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Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update Paperback – Illustrated, May 27, 2004
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“[This book] helped launch modern environmental computer modeling and began our current globally focused environmental debate . . . . a scientifically rigorous and credible warning.”—The Nation
In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global ‘overshoot,’ or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update.
Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet.
Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes.
In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste.
Written in refreshingly accessible prose, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development.
- Print length338 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherChelsea Green
- Publication dateMay 27, 2004
- Dimensions6.01 x 0.91 x 8.98 inches
- ISBN-10193149858X
- ISBN-13978-1931498586
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Editorial Reviews
From Publishers Weekly
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Review
Briefly, humanity has overshot the limits of what is physically and biologically sustainable. That overshoot WILL lead to the collapse of the planetary environment's ability to support not only our species but much of the rest of the biosphere if we do not act rapidly and effectively to reduce our footprint. These conclusions provide reasons for both optimism and alarm . . . We have a choice: the human experiment, possibly even the biological experiment, that is life on this planet can yet succeed and persist in a sustainable way. But to do so will require our species as whole consciously and deliberately to take immediate, remediating steps, now, seriously and adequately to address the issues we have so far failed to do so effectively. It IS up to us.”—John N. Cooper, for AxisofLogic.com
"In 1972, The Limits to Growth was published as a clarion call to begin changing the way the world worked so we safely made it to 2050-2070. The authors were clear that the path of change needed to begin "now" so we made a course correction within the next 30 years. Sadly, the message they wrote got badly misunderstood and by 30 years later, scores of critiques to the book claimed the authors warned that the world would run out of oil and other scare resources by 1990 or 2000. It is time for the world to re-read Limits to Growth! The message of 1972 is far more real and relevant in 2004 and we wasted a valuable 30 years of action plans by misreading the message of the first book."—Matthew R. Simmons, energy analyst and founder, Simmons & Company International, The world's largest energy investment banking practice
About the Author
Jorgen Randers is professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, where he works on climate issues and scenario analysis. He was previously president of BI and deputy director general of WWF International (World Wildlife Fund) in Switzerland. He lectures internationally on sustainable development and especially climate, and is a nonexecutive member of a number of corporate boards. He sits on the sustainability councils of British Telecom in the UK and the Dow Chemical Company in the United States. In 2006 he chaired the cabinet-appointed Commission on Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions, which reported on how Norway can cut its climate gas emissions by two-thirds by 2050. Randers has written numerous books and scientific papers, and was coauthor of The Limits to Growth in 1972, Beyond the Limits in 1992, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update in 2004, and 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years in 2011. Randers lives in Oslo, Norway.
Dennis Meadows is emeritus professor of systems policy and social science research at the University of New Hampshire, where he was also director of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research. In 2009 he received the Japan Prize for his contributions to world peace and sustainable development. He has authored ten books and numerous educational games, which have been translated into more than 15 languages for use around the world. He earned his Ph.D. in Management from MIT, where he previously served on the faculty, and has received four honorary doctorates for his contributions to environmental education.
Product details
- Publisher : Chelsea Green
- Publication date : May 27, 2004
- Edition : Illustrated
- Language : English
- Print length : 338 pages
- ISBN-10 : 193149858X
- ISBN-13 : 978-1931498586
- Item Weight : 2.31 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.01 x 0.91 x 8.98 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #85,738 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- Customer Reviews:
About the authors
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Donella H. Meadows was a pioneering environmental scientist, author, teacher, and farmer widely considered ahead of her time. She was one of the world's foremost systems analysts and lead author of the influential Limits to Growth. She was Adjunct Professor of Environmental Studies at Dartmouth College, the founder of the Sustainability Institute and co-founder of the International Network of Resource Information Centers.
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Customers find the book readable and stimulating, with one noting it provides an amazing explanation of the present world condition. They appreciate its focus on limits to growth.
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Customers find the book readable, with one noting it serves as an excellent educational resource.
"...deeper understanding on how every thing is linked together, and a clear picture of how when one variable of the system changes, it will effect all..." Read more
"No problems." Read more
"...Excellent book to read for your own education, and in some ways, it serves as an antidote to the popular culture's love affair with growth and..." Read more
"...It is easy to read and understand and all of the facts set forth in the book are supported." Read more
Customers appreciate the book's explanations, with one noting it provides a framework for understanding complex issues, while another highlights its sound logic and holistic approach.
"...The book gives a model and a deeper understanding on how every thing is linked together, and a clear picture of how when one variable of the system..." Read more
"...lay it out with their updated model and give you a semi-academic vocabulary and analysis that provides a strong critique versus stupid unplanned..." Read more
"The LTG 30-year update is a more rigorous analysis of all the variables affecting the global ecosystem than the original 1972 study...." Read more
"...30-year update to "Limits to Growth" is possibly the most thought-provoking environmental book I've ever read...." Read more
Customers find the book interesting and stimulating.
"An interesting read that offers a great example of a complex model...." Read more
"...Read this book and you will be a wiser, more cognizant, more responsible individual...." Read more
"...Still, a good, interesting read. Four stars. Rick says the PhD's at MIT are much smarter than he is." Read more
"...It had a lot of interesting points...." Read more
Customers appreciate the book's focus on limits to growth.
"...The authors make an excellent point that infinite growth (people, food, water, economy, etc.) is simply not possible...." Read more
"...In perspective, the Limits to Growth was quite accurate; the computer models used at that time were state-of-the-art...." Read more
"...The authors explain very well why there are limits to growth. It points out a high potential for a gloomy future...." Read more
"...Limits to growth exists, its real and we will have to face with it...." Read more
Top reviews from the United States
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- Reviewed in the United States on October 23, 2010Format: PaperbackVerified PurchaseI think this book very clearly and understandably describes the bigger problems humanity is facing. I think it is honestly the best book I have read related to Sustainable Development. It is able to cut through the noice around all the discussions of climate change, no climate change, peak oil or no peak oil, overpopulation e.t.c. The book gives a model and a deeper understanding on how every thing is linked together, and a clear picture of how when one variable of the system changes, it will effect all the other variables. I truly cherish this introduction to system dynamics as well.
The authors do not claim to have have all the answers, or the perfect model of the world, but he book stills gives a very good picture of linkage, cause and effect in a complex system. Nothing can be said with certainty about future developments, it all rests on the choices we make. This is true for each individual, but also true for the choices we collectively make as a society. What is also true is that whatever we choose, it we will have an effect, and outcome, and we all make these decisions within a systems with certain rules, equations and feedback loops. The rules, equations and feedback-loops for how we operate as a society can be changed by choice, but the responses of the natural world, for what we depend for all we have, can not so easily be changed.
I hope to see this book as obligatory reading for any higher education or management training in the future; it really would help the public discourse stay on topic of the really critically discussions, and not so easily get sidetracked and polarized by claims from different special interest groups within the realm of Sustainable Development.
- Reviewed in the United States on April 23, 2015Format: KindleVerified PurchaseIt makes so much sense---we are in overshoot on our way to collapse. In such simple and convincing ways, these process engineers lay it out with their updated model and give you a semi-academic vocabulary and analysis that provides a strong critique versus stupid unplanned growth ecomonics. And they show how making substantial yet not impossible changes could change the fortunes and bring us back to a sustainable balance. Do they overly-discount the potential benefits of new technology yet to be discovered to prevent collapse? I hope to hell they do because if there is anything that is clear, it is that human nature has 1) blind faith in new technology to save us (e.g. how else could nuclear power/waste be justified?) and 2) there is no way that humans will make substantial changes prior to collapse--balance will only be achieved afterwards and of course that means it will be less-rational, more-drastic, less-controllable, more-expensive, more-devastating, etc.
- Reviewed in the United States on October 21, 2008Format: PaperbackVerified PurchaseMain points are these:
- People normally use only cause-effect associations (input - output models).
- They need to understand that the effect can "send a message" to the input, and this can only be viewed using dynamic models.
- They do not think that all exponential process are terminated by
the activation of strong negative limiting feedback forces.
- The first edition was wrong and this edition will be wrong concerning the timing of the events because:
1) no one knows who will play the game (China phenomenon for example would be thought as an "impossible" event viewed from 1972 perspective)
Notice however that venerated Yellow River has received a very large pollution charge in these "growth" years.
2) It is very difficult (impossible) to set accurate parameters for the model.
But the MAIN point is:
The conclusions (although the timing is not precise) are true, or have a high probability of occur, so that, as the credit growth busted, the pollution growth and the end of natural resources can spoil the world.
In this case, we will not be able to borrow pure water, pure air, and food etc... from GOD or from a Natural Resources Central Bank.
------------------------------------------
PS: So that the only way to not spoil the world is to control several key
parameters (population growth, natural resources usage, pollution etc...) and some are interdependent.
- Reviewed in the United States on March 31, 2014Format: KindleVerified PurchaseThe LTG 30-year update is a more rigorous analysis of all the variables affecting the global ecosystem than the original 1972 study. A principal difference, of course, is that advances in computing power have far exceeded probably even the most optimistic expectations in the 1970s, and we can see with greater precision exactly that the effects of our activities are on our tiny planet. Another difference is that many of the trends studied in the initial work can now be confirmed 30 years later.
The authors' conclusion is that we have not done much to ameliorate the damage we are doing to Earth, and implicitly to ourselves, by what we have done in the intervening 30 years. We still produce too many offspring, consume too many finite resources, despoil to much of nature's waste-absorbing capacity, and seem to be stuck in a system that inexorably demands still more of the same.
But all is not lost. Read this in conjunction with Jordan Randers follow-on study entitled "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years". He uses the same "systems approach" used in this 30-year update. There are solutions, but they will require an informed body politic, thoughtful leadership, and an honest assessment of public policy from all of us.
Top reviews from other countries
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ケイ太郎Reviewed in Japan on January 2, 2016
5.0 out of 5 stars Limits to Growth Donella H. Meadows
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchaseローマン会議以来の新しいもの。基本路線はあまり変わりませんが、成長に限界がある事実は学問的にも、現実的にも重大で、地球上の生命に課せられた大きな課題なのです。
- SilvaReviewed in Spain on March 20, 2017
5.0 out of 5 stars Ilaria Malisan
Format: PaperbackVerified PurchaseEye-opening report, conclusion supported by consistent data and a linear flow of thought, at a divulgative level. I believe this is a must read, given our current situation.
- MartinReviewed in the United Kingdom on February 3, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars essential reading for anyone concerned about the future of humanity.
Format: PaperbackVerified PurchaseVery clear and well researched. The forward relates it to the world of 2020+. The limits to growth have been overshot.
- Mark MilanReviewed in Canada on December 10, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars A must-read, though it's depressing.
Format: PaperbackVerified PurchaseWe are destroying this planet.
That was the conclusion the original authors came to back in 1972 (!), and the world has gone on with a "business as usual" approach. The numbers from the 1972 report are tracking today, and depressingly, our world is headed down some dark paths with regards to resources, pollution, population, and food.
- An Earth scientistReviewed in the Netherlands on May 24, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars an important reading for nearly everyone
Format: PaperbackVerified PurchaseThis is the type of book I wish I had heard of 15 years ago. If you are vaguely interested in planet Earth and the survival of our species in a world of limited resources, do not hesitate... buy the book. It will not cover absolutely everything you need to know, but it is a great start to understand systems science and its applications. I think it will inspire you. And it's an easy read too!