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The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society
*2021 Financial Times Best Book of the Year*
A bold exploration and call-to-arms over the widening gap between AI, automation, and big data—and our ability to deal with its effects
We are living in the first exponential age.
High-tech innovations are created at dazzling speeds; technological forces we barely understand remake our homes and workplaces; centuries-old tenets of politics and economics are upturned by new technologies. It all points to a world that is getting faster at a dizzying pace.
Azeem Azhar, renowned technology analyst and host of the Exponential View podcast, offers a revelatory new model for understanding how technology is evolving so fast, and why it fundamentally alters the world. He roots his analysis in the idea of an “exponential gap” in which technological developments rapidly outpace our society’s ability to catch up. Azhar shows that this divide explains many problems of our time—from political polarization to ballooning inequality to unchecked corporate power. With stunning clarity of vision, he delves into how the exponential gap is a near-inevitable consequence of the rise of AI, automation, and other exponential technologies, like renewable energy, 3D printing, and synthetic biology, which loom over the horizon.
And he offers a set of policy solutions that can prevent the growing exponential gap from fragmenting, weakening, or even destroying our societies. The result is a wholly new way to think about technology, one that will transform our understanding of the economy, politics, and the future.
A bold exploration and call-to-arms over the widening gap between AI, automation, and big data—and our ability to deal with its effects
We are living in the first exponential age.
High-tech innovations are created at dazzling speeds; technological forces we barely understand remake our homes and workplaces; centuries-old tenets of politics and economics are upturned by new technologies. It all points to a world that is getting faster at a dizzying pace.
Azeem Azhar, renowned technology analyst and host of the Exponential View podcast, offers a revelatory new model for understanding how technology is evolving so fast, and why it fundamentally alters the world. He roots his analysis in the idea of an “exponential gap” in which technological developments rapidly outpace our society’s ability to catch up. Azhar shows that this divide explains many problems of our time—from political polarization to ballooning inequality to unchecked corporate power. With stunning clarity of vision, he delves into how the exponential gap is a near-inevitable consequence of the rise of AI, automation, and other exponential technologies, like renewable energy, 3D printing, and synthetic biology, which loom over the horizon.
And he offers a set of policy solutions that can prevent the growing exponential gap from fragmenting, weakening, or even destroying our societies. The result is a wholly new way to think about technology, one that will transform our understanding of the economy, politics, and the future.
403 pages, Kindle Edition
First published September 7, 2021
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 90 reviews
September 22, 2021
This book produces distinct mixed feelings. It's both bad and good at the same time.
Let's get the good in there first. Although not a particularly original observation, Azeem Azhar's portrayal of the exponential rise of technology in the modern world is important, both to emphasise why it is genuinely different from previous technological breakthroughs and also because Azhar does not simply give us either a 'tech is wonderful' or 'we are all doomed' portrayal of the impact of the internet, 3D printing and more on our businesses and lives.
While he does sometimes over-promise on what the technology is likely to deliver any time soon, Azhar notes, for example, that self-driving cars are a lot harder to implement on winding European roads that straight wide Californian ones. But more importantly, he is able to give us some balance. We see both the benefits, for example, to consumers and companies of the gig economy, but the potential downsides for workers. And we get some first hints at solutions. While I'm not sure that Azhar's suggestions for ways to mitigate the worst and make the most of the best of new technology go far enough, at least the suggestions are there and need to be noted.
So far, so good, then. Unfortunately, though, while Azhar's ideas may be interesting, the writing is not great. What we get feels like a wading-through-treacle dull business book. Even the publisher doesn't seem to know what it is - the jacket classifies it as a technology book, while its press release calls it a business book. It should have been a good, tightly-written science and technology book to really shine. As is true all too often with business books, some chapters don't have much more content than a magazine article, but manage to say it in far more words. The whole thing could do with a serious edit and restructure. It doesn't help that there's rather a lot of 'what I've achieved' referencing, which doesn't necessarily enamour Azhar to his readers.
Mixed feelings, then. There's good stuff in there, but you have to work to mine it from the dross.
Let's get the good in there first. Although not a particularly original observation, Azeem Azhar's portrayal of the exponential rise of technology in the modern world is important, both to emphasise why it is genuinely different from previous technological breakthroughs and also because Azhar does not simply give us either a 'tech is wonderful' or 'we are all doomed' portrayal of the impact of the internet, 3D printing and more on our businesses and lives.
While he does sometimes over-promise on what the technology is likely to deliver any time soon, Azhar notes, for example, that self-driving cars are a lot harder to implement on winding European roads that straight wide Californian ones. But more importantly, he is able to give us some balance. We see both the benefits, for example, to consumers and companies of the gig economy, but the potential downsides for workers. And we get some first hints at solutions. While I'm not sure that Azhar's suggestions for ways to mitigate the worst and make the most of the best of new technology go far enough, at least the suggestions are there and need to be noted.
So far, so good, then. Unfortunately, though, while Azhar's ideas may be interesting, the writing is not great. What we get feels like a wading-through-treacle dull business book. Even the publisher doesn't seem to know what it is - the jacket classifies it as a technology book, while its press release calls it a business book. It should have been a good, tightly-written science and technology book to really shine. As is true all too often with business books, some chapters don't have much more content than a magazine article, but manage to say it in far more words. The whole thing could do with a serious edit and restructure. It doesn't help that there's rather a lot of 'what I've achieved' referencing, which doesn't necessarily enamour Azhar to his readers.
Mixed feelings, then. There's good stuff in there, but you have to work to mine it from the dross.
October 9, 2021
I’ve been a tech guy my whole life, but I typically don’t enjoy books on technology, but this one was incredible. Azeem managed to take a topic that can sometimes be dull and boring and make it relevant for anyone who picks up a copy. The book starts by breaking down the accelerated pace of technological advances due to innovation, but then he writes about all the ways this affects our daily lives. We’re all affected by technology, and Azhar discusses how this affects our jobs, the environment, how we interact with one another, and so much more. I think my favorite part about this book is that the author is extremely optimistic while using facts and data to back his arguments. This is a much-needed book in a time where many people are afraid of the advances we’re making with technology.
December 31, 2021
The central thesis is that tech grows exponentially, but humans adapt linearly. Azhar calls this the 'exponential gap.' Human adaptation is slow through legislation, habits, producing physical goods, adapting to new increases in productivity and getting disrupted by companies that do it better is slow too.
This gap is the topic of this book. I'm not sure I think the book answers the critical question of _how_ it can be minimized. There's lots of interesting points, stats and supporting evidence for this gap.. but, I don't really need to be convinced. I'm missing a bit more revelation for the 100page+ investment. Might be that I read too much about all this already.
I think if you know little about 3D-printing, AI, self-driving cars, automation, robots, etc., then this book's probably worth the read!
This gap is the topic of this book. I'm not sure I think the book answers the critical question of _how_ it can be minimized. There's lots of interesting points, stats and supporting evidence for this gap.. but, I don't really need to be convinced. I'm missing a bit more revelation for the 100page+ investment. Might be that I read too much about all this already.
I think if you know little about 3D-printing, AI, self-driving cars, automation, robots, etc., then this book's probably worth the read!
January 5, 2024
Technology and IT are not the same thing, but there is some overlap between the two in this book. It summarizes how information technology (IT) came to be, from the beginning to the present, and what the expansion of technology and IT means for society, governments, businesses, and individuals.
There are interesting concepts, although not new to those who work in the field or have read articles about it. In short, it is an interesting book, but one that does not deliver all that it promises and summarizes concepts that are not very original. However, it is well written, fairly easy to refer to, and once you decide to read it, it goes quickly.
There are interesting concepts, although not new to those who work in the field or have read articles about it. In short, it is an interesting book, but one that does not deliver all that it promises and summarizes concepts that are not very original. However, it is well written, fairly easy to refer to, and once you decide to read it, it goes quickly.
October 16, 2021
Non-fiction like this is typically too dry, even when well written, for me to score 5 points, but this was really well done. The author's voice was good for narration, so kudos. And the subject areas were laid out in a logical order with their impact to the premise clear. A very compelling audio book.
October 26, 2021
Best book I've read this year!
January 30, 2022
Loved the insights here - especially those challenging trends that have developed in recent history due to the rise of technology.
1.) Technology will reduce the labor force, and lead to job scarcity.
Although true to some extent, much of AI and machine learning's integrations (thus far) has been surrounding two things:
a) The enhancement of tasks - making human labor much more efficient and effective (think Wazefor gig-workers in the transport economy).
b) The elimination of menial tasks - leading to the up-skilling of the workforce (and the subsequent push for governments and policy-makers to incentivize mass education in underdeveloped societies) and the creation of complementary new jobs (the secondary market of maintenance and repair for new technology - again, jobs that see a higher baseline of understanding). Although this may be a reduction in labor, the immediate effects serve as further motivation for economies to up-skill their workforce, thus minimizing the disparity between high and low income earners, essentially providing a blueprint for a more sustainable and financially-healthy economy.
2.) The law of diminishing marginal returns.
- An Economics 101 (or Econ 100.2 for that matter) principle that, in simple fashion, explains why some corporations can't expand larger than, say, 20% market share. There comes a turning point wherein excess production leads to declining benefits - mostly due to the sheer size of the corporation. As much as this is true for traditional corporations, the exponential age introduces firms that, often times, reap 90% of the market - the likes of Google and Facebook operate in an almost monopolistic fashion, acquiring any small fish that threaten their reign. This is because, unlike traditional firms, technology is heavily scalable; the advantages brought about by getting so much more returns through increasingly efficient processes is unheard of, with the regulations and policies that control them even more difficult to come by.
1.) Technology will reduce the labor force, and lead to job scarcity.
Although true to some extent, much of AI and machine learning's integrations (thus far) has been surrounding two things:
a) The enhancement of tasks - making human labor much more efficient and effective (think Wazefor gig-workers in the transport economy).
b) The elimination of menial tasks - leading to the up-skilling of the workforce (and the subsequent push for governments and policy-makers to incentivize mass education in underdeveloped societies) and the creation of complementary new jobs (the secondary market of maintenance and repair for new technology - again, jobs that see a higher baseline of understanding). Although this may be a reduction in labor, the immediate effects serve as further motivation for economies to up-skill their workforce, thus minimizing the disparity between high and low income earners, essentially providing a blueprint for a more sustainable and financially-healthy economy.
2.) The law of diminishing marginal returns.
- An Economics 101 (or Econ 100.2 for that matter) principle that, in simple fashion, explains why some corporations can't expand larger than, say, 20% market share. There comes a turning point wherein excess production leads to declining benefits - mostly due to the sheer size of the corporation. As much as this is true for traditional corporations, the exponential age introduces firms that, often times, reap 90% of the market - the likes of Google and Facebook operate in an almost monopolistic fashion, acquiring any small fish that threaten their reign. This is because, unlike traditional firms, technology is heavily scalable; the advantages brought about by getting so much more returns through increasingly efficient processes is unheard of, with the regulations and policies that control them even more difficult to come by.
December 18, 2021
Azeem Azhar’s “The Exponential Age” sets out to discuss how accelerating technology is transforming business, politics and society.
I’d hoped that the book would present a number of unique ideas into what we can expect in the future and the long-term impacts and implications of this continued growth. I was looking for an authority’s insights on how the continued exponential growth of technology can affect us positively and negatively - to help plan ahead.
The author talks about the importance of technology changes in four domains - biology, energy, computing and manufacturing. (Page 33.)
Within biology, new technology is showing that we can alter cellular activity through processes like implants, genetic engineering, CRISPR etc.. As such, is technology changing the thinking of our youth that they can change gender? Is it responsible for the rise of Trans people?
Or with energy and transportation, some of the founders of the technology giants - Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk - are spending big money on space exploration. Is it realistic to think that we can place colonies on Mars? Or are these just vanity projects?
The Exponential Age didn't have much in the way of future implications and indicated action. This is the book's main problem. With exponential growth, what is written today will be - almost by definition - largely irrelevant tomorrow. So to fulfill the mission of outlining how tech is transforming business, politics and society, the author and book needed to talk much more about the future.
While this may be a blunt point of view, he author failed to achieve it mission.
That's why I don't recommend this book.
I’d hoped that the book would present a number of unique ideas into what we can expect in the future and the long-term impacts and implications of this continued growth. I was looking for an authority’s insights on how the continued exponential growth of technology can affect us positively and negatively - to help plan ahead.
The author talks about the importance of technology changes in four domains - biology, energy, computing and manufacturing. (Page 33.)
Within biology, new technology is showing that we can alter cellular activity through processes like implants, genetic engineering, CRISPR etc.. As such, is technology changing the thinking of our youth that they can change gender? Is it responsible for the rise of Trans people?
Or with energy and transportation, some of the founders of the technology giants - Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk - are spending big money on space exploration. Is it realistic to think that we can place colonies on Mars? Or are these just vanity projects?
The Exponential Age didn't have much in the way of future implications and indicated action. This is the book's main problem. With exponential growth, what is written today will be - almost by definition - largely irrelevant tomorrow. So to fulfill the mission of outlining how tech is transforming business, politics and society, the author and book needed to talk much more about the future.
While this may be a blunt point of view, he author failed to achieve it mission.
That's why I don't recommend this book.
March 27, 2024
This book is really two books. The first describes four areas (Computing, Biology, Energy and Manufacturing) where change is exponential. Most of us know about Moore's law in which the former CEO of Intel described a phenomenon in which the computing power of chips would double in a short time while the price would decline. But many have not heard of Wright's law - which describes a similar trend in manufacturing - that as we produce more of something we learn how to do it better. But what Azhar points out is that these trends are not just limited to computing or manufacturing. One example struck me. As our capabilities in solar panels and battery technology continues to improve it is not hard to imagine a time in the not distant future where the need for utilities would disappear. Azhar has some great discussion on the power of additive manufacturing (3-D printing to manufacture goods).
But there is a second part of the book where I think his speculation is a bit more problematic. Obviously as these technologies continue to evolve many systems will change - it won't just be the lessened need for power plants. One could easily think that as driverless cars evolve people will have less need for garages; insurance will change; and accidents may be reduced. But the author limits his thinking to outdated models. For example, he tries to imagine how the big social media companies should be treated like public utilities. From my perspective on the one hand he argues that power companies may be a thing of the past while he adopts a notion of utility status for media companies. That seems odd to me and I think ultimately wrong.
At the same time he buys into the arguments that workers in the GIG economy have been exploited and that the solution is for more union activity. He cites survey data that 71% of UBER drivers are satisfied and yet thinks those drivers are underpaid. There is obviously a tradeoff between the added autonomy that GIG workers get and changes in the way those workers are compensated. The nonsense from the California legislature (with AB5)was soon overturned when voters had a chance to weigh in.
Azhar constantly goes back to the principle of subsidiarity - getting decisions and power closest to where things happen. SO I think some of his preliminary conclusions are a reflection of the exponential nature of changes both in those four fields and in how we as a society deal with them.
Russ Roberts of EconTalk just did a podcast with Azhar (https://www.econtalk.org/living-with-...) which is well worth the listen. And in spite of my concerns about some of his "solutions" this book is a wonderful opportunity to think about what might happen next.
But there is a second part of the book where I think his speculation is a bit more problematic. Obviously as these technologies continue to evolve many systems will change - it won't just be the lessened need for power plants. One could easily think that as driverless cars evolve people will have less need for garages; insurance will change; and accidents may be reduced. But the author limits his thinking to outdated models. For example, he tries to imagine how the big social media companies should be treated like public utilities. From my perspective on the one hand he argues that power companies may be a thing of the past while he adopts a notion of utility status for media companies. That seems odd to me and I think ultimately wrong.
At the same time he buys into the arguments that workers in the GIG economy have been exploited and that the solution is for more union activity. He cites survey data that 71% of UBER drivers are satisfied and yet thinks those drivers are underpaid. There is obviously a tradeoff between the added autonomy that GIG workers get and changes in the way those workers are compensated. The nonsense from the California legislature (with AB5)was soon overturned when voters had a chance to weigh in.
Azhar constantly goes back to the principle of subsidiarity - getting decisions and power closest to where things happen. SO I think some of his preliminary conclusions are a reflection of the exponential nature of changes both in those four fields and in how we as a society deal with them.
Russ Roberts of EconTalk just did a podcast with Azhar (https://www.econtalk.org/living-with-...) which is well worth the listen. And in spite of my concerns about some of his "solutions" this book is a wonderful opportunity to think about what might happen next.
October 13, 2022
Wow, there is so much in this book, I don't think I have ever made so many highlights! It attempts to see into the future and look at where technology will lead us, both the good and the bad side. Not a mention of the metaverse, which I found a bit odd, but otherwise fascinating. Definitely worth a re-read of my highlights at least!
February 17, 2022
This book was an exceptionally insightful examination of ever accelerating technologic advances as contrasted with the gap in individual and societal institution advancement.
October 18, 2021
A really interesting read. Plenty of food for thought.
October 19, 2021
Azeem has done an amazing job of bringing together a vast amount of information and distilling it into a compelling story that helps explain the challenges and opportunities we face today. Great reading for anyone interested in the nexus between policy, technology and business.
October 14, 2021
The exponential gap is a great concept by Azeem Azhar what challenges are in front of us and his research gives inspiration how we might tackle these challenges ahead.
October 1, 2021
This is a book that every policy maker should read, and indeed anyone who is trying to understand the chaotic state of our world will find it a powerful analysis. Azhar writes exceptionally well and provides a clear analysis of what is happening as the information age accelerates. The lessons with which he concludes should be criteria we apply daily to our own activities and to those of government and corporate leaders. A short but essential read!!
October 28, 2021
Loved it. One of the best books I read to cover tech impacts on life.
October 2, 2021
Brilliant, engaging and thought-provoking on re-localisation, minilateralism (Aukus, anyone?) and digital citizenship.
October 14, 2021
There is an increasing gap between the inherent nature of emerging technologies and our understanding of them. The gap can be particularly pronounced in cases where quickly developing technologies are combined.
I think this book would be fun for people who agree with the thesis, but I'm not sure it would be convincing for anyone else. There are a good number of nuggets that are fun to ponder.
I think this book would be fun for people who agree with the thesis, but I'm not sure it would be convincing for anyone else. There are a good number of nuggets that are fun to ponder.
April 18, 2022
Tons of unoriginal material (done first and better with Wikinomics, Second Machine Age, etc.). If you have a decent Twitter feed, you will probably have more of the same info. No original thoughts. Only good for executives who have no clue about technology and want buzz words to spout.
December 30, 2021
A great book to understand the challenges and opportunities of the current Exponential Age, highly recommended
March 23, 2022
Notes taken while reading the book:
What are examples of technological innovations?
- Page 64: Smartphones. In 2010, 300 million smartphones were sold. In 2015, 1.5 billion smartphones were sold.
- Page 64: Social media. An example: In 2020, https://twitter.com/TheEconomist had more than 25 million followers. In 2020, the Economist had 900,000 readers of the print version.
- Pages 3 and 7: Computing. Quantum computing.
- Page 3 and 8: Artificial intelligence. Machine learning.
- Page 38: Solar power has become the cheapest source of electricity in 2/3 of the world.
- Page 39: From 2010 to 2019 the cost of generating electricity from wind turbines declined 13% per year.
- Page 39: From 2010 to 2019 the cost of lithium-ion storage dropped by 19% per year.
- Pages 43 and 176: 3D printing. Most 3D printing methods develop at a pace between 16.7% and 37.6% per year. The global market for 3D printing was USD 10 billion in 2019.
- Page 88: Manufactured products such as household conveniences or houses will soon be produced by 3D printers.
- Pages 3 and 7: Innovations in biology.
- Page 3: Innovations in manufacturing.
- Page 7: Innovations in electric vehicles.
- Page 7: Innovation in space flight.
- Page 127: Machine vision systems scan photos of damaged cars to evaluate the likely cost of repairs.
- Page 170: Vertical farms - using AI to control lighting, water and heat - as well as solar energy on the roof of the building.
- Page 172: Electric vehicles will lend their stored electricity to homes when it is dark.
What are other examples of exponential growth:
- Page 75: The spread of the H1N1 virus that caused the Spanish flu followed an exponential curve in its growth phase.
- Page 75: The inflation rate in Weimar Germany in the 1920s as well as the inflation rate more recently in Zimbabwe and Venezuela followed exponential curves in their growth phases.
- Page 78: The COVID pandemic followed an exponential curve in its growth phase. Between mid February 2020 and the end of February 2020, 60 new cases were discovered in the US. In the next two weeks there were 3,753 new cases. The two weeks after that 109,995 new cases. By mid November 150,000 cases were being added per day.
What are examples of companies - based on digital technologies - that succeed? Why do they succeed?
- Page 55: https://www.lemonade.com/, an American insurance company, uses satellite imaging to estimate the risk of forest fires before it offers home insurance policies.
- Page 57: A new mobile app might thousands of lines of code. Developers writing the apps don't type that code themselves. Rather, they will find standardized components developed by others. Examples: Someone developing a travel-booking app might use a calendar component developed for a meeting-scheduling app.
- Page 59: https://github.com/ lets 56 million software developers collaborate across 60 million different software projects.
- Page 64: By the end of 2016, 6 companies based on exponentially developing digital technologies were among the 10 largest companies on earth: Apple, Tencent, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook.
- Page 66: At the heart of Amazon's success is an annual research and development budget that reached USD 36 billion in 2019.
- Page 88: Every interaction with a company or government is, or soon will be, handled by software powered by a machine-learning algorithm.
- Page 88: Our education and healthcare are increasingly delivered through AI-enabled technologies.
- Page 90: Tackling climate change requires more radical tech, not less.
- Page 96: The network effect, which means that the addition of every new member of the network increases the value of the network for everyone is, is one reason why some digital technologies / digital platforms grow very large. People go to the platform where everyone is. That platform then becomes the dominant choice of people to go to / use. Digital technologies / digital platforms benefit more from network effects than earlier innovations, because the Internet is easily accessible for everyone.
- Page 102: Digital platforms are very capital-efficient. Example: Airbnb hosts more overnight guests than any hotel chain, yet owns no hotels.
- Page 103: Strong values of digital technologies / digital platforms are intangible - not physical. Examples: For Google it is the search engine. For Facebook it is the data that represents the network of friends. For Apple it is the designs and the brand identity. For Netflix it is the algorithms that recommend what users should view next.
- Page 117: Breakthrough inventions are more likely to come from individual inventors and small teams.
- Page 137: Manufacturing companies that adopt technologies become more profitable and more productive. They also create more jobs.
- Page 141: Automation leads to more jobs, not less.
- Page 176: AI and other technologies make it possible, for the first time in decades, to manufacture products in places where labour costs are high. Example: Robotics, automation and 3D printing made it possible for Adidas to produce shoes in Bavaria, Germany.
- Page 241: The UK Biobank collates the medical and genomic data of 500,000 people. Each person has consented to researchers using their data to better understand and prevent serious disease. Any legitimate researcher can access this resource. The goal of the UK Biobank is to enable novel scientific discovery with the consent of those who have contributed their data.
What challenges does strong technological development bring for governments?
- Page 9: Technology companies, which become bigger than was previously thought possible, dominate markets. Monopoly situations develop.
- Page 82: Institutions such as branches of government, international organizations and churches are not made to adapt to rapid societal change. They move slowly.
- Page 116: Economies, which are dominated by large companies, become progressively less dynamic.
- Page 147: In the exponential age, formal employees are relatively decreasing in number. The technologies of this age create new ways of working - with the smartphone and the task matching algorithm allowing firms to rely on pools of freelance talent. As the labor laws have not caught up, there is a growing inequality between gig workers and official employees.
- Page 151: Methods of surveillance are increasingly common. People do not know when they are being watched.
- Page 156: In 2020, the average pay of a software engineer working for Uber was USD 147,000 per year. The average pay of a driver was USD 20 per hour.
- Page 159: In times of rapid change, a safety net becomes critical. An experiment in Helsinki showed that people receiving universal basic income increased wellbeing and lowered levels of food distress.
- Page 234: Greater transparency would allow people to observe how decisions by tech elites are made and identify what effect they have on us.
- Page 238: Pricing and compensating people for our personal data would help reform the data economy.
- Page 238: People need rights for their data. We need control, authority and oversight over our data.
- Page 253: We are moving towards a world dominated by platforms. These platforms will increasingly manage workers by algorithms optimized for output and efficiency. Workers need to be guaranteed dignity, flexibility and security, so they can continuously adapt to the rapidly changing workplace without their lives becoming unbearable.
What challenges does strong technological development bring to human beings?
- Page 4: When rapid, technological change arrives, it first brings turmoil. Then people adapt. Eventually, we learn to thrive.
- Page 9: Increasingly, people do work via gig platforms.
- Page 11: Increasingly, people communicate with each other over privately owned platforms.
- Page 86: Is it reasonable to use a smartphone during dinner?
- Page 137: To use new technology, it is necessary for people to continuously learn about how to use technology.
- Page 158: Work in the exponential wage is volatile. Continuous learning is necessary.
What are examples of technological innovations?
- Page 64: Smartphones. In 2010, 300 million smartphones were sold. In 2015, 1.5 billion smartphones were sold.
- Page 64: Social media. An example: In 2020, https://twitter.com/TheEconomist had more than 25 million followers. In 2020, the Economist had 900,000 readers of the print version.
- Pages 3 and 7: Computing. Quantum computing.
- Page 3 and 8: Artificial intelligence. Machine learning.
- Page 38: Solar power has become the cheapest source of electricity in 2/3 of the world.
- Page 39: From 2010 to 2019 the cost of generating electricity from wind turbines declined 13% per year.
- Page 39: From 2010 to 2019 the cost of lithium-ion storage dropped by 19% per year.
- Pages 43 and 176: 3D printing. Most 3D printing methods develop at a pace between 16.7% and 37.6% per year. The global market for 3D printing was USD 10 billion in 2019.
- Page 88: Manufactured products such as household conveniences or houses will soon be produced by 3D printers.
- Pages 3 and 7: Innovations in biology.
- Page 3: Innovations in manufacturing.
- Page 7: Innovations in electric vehicles.
- Page 7: Innovation in space flight.
- Page 127: Machine vision systems scan photos of damaged cars to evaluate the likely cost of repairs.
- Page 170: Vertical farms - using AI to control lighting, water and heat - as well as solar energy on the roof of the building.
- Page 172: Electric vehicles will lend their stored electricity to homes when it is dark.
What are other examples of exponential growth:
- Page 75: The spread of the H1N1 virus that caused the Spanish flu followed an exponential curve in its growth phase.
- Page 75: The inflation rate in Weimar Germany in the 1920s as well as the inflation rate more recently in Zimbabwe and Venezuela followed exponential curves in their growth phases.
- Page 78: The COVID pandemic followed an exponential curve in its growth phase. Between mid February 2020 and the end of February 2020, 60 new cases were discovered in the US. In the next two weeks there were 3,753 new cases. The two weeks after that 109,995 new cases. By mid November 150,000 cases were being added per day.
What are examples of companies - based on digital technologies - that succeed? Why do they succeed?
- Page 55: https://www.lemonade.com/, an American insurance company, uses satellite imaging to estimate the risk of forest fires before it offers home insurance policies.
- Page 57: A new mobile app might thousands of lines of code. Developers writing the apps don't type that code themselves. Rather, they will find standardized components developed by others. Examples: Someone developing a travel-booking app might use a calendar component developed for a meeting-scheduling app.
- Page 59: https://github.com/ lets 56 million software developers collaborate across 60 million different software projects.
- Page 64: By the end of 2016, 6 companies based on exponentially developing digital technologies were among the 10 largest companies on earth: Apple, Tencent, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook.
- Page 66: At the heart of Amazon's success is an annual research and development budget that reached USD 36 billion in 2019.
- Page 88: Every interaction with a company or government is, or soon will be, handled by software powered by a machine-learning algorithm.
- Page 88: Our education and healthcare are increasingly delivered through AI-enabled technologies.
- Page 90: Tackling climate change requires more radical tech, not less.
- Page 96: The network effect, which means that the addition of every new member of the network increases the value of the network for everyone is, is one reason why some digital technologies / digital platforms grow very large. People go to the platform where everyone is. That platform then becomes the dominant choice of people to go to / use. Digital technologies / digital platforms benefit more from network effects than earlier innovations, because the Internet is easily accessible for everyone.
- Page 102: Digital platforms are very capital-efficient. Example: Airbnb hosts more overnight guests than any hotel chain, yet owns no hotels.
- Page 103: Strong values of digital technologies / digital platforms are intangible - not physical. Examples: For Google it is the search engine. For Facebook it is the data that represents the network of friends. For Apple it is the designs and the brand identity. For Netflix it is the algorithms that recommend what users should view next.
- Page 117: Breakthrough inventions are more likely to come from individual inventors and small teams.
- Page 137: Manufacturing companies that adopt technologies become more profitable and more productive. They also create more jobs.
- Page 141: Automation leads to more jobs, not less.
- Page 176: AI and other technologies make it possible, for the first time in decades, to manufacture products in places where labour costs are high. Example: Robotics, automation and 3D printing made it possible for Adidas to produce shoes in Bavaria, Germany.
- Page 241: The UK Biobank collates the medical and genomic data of 500,000 people. Each person has consented to researchers using their data to better understand and prevent serious disease. Any legitimate researcher can access this resource. The goal of the UK Biobank is to enable novel scientific discovery with the consent of those who have contributed their data.
What challenges does strong technological development bring for governments?
- Page 9: Technology companies, which become bigger than was previously thought possible, dominate markets. Monopoly situations develop.
- Page 82: Institutions such as branches of government, international organizations and churches are not made to adapt to rapid societal change. They move slowly.
- Page 116: Economies, which are dominated by large companies, become progressively less dynamic.
- Page 147: In the exponential age, formal employees are relatively decreasing in number. The technologies of this age create new ways of working - with the smartphone and the task matching algorithm allowing firms to rely on pools of freelance talent. As the labor laws have not caught up, there is a growing inequality between gig workers and official employees.
- Page 151: Methods of surveillance are increasingly common. People do not know when they are being watched.
- Page 156: In 2020, the average pay of a software engineer working for Uber was USD 147,000 per year. The average pay of a driver was USD 20 per hour.
- Page 159: In times of rapid change, a safety net becomes critical. An experiment in Helsinki showed that people receiving universal basic income increased wellbeing and lowered levels of food distress.
- Page 234: Greater transparency would allow people to observe how decisions by tech elites are made and identify what effect they have on us.
- Page 238: Pricing and compensating people for our personal data would help reform the data economy.
- Page 238: People need rights for their data. We need control, authority and oversight over our data.
- Page 253: We are moving towards a world dominated by platforms. These platforms will increasingly manage workers by algorithms optimized for output and efficiency. Workers need to be guaranteed dignity, flexibility and security, so they can continuously adapt to the rapidly changing workplace without their lives becoming unbearable.
What challenges does strong technological development bring to human beings?
- Page 4: When rapid, technological change arrives, it first brings turmoil. Then people adapt. Eventually, we learn to thrive.
- Page 9: Increasingly, people do work via gig platforms.
- Page 11: Increasingly, people communicate with each other over privately owned platforms.
- Page 86: Is it reasonable to use a smartphone during dinner?
- Page 137: To use new technology, it is necessary for people to continuously learn about how to use technology.
- Page 158: Work in the exponential wage is volatile. Continuous learning is necessary.
November 30, 2022
Who's this for:
It's more of an "overview". Much seems relatively clear if you are in the technology/startups space. Nothing new per se. But that probably is to be expected from the title. I maybe expected more "technical" things in the book.
There's nothing terrible wrong with the book and generally well written but there's also not much new or insightful. The gist of the recommendation how to deal with exponential companies is:
- Transparency of workings of companies and what they do with our data: To prevent that they do nasty things. In parts something like GDPR in Europe.
- Interoperability of their service: Requirements for APIs to use the services.
- Control over own personal data: Again GDPR.
- Commonality (like im tragedy of the commons). E.g. Data commons: UK Bio bank or Open source software.
In the end this is regulation that in parts already is active (but is ignored and paid of with lawyers, fees, etc.). If that doesn't sound alien to you, then you probably can skip the book. If you want to know more about why this is important to prevent, at least some technologies, roll over the population, then it might be a good read for you.
Many problems then are less about what would need to be or regulated but much more about the systems that implement those rules. If no one is incentivised to implement, then it's probably not happening. Tech companies are not a problem but their influence on government through politicians or money/tax, etc. is much more. So a better book to think about those issues would be Thinking in Systems: A Primer.
I liked:
- At times it feels like technology advocate but overall the pros and cons of technology as source of the problems but also as some solution is well balanced. Many times, of course, it's more a problem of society and how humans adapt to change and in particular fast (exponential) change.
- I liked the general overview and that the author put some interesting things into the book.
I didn't like:
- The book often feels like staging the obvious and re-iterating the same points and relatively clear things in depth.
- Overall I expected to learn more or gain some new insights around exponentiality. But it remained relatively shallow.
- The book is about "exponential" yet many things, solutions, etc. are discussed on a basis of past research, current possible solutions, etc. My take is always that if there's truly exponential progress on technology side that doesn't stop, it all will not work or matter either. Somehow it always ends up being the point of the singularity described in Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Can we as "linear" creatures/species even compete if there's no physical barrier of a Superintelligence to develop?
Things I learned:
- As a fundament of much technology is the exponential growth of computing power. Lower prices and higher performance leads to compounding growth. The Innovator's Dilemma: The Revolutionary Book that Will Change the Way You Do Business is mentioned here as well and how it leads to new companies and more innovation.
- More data and better computers lead to breakthrough of artificial intelligence/machine learning/deep learning. See also Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies to see where this (maybe, probably?) leads to.
- There are 4 main domains of exponential technologies today: Computing, energy, biology, manufacturing. Some of those domains also reinforce each other. Improvements in one leads to "free" improvements in the other.
- Wright’s Law: States that for every cumulative doubling of units produced, costs will fall by a constant percentage. Formula: Y=ax^b.
- Institutions change slow because of path dependence. Drift, layering. Shock helps to speed up change.
- The solution propose to close the "exponential gap": a) Slow down tech or b) Society needs to adapt faster. Slowing down tech might be done through better/faster regulation but it will hamper innovation.
- Effects of fast growth and the issues they lead to (monopolies, lock-in by network effects) are pushed even more by investors. See Blitzscaling: The Lightning-Fast Path to Building Massively Valuable Companies or Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future.
- How to slow down growth of monopolies/network effect: 1) Disallow certain acquisitions. 2) Require interoperability between services. 3) Treat the companies as supplier of utilities (you have to use them). These sound like reasonable things, yes. Certainly will slow down some developments but also will prevent certain harmful things to happen because the companies don't have so much power over the users/customers/partners.
- Moravec's paradox: Some things that are hard for humans is easy for computers and vice versa. Yes, but it's hard for computers until it isn't anymore. See recent developments of Alpha Go, GPT-3, Dall-E, etc. "Automation happens step by step, it's a slow process.". Yes, until it isnt.
- Taylorism: "The unobserved worker is an inefficient worker."
- "Through tech/cyberspace small countries can have disproportionate effect in cyber war. E.g. North Korea, Iran.". Have never really thought about that.
- "Power doesn't lie anymore as much at nations, politicians. But rather on the tech companies.". "We tend to navigate into the power of private corporations.". Yes, it's fascinating how it sounds more and more like the world of Snow Crash.
- Homophily: Tendency to associate with similar people.
It's more of an "overview". Much seems relatively clear if you are in the technology/startups space. Nothing new per se. But that probably is to be expected from the title. I maybe expected more "technical" things in the book.
There's nothing terrible wrong with the book and generally well written but there's also not much new or insightful. The gist of the recommendation how to deal with exponential companies is:
- Transparency of workings of companies and what they do with our data: To prevent that they do nasty things. In parts something like GDPR in Europe.
- Interoperability of their service: Requirements for APIs to use the services.
- Control over own personal data: Again GDPR.
- Commonality (like im tragedy of the commons). E.g. Data commons: UK Bio bank or Open source software.
In the end this is regulation that in parts already is active (but is ignored and paid of with lawyers, fees, etc.). If that doesn't sound alien to you, then you probably can skip the book. If you want to know more about why this is important to prevent, at least some technologies, roll over the population, then it might be a good read for you.
Many problems then are less about what would need to be or regulated but much more about the systems that implement those rules. If no one is incentivised to implement, then it's probably not happening. Tech companies are not a problem but their influence on government through politicians or money/tax, etc. is much more. So a better book to think about those issues would be Thinking in Systems: A Primer.
I liked:
- At times it feels like technology advocate but overall the pros and cons of technology as source of the problems but also as some solution is well balanced. Many times, of course, it's more a problem of society and how humans adapt to change and in particular fast (exponential) change.
- I liked the general overview and that the author put some interesting things into the book.
I didn't like:
- The book often feels like staging the obvious and re-iterating the same points and relatively clear things in depth.
- Overall I expected to learn more or gain some new insights around exponentiality. But it remained relatively shallow.
- The book is about "exponential" yet many things, solutions, etc. are discussed on a basis of past research, current possible solutions, etc. My take is always that if there's truly exponential progress on technology side that doesn't stop, it all will not work or matter either. Somehow it always ends up being the point of the singularity described in Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Can we as "linear" creatures/species even compete if there's no physical barrier of a Superintelligence to develop?
Things I learned:
- As a fundament of much technology is the exponential growth of computing power. Lower prices and higher performance leads to compounding growth. The Innovator's Dilemma: The Revolutionary Book that Will Change the Way You Do Business is mentioned here as well and how it leads to new companies and more innovation.
- More data and better computers lead to breakthrough of artificial intelligence/machine learning/deep learning. See also Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies to see where this (maybe, probably?) leads to.
- There are 4 main domains of exponential technologies today: Computing, energy, biology, manufacturing. Some of those domains also reinforce each other. Improvements in one leads to "free" improvements in the other.
- Wright’s Law: States that for every cumulative doubling of units produced, costs will fall by a constant percentage. Formula: Y=ax^b.
- Institutions change slow because of path dependence. Drift, layering. Shock helps to speed up change.
- The solution propose to close the "exponential gap": a) Slow down tech or b) Society needs to adapt faster. Slowing down tech might be done through better/faster regulation but it will hamper innovation.
- Effects of fast growth and the issues they lead to (monopolies, lock-in by network effects) are pushed even more by investors. See Blitzscaling: The Lightning-Fast Path to Building Massively Valuable Companies or Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future.
- How to slow down growth of monopolies/network effect: 1) Disallow certain acquisitions. 2) Require interoperability between services. 3) Treat the companies as supplier of utilities (you have to use them). These sound like reasonable things, yes. Certainly will slow down some developments but also will prevent certain harmful things to happen because the companies don't have so much power over the users/customers/partners.
- Moravec's paradox: Some things that are hard for humans is easy for computers and vice versa. Yes, but it's hard for computers until it isn't anymore. See recent developments of Alpha Go, GPT-3, Dall-E, etc. "Automation happens step by step, it's a slow process.". Yes, until it isnt.
- Taylorism: "The unobserved worker is an inefficient worker."
- "Through tech/cyberspace small countries can have disproportionate effect in cyber war. E.g. North Korea, Iran.". Have never really thought about that.
- "Power doesn't lie anymore as much at nations, politicians. But rather on the tech companies.". "We tend to navigate into the power of private corporations.". Yes, it's fascinating how it sounds more and more like the world of Snow Crash.
- Homophily: Tendency to associate with similar people.
July 15, 2023
This book came my way as a recommendation by a speaker in an economic forum conference about AI. However, the book deals more with current technology development and as the title suggests, its exponential growth and the gap between the speed and the adoption of our institutions to this growth. The book lays out the differences between previous inventions and the changes of those inventions to society and the current speedy technological growth. The first chapters (exponential age and exponential gap) are very well articulated. They list down the areas of technology that are growing rapidly and the reasons behind this growth. The exponential gap chapter explains how and why the current laws and regulations are inefficient to address this growth. This causes undesirable results and consequences to the societies and institutions like monopolies (unlimited companies), income gaps, ethnic wars (that rely on cyber security, technological development like drones), and the effect on citizens like radicalization.
The conclusion chapter was disappointing to read. Through out the book, the author explains well the problems on various aspects (labour, monopoly, citizens) and how each aspect can be challenged through (unions, regulations, activism). This seem sound and necessary. However, in the conclusion, the author sounded too hopeful and certain regarding the proposed solutions described throughout the book. This seemed a bit incoherent with the whole book describing how the exponential growth is highly unpredictable.
While the book tried to layout the extent of danger from experts trying to predict the exponentially growing technology results and future, it seems the author fell in the same trap trying to expect and introduce hope and certainty with regards to the proposed solutions addressing the future and directing it towards a better use for humanity.
The conclusion chapter was disappointing to read. Through out the book, the author explains well the problems on various aspects (labour, monopoly, citizens) and how each aspect can be challenged through (unions, regulations, activism). This seem sound and necessary. However, in the conclusion, the author sounded too hopeful and certain regarding the proposed solutions described throughout the book. This seemed a bit incoherent with the whole book describing how the exponential growth is highly unpredictable.
While the book tried to layout the extent of danger from experts trying to predict the exponentially growing technology results and future, it seems the author fell in the same trap trying to expect and introduce hope and certainty with regards to the proposed solutions addressing the future and directing it towards a better use for humanity.
August 22, 2022
Technologies can take society in unexpected directions. When a technology takes off, its effects can be enormous, stretching across all areas of our human life: our jobs, the wars we fight,the nature of our politics,even our manners and habits. To borrow a word from economics, technology is not ‘exogenous’ to the other forces that define our lives- it combines with political, cultural and social systems, often in dramatic and unforeseen ways, sometimes moving slowly, sometimes causing rapid and seismic transformations and that's what makes it so difficult to analyse. But if technology isn't neutral, that is if it has encoded some form of ideology or system of power- that might raise more problems than it can solve.
Exponential is a holistic guide to how technology is changing our society and what we can do about it so as to benefit the most from it while avoiding its minor or major lapses. Azhar talks about ‘exponential gap’, the central thesis of the book that tech grows exponentially while humans adapt linearly. He also explains the broad principles we need to thrive in an age of exponential change - from making our institutions more resilient to reiterating the power of collective ownership and decision,-making.
He concludes,that technology as it turns out is something we can control which is why it will always have the potential to be a force for good . Water turns to steam but that doesn't stop us from harnessing its power. One of the finest books on technology one can grab. Plenty of food for thought !
Exponential is a holistic guide to how technology is changing our society and what we can do about it so as to benefit the most from it while avoiding its minor or major lapses. Azhar talks about ‘exponential gap’, the central thesis of the book that tech grows exponentially while humans adapt linearly. He also explains the broad principles we need to thrive in an age of exponential change - from making our institutions more resilient to reiterating the power of collective ownership and decision,-making.
He concludes,that technology as it turns out is something we can control which is why it will always have the potential to be a force for good . Water turns to steam but that doesn't stop us from harnessing its power. One of the finest books on technology one can grab. Plenty of food for thought !
December 26, 2023
So much has already been written and said about technology, human evolution from the angle of the technology. Therefore, it seems very difficult if not impossible to write anything creative and novel on the subject.
And perhaps that is the only major handicap of Azhar’s book - no groundbreaking insights, no revolutionary ideas. Nothing new really.
Yet I’m really glad to have read The Exponential Age.
First, the content of the book is super relevant for this exact decade. The dilemmas we face - both in the business context and in private life - find their reflection in the book. What’s going on with the job markets right now? How businesses implement the novel technologies, changing fast every ten years or so, to stay relevant for their clients? How technology giants - Facebook, Twitter and such - bring along the value to businesses and people, at the same time creating risks difficult to understand and mitigate?
Secondly, I find Azhar’s book sufficiently comprehensive. Even though focused to a large extent on the market / business or practical if you will aspects, it does touch upon the existential dimensions, too. And when trying to make rare (luckily) judgements and predictions, it explicitly carves out different contexts in which the same technological phenomenae can have very different consequences. It’s not all black or white. Or hardly anything is.
All in all a highly recommended read.
And perhaps that is the only major handicap of Azhar’s book - no groundbreaking insights, no revolutionary ideas. Nothing new really.
Yet I’m really glad to have read The Exponential Age.
First, the content of the book is super relevant for this exact decade. The dilemmas we face - both in the business context and in private life - find their reflection in the book. What’s going on with the job markets right now? How businesses implement the novel technologies, changing fast every ten years or so, to stay relevant for their clients? How technology giants - Facebook, Twitter and such - bring along the value to businesses and people, at the same time creating risks difficult to understand and mitigate?
Secondly, I find Azhar’s book sufficiently comprehensive. Even though focused to a large extent on the market / business or practical if you will aspects, it does touch upon the existential dimensions, too. And when trying to make rare (luckily) judgements and predictions, it explicitly carves out different contexts in which the same technological phenomenae can have very different consequences. It’s not all black or white. Or hardly anything is.
All in all a highly recommended read.
April 10, 2022
Super interesting content that makes you contemplate while reading it. The author managed to lay down an amazing groundwork by depicting the perils and dangers of the exponential age and its potential amplified effects. However, I do disagree with certain thoughts and topics. In certain magnitude, the interoperability already exists. It is highly leveraged by the blockchain technology and various layer 1 platforms do address the issues pertaining to the likes of facebook, twitter, and other social media. You can in fact transfer your data between various types of social media within the realms of web3. All you need to do is to establish a connection to your wallet. Moreover, within the realms of web3, job-seekers get rewarded fairly based on their work and requested remuneration. With web3 becoming more user-friendly and succeeding in attaining mass adoption, the issues imposed and created by corporations such as Amazon and Uber will not exist. In addition to that traditional public institutions will either seek complete transformation and operate in a different shape or form, or will cease to exist. I do believe that our and upcoming generations are more than ready to embrace and make such changes.
November 6, 2022
After enjoying quite a few of Azhar,s Exponential View podcast I wasn’t sure whether i would find a summary of those interviews or his analysis on the worl AFTER having those conversations. I fortunately found the latter. The first part seemed to me lile an update of Tony Seba’s Winners Take All book. This was in itself more than good enough. However, the second part goes towards a more reflective area, where the big forces of the world, from politics to human rights, are affected by this Exponential Age. I found it quite convincing in some parts, like how what we arestruggling with today may be indirectly related to the gap between what technology brings us and how we psychologically and regulatorily deal with it. In other parts, like how commonality should be part of the short-term evolution of our society in order to cope with this exponentiality, I am not that sure as I have heard it before a few too many times, to no hope.
All in all, recommended reading and a good one to sip little by little and think about it.
All in all, recommended reading and a good one to sip little by little and think about it.
March 5, 2022
This book is much better than I expected in that it wide ranging in scope and very well argued. The book covers the impact of exponential technologies on economies, work, trade, geopolitical conflicting, and the broader relationship between citizens and society. The author, Azeem Azhar, says that 'new technologies are being invented and scaled at an ever-faster pace, all while decreasing in price'. If the adaptation over time of these technologies were plotted on a graph the adaptations would follow an exponential curve. He argues that these technology advances are bringing massive changes with them. The author says that institutions are changing more slowly, —in a linear fashion over time— and risk being left behind by the speed of technological change resulting in what he terms an 'exponential gap'. He believes that gap could erode the fabric of society. The book is intended to help us get to the future we want.
September 8, 2021
I've followed Azeem Azhar since he was writing for the Economist way back in the day, and more recently, in his unicorn of a newsletter, Exponential View - perhaps the only publication I read "cover to cover" these days. So I was thrilled to hear about his forthcoming book.
The book in a word is stellar. We are in age of exponential change, of exponential challenges, and the book does a marvelous job shining a light on all the various forces at work, the impact it's having across culture, governance, institutions, and commerce. Today, and where it might lead tomorrow.
It feels like a seminal publication, much like Wired was as a magazine back in 1993 - giving shape to the response of our culture, society, and economy in response to emerging technology. Except three decades later and another order of magnitude.
5/5 stars.
The book in a word is stellar. We are in age of exponential change, of exponential challenges, and the book does a marvelous job shining a light on all the various forces at work, the impact it's having across culture, governance, institutions, and commerce. Today, and where it might lead tomorrow.
It feels like a seminal publication, much like Wired was as a magazine back in 1993 - giving shape to the response of our culture, society, and economy in response to emerging technology. Except three decades later and another order of magnitude.
5/5 stars.
April 4, 2022
We live in an age where key backbone technologies (computing, biology, energy, manufacturing) advance exponentially, but our collective mindsets and institutions that shape and guide how these technologies impact our lives progress much slower. The delta between these two is what Azar calls the “exponential gap.”
Azar does a good job of explaining and demonstrating the existence of the exponential gap. It is a useful way for describing the increasing level of disruption we seem to be feeling in every aspect of our lives. The book is much weaker on what to do about this, though that’s not his fault because part of his observation is that we as humans are just very bad at dealing with exponential growth, even “experts” like him ( :) ) who’ve called it out, know it’s happening, and know to watch for it.
Azar does a good job of explaining and demonstrating the existence of the exponential gap. It is a useful way for describing the increasing level of disruption we seem to be feeling in every aspect of our lives. The book is much weaker on what to do about this, though that’s not his fault because part of his observation is that we as humans are just very bad at dealing with exponential growth, even “experts” like him ( :) ) who’ve called it out, know it’s happening, and know to watch for it.
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