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RUSSIAN CASUALTY RATE IN CHECHNYA LIKENED TO THAT OF AFGHAN WAR

Russian soldiers are dying in the Chechnya war at a monthly rate comparable to Soviet army losses in Afghanistan, and analysts believe the fiercest fighting is yet to come.

The Russian military and government have portrayed the war–officially a campaign against terrorists–as a series of successes. Yet lost among the reports of Chechen militants being routed and villages surrendering without a fight are disturbing casualty counts among Russian troops.

Since fighting began in August in neighboring Dagestan and then moved into Chechnya, the Russians have lost at least 462 soldiers, according to official statistics. A further 1,485 Russian soldiers have been wounded.

Critics contend the casualty figures are even worse and accuse the Defense Ministry of hiding the truth. Some military watchdogs, such as the Soldiers’ Mothers Committee, suggest the actual count might be twice as high.

“They are hiding the victims from us,” said Ella Polyakova of the Mothers Committee in St. Petersburg, whose members visit military hospitals and army barracks to collect information.

So far, the soldiers’ deaths have received little media coverage. Nor have they done much to turn public opinion against what remains a popular war.

“The military learned from the last Chechen war,” Polyakova said. “Don’t show the casualties to anybody.”

In contrast with the 1994-96 Chechen war, Russian generals this time have moved cautiously and are succeeding in forcing separatist Chechen fighters to retreat from town after town.

But relentless bomb and artillery attacks have chased 225,000 civilian refugees out of Chechnya, leading human-rights groups and some Western officials to criticize what they say is excessive and indiscriminate force.

Russian officials say Grozny, the Chechen capital, is nearly surrounded.

In principle, military analysts say, it is sound strategy to bomb the Chechen fighters into retreat, push them into the mountains, surround them and then try to starve them out.

“It’s a good plan, theoretically,” said a Western military observer. “They have enough weaponry to do it.

“The question is whether their lines will be strong enough to keep the Chechens hemmed in. The Chechens are really good at finding weak spots and exploiting them, and the Russians may end up being stretched too thin.”

So far in this war, according to an analysis by the Moscow Times, Russia is losing about 132 soldiers a month. That is about half the casualty rate of the last Chechen war, the Times reported, but is nearly comparable to the rate in the 10-year war in Afghanistan, when the Soviet army lost about 137 soldiers a month.

The Afghan war, a futile conflict that many Soviet citizens likened to the Vietnam War, greatly discredited the communist regime. But backing for the latest Chechen war runs high.

Russians remain incensed over a series of terrorist bombings in Russian cities that killed nearly 300 civilians; though no one has been formally charged, officials attribute the bombings to Chechen terrorists.

Kidnappings, arms trafficking and other unchecked criminal activity in Chechnya, as well as incursions by Chechen fighters into neighboring Dagestan, have also fueled Russian desires to subdue Chechnya once and for all.

Even the former Soviet dissident and Nobel laureate writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn came out over the weekend with words of support.

“Today we have been attacked,” Solzhenitsyn said in a nationally televised interview. “(Russia) cannot deny itself the right to self-defense.”

Critics of the war say public opinion will change if the body counts go higher, as military observers expect.

Russian officers acknowledge that the Chechen fighters waiting to defend Grozny and smaller cities such as Urus-Martan are dug in and well-equipped. They also admit that Chechen fighters have been able to launch ambushes on what is ostensibly Russian-controlled territory.

“For the last month and a half, all we’ve been hearing is that federal forces have the terrorists surrounded, are approaching Grozny and have taken the high ground,” said Ruslan Aushev, president of the neighboring republic of Ingushetia who has called on Moscow to negotiate with the Chechen leadership.

“What will they say when they really hit the mountains?” asked Aushev, a former commander in the Soviet army. “It’s going to be a drawn-out, stubborn and bloody war. The war, as such, is yet to come.”