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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Kindle Edition

by Carmen M. Reinhart (Author), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Author) Format: Kindle Edition
4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 849 ratings
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A comprehensive look at international financial crises that puts more recent economic meltdowns into perspective

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing—and recovering—their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"—claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes—from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much—or how little—we have learned.

Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts—as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur.

An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.

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Editorial Reviews

Review

Two top-notch economists provide a clear and interesting explanation of why economic crises keep occurring. Broadly speaking, downturns such as the one we are recovering from are historically associated with characteristics that should sound quite familiar to today's investors.

Review

"This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. This one belongs on everyone's shelf."―Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945

"This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models."―Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World

"This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides."―Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits

"You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow."―Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide

"I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work."―Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)

"The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. . . . And I read it [This Time is Different]."―Former President Bill Clinton, speech at Youngstown, OH, October 31, 2012

"A classic."―Nouriel Roubini

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B004EYT932
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Princeton University Press (September 11, 2009)
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ September 11, 2009
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • File size ‏ : ‎ 15786 KB
  • Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Sticky notes ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 491 pages
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 849 ratings

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  1. Kenneth S. Rogoff

    Kenneth S. Rogoff

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    Kenneth S Rogoff teaches in the Economics Department of Harvard University where he is Thomas D Cabot Professor of Public Policy.During 2001-2003 Rogoff was chief economist at the Internatonal Monetary Fund. His newest book The Curse of Cash, shows why phasing out most (except for small bills) would likely significantly reduce crime and tax evasion, while also helping central banks fight financial crises. His 2009 book, with Professor Carmen M Reinhart of the University of Maryland, was a NY Times and Amazon best seller; it exploits an extensive new database, developed by the authors over many years, and now widely used by researchers, policymakers and investor. Reinhart and Rogoff show the remarkable quantitative similarities in deep financial crises across time and regions. Rogoff's 1996 treatise with Maurice Obstfeld on the Foundations of International Macroeconomics remains the standard graduate reference in the field. His monthly column on global economic issues is published in over fifty countries and a dozen languages. He is also a frequent commentator in the media, including NPR, BBC, The Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, CNBC and Bloomberg.

    Outside economics, Rogoff was awarded the life title of international grandmaster of chess by the World Chess Federation in 1978. He is married to Natasha Lance Rogoff, and has two children, Gabriel and Juliana.

    See more on the author's page
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart

    Carmen M. Reinhart

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    Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. She received her Ph.D. from Columbia University. Professor Reinhart held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s, where she became interested in financial crises, international contagion and commodity price cycles. Subsequently, she spent several years at the International Monetary Fund. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Reinhart has served on numerous editorial boards, panels, and has testified before congress. She has written and published on a variety of topics in macroeconomics and international finance and trade including: international capital flows, exchange rates, inflation and commodity prices, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency crashes, and contagion. Her papers have been published in leading scholarly journals, including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, and the Quarterly Journal of Economics.

    Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises for over a decade. In the early 1990s, she wrote (with Guillermo Calvo) about the fickleness of capital flows to emerging markets and the likelihood of abrupt reversals--before the Mexican crisis of 1994-1995. Prior to the Asian crisis (1997-1998), she documented (with Graciela Kaminsky) the international historical links between asset price bubbles and banking crises, and how the latter could lead to currency crashes creating a "twin crisis." She identified (with Ken Rogoff) the possibility of severe economic dislocations from the sub-prime crisis in 2007. Her work is frequently featured in the financial press around the world, including The Economist, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal. She has appeared in CNN, CSPAN, BBC, and NPR, among others.

    Her latest book (with Kenneth Rogoff) entitled This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton Press) documents the striking similarities of the recurring booms and busts that have characterized financial history.

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Top reviews from the United States

Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Dissection of the different types of financial crises that can hit sovereign states.
Reviewed in the United States on March 19, 2024
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The authors are really clear in their prose- even to a non-economist like myself and they put their wealth of data to good use in making their argument. To be recommended to anyone who thinks that the last global financial crisis could never happen again.
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Chuck Mann
4.0 out of 5 stars Not what I expected, but a good book if you know what you're getting
Reviewed in the United States on March 16, 2012
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I've just finished reading This Time Is Different. I should say I `finished' reading about two thirds of the book as I skimmed or skipped the most technical portions. The book, as per its subtitle: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, bills itself as comprehensive look at sixty six countries and their financial crises over almost all of the last millennia. Either due to its marketing or my presumptions, I thought the book would be a narrative of pithy coverage of financial crises. Rather, the book is quite technical with numerous charts, graphs, and economic analysis; the first 50 pages are devoted solely to setting up the financial rubric the book will use to analyze its data points. As such, I don't recommend the book for anyone looking for a financial history, or something like The Big Short or The Lords of Finance (as I was). If you're looking for a technical, yet mostly approachable from a lay perspective, analysis of financial crises and how they relate to today, it's great.

Despite my misgivings, I do think the most valuable portion of the book (for me) was the last section which accumulated the information from past experience and applied it to the Great Recession. The book came out in 2009, so it doesn't have a great deal of information about how the late-2000s crisis turned out. Yet, the book does have a good deal of information about other major banking crises and how they ended. Obviously, this type of information is quite timely. And on this account, the current situation doesn't seem so bad, and there are signs for optimism. Major banking crises, apparently, typically raise unemployment by 7% and unemployment grows for 4.8 years, on average. The US unemployment rate (U1) rose from around 4% to 10%, about average, but unemployment has grown for only around two years. Much of this is probably due to systemic causes, but it does undercut almost all of the standard Republican-party economic voodoo, and the deranged `expansionary austerity' that has hurt much of Europe. There's a lot of analysis like this, and with a lot of the recent good economic news, it's interesting to see how that stacks up compared with past crises.

The book's most valuable message conveys is broader than just a technical comparison of the present with the past, but is apparent from the book's title: the past does repeat itself, and did so in 2007. The Great Recession was unique in certain ways, but followed a very particular pattern and carried numerous warning signs. Yet, as with many historical crises, the people in positions of power, contrary to a lot of the demonizing rhetoric heaped upon banks, regulators, politicians, etc., seem to have disregarded this history, took up the kool-aid, and really believed that this time was different. Yet, this time wasn't different, and it's folly to expect that in the future, that time will be anything but the same.
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PomanFerrari
5.0 out of 5 stars Very insightful but somewhat hard to slog through
Reviewed in the United States on July 24, 2010
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If you are an investor, you need to read this book: "This Time is Different"

The authors went through and captured data from around the world for the last 800 years to demonstrate that while financial crises are not identical, they do rhyme and have patterns that are recognizable. As someone with money on the sidelines because of all the shenanigans in the stock market (15 seconds front running, trade and cancel order in 65 microseconds), I am interested in how I should invest for my kids and retirement (if at all).

The portions of the book that stood out are:

(a) whenever banking crisis and housing bubble go hand in hand ("the twins") they tend to be very destructive as opposed to a pure stock bubble (e.g., internet bubble). See Table 10.8 at this [...]

On average, these crises last 3-6 years except for Japan, which is still ongoing for 19 years. Equity price collapses on average 56% over a duration of 3.5 years. Unemployment is usually deep and prolonged, increasing by 7% over a four year period. Output drops on average 9% over an average of 2 years.

(b) when the twins are synchronized, a sovereign debt crisis usually follows the twins. The typical sovereign debt crisis has the government exploding its debt by 86% either to bail out the bankers or to pump stimulus into the economy.

You may remember that we had the banking and housing crash in 2008. In 2010, we are now seeing signs of a sovereign debt crisis so (a) and (b) are right on schedule ... for other countries at least. But (b) has not occurred in the US at least because (1) the dollar is the reserve currency (i.e., the Windows XP in a world without Apple Mac); (2) the dollar is backed by 6000 nuclear warheads; and (3) backed by 700+ military bases around the world. On the other hand, the US is borrowing as much money as all of the countries combined in 2010 alone. At some point, someone is going to yell "fire" and then we will have a full on sovereign crisis. For now, though, everyone is yelling fire in the Greek theater, Spanish theater, Irish theater, Portugal theater and so on so we're safe .... for now.

The US' response to the crisis in 2008 was to do what Japan did and more. So don't expect this crisis to end in 3-7 years but may be much longer. This may be the first job-LOSS recovery because of the overcapacity of (1) labor in China and India; (2) manufacturing; and (3) housing. For an example, look to Japan where Japanese are outsourcing themselves into lower wage countries: [...]

The authors end with the following empirical model for the crises in (a) and (b):
Step 1 - financial liberalization. Any one with a breath can get a loan. NINJA loans (No-Income-No-Job-or-Asset)
Step 2 - stock and real estate market crashes. Iceland in 2008.
Step 3 - currency crash. This happened to Iceland in 2008.
Step 4 - inflation picks up. Again Iceland in 2010. This has not happened yet in the US because the amount of debt $100Trillion is backed by only $1Trillion in physical dollar, hence deflation.
Step 5 - peak of banking crisis - if there is no default of the banking system. The 6 US banks are too big to fail so this won't happen.
Step 6 - default on external debt or domestic debt.
Step 7 - inflation worsens, running 40%+ if step 6 occur.

Personally, I believe that the financial, insurance, and real estate (the "FIRE sector") has metasized into a virulent form of cancer. This cancer, thanks to supercomputers and derivatives, will modify the above model as follows:

Step 1 - financial liberalization.
Step 2 - stock and real estate market crashes.
STEP 3A - DEFLATION allowing bankers to buy up assets such as water purification plants, power plants, toll roads that our "betters" whom we have elected had loaded down with debts and derivatives.
Step 4A - inflation picks up for these essential assets because only the banks have access to Uncle Ben Bernankio teller window. For the rest of us, deflation in jobs, housing, employment.
Step 5A - the US becomes a corporate-kleptocracy like Italy or Spain.

If you are not vigilant, your 201K will likely turn into a 101K so best to take the above model into consideration the next time you vote or invest.

Best,

KT

"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks."

Lord Acton - who, by the way, also wrote: "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely"
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Top reviews from other countries

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Alfred Feth
5.0 out of 5 stars Historical Data
Reviewed in Canada on May 25, 2023
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Uses real historical data that demonstrates very little as debt/GDP ratio exceeds 90%.
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Cliente
5.0 out of 5 stars Data, academy
Reviewed in Italy on February 2, 2020
Verified Purchase
The book is not that easy if you don’t understand well english, but if you do it is a superbe window on 8 centuries of finance.
It contains an insane amount of data, it is very professional and comparable with an academic article
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Great book to back up your knowledge with hard facts
Reviewed in India on October 17, 2017
Verified Purchase
Authors have done a phenomenal work in putting together the data that forms the backbone of the book. Especially the data on domestic debt across countries boing back to 1800 which is was quite fascinating. Great book to back up your knowledge with hard facts. Not for some one looking for an guilde to economic history
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Rodney van Royden
4.0 out of 5 stars Great research
Reviewed in Australia on October 10, 2023
Verified Purchase
Really azppreciate the book and research. For five stars, I would have preferred a more objective perspective and unifying theme.

Plus would be interesting to see the post GFC update.
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Amazon カスタマー
5.0 out of 5 stars 翻訳版とも購入して良かった
Reviewed in Japan on December 31, 2016
Verified Purchase
内容が充実していてお勧めです。翻訳版と合わせて読むとなおさら良いです。
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