Kindle
$12.99
Available instantly
Audible Logo Audiobook
$0.00
with membership trial
Hardcover
$6.53
Paperback
$16.70
Buy new:
-12% $16.70
FREE delivery Wednesday, May 15 on orders shipped by Amazon over $35
Ships from: Amazon.com
Sold by: Amazon.com
$16.70 with 12 percent savings
List Price: $19.00

The List Price is the suggested retail price of a new product as provided by a manufacturer, supplier, or seller. Except for books, Amazon will display a List Price if the product was purchased by customers on Amazon or offered by other retailers at or above the List Price in at least the past 90 days. List prices may not necessarily reflect the product's prevailing market price.
Learn more
Get Fast, Free Shipping with Amazon Prime FREE Returns
FREE delivery Wednesday, May 15 on orders shipped by Amazon over $35. Order within 3 hrs 36 mins
Only 18 left in stock (more on the way).
$$16.70 () Includes selected options. Includes initial monthly payment and selected options. Details
Price
Subtotal
$$16.70
Subtotal
Initial payment breakdown
Shipping cost, delivery date, and order total (including tax) shown at checkout.
Ships from
Amazon.com
Ships from
Amazon.com
Sold by
Amazon.com
Sold by
Amazon.com
Returns
30-day easy returns
30-day easy returns
This item can be returned in its original condition for a full refund or replacement within 30 days of receipt.
Read full return policy
Returns
30-day easy returns
This item can be returned in its original condition for a full refund or replacement within 30 days of receipt.
Read full return policy
Payment
Secure transaction
Your transaction is secure
We work hard to protect your security and privacy. Our payment security system encrypts your information during transmission. We don’t share your credit card details with third-party sellers, and we don’t sell your information to others. Learn more
Payment
Secure transaction
We work hard to protect your security and privacy. Our payment security system encrypts your information during transmission. We don’t share your credit card details with third-party sellers, and we don’t sell your information to others. Learn more
$13.26
Get Fast, Free Shipping with Amazon Prime FREE Returns
FREE delivery May 24 - June 4 on orders shipped by Amazon over $35
Or fastest delivery May 23 - 30
$$16.70 () Includes selected options. Includes initial monthly payment and selected options. Details
Price
Subtotal
$$16.70
Subtotal
Initial payment breakdown
Shipping cost, delivery date, and order total (including tax) shown at checkout.
Access codes and supplements are not guaranteed with used items.
Amazon book clubs early access
Loading your book clubs
There was a problem loading your book clubs. Please try again.
Not in a club? Learn more
Amazon book clubs early access

Join or create book clubs

Choose books together

Track your books
Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free.
Explore Amazon Book Clubs
Kindle app logo image

Download the free Kindle app and start reading Kindle books instantly on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.

Read instantly on your browser with Kindle for Web.

Using your mobile phone camera - scan the code below and download the Kindle app.

QR code to download the Kindle App

Follow the author

Paul Sabin
+ Follow
More books from this author
Something went wrong. Please try your request again later.

The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth's Future Paperback – Illustrated, September 30, 2014

by Paul Sabin (Author)
4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 125 ratings
See all formats and editions
{"desktop_buybox_group_1":[{"displayPrice":"$16.70","priceAmount":16.70,"currencySymbol":"$","integerValue":"16","decimalSeparator":".","fractionalValue":"70","symbolPosition":"left","hasSpace":false,"showFractionalPartIfEmpty":true,"offerListingId":"spM7mXyoV9x4Hsvx%2BikJBe9DEyY29OjlwcOM6uIa8BEZZhSjwjXt3sP0y%2BixE8ioEWNRe54iQwpz%2Bl6Yun88BbtcwMJNU4Ov2d2GzqninBcHElrHpc7wga4FVfRaJ22oVjIz7PB2dzi%2Fm9LVODzElg%3D%3D","locale":"en-US","buyingOptionType":"NEW","aapiBuyingOptionIndex":0}, {"displayPrice":"$13.26","priceAmount":13.26,"currencySymbol":"$","integerValue":"13","decimalSeparator":".","fractionalValue":"26","symbolPosition":"left","hasSpace":false,"showFractionalPartIfEmpty":true,"offerListingId":"spM7mXyoV9x4Hsvx%2BikJBe9DEyY29OjlvsJJ23fIc4yyQSaMca1kUJ4YSjZvaP47KVkqYjWSP%2FuXuSr8WanLXJGZ37Dm64E9LD7eET495yfbkd9tqBiiYd5hlw65Hh7RACLC%2FaX98j1ZELfLY48Dkltu21C8ubMnPyOBNPYIaMeqHHHsvQyfM4Ayd0o1i2rh","locale":"en-US","buyingOptionType":"USED","aapiBuyingOptionIndex":1}]}

Purchase options and add-ons

Are we headed for a world of scarce resources and environmental catastrophe, or will innovation and markets yield greater prosperity

In 1980, the iconoclastic economist Julian Simon challenged celebrity biologist Paul Ehrlich to a bet. Their wager on the future prices of five metals captured the public’s imagination as a test of coming prosperity or doom. Ehrlich, author of the landmark book The Population Bomb, predicted that rising populations would cause overconsumption, resource scarcity, and famine—with apocalyptic consequences for humanity. Simon optimistically countered that human welfare would flourish thanks to flexible markets, technological change, and our collective ingenuity. Simon and Ehrlich’s debate reflected a deepening national conflict over the future of the planet. The Bet weaves the two men’s lives and ideas together with the era’s partisan political clashes over the environment and the role of government. In a lively narrative leading from the dawning environmentalism of the 1960s through the pivotal presidential contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan and on into the 1990s, Paul Sabin shows how the fight between Ehrlich and Simon—between environmental fears and free-market confidence—helped create the gulf separating environmentalists and their critics today. Drawing insights from both sides, Sabin argues for using social values, rather than economic or biological absolutes, to guide society’s crucial choices relating to climate change, the planet’s health, and our own.
Read more Read less
Previous page
  1. Print length
    320 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Yale University Press
  4. Publication date
    September 30, 2014
  5. Dimensions
    5.25 x 1 x 8 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0300198973
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0300198973
  8. See all details
Next page
The Amazon Book Review
The Amazon Book Review
Book recommendations, author interviews, editors' picks, and more. Read it now.

Frequently bought together

The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth's Future
$16.70
Get it as soon as Wednesday, May 15
Only 18 left in stock (more on the way).
Ships from and sold by Amazon.com.
+
When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management
$11.89
Get it as soon as Wednesday, May 15
In Stock
Ships from and sold by Amazon.com.
Total price:
To see our price, add these items to your cart.
Details
Added to Cart
One of these items ships sooner than the other.
Show details Hide details
Choose items to buy together.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Valuable . . . clear-eyed."—Jonathan V. Last, The Wall Street Journal

"In his new book, The Bet, Paul Sabin has managed to write a work of serious historical scholarship about a vexing political issue—and make it read like a character-driven novel."—David Leonhardt, The New York Times, Economix blog

"Provides surprising insights for anyone involved in addressing the world’s 'wicked problems.' Most of all, it gave me new perspective on why so many big challenges get bogged down in political battles rather than being focused on problem-solving."—Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, "The Best Books I Read in 2013," TheGatesNotes.com


"[A] gem of a book . . . Sabin provides a fascinating and highly readable archaeology of political science in America."—Publishers Weekly, starred review

"Not so fast, argues historian Paul Sabin, who in The Bet attempts to use their wager to narrate parallel biographies of Simon and Ehrlich, as well as a US political environmental history of the past half-century. The result is a revealing tale."—Jon Christensen, Nature



"Informative, charming, and highly readable."—Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution

"A wonderful new book . . . and a fantastic introduction to population-resource debates of the late-twentieth century. It will be the required first reading on this topic in my future courses."—Roger Pielke, Jr., The Energy Collective

"An illuminating, judicious, and engaging examination of the conflict between environmentalists and their critics over the past five decades."—Glenn C. Altschuler, Tulsa World

"A joy to read; Sabin weaves a vivid historical narrative rich with classic characters. . . . The Bet is both a cautionary tale and a call to order."—Erle Ellis, Chronicle of Higher Education

"[A] good introduction to the history of modern environmentalism and an object lesson in how such debates become polarized and then locked in place."—Sharon Kingsland, Journal of American History

A Best Science Book of 2013, New Scientist

Won the Samuel and Ronnie Heyman Prize given by Yale University. Founded to honor outstanding scholarship by a junior faculty member in the Humanities.

"The Bet provides an important contribution to canonical works in environmental history and environmental studies. It is a remarkable story of a critical moment in the environmental movement, and Sabin has told it expertly."—Frederick R. Davis, Florida State University

"In telling the story of Ehrlich and Simon's bet, Paul Sabin offers a compelling analysis of two very different, but equally important, ways of understanding the future of humans and the environment that still shape the world of environmental politics today."—Jay Turner, Wellesley College

"Paul Sabin's The Bet is wonderfully conceived, sharply focused and entertainingly executed. In the story of a famous bet between two men of large egos, he manages to touch on the most basic problems we face in trying to come to terms with our current environmental crisis."―Richard White, author of Railroaded: The Transcontinentals and the Making of Modern America

"A refreshingly readable and consistently insightful portrait of the ferocious American politics of global population and resources since the 1960s – and of two implacable enemies who strangely resembled one another."―J.R. McNeill, author of Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the 20th-century World

"Paul Sabin vividly and creatively explores the  half century battle over environmental policy by telling the story of the clash—and famous 'bet'—between Paul Ehrlich, the prophet of population doom, and Julian Simon, the advocate of technology and  markets. My own wager is that The Bet will also provide a very valuable and timely framework for understanding today’s great environmental debates.  In fact, I will double down on that bet!"—Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer-prize winning author of The Quest:  Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World and of The Prize

About the Author

Paul Sabin is associate professor, Department of History, Yale University. He was founding director of the Environmental Leadership Program and is the author of Crude Politics: The California Oil Market, 1900–1940.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Yale University Press; Illustrated edition (September 30, 2014)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 320 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0300198973
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0300198973
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.2 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.25 x 1 x 8 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 125 ratings

About the author

Follow authors to get new release updates, plus improved recommendations.
Paul Sabin

Paul Sabin

Brief content visible, double tap to read full content.
Full content visible, double tap to read brief content.

Paul Sabin is the Randolph W. Townsend, Jr. Professor of History at Yale University. He is the author of PUBLIC CITIZENS: THE ATTACK ON BIG GOVERNMENT AND THE REMAKING OF AMERICAN LIBERALISM (2021); THE BET: PAUL EHRLICH, JULIAN SIMON AND OUR GAMBLE OVER EARTH'S FUTURE (2013); and, CRUDE POLITICS: THE CALIFORNIA OIL MARKET, 1900-1940 (2005). Before joining the Yale faculty, Paul served as founding executive director of the non-profit Environmental Leadership Program.

Customer reviews

4.5 out of 5 stars
4.5 out of 5
125 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

FPman
5.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating and (surprisingly!) entertaining
Reviewed in the United States on August 16, 2013
Verified Purchase
This book is essential reading for environmentalists, economists, students of public policy, and anybody interested in modern history. It tells the story of a bet between an environmentalist and an economist. As an environmentalist, it has made me question assumptions about the relationship between population growth and scarcity that has been a driver of the environmental movement for the last 40 years. If folks on both sides of environmental politics would read this book, we might be able to actually move forward.

What made this book such a treat to read, however, is the entertaining style in which it is written. It is loaded with anecdotes about Paul Erlich and Julian Simon, who made the bet that is the centerpiece of the story, and the people around them that populated the political landscape. For example, I loved the description of Jimmy Carter's White House maintenance staff, nicknamed the "thermostat police," visiting people's offices to make sure they hadn't reset the thermostats, and of President Carter sweating through cabinet meetings to set an example for the rest of the country. This kind of amusing story gives the rather serious topic a lighter side, too.
39 people found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
sien
4.0 out of 5 stars Excellent book comparing ideas and people
Reviewed in the United States on January 1, 2014
Verified Purchase
The Bet (2013) by Paul Sabin is a really fine book that looks at the different beliefs of the ecologist and author of The Population Bomb Paul Ehrlich and the economist Julian Simon and their famous bet on the price of natural resources.
Sabin is an academic at Yale who teaches environmental history. He introduces the book by describing his own environmentalism which is a very honest and clear way of clarifying his own biases.
The book then looks at Paul Ehrlich’s rise to fame as a prophet of doom. Ehrlich’s childhood, career as a butterfly biologist and his rise a ecological activist is catalogued. Ehrlich’s book ‘The Population Bomb’ and his series of dire predictions and rise to fame in the 1960s and 1970s is described with insight.
Sabin then looks at Julian Simon’s childhood and career. Interestingly both Simon and Ehrlich grew up in suburban New Jersey to upwardly mobile Jewish parents. Simon went to Harvard then obtained an MBA and then a PhD at the University of Chicago. Simon initially worked on using marketing to reduce population growth but then investigated the assumption that increased population was a problem and came to the opposite conclusion.
Next the rise of environmentalism in the 1970s is described. The creation of the Environmental Protection Agency by Richard Nixon and the passage of various other laws and the rise of Jimmy Carter and his own environmental beliefs along with the oil crisis are discussed.
The book then gets to the famous bet between Simon and Ehrlich where Simon challenged Ehrlich to pick 5 metals that he thought would rise over the next decade. Ehrlich comprehensively lost the bet after declaring that taking up the bet would be easily getting free money. The Reagan presidency and Reagan ‘s scepticism of the benefits of further environmental regulation is summarised.
Sabin also points out that while the general thrust of the Carter was toward environmentalism and Reagan toward the market that Carter deregulated the energy industry substantially and Reagan signed on to the Montreal Protocol to reduce CFCs.
Then the increasing polarization of environmental debates between pro-market optimists and environmental catastrophists is nicely described. The contribution of Bjorn Lomborg in fact checking the debate, coming out generally on Simon’s side and then being demonised by environmentalists is added to the discussion. Despite being substantially wrong Ehrlich was far more successful in winning prizes and notoriety than Simon.
Sabin concludes the book by praising the contributions of both Ehrlich and Simon while pointing out that Ehrlich was categorically wrong. He credits Ehrlich with allowing increasing environmental regulations to be passed while crediting Simon with pointing out that the price mechanism and human ingenuity have shown Malthusians to be wrong for the past 200 years. Sabin would like to see more of a fusion between the two positions.
It’s an excellent book that both environmentalists and others will enjoy and get a lot from. Sabin has done an excellent job in writing a very readable, interesting book.
16 people found this helpful
Helpful
 Report
David
5.0 out of 5 stars Betting on our planet
Reviewed in the United States on August 12, 2013
Verified Purchase
This book is about a small bet on a big topic. In practice, the bet between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich was about the prices of a basket of commodities. But the bet was really about the relationship between humankind and earth: were humans making their planet unlivable? Ehrlich, best known as the author of "The Population Bomb" thought that higher commodity prices would be a sign of increasing strains on natural resources, and proof of the growing precariousness of human existence. The economist Simon, on the other hand, but his money on technological innovation - even if commodities became scarcer, new techniques and technologies would lead to adjustments and demands and prices.

Sabin's book is well-written, making this dramatic and important subject easy reading. He appreciates both the big picture - what was really at stake in this bet - and the small details about the two bettors and how they came to make that wager.

It's a great book for students and teachers, for environmentalists and economists, and for anyone interested in the fate of human life on earth.
24 people found this helpful
Helpful
 Report

Top reviews from other countries

Translate all reviews to English
Jaime Durán
5.0 out of 5 stars Una apuesta por la humanidad del futuro
Reviewed in Mexico on March 16, 2023
Verified Purchase
Tenía mucho interés en profundizar en el fondo de quienes participaron en esta apuesta. En general, tiendo más a coincidir con Simon que con Ehrlich, pero debo reconocer que ambos incurren en posturas que llevan la discusión a los extremos basados exclusivamente en la visión de sus propias ciencias (la biología y la economía)
Report
David E. Giles
1.0 out of 5 stars One Star
Reviewed in Canada on March 15, 2015
Verified Purchase
Very disappointing.
One person found this helpful
 Report