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Bet, The MP3 CD – Unabridged, June 21, 2016

by Paul Sabin (Author), Anthony Haden Salerno (Reader)

4.5 125 ratings

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In 1980, the iconoclastic economist Julian Simon challenged celebrity biologist Paul Ehrlich to a bet. Their wager on the future prices of five metals captured the public's imagination as a test of coming prosperity or doom. Ehrlich, author of the landmark book The Population Bomb, predicted that rising populations would cause overconsumption, resource scarcity, and famine—with apocalyptic consequences for humanity. Simon optimistically countered that human welfare would flourish thanks to flexible markets, technological change, and our collective ingenuity.

Simon and Ehrlich's debate reflected a deepening national conflict over the future of the planet. The Bet weaves the two men's lives and ideas together with the era's partisan political clashes over the environment and the role of government. In a lively narrative leading from the dawning environmentalism of the 1960s through the pivotal presidential contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan and on into the 1990s, Paul Sabin shows how the fight between Ehrlich and Simon—between environmental fears and free-market confidence—helped create the gulf separating environmentalists and their critics today. Drawing insights from both sides, Sabin argues for using social values, rather than economic or biological absolutes, to guide society's crucial choices relating to climate change, the planet's health, and our own.

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About the Author

Paul Sabin is associate professor, Department of History, Yale University. He was founding director of the Environmental Leadership Program and is the author of Crude Politics: The California Oil Market, 1900?1940.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Audible Studios on Brilliance Audio; Unabridged edition (June 21, 2016)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1522670173
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1522670179
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 3.5 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.5 x 0.63 x 5.5 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #10,448,645 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #7,450 in Environmental Policy
- #22,087 in Environmental Economics (Books)
- #25,264 in Environmental Science (Books)

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4.5 125 ratings

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Paul Sabin

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Paul Sabin is the Randolph W. Townsend, Jr. Professor of History at Yale University. He is the author of PUBLIC CITIZENS: THE ATTACK ON BIG GOVERNMENT AND THE REMAKING OF AMERICAN LIBERALISM (2021); THE BET: PAUL EHRLICH, JULIAN SIMON AND OUR GAMBLE OVER EARTH'S FUTURE (2013); and, CRUDE POLITICS: THE CALIFORNIA OIL MARKET, 1900-1940 (2005). Before joining the Yale faculty, Paul served as founding executive director of the non-profit Environmental Leadership Program.

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FPman

Fascinating and (surprisingly!) entertaining

Reviewed in the United States on August 16, 2013

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This book is essential reading for environmentalists, economists, students of public policy, and anybody interested in modern history. It tells the story of a bet between an environmentalist and an economist. As an environmentalist, it has made me question assumptions about the relationship between population growth and scarcity that has been a driver of the environmental movement for the last 40 years. If folks on both sides of environmental politics would read this book, we might be able to actually move forward.

What made this book such a treat to read, however, is the entertaining style in which it is written. It is loaded with anecdotes about Paul Erlich and Julian Simon, who made the bet that is the centerpiece of the story, and the people around them that populated the political landscape. For example, I loved the description of Jimmy Carter's White House maintenance staff, nicknamed the "thermostat police," visiting people's offices to make sure they hadn't reset the thermostats, and of President Carter sweating through cabinet meetings to set an example for the rest of the country. This kind of amusing story gives the rather serious topic a lighter side, too.

39 people found this helpful

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sien

Excellent book comparing ideas and people

Reviewed in the United States on January 1, 2014

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The Bet (2013) by Paul Sabin is a really fine book that looks at the different beliefs of the ecologist and author of The Population Bomb Paul Ehrlich and the economist Julian Simon and their famous bet on the price of natural resources.
Sabin is an academic at Yale who teaches environmental history. He introduces the book by describing his own environmentalism which is a very honest and clear way of clarifying his own biases.
The book then looks at Paul Ehrlich’s rise to fame as a prophet of doom. Ehrlich’s childhood, career as a butterfly biologist and his rise a ecological activist is catalogued. Ehrlich’s book ‘The Population Bomb’ and his series of dire predictions and rise to fame in the 1960s and 1970s is described with insight.
Sabin then looks at Julian Simon’s childhood and career. Interestingly both Simon and Ehrlich grew up in suburban New Jersey to upwardly mobile Jewish parents. Simon went to Harvard then obtained an MBA and then a PhD at the University of Chicago. Simon initially worked on using marketing to reduce population growth but then investigated the assumption that increased population was a problem and came to the opposite conclusion.
Next the rise of environmentalism in the 1970s is described. The creation of the Environmental Protection Agency by Richard Nixon and the passage of various other laws and the rise of Jimmy Carter and his own environmental beliefs along with the oil crisis are discussed.
The book then gets to the famous bet between Simon and Ehrlich where Simon challenged Ehrlich to pick 5 metals that he thought would rise over the next decade. Ehrlich comprehensively lost the bet after declaring that taking up the bet would be easily getting free money. The Reagan presidency and Reagan ‘s scepticism of the benefits of further environmental regulation is summarised.
Sabin also points out that while the general thrust of the Carter was toward environmentalism and Reagan toward the market that Carter deregulated the energy industry substantially and Reagan signed on to the Montreal Protocol to reduce CFCs.
Then the increasing polarization of environmental debates between pro-market optimists and environmental catastrophists is nicely described. The contribution of Bjorn Lomborg in fact checking the debate, coming out generally on Simon’s side and then being demonised by environmentalists is added to the discussion. Despite being substantially wrong Ehrlich was far more successful in winning prizes and notoriety than Simon.
Sabin concludes the book by praising the contributions of both Ehrlich and Simon while pointing out that Ehrlich was categorically wrong. He credits Ehrlich with allowing increasing environmental regulations to be passed while crediting Simon with pointing out that the price mechanism and human ingenuity have shown Malthusians to be wrong for the past 200 years. Sabin would like to see more of a fusion between the two positions.
It’s an excellent book that both environmentalists and others will enjoy and get a lot from. Sabin has done an excellent job in writing a very readable, interesting book.

16 people found this helpful

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David

Betting on our planet

Reviewed in the United States on August 12, 2013

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This book is about a small bet on a big topic. In practice, the bet between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich was about the prices of a basket of commodities. But the bet was really about the relationship between humankind and earth: were humans making their planet unlivable? Ehrlich, best known as the author of "The Population Bomb" thought that higher commodity prices would be a sign of increasing strains on natural resources, and proof of the growing precariousness of human existence. The economist Simon, on the other hand, but his money on technological innovation - even if commodities became scarcer, new techniques and technologies would lead to adjustments and demands and prices.

Sabin's book is well-written, making this dramatic and important subject easy reading. He appreciates both the big picture - what was really at stake in this bet - and the small details about the two bettors and how they came to make that wager.

It's a great book for students and teachers, for environmentalists and economists, and for anyone interested in the fate of human life on earth.

24 people found this helpful

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Jaime Durán

Una apuesta por la humanidad del futuro

Reviewed in Mexico on March 16, 2023

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Tenía mucho interés en profundizar en el fondo de quienes participaron en esta apuesta. En general, tiendo más a coincidir con Simon que con Ehrlich, pero debo reconocer que ambos incurren en posturas que llevan la discusión a los extremos basados exclusivamente en la visión de sus propias ciencias (la biología y la economía)

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