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304 pages, Paperback
First published December 31, 2012
"To summarize huge quantities of data.
To make better decisions.
To answer important social questions.
To recognize patterns that can refine how we do everything from selling diapers to catching criminals.
To catch cheaters and prosecute criminals.
To evaluate the effectiveness of policies, programs, drugs, medical procedures, and other innovations.
And to spot the scoundrels who use these very same powerful tools for nefarious ends.”
"Scott Carrell and James West, professors at the University of California at Davis and the Air Force Academy, exploited this elegant arrangement to answer one of the most important questions in higher education: Which professors are most effective?
The answer: The professors with less experience and fewer degrees from fancy universities. These professors have students who typically do better on the standardized exams for the introductory courses. They also get better student evaluations for their courses. Clearly, these young, motivated instructors are more committed to their teaching than the old, crusty professors with PhDs from places like Harvard. The old guys must be using the same yellowing teaching notes that they used in 1978; they probably think PowerPoint is an energy drink —except that they don't know what an energy drink is either. Obviously the data tell us that we should fire these old codgers, or at least let them retire gracefully.
But hold on. Let's not fire anybody yet. The Air Force Academy study had another relevant finding—about student performance over a longer horizon. Carrell and West found that in math and science the students who had more experienced (and more highly credentialed) instructors in the introductory courses do better in their mandatory follow-on courses than students who had less experienced professors in the introductory courses. One logical interpretation is that less experienced instructors are more likely to "teach to the test" in the introductory course. This produces impressive exam scores and happy students when it comes to filling out the instructor evaluation.
Meanwhile, the old, crusty professors (whom we nearly fired just one paragraph ago) focus less on the exam and more on the important concepts, which are what matter most in follow-on courses and in life after the Air Force Academy.
Clearly we need to evaluate teachers and professors. We just have to make sure that we do it right. The long-term policy challenge, rooted in statistics, is to develop a system that rewards a teacher's real value added in the classroom.
"But let's drill down for a moment on just one example of the kinds of things that the statisticians working in the windowless basement at corporate headquarters can figure out. Target has learned that pregnancy is a particularly important time in terms of developing shopping patterns. Pregnant women develop "retail relationships" that can last for decades. As a result, Target wants to identify pregnant women, particularly those in their second trimester, and get them into their stores more often. A writer for the New York Times Magazine followed the predictive analytics team at Target as it sought to find and attract pregnant shoppers.
The first part is easy. Target has a baby shower registry in which pregnant women register for baby gifts in advance of the birth of their children. These women are already Target shoppers, and they've effectively told the store that they are pregnant. But here is the statistical twist: Target figured out that other women who demonstrate the same shopping patterns are probably pregnant, too. For example, pregnant women often switch to unscented lotions. They begin to buy vitamin supplements. They start buying extrabig bags of cotton balls. The Target predictive analytics gurus identified twenty-five products that together made possible a "pregnancy prediction score." The whole point of this analysis was to send pregnant women pregnancy-related coupons in hopes of hooking them as long-term Target shoppers.
How good was the model? The New York Times Magazine reported a story about a man from Minneapolis who walked into a Target store and demanded to see a manager. The man was irate that his high school daughter was being bombarded with pregnancy-related coupons from Target. "She's still in high school and you're sending her coupons for baby clothes and cribs? Are you trying to encourage her to get pregnant?" the man asked.
The store manager apologized profusely. He even called the father several days later to apologize again. Only this time, the man was less irate; it was his turn to be apologetic. "It turns out there's been some activities in my house I haven't been completely aware of," the father said. "She's due in August."
The Target statisticians had figured out that his daughter was pregnant before he did.
That is their business . . . and also not their business. It can feel more than a little intrusive. For that reason, some companies now ask how much they know about you. For example, if you are a pregnant woman in your second trimester, you may get some coupons in the mail for cribs and diapers—along with a discount on a riding lawn mower and a coupon for free bowling socks with the purchase of any pair of bowling shoes. To you, it just seems fortuitous that the pregnancy-related coupons came in the mail along with the other junk. In fact, the company knows that you don't bowl or cut your own lawn; it's merely covering its tracks so that what it knows about you doesn't seem so spook"
“Data are to statistics what a good offensive is to a star quarterback.”
“The standard deviation is the descriptive statistic that allows us to assign a single number to this dispersion around the mean.”
“Statistics cannot be any smarter than the people who use them. And in some cases, they can make smart people do dumb things.”