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Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
Audible Audiobook
– Unabridged
The widening gap between rich and poor means dealing with one big, uncomfortable truth: If you're not at the top, you're at the bottom.
The global labor market is changing radically thanks to growth at the high end and the low. About three quarters of the jobs created in the United States since the great recession pay only a bit more than minimum wage. Still, the United States has more millionaires and billionaires than any country ever, and we continue to mint them.
In this eye-opening audiobook, renowned economist and best-selling author Tyler Cowen explains that phenomenon: High earners are taking ever more advantage of machine intelligence in data analysis and achieving ever-better results. Meanwhile, low earners, who haven't committed to learning or to making the most of new technologies, have poorer prospects. Nearly every business sector relies less and less on manual labor, and this fact is forever changing the world of work and wages. A steady, secure life somewhere in the middle is over.
With The Great Stagnation, Cowen explained why median wages stagnated over the last four decades; in Average is Over he reveals the essential nature of the new economy, identifies the best path forward for workers and entrepreneurs, and provides listeners with actionable advice to make the most of the new economic landscape. It is a challenging and sober must-listen - but ultimately exciting and good news. In debates about our nation's economic future, it will be impossible to ignore.
- Listening Length8 hours and 42 minutes
- Audible release dateOctober 2, 2013
- LanguageEnglish
- ASINB00FKTDR2Y
- VersionUnabridged
- Program TypeAudiobook
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Product details
Listening Length | 8 hours and 42 minutes |
---|---|
Author | Tyler Cowen |
Narrator | Andrew Garman |
Whispersync for Voice | Ready |
Audible.com Release Date | October 02, 2013 |
Publisher | Recorded Books |
Program Type | Audiobook |
Version | Unabridged |
Language | English |
ASIN | B00FKTDR2Y |
Best Sellers Rank |
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Customers find the book readable and thought-provoking, noting it provides food for thought on every page and serves as a good starting point for discussions. They appreciate its value for money and positive pacing, with one customer highlighting its conceptually innovative look at offshoring. The insights receive mixed reactions, with some finding them great while others say there's not much substance. The chess content receives criticism, with several customers noting the author's obsession with the game.
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Customers find the book very good and fun to read, with one customer noting its engaging footnotes.
"...Nonetheless I consider this book an essential read, especially if you are interested in politics or economics or automation or science or chess...." Read more
"...Well worth reading...." Read more
"...And bogus. In sum, decent read, no answers; if you're looking for them, move on -- and let me know if you find any." Read more
"...The style of Mr. Cowen is easy to read but I had expected a bit more scientific hardware in it...." Read more
Customers find the book thought-provoking, noting that it provides food for thought on every page and serves as a good starting point for discussions.
"...The other constant theme is the rise of the GMs. Excellent discussion about how and why the greatest chess is played by man-machine combinations...." Read more
"...It’s not brilliant but it is thought provoking and the quality of the writing and the breadth of Cowen’s various chapters makes it a crisp, fun read." Read more
"...Interesting and original. Cowen is more convincing on some points, not all. Sometimes spotty but nicely written, and easily read...." Read more
"...I like the writer's style and it can be very captivating...." Read more
Customers find the book worth its price, with one mentioning it's a very nice read for those interested in economics.
"...And Chapter 12 is worth the price of the book (as some other reviewer has already said)...." Read more
"...But in this book the journey is well worth it even if the destination is questionable...." Read more
"...I believe his views were well argued, and that made the book worth the price...." Read more
"...Chapter 12 was worth the price of the book to me...." Read more
Customers appreciate the pacing of the book, with one noting its good outline and another highlighting its conceptually innovative look at offshoring.
"...Chapter 9 is a conceptually innovative look at offshoring (not nearly as big a problem as is often supposed according to Cowen) and immigration..." Read more
"...of the writing and the breadth of Cowen’s various chapters makes it a crisp, fun read." Read more
"...economic conditions are presented in an interesting and seemingly accurate fashion; however, the past performance of futurists is skewed toward..." Read more
"...An important book about the future of America and a good outline if where the winners and losers are likely to be in the next couple of decades." Read more
Customers have mixed opinions about the book's insights, with some finding it thought-provoking and informative, while others feel it lacks substance.
"...-like recovery from the depths of the recession, this book is a cornucopia of ideas about a diverse number of aspects of our life both now and in..." Read more
"...His references and beliefs are well documented, 25% of the book are references-- it's well-known that Cowen may be the most well-read person on the..." Read more
"...; it is the maddening use of his love for chess which makes this book almost unreadable, at least for someone who considers chess boring and who..." Read more
"...If, like me, you are a Cowen fan, you'll find here the most comprehensive exegesis of how he sees "things" developing over the next, say, 25..." Read more
Customers have mixed reactions to the chess content in the book, with some finding it engaging while others find it excessive and boring.
"...He seems obsessed with the game of chess!!!..." Read more
"...First, he uses way too many chess analogies. Over 10% of the book talks about chess which becomes very tedious...." Read more
"...And way too much on chess :)" Read more
"...more or aimlessly over the surface of important issues, with obsessive focus on chess along with myriad futurological speculations based on little..." Read more
Top reviews from the United States
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- Reviewed in the United States on April 22, 2014Format: HardcoverVerified PurchaseTyler Cowen is a writer, blogger, and an economist. It is in the latter role that he is foremost although his influential blog, Marginal Revolution, is renowned and I would certainly recommend it. He has written five books, not counting textbooks, and his latest is Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation. While the title tells you about the main theme of the book I found that, beyond the economics of our current snail-like recovery from the depths of the recession, this book is a cornucopia of ideas about a diverse number of aspects of our life both now and in the future.
There are three Parts to the book which focus on first, the growing divide between those who earn more, much more than average and those who are below-average earners; second, the importance of machines and, in particular, games in our future; and third, the changing nature of work.
The opening chapters establish some of the important themes for the book by describing the current environment of stagnation and making the claim, that will be supported by examples throughout the book, that "new technologies already emerging will lead us out of" the current stagnant economy. In fact the economy is not stagnant for everyone, for those who have already adapted and are involved in the "right" sectors of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM), in particular the growth in computers, the internet, and most importantly intelligent machines. Cowen also introduces the metaphor of Chess that returns again and again throughout the book. You do not need to be an expert in the game to understand the power of intelligent machines that can 'crunch' the data necessary to defeat grandmasters every, every time they are challenged.
"As intelligent analysis machines become more powerful and more commonplace, the most obvious and direct beneficiaries will be the humans who are adept at working with computers and with related devices for communication and information processing. If a laborer can augment the value of a major tech improvement by even a small bit, she will likely earn well. (p 21)
He supports this with examples from areas like the growth of cell phones in both quantity and quality, the changes brought about by super-computers that play chess and for several years have been significantly better than the best grandmasters, and the changing nature of work with examples from companies at the forefront of the new age like Google and Amazon. The tests given prospective employees at Google are described and they seem like something out of a trial for Mensa. Are they easy?
"There's a whole book titled Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? by William Poundstone. A few minutes reading it will make the answer clear to most readers, even if the word smart is not exactly the right word (Picasso was a genius but I doubt he could have landed a job at Google's Mountain View headquarters)." (p 35)
The days when you could just show up, role up your sleeves and start selling or doing any job are dwindling.
The changes discussed, documented, and commented upon in the first part of the book carry over into the latter two parts. There are and will be more changes to the nature of how you obtain a job --note the impact of social networking websites like Facebook or LinkedIn-- and your workplace whether it is an office, a factory or a sales counter. That the days of the lone scientist are over seems even more true as the complexity of machines as tools grows exponentially. Education faces changes as well due to the impact of the world of new machines. Cowen discusses the rise of MOOCS (massive online courses), information blogs, and the ubiquity of avenues for online education. But there is more.
"It is not just formal online education and blogs. Apps. TED lectures on YouTube, Twitter, reading Wikipedia, or just learning how to work and set up your iPad are all manifestations of this new world of competitive education, based on interaction with machine intelligence. These new methods of learning are all based on the principles of time-shifting (watch and listen when you want), user control, direct feedback, the construction of online communities, and the packaging of information into much smaller bits than the traditional lecture or textbook chapter." (p 181)
Late in the book Cowen discusses the potential changes for his own profession, the 'dismal science' of Economics. He anticipates that theoretical models will be challenged by more and more data-driven approaches. He says (and as someone with an Economics degree I read with interest) it will go as follows:
"(a) much better data, (b) higher standards for empirical tests, and (c) lots of growth in complex theory but not matched by a corresponding growth in impact. Mathematical economics, computational economics, complexity economics, and game theory continue to grow, as we would expect of a diverse and specialized discipline, but they are if anything losing relative ground in terms of influence. Economics is becoming less like Einstein or Euclid, and more like studying the digestive system of a starfish." (p 222)
The economics profession is like other social sciences and, like the economy as a whole, will be changing in ways that both take advantage and depend upon ever more powerful and complex computing and communication devices. There is much more in this challenging compendium of facts and ideas that will change our world. The direction of this change will determine where you and I will be and what we will do in the age of intelligent machines. In Average is Over you get one very knowledgeable economist's glimpse into that future.
- Reviewed in the United States on October 10, 2013Format: KindleVerified PurchaseAverage is Over starts where the Great Stagnation ended. The Great Stagnation tried to explain why incomes have been stagnant since 1970. Tyler's hypothesis was that the low hanging fruit, the easier inventions, are over. Not only that, the game changing inventions are over. He famously quipped: would you rather have your flush toilet or your ipad?
He probably has never asked that question to a real audience. If we take the ipad to stand for the internet, the ecology, access to almost every book ever written, access to all that information, and it's either the ipad or no internet at all, what would the answer be? Would you keep your flush toilet or your ipad? I'm sure most would choose the ipad. From personal experience, living in a country where the long drop is regularly encountered when camping, missing the flush toilet is not that big a deal. It's inconvenient, but living without the internet would be amputating a part of your brain.
But now Tyler takes on a second, and newer feature of income statistics: the income for the top is rising, while the bottom remains stagnant. Why is that? Charles Murry in Coming Apart demonstrated that the behaviour at the top is very different from the behaviour at the bottom. The top marries, stays married, is more religious, and finishes school, while at the bottom live is lived with little regard for traditional morals.
Tyler Cowen takes a more technological approach: incomes at the top will be rising even more than before, and the effect will spread to about 10% or 15% of the population. The driver for this will be smart machines. Tyler Cowen does not believe in AI as traditional understood: true intelligence. That might be a very long way off. But he believes in machines that can complement humans, outperforming them in certain tasks. You will do well, if you have an affinity and personality to work with these computers. Affinity is some kind of aptitude with a very broad meaning, it does not mean programmer.
Tyler Cowen bases this prediction on his observation of computer chess and how far that has come. The human/computer team now outperforms any other. That's definitely a fascinating part of the book, and will be new to most people.
As a summary: this is definitely one of the important books of our time to read. And please give a copy to your children.
But ultimately his account is somewhat unsatisfactory. When Artificial Intelligence research started, chess was one of its main ambitions as this surely demonstrated intelligence: humans did not and could not calculate all the possible paths. Computers from that time, the 60s, couldn't do either, so surely if a computer could play chess it would be one step towards intelligence.
We're 40 years later now, and it appears that yes, chess is computable. And it didn't require any intelligence in the sense ordinarily understood. And this is true for Jeopardy as well.
But how many tasks are amendable by throwing raw calculation power at it? Besides these two examples Tyler does do no more than hint at the future.
The second thing I keenly miss is the moral dimension. Isn't the biggest change since the 1970s the rejection of Biblical morals? Not in the sense that citizens didn't always live up to them, but that the most visible citizens now publicly reject those morals, and the state actively encourages and subsides destructive lifestyles. As Charles Murray ably demonstrated: no, not every lifestyle works.
It seems to me that the main difference in income, for the average citizen, is explained by how well they obey the ten commandments. I fear for the day where you have a machine in your ear telling you it's time to leave the wife of your youth, or that you would succeed in committing adultery right now. It may be calculated 100% correct. But it's not impeccable.
Top reviews from other countries
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Antoni Rabassa VaquerReviewed in Spain on December 9, 2013
3.0 out of 5 stars SUPERFICIAL
Format: HardcoverVerified PurchaseESPERABA MAS DE ESTE LIBRO. ENCUENTRO QUE FALTA PROFUNDIZAR EN LOS EFECTOS SOCIO-ECONOMICOS A NIVEL MACRO, QUE SE QUEDA DEMASIADO EN EL PLANO MICRO Y NO EXTRAPOLA SUS CONCLUSIONES AL NIVEL SUPERIOR.
- Puja MehrotraReviewed in India on June 16, 2021
2.0 out of 5 stars Not good
Format: PaperbackVerified PurchaseNot good
-
DeltaReviewed in Germany on June 29, 2014
5.0 out of 5 stars Lesenswertes Buch eines genialen Ökonomen
Format: HardcoverVerified PurchaseIn der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung wurden sowohl das Buch als auch der Autor empfohlen. Daher bedurfte es keiner großen Überlegungen, mir dieses Buch zu kaufen. Meine Erwartungen wurden in jeder Hinsicht erfüllt. Die Auseinandersetzung mit den Problemen der Lohnentwicklung, Gewinnern und Verlierern auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und des Wiedererlernens der Bildung/Ausbildung u.v.m. ist auch für den vorgebildeten Laien in verständlicher Form geführt.
Wer sich jenseits trockener Statistiken mit brennenden Themen der Wirtschaft beschäftigen möchte, kommt an Tyler Coven nicht vorbei.
Dies ist mit ein Grund, mir auch die weiteren bisher von ihm erschienenen Bücher zu kaufen.
- Ed O'TooleReviewed in Canada on September 18, 2021
5.0 out of 5 stars Good price
Format: HardcoverVerified PurchaseGood price
- MYATESReviewed in the United Kingdom on June 14, 2025
5.0 out of 5 stars Prescient book for current genAI times
Format: KindleVerified PurchaseFast read. Enjoyed the content on how intelligent machines can augment human productivity. Prescient book for current times of genAI. Enjoyed examples from chess.