fiscal policy. This is one of the drawbacks of an audiobook. However a huge advantage is that the arguments wash over the listener in such a fluid way, that a good first listen gives a holistic view of Thompson's big arguments.
However, no matter how exceptional Thompson's arguments are, the presentation is as dull as a dish without garlic. Her prose is flat the entire way through, reading more like a news bulletin than the revolutionary material it is. The ideas are so tightly packed together, with so much information that the audiobook format allows a blissful movement through facts that a concentrated reading may not. Indeed, such a reading is more likely to induce a nosebleed than a sharpening of knowledge. In the large sense of things, these issues are rather minor. This is a book which will be read and re-read, studied for countless evenings by eager undergraduates, and in certain corners of social media, turned into memes. Thompson's lack of splendour or fluidity is more than countered by a dense concentration of groundbreaking knowledge.
Overall, I would recommend this to anyone with a cursory interest in international relations. If that isn't your cup of tea, you'll still get the benefits of these arguments in a few years when they no doubt diffuse into public consciousness.
Helen Thompson does incredible, sweeping work in single sentences. Repeatedly. Disorder covers geopolitics through a focus on fuel and energy production. It covers economics through bonds, citizen debt and national buying power. And finally, the author explores democratic politics through losers consent, taxation and time itself. It's just sublime. Her lens on international relations is nothing short of revolutionary, drawing on a gigantic well of evidence. The really cool part is that Thompson's evidence is all readily available in the public consciousness, she simply unlocks it by putting together geopolitical issues in a neat line of dominoes.
This will undoubtedly be an even more rewarding book to re-read. A lot of Thompson's ideas were nuanced and textured for me, and it took a while before her arguments fully clicked into place. The issue is that by the time what she is saying starts working, the book has moved on to a new feature of the topic. In particular her take on economics relies on rudimentary understanding of Euro Dollars, credit markets and macro fiscal policy. This is one of the drawbacks of an audiobook. However a huge advantage is that the arguments wash over the listener in such a fluid way, that a good first listen gives a holistic view of Thompson's big arguments.
However, no matter how exceptional Thompson's arguments are, the presentation is as dull as a dish without garlic. Her prose is flat the entire way through, reading more like a news bulletin than the revolutionary material it is. The ideas are so tightly packed together, with so much information that the audiobook format allows a blissful movement through facts that a concentrated reading may not. Indeed, such a reading is more likely to induce a nosebleed than a sharpening of knowledge. In the large sense of things, these issues are rather minor. This is a book which will be read and re-read, studied for countless evenings by eager undergraduates, and in certain corners of social media, turned into memes. Thompson's lack of splendour or fluidity is more than countered by a dense concentration of groundbreaking knowledge.
Overall, I would recommend this to anyone with a cursory interest in international relations. If that isn't your cup of tea, you'll still get the benefits of these arguments in a few years when they no doubt diffuse into public consciousness.
August 18, 2023
Helen Thompson's book stands tallest among the recent titles that attempt to make sense of our age of crises. Disorder is a singular work owing to the skill with which Thompson maps the intersecting relationships between energy, global monetary policy, and the state of liberal democracy.
The New Statesman
Exceptional
Gavin Jacobson, The New Statesman
A stimulating read.
Howard Davies, Literary Review
Most of us struggle to keep up [with the news], but not Helen Thompson - she doesn't merely grip each strand, but ties them together.
Tom Clark, Prospect
Bursting with ideas
James Barr, The Critic
as disturbing as it is thought-provoking
Martin Wolf, Financial Times
If you want to understand why Russia invaded Ukraine then this book will help.
Richard Lofthouse, QUAD
Deftly weaving together the history of energy, economics, and politics, Disorder restores depth to contemporary history. Refusing familiar stereotypes, Thompson offers a truly eye-opening account of our current predicament and points the way to a deeper understanding of the energy transition that lies ahead. Challenging and essential reading.
Adam Tooze, Professor of History, Director of the European Institute, Columbia University
A remarkable history of the complex ways in which the global energy economy has shaped the wealth and politics of nations. Helen Thompson's command of her subject is second to none. Disorder is revelatory, sobering, and indispensable.
Gary Gerstle, author of The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World during the Free Market Era
There could be no better guide than Helen Thompson to the turbulence of the 21st century, with its successive disruptions, from financial crisis to energy transition, from Brexit to emerging geopolitical conflicts. When history seems to have come for us with a vengeance since the turn of the millennium, this magisterial book brings into focus the key structural forces driving, not only recent events, but also the inevitable changes still to come.
Diane Coyle, Professor of Public Policy, University of Cambridge
In this absorbing and wide-ranging study Helen Thompson unravels the complex intersections of oil, money, and democracy for understanding the politics of the last century. She provides an indispensable and illuminating guide to our current predicaments.
Andrew Gamble, Professor of Politics, University of Sheffield
October 22, 2023
I first discovered Helen Thompson in the now defunct podcast 'Talking Politics' hosted by David Runciman. Runciman and Thompson conversed at an exceptionally high intellectual level, I found.
This book sure reflects her prodigious capacity to analyze world events and the politics driving them. On the surface, she neatly divides her attempt to analyze the current state of affairs in three distinct parts: geopolitics (mainly driven by energy security), the economy (mainly driven by monetary challenges), and democratic politics (where she is very much concerned with nationhood, revealing in my view some rather rightwing tendencies).
When you actually get to reading these different chapters, the analysis is not that easy to follow. She essentially goes through time three times, focusing on different elements (and sometimes referring to the energy-related questions of the time when discussing monetary battles). Thompson also assumes the reader to possess sufficient background knowledge about world events, as she often mentions certain issues in passing.
Thus she weaves many events in a world encompassing mesh that made me gasp for breath at times. While I do recognize many of the references, the ease with which Thompson ties them all together is not always very clear. She explicitly intended to forego detail in favour of synthetic interpretation. Another author would have written three books instead, choosing to provide more context.
This means that after having read it a few weeks ago, I find it hard to think of a main take-away in this book. Rather than clarifying the ginormous complexity by synthesizing its components in more accessible language, I feel more confused and anchorless than before. Then again, Thompson is not a political activist but an academic. For a book targeting a wider audience, I do believe a different approach could have been a better choice.
All in all, I can recommend the book to anyone interested in the geopolitics of energy in particular. The part on democratic politics and the relevance of nationhood I found less convincing, especially when she covers the EU. Admittedly that may be due to my own misgivings of nationalism and the horrors it leads to.
This book sure reflects her prodigious capacity to analyze world events and the politics driving them. On the surface, she neatly divides her attempt to analyze the current state of affairs in three distinct parts: geopolitics (mainly driven by energy security), the economy (mainly driven by monetary challenges), and democratic politics (where she is very much concerned with nationhood, revealing in my view some rather rightwing tendencies).
When you actually get to reading these different chapters, the analysis is not that easy to follow. She essentially goes through time three times, focusing on different elements (and sometimes referring to the energy-related questions of the time when discussing monetary battles). Thompson also assumes the reader to possess sufficient background knowledge about world events, as she often mentions certain issues in passing.
Thus she weaves many events in a world encompassing mesh that made me gasp for breath at times. While I do recognize many of the references, the ease with which Thompson ties them all together is not always very clear. She explicitly intended to forego detail in favour of synthetic interpretation. Another author would have written three books instead, choosing to provide more context.
This means that after having read it a few weeks ago, I find it hard to think of a main take-away in this book. Rather than clarifying the ginormous complexity by synthesizing its components in more accessible language, I feel more confused and anchorless than before. Then again, Thompson is not a political activist but an academic. For a book targeting a wider audience, I do believe a different approach could have been a better choice.
All in all, I can recommend the book to anyone interested in the geopolitics of energy in particular. The part on democratic politics and the relevance of nationhood I found less convincing, especially when she covers the EU. Admittedly that may be due to my own misgivings of nationalism and the horrors it leads to.
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