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2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything
Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees, and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. Printed money was legal tender for all debts, public and private. We grew up learning how to "play the game," and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job, started a family, saw our children grow up, and went into retirement with our finances secure.
That world—and those rules—are over.
By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it:
- There will be more grandparents than grandchildren
- The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined
- The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history
- There will be more global wealth owned by women than men
- There will be more robots than workers
- There will be more computers than human brains
- There will be more currencies than countries
All these trends, currently underway, will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture, the economy, and the world.
According to Mauro F. Guillen, the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway—and their impacts—is to think laterally. That is, using “peripheral vision,” or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view. Rather than focusing on a single trend—climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes, for example—Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point—2030—that will be, for better or worse, the point of no return.
2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of “lateral thinking,” thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences.
That world—and those rules—are over.
By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it:
- There will be more grandparents than grandchildren
- The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined
- The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history
- There will be more global wealth owned by women than men
- There will be more robots than workers
- There will be more computers than human brains
- There will be more currencies than countries
All these trends, currently underway, will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture, the economy, and the world.
According to Mauro F. Guillen, the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway—and their impacts—is to think laterally. That is, using “peripheral vision,” or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view. Rather than focusing on a single trend—climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes, for example—Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point—2030—that will be, for better or worse, the point of no return.
2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of “lateral thinking,” thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences.
288 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2020
About the author
Mauro F. Guillén
33 books72 followersMauro F. Guillén is director of the Lauder Institute and the Dr. Felix Zandman Professor of International Management and Sociology at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of The Limits of Convergence: Globalization and Organizational Change in Argentina, South Korea, and Spain (Princeton), The Rise of Spanish Multinationals, and the coauthor of Building a Global Bank (Princeton).
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September 22, 2020
Does anyone else feel like the year 2000 was just a couple years ago and 2030 is some far off point in the future?
Many of us can remember the hype over the year 2000, how we were told computers all over the world would become so confused they'd stop working and the world would descend into the Dark Ages.
Alas, the Dark Ages did not arrive on January 1st, 2000. For Americans, the Dark Ages arrived on November 8th, 2016.....
But I digress.
The new millennium seems to have started recently, and 2030 to be many more than ten years away. Funny how time appears.
The author of 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything knows 2030 is just around the corner, and peeks around it to see what changes we can expect in the very near future.
Mauro F. Guillén looks at current trends to make his predictions. He examines each of the following:
‣Fewer babies are being born, meaning soon there will be more grandparents than grandchildren
‣Middle class growth has stagnated in America and Europe but is expanding in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
‣More women than men are getting higher education
‣Climate change is intensifying
‣AI is rapidly replacing human jobs
Mr. Guillén analyzes these factors and shows how they are changing our world. Unfortunately, many will be left behind as technology makes more and more jobs redundant. He argues that the key to surviving these changes is to be flexible and to take a lateral approach to the challenges we face.
Now, if you looked at that first trend about fewer babies being born and thought, It's all those gay people, running around with their rainbow flags and asking to be treated equally! If they'd instead spend their time having straight people sex, there'd be a lot more grandchildren to go around!
Well, don't blame it on me if you only have one grandchild instead of nineteen. There's still plenty of Eve and Adam type sex going on -- but no one can afford to have many babies. Not my fault; blame it on the top 1%. Even as people's wages are stagnating and they're falling out of the middle class, the cost to raise a child is increasing. Child care, education, food..... most people can't afford to "go forth and populate the earth", no matter how much straight sex they have.
Again, I digress.....
Back to the book. The author looks at each of these trends and what they mean for the very near future.
•Fewer babies mean fewer people to take care of the elderly.... and since immigrants have in the past played a major role in elderly care, you can take your blame to all the anti-immigrant politicians and the xenophobes who support them.
•For the first time ever, the global market will be driven by Asian and African consumer demands, rather than by Western.
•More of the world's wealth will be owned by women.... though unfortunately most women will not have a share in this bounty, as more wealth will continue to accumulate in the hands of a few.
•There will be more robots than human workers and more sensors than human eyes.
•There will be more currencies than countries.
•More people than ever will live in cities.
The author looks at how we might adapt to these changes and even to take advantage of them.
All in all, this was an interesting book, though some chapters had a lot of repetition. I like the creative approach he takes, even using blockchain technology not just for cryptocurrency, but also for things like protecting endangered species and improving gun control.
He concludes the book with a postscript on how our current pandemic is accelerating all of these changes. It's pointless to sit back and wish the world would just stay the same. Our world is in the midst of massive change whether we like it or not. Instead of bemoaning the fact that the world is different than when you grew up, look at where things need to change for the better. Our world was never perfect, especially not for minorities, and so as we face colossal change, let's see where we can make improvements and bring about a more just society. The world will never be perfect, but we can strive to make it better.
And we should make it better. For all.
P.S.
I'm not simply being facetious. I did once hear an evangelical preacher blame the dwindling numbers of babies being born on the existence of gay people, as though gay people are new to the world and as though gay people never reproduce. 🙄
Many of us can remember the hype over the year 2000, how we were told computers all over the world would become so confused they'd stop working and the world would descend into the Dark Ages.
Alas, the Dark Ages did not arrive on January 1st, 2000. For Americans, the Dark Ages arrived on November 8th, 2016.....
But I digress.
The new millennium seems to have started recently, and 2030 to be many more than ten years away. Funny how time appears.
The author of 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything knows 2030 is just around the corner, and peeks around it to see what changes we can expect in the very near future.
Mauro F. Guillén looks at current trends to make his predictions. He examines each of the following:
‣Fewer babies are being born, meaning soon there will be more grandparents than grandchildren
‣Middle class growth has stagnated in America and Europe but is expanding in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
‣More women than men are getting higher education
‣Climate change is intensifying
‣AI is rapidly replacing human jobs
Mr. Guillén analyzes these factors and shows how they are changing our world. Unfortunately, many will be left behind as technology makes more and more jobs redundant. He argues that the key to surviving these changes is to be flexible and to take a lateral approach to the challenges we face.
Now, if you looked at that first trend about fewer babies being born and thought, It's all those gay people, running around with their rainbow flags and asking to be treated equally! If they'd instead spend their time having straight people sex, there'd be a lot more grandchildren to go around!
Well, don't blame it on me if you only have one grandchild instead of nineteen. There's still plenty of Eve and Adam type sex going on -- but no one can afford to have many babies. Not my fault; blame it on the top 1%. Even as people's wages are stagnating and they're falling out of the middle class, the cost to raise a child is increasing. Child care, education, food..... most people can't afford to "go forth and populate the earth", no matter how much straight sex they have.
Again, I digress.....
Back to the book. The author looks at each of these trends and what they mean for the very near future.
•Fewer babies mean fewer people to take care of the elderly.... and since immigrants have in the past played a major role in elderly care, you can take your blame to all the anti-immigrant politicians and the xenophobes who support them.
•For the first time ever, the global market will be driven by Asian and African consumer demands, rather than by Western.
•More of the world's wealth will be owned by women.... though unfortunately most women will not have a share in this bounty, as more wealth will continue to accumulate in the hands of a few.
•There will be more robots than human workers and more sensors than human eyes.
•There will be more currencies than countries.
•More people than ever will live in cities.
The author looks at how we might adapt to these changes and even to take advantage of them.
All in all, this was an interesting book, though some chapters had a lot of repetition. I like the creative approach he takes, even using blockchain technology not just for cryptocurrency, but also for things like protecting endangered species and improving gun control.
He concludes the book with a postscript on how our current pandemic is accelerating all of these changes. It's pointless to sit back and wish the world would just stay the same. Our world is in the midst of massive change whether we like it or not. Instead of bemoaning the fact that the world is different than when you grew up, look at where things need to change for the better. Our world was never perfect, especially not for minorities, and so as we face colossal change, let's see where we can make improvements and bring about a more just society. The world will never be perfect, but we can strive to make it better.
And we should make it better. For all.
P.S.
I'm not simply being facetious. I did once hear an evangelical preacher blame the dwindling numbers of babies being born on the existence of gay people, as though gay people are new to the world and as though gay people never reproduce. 🙄
April 25, 2020
Being flexible will save your day. That is the message from Mauro Guillen in 2030. Things are changing rapidly, and society as we know it will have morphed into something very different by 2030.
He looks at major trends: fertility (plunging), millennial behavior patterns (dominating), middle class (in large agglomerations), and women’s lot (improving yearly). These point to different structures going forward.
There are also the technological trends: automation, artificial intelligence, and blockchain applications are his focus. For those who think outside the box (he prefers the phrase thinking laterally), there is huge opportunity. The book has numerous anecdotes about people who saw an issue and turned it into a startup, often with huge success, even if you’ve never heard of it.
All these factors converge by 2030 to present a world entirely different from what we are living today, just ten year’s prior.
Though he recognizes some of the downsides from these conditions, trends and developments, Guillen is a cockeyed optimist at heart. We have huge potential in front of us, and success is there for the grabbing.
The timing of this book might be its biggest risk factor. Everything Guillen examines is a trend, and very suddenly in 2020, trendlines are being broken thanks to the COVID-19 global pandemic. World trade growth is off the table. The question has become will it even recover by 2030. Will manufacturing go back to being sourced globally or will every country insist on replicating every facility? Will artificial intelligence be allowed to destroy jobs in a gigantic recession with tens of millions (just in the USA) suddenly unemployed? Will entire industries like sporting events and concerts recover – ever? None of these factors gets treated in 2030, because none of them had occurred yet. The book requires current trends to continue for the forecasts to work.
Just one example. Guillen is very high on Airbnb as an innovator, an enabler and of course, a disruptor. Perhaps a lot more people are travelling because of it. Perhaps homeowners have relaxed financial stresses because of it. Maybe hotels aren’t hurt as badly as it might appear because Airbnb attracts new travelers. All very innovative, restructuring the whole world in its image.
But Airbnb is in a major bind now. Cities are completely banning short term rentals as tourist renters don’t shop locally, leaving an ever-shrinking supply of local merchants for the fewer full time residents. Residents of buildings don’t want the added disease risk of nonresidents. Or the noise or the insecurity of a constant flow of complete strangers. The company is funding deposit refunds en masse when hosts refuse. And it transpires that possibly 40% of the properties listed are corporate owned, not idealistic homeowners renting out a bedroom in Airbnb’s romantic portrayal of what is on offer. These are instead investors who gamble on buying up blocks of condos and even homes to rent out at big profits (driving up rental prices in the shrunken stock of housing remaining) and now face catastrophic debt situations as their incomes have plunged to zero. Airbnb itself might not make it to 2030 without revenues.
So while all the facts, figures and stories are inspiring and generally positive, one has to wonder if any of it is valid any more.
David Wineberg
He looks at major trends: fertility (plunging), millennial behavior patterns (dominating), middle class (in large agglomerations), and women’s lot (improving yearly). These point to different structures going forward.
There are also the technological trends: automation, artificial intelligence, and blockchain applications are his focus. For those who think outside the box (he prefers the phrase thinking laterally), there is huge opportunity. The book has numerous anecdotes about people who saw an issue and turned it into a startup, often with huge success, even if you’ve never heard of it.
All these factors converge by 2030 to present a world entirely different from what we are living today, just ten year’s prior.
Though he recognizes some of the downsides from these conditions, trends and developments, Guillen is a cockeyed optimist at heart. We have huge potential in front of us, and success is there for the grabbing.
The timing of this book might be its biggest risk factor. Everything Guillen examines is a trend, and very suddenly in 2020, trendlines are being broken thanks to the COVID-19 global pandemic. World trade growth is off the table. The question has become will it even recover by 2030. Will manufacturing go back to being sourced globally or will every country insist on replicating every facility? Will artificial intelligence be allowed to destroy jobs in a gigantic recession with tens of millions (just in the USA) suddenly unemployed? Will entire industries like sporting events and concerts recover – ever? None of these factors gets treated in 2030, because none of them had occurred yet. The book requires current trends to continue for the forecasts to work.
Just one example. Guillen is very high on Airbnb as an innovator, an enabler and of course, a disruptor. Perhaps a lot more people are travelling because of it. Perhaps homeowners have relaxed financial stresses because of it. Maybe hotels aren’t hurt as badly as it might appear because Airbnb attracts new travelers. All very innovative, restructuring the whole world in its image.
But Airbnb is in a major bind now. Cities are completely banning short term rentals as tourist renters don’t shop locally, leaving an ever-shrinking supply of local merchants for the fewer full time residents. Residents of buildings don’t want the added disease risk of nonresidents. Or the noise or the insecurity of a constant flow of complete strangers. The company is funding deposit refunds en masse when hosts refuse. And it transpires that possibly 40% of the properties listed are corporate owned, not idealistic homeowners renting out a bedroom in Airbnb’s romantic portrayal of what is on offer. These are instead investors who gamble on buying up blocks of condos and even homes to rent out at big profits (driving up rental prices in the shrunken stock of housing remaining) and now face catastrophic debt situations as their incomes have plunged to zero. Airbnb itself might not make it to 2030 without revenues.
So while all the facts, figures and stories are inspiring and generally positive, one has to wonder if any of it is valid any more.
David Wineberg
July 2, 2020
In school they told us how we were supposed to “play the game,” and we grew up thinking that the rules would remain the same as we took our first job, started a family, saw our children leave the house, and went into retirement. The familiar world is rapidly vanishing as we encounter a bewildering new reality driven by a new set of rules. Before we know it there will be more grandparents than grandchildren in most countries; middle-class markets in Asia will be larger than those in the United States and Europe combined; women will own more wealth than men; and we will find ourselves in the midst of more industrial robots than manufacturing workers, more computers than human brains, more sensors than human eyes, and more currencies than countries. That will be the world in 2030.
I have an abiding interest in social sciences, and from the publisher's blurb, I thought that 2030 would be an interesting look at how the world we live in is poised to radically change in the coming decade. But that's not exactly what this is – it's not so much how our lives will change as how the business world will change, with advice on how to use “lateral thinking” to take advantage of these emerging markets. While this was still interesting, and it's certainly not author Mauro Guillen's fault that this wasn't the book I was expecting, it wasn't, ultimately, perfectly suited to my own interests. (Note: I read an ARC through NetGalley and passages quoted may not be in their final forms.)
The point of this book is that the clock is ticking. The year 2030 isn't some remote point in the unforeseeable future. It's right around the corner, and we need to prepare ourselves for both the opportunities and the challenges. Simply put, the world as we know it today will be gone by 2030, and people will introspectively ask each other, “Where were you when that world came to an end?”
As for emerging markets: the general aging of the Western population (with corresponding low birth rates), the rise of the middle class in China, India, and Africa, and the growing purchasing power of women globally means that businesses will need to amend their offerings for these consumers (but this didn't feel like groundbreaking information). Guillen sees an even greater shift towards both the gig economy (with younger workers not interested in or not able to find employment in a full time career) and the sharing economy (with younger people uninterested in buying their own homes or cars – and that gave me pause as I look ahead to selling my own overpriced house someday to fund a future retirement; I'll need someone to want to buy it). Guillen writes a lot about Airbnb as an example of the kind of lateral thinking that has profitably taken advantage of converging market trends, yet he writes as though most providers are seniors renting out a spare room in their home in order to supplement retirement income, and is that really the case? (And as this was written just before the COVID outbreak, and will be released mid-pandemic, is this still a good example of an enduring business model? Will Airbnb – or anything shared – survive?) The last part of 2030 is about cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, and while I did find this information interesting, I remain skeptical about the degree to which governments will transition to these technologies in just ten more years. I will add that Guillen often ties his ideas into future environmental concerns (the growing pollution in cities as populations concentrate there, the comparative environmental effects of everyone owning a rarely used car vs. everyone sharing a few cars that will need replacing more often, the massive electricity needs of the servers used for blockchain and cryptocurrencies, the advantages of urban vertical farming) but there's nothing about a move away from fossil fuels or other opportunities in emerging green markets.
It isn't yet too late to prepare for 2030. The first, indispensable step is to realize that the world as we know it will irretrievably evanesce at some point during our lifetime, most likely within ten years. This awareness must lead to challenging received wisdom instead of continuing to honor inherited assumptions and ways of thinking. Instead, pursue lateral connections by diversifying your ideas, taking incremental steps, keeping your options open, focusing on the opportunity, considering scarcity as an incentive, and riding the tailwinds.
At the very end, Guillen gives concrete examples of what he means by lateral thinking, but again, this is advice for the entrepreneur, not the average global citizen. I will say that 2030 is certainly well written – it is never boring or technical – and I'll say again that it's not Guillen's fault that there wasn't much in here for me; I'm sure this will find its readers.
July 27, 2020
In 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, Mauro F. Guillen makes predictions for 10 years from now in many different areas such as business, finance, currency, population, environment, and others.
I find Guillen, like all of us, makes predictions based on his own political viewpoint, which is to be expected. My take is different than his, but that would be the same for anyone reading this, as we are all individuals. Guillen has undertaken a daunting task. So many things have changed in just one year from 2019 to 2020, I think it would be hard to make predictions for ten years out in this day and age. I think Guillen's ideas are well thought out, but can too easily be changed by future events.
I received a free copy of this book from Netgalley. My review is voluntary.
I find Guillen, like all of us, makes predictions based on his own political viewpoint, which is to be expected. My take is different than his, but that would be the same for anyone reading this, as we are all individuals. Guillen has undertaken a daunting task. So many things have changed in just one year from 2019 to 2020, I think it would be hard to make predictions for ten years out in this day and age. I think Guillen's ideas are well thought out, but can too easily be changed by future events.
I received a free copy of this book from Netgalley. My review is voluntary.
February 7, 2022
Mauro F. Guillen’s book is a timely and thoughtful contribution to the genre of current affairs and futurology. Despite the numerous works that attempt to explain our current moment in history, the book manages to find new angles and insights on well–known trends. However, the book’s greatest failing is its inability to communicate with (and even seeming ignorance) of the many great works that have appeared before it.
In no particular order, these books include The Next 100 Years, The Next Decade, The Digital Age, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, The World is Flat, Physics of the Future, Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. Of all these books, Yuval Noah Harari's Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century are the most essential works for understanding our current moment.
Each of the books listed above has contributed something to our understanding of the potential of AI, a warming planet, demographic shifts, the empowerment of women, and the shift in power from men to women. Many have also seen our current moment as a tug of war between tradition and stability (our figurative olive tree) and the promise of modernity (or hyper-modernity) (the figurative Lexus).
Gullien's book actually benefits by avoiding and downplaying some of the trendier topics -- AI, shifting geopolitics, political polarization, and post-trutherism. Instead, it focuses on shifts in demographics that will tip world economics towards emerging middle classes in other parts of the world and the growing number of elderly consumers. It also discusses the shift of wealth away from men to women, the emergence of cities, potential applications of blockchain, and other trends that have been somewhat (but not entirely) overlooked.
If you want to read only a few books on the 21st century, please read Yuval Noah Harari's books first (it might help to start with Sapiens before reading Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century). However, once you've become more immersed in the literature, if you want to read another book that tackles our current moment in history, this would be a very good one to read.
In no particular order, these books include The Next 100 Years, The Next Decade, The Digital Age, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, The World is Flat, Physics of the Future, Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. Of all these books, Yuval Noah Harari's Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century are the most essential works for understanding our current moment.
Each of the books listed above has contributed something to our understanding of the potential of AI, a warming planet, demographic shifts, the empowerment of women, and the shift in power from men to women. Many have also seen our current moment as a tug of war between tradition and stability (our figurative olive tree) and the promise of modernity (or hyper-modernity) (the figurative Lexus).
Gullien's book actually benefits by avoiding and downplaying some of the trendier topics -- AI, shifting geopolitics, political polarization, and post-trutherism. Instead, it focuses on shifts in demographics that will tip world economics towards emerging middle classes in other parts of the world and the growing number of elderly consumers. It also discusses the shift of wealth away from men to women, the emergence of cities, potential applications of blockchain, and other trends that have been somewhat (but not entirely) overlooked.
If you want to read only a few books on the 21st century, please read Yuval Noah Harari's books first (it might help to start with Sapiens before reading Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century). However, once you've become more immersed in the literature, if you want to read another book that tackles our current moment in history, this would be a very good one to read.
October 28, 2020
Do not believe the title of this book - you'll not find anything about 2030 and the trends reshaping the near future. I was fooled by its title and just want people to avoid the same mistake. The book was rushed and tries to bombard the readers with personal stories and bombastic viral words we are surrounded with - gig economy, crypto, AI, VR, nanotechnology, gender pay gap, refugees, sharing economy, social networks, climate change, cancer and very general statistical info, without too many details, meant to bend the numbers to the needed conclusion, like for example how you convince that urbanisation is growing - the author compares the number of 1969 cities with more than 10 million people to 2020, forgetting that the global population doubled in this period, so it is more correct to analyse the proportion of people, not their number.
Another important point - the book seems written for the American reader, so not incredibly fun for people not living in US.
The book seems to be written in a hurry and the style of personal testimonials, citations of famous personalities (businessmen, philosophers, authors of fictional content) succes and disaster stories from business - mainly companies, as well as a persistent accent on social justice matters is not the best format for such a book. There is no chapter in the book that sticks to the point it is presenting in the begining, we have an amalgamation of issues that sounds more as a debate between drunk people at a party - people that want to seem very smart, but lack the capacity being drunk that they just exchange some banalities.
First of all you'll find nothing new regarding what you already know about the future. When you write about global trends for the short term future it is probably the wisest thing is to take the already observed trends and extrapolate and analyse them, like for example the book of Hans Rosling, "Factfullness" that is doing exactly that but in a very convincing manner - using numbers to forecast a 2050 world, even if this is not the main goal of it. In fact this book is the opposite of Rosling's one - it begins with an idea of urgency and end of days if we do not act quickly - "the clock is ticking" it says.
Now to briefly go through the chapters and the trends "discovered", but known to any human being reading the news:
1.The number of babies will decline. Well the majority of scientists say it will stay the same aproximatively, especially if we think about 2030, it is rather close. Also you can find the idea that repeats itself in the book that women and kids rule the world, but suffer the most as we'll discover later on. A big part (around 40% of it) of the chapter is dedicated to convincing the reader that immigration is good, although I am not sure how this connects to the fertility issue discussed in the chapter.
2. The aging of the population - nothing new so far, but the chapter with a rant about why people have stereotypes over millennials - not sure how this connects to the chapter's main forecast. The entire chapter is more of an analysis of the generations shaping global consumption today than about 2030 situation.
3. The middle class shift from the West to the East - again nothing surprising, it is a global trend for some time, no surprises here. The author uses the outdated division of "developed world" and "developing world", which is quite inappropriate already in this century, the borders are non existent already. The chapter is again sympathetic to millennials identifying them as a generation in impasse concerning getting into the middle class and forecasting growing inequality, although the global trends are showing an opposite effect. It mentions UBI with no clear forecasts - will it be implemented or not and in general all chapters are finishing with an ambiguous conclusion that basically is not saying yes or no to any trend.
4. Women will own 55% of the global wealth - again nothing surprising, the trend is there and with the majority of graduates being females and more participation in the labour market it is a normal forecast. Although the chapter states some ideas that are rather opinions having zero evidence for them, like for example if women would be in charge in 2008 the financial crisis would not happen. A big part of the chapter (70%) is dedicated to women's issues and suffering over the ages, as well as the warning that even advanced societies could go back to the dark ages and women could lose everything, which goes against the main idea of the chapter. You'll not find anything new in this chapter and do not look for formulas how the author got to 55% of wealth in women's hand by 2030, it is just a number that is never analysed. The author states that unmarried and childless women are happier in life based on a debunked study of professor Paul Dolan that recognized in 2019 that he made an error in interpreting the results of the phone poll the study was based on. As well the numerous studies that prove the opposite were totally ignored by the author of the book. The most bizzare conclusion can be found at the end of the chapter: " more women will be in managerial positions, though they will be a minority. In the private sector they will be grossly underrepresented... It is unlikely, however, that the gender wage gap will disappear...". At the same time the author begins the chapter with the idea that the majority of wealth will be in the control of women. May be due to the fact that they inherit the wealth from their dying husbands - this idea is persistent in the chapter.
5. Urbanisation and climate change. Nothing new in both trends. But again the author claims women and children will suffer more as a result of climate change, but no evidence for that. Just some testimonials of some poor women in an American city. Statistically there are more homeless men, but they did not manage to be heard, probably. The climate change forecast is rarely backed up by studies, it is presented in this manner: "climate change will inevitably affect the water cycle in unforseen ways,", but why and what is the source of this trend - we do not know. The end of the chapter is revolutionary - successful cities of the future must be based on 3 T's - Talent, Tolerance and Technology, it is unclear why only three and why only these ones, but that is it. The end of the chapter is apocalyptic 80% of city population will be subjected to salt water due to rising sea levels - how we got to this number is unknown.
6. Creative destruction will rule and we'll have more mobiles than toilets in the world. I think this is already happening so no surprises here. You can find some inspirational stories and examples of creative destruction cases from the past, no forecasts for the future. In one part of the chapter the author while discussing nanotechnology and climate change suddenly jumps to cancer and nanotechnology, not sure how this connects to climate change though.
7.Sharing economy and the triumph of Neo-Marxism. The chapter is citing John Lennon "Imagine" multiple times and it is not more than just an imagination exercise, because it is not dealing in numbers and statistical data.
8. Cryptocurrencies. Actually an interesting chapter on how cryprotechnology can be used for various things. The most useful chapter probably from the book, but could not avoid some social justice issues like death of ownership and raise of lease generation or saving the planet - the planet does not need saving, it is a piece of rock floating in space, we can try to save us and the current biodiversity, not the planet.
9. Conclusions that look more as advices from a self-improvement book and can be summorised as be positive and see crisis as an opportunity. That basically was self-evident without the need to read this book.
Another important point - the book seems written for the American reader, so not incredibly fun for people not living in US.
The book seems to be written in a hurry and the style of personal testimonials, citations of famous personalities (businessmen, philosophers, authors of fictional content) succes and disaster stories from business - mainly companies, as well as a persistent accent on social justice matters is not the best format for such a book. There is no chapter in the book that sticks to the point it is presenting in the begining, we have an amalgamation of issues that sounds more as a debate between drunk people at a party - people that want to seem very smart, but lack the capacity being drunk that they just exchange some banalities.
First of all you'll find nothing new regarding what you already know about the future. When you write about global trends for the short term future it is probably the wisest thing is to take the already observed trends and extrapolate and analyse them, like for example the book of Hans Rosling, "Factfullness" that is doing exactly that but in a very convincing manner - using numbers to forecast a 2050 world, even if this is not the main goal of it. In fact this book is the opposite of Rosling's one - it begins with an idea of urgency and end of days if we do not act quickly - "the clock is ticking" it says.
Now to briefly go through the chapters and the trends "discovered", but known to any human being reading the news:
1.The number of babies will decline. Well the majority of scientists say it will stay the same aproximatively, especially if we think about 2030, it is rather close. Also you can find the idea that repeats itself in the book that women and kids rule the world, but suffer the most as we'll discover later on. A big part (around 40% of it) of the chapter is dedicated to convincing the reader that immigration is good, although I am not sure how this connects to the fertility issue discussed in the chapter.
2. The aging of the population - nothing new so far, but the chapter with a rant about why people have stereotypes over millennials - not sure how this connects to the chapter's main forecast. The entire chapter is more of an analysis of the generations shaping global consumption today than about 2030 situation.
3. The middle class shift from the West to the East - again nothing surprising, it is a global trend for some time, no surprises here. The author uses the outdated division of "developed world" and "developing world", which is quite inappropriate already in this century, the borders are non existent already. The chapter is again sympathetic to millennials identifying them as a generation in impasse concerning getting into the middle class and forecasting growing inequality, although the global trends are showing an opposite effect. It mentions UBI with no clear forecasts - will it be implemented or not and in general all chapters are finishing with an ambiguous conclusion that basically is not saying yes or no to any trend.
4. Women will own 55% of the global wealth - again nothing surprising, the trend is there and with the majority of graduates being females and more participation in the labour market it is a normal forecast. Although the chapter states some ideas that are rather opinions having zero evidence for them, like for example if women would be in charge in 2008 the financial crisis would not happen. A big part of the chapter (70%) is dedicated to women's issues and suffering over the ages, as well as the warning that even advanced societies could go back to the dark ages and women could lose everything, which goes against the main idea of the chapter. You'll not find anything new in this chapter and do not look for formulas how the author got to 55% of wealth in women's hand by 2030, it is just a number that is never analysed. The author states that unmarried and childless women are happier in life based on a debunked study of professor Paul Dolan that recognized in 2019 that he made an error in interpreting the results of the phone poll the study was based on. As well the numerous studies that prove the opposite were totally ignored by the author of the book. The most bizzare conclusion can be found at the end of the chapter: " more women will be in managerial positions, though they will be a minority. In the private sector they will be grossly underrepresented... It is unlikely, however, that the gender wage gap will disappear...". At the same time the author begins the chapter with the idea that the majority of wealth will be in the control of women. May be due to the fact that they inherit the wealth from their dying husbands - this idea is persistent in the chapter.
5. Urbanisation and climate change. Nothing new in both trends. But again the author claims women and children will suffer more as a result of climate change, but no evidence for that. Just some testimonials of some poor women in an American city. Statistically there are more homeless men, but they did not manage to be heard, probably. The climate change forecast is rarely backed up by studies, it is presented in this manner: "climate change will inevitably affect the water cycle in unforseen ways,", but why and what is the source of this trend - we do not know. The end of the chapter is revolutionary - successful cities of the future must be based on 3 T's - Talent, Tolerance and Technology, it is unclear why only three and why only these ones, but that is it. The end of the chapter is apocalyptic 80% of city population will be subjected to salt water due to rising sea levels - how we got to this number is unknown.
6. Creative destruction will rule and we'll have more mobiles than toilets in the world. I think this is already happening so no surprises here. You can find some inspirational stories and examples of creative destruction cases from the past, no forecasts for the future. In one part of the chapter the author while discussing nanotechnology and climate change suddenly jumps to cancer and nanotechnology, not sure how this connects to climate change though.
7.Sharing economy and the triumph of Neo-Marxism. The chapter is citing John Lennon "Imagine" multiple times and it is not more than just an imagination exercise, because it is not dealing in numbers and statistical data.
8. Cryptocurrencies. Actually an interesting chapter on how cryprotechnology can be used for various things. The most useful chapter probably from the book, but could not avoid some social justice issues like death of ownership and raise of lease generation or saving the planet - the planet does not need saving, it is a piece of rock floating in space, we can try to save us and the current biodiversity, not the planet.
9. Conclusions that look more as advices from a self-improvement book and can be summorised as be positive and see crisis as an opportunity. That basically was self-evident without the need to read this book.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
December 10, 2020
Received this in return for an honest review through Goodreads Giveaways.
I was excited to receive this book because back in the day, I enjoyed The Popcorn Report. It's always fun to look into the crystal ball.
While I don't argue with any of the trends, they are primarily demographic based. As a market researcher myself, I am well educated on these facts. So there was no much new for me. I am also a Bitcoiner and did enjoy the section about cryptocurrency.
Other than that, it was okay. Perhaps those who want to know more about the demographic changes coming would find it more interesting than I did (with a little more first hand knowledge). So, even though I gave it 2 stars, I believe others will rate it higher.
I was excited to receive this book because back in the day, I enjoyed The Popcorn Report. It's always fun to look into the crystal ball.
While I don't argue with any of the trends, they are primarily demographic based. As a market researcher myself, I am well educated on these facts. So there was no much new for me. I am also a Bitcoiner and did enjoy the section about cryptocurrency.
Other than that, it was okay. Perhaps those who want to know more about the demographic changes coming would find it more interesting than I did (with a little more first hand knowledge). So, even though I gave it 2 stars, I believe others will rate it higher.
June 8, 2020
Would Lehman Brothers have had a more encouraging prospect if it was Lehmann Sisters instead? What is the connection between block-chain technology and a national election? In his book “2030” (one of the shortest ever main titles for a book succeeded by what has to be one of the longest subtitles ever for any literary work), Mauro F. Guillen, Zandman Professor of International Management, Wharton School and Director, Lauder Institute, tackles these questions along with a whole horde of seemingly unconnected but intricately linked phenomena as he proceeds to dissect some of the most disruptive trends that the world would be a spectator to by the year 2030.
The book mulls about the tectonic trends, that by the year 2030 would put paid to the conventional, and upend received wisdom. For example, as the author highlights, the most powerful middle class both in terms of sheer population and purchasing power by the year 2030 would be in India and China. In a humorous take on Arthur R. “Pop” Momand’s memorable conception of “Keeping up with the Joneses”, Mr. Guillen mulls that in future, it would be a case of “Keeping Up With the Singhs and Wangs.” This is also in line with the funnel of innovation that seems to have sprouted in the two most populous nations on Earth. “…while in 2016, the number of patent applications filed in the United States was three times greater than in 1995, in India it was seven times greater, and in China, a whopping seventy-two times greater.”
If you are a woman and you are reading this, drop whatever it is that may be doing, do a cartwheel, or two, and whoop out in undisguised glee. For according to Mr. Guillen, women will get rich – and most importantly richer than men – by the year 2030. This trend, the author argues is in keeping with the famous, or rather infamous (depending upon how one interprets the findings), “Harvard-Yale Study” that “resonated with educated women who were trying to balance their professional goals with personal life.” From a risk aversion perspective, women tend to spend more on their own physical and mental well being and are more inclined to ensure that their parents, off-spring and grandchildren get the healthcare that is essential. The author after quoting Gloria Steinem “we can tell our values by looking at our checkbook stubs”, argues that, “its not much of a stretch to argue that if instead of Lehman Brothers we had Lehman Sisters, the crisis of 2008 might have been averted.”
Whilst holding forth on futuristic trends, one cannot afford to either neglect or ignore the existential threat of Global Warming, and neither does Mr. Guillen. Cities, according to him have become teeming masses of humanity and unless drastic and conscientious measures are instituted, these megapolises face imminent peril. “Cities occupy 1 percent of the world’s land yet are home to about 55 percent of the human population. Told another way, the total land mass on Earth is 196.9 million square miles and cities account for roughly 2 million of those. With 4 billion urban residents, that’s an average of 2,000 people per square mile in cities, which is quite a crowd. Cities account for 75 percent of total energy consumption and 80 percent of total carbon emissions.” Sobering statistic and a time for introspection in so far as humanity, that is more tightly packed than a cliched can of sardines, is concerned.
An added melancholic aspect attached to the new age city, according to the author is its dehumanization. Mr. Guillen proclaims that our cities have lost their soul and are beginning to alienate themselves. Characterised by stereotypical architecture and grotesquely towering monuments, that bear shameless testimony – in addition to paying brazen obeisance – to capitalism, one cannot but agree with Mr. Guillen. Drawing his reader’s attention to the twentieth century Italian metaphysical painter Giorgio de Chirico, Mr. Guillen mulls about the bleak paintings of the acclaimed artist. He also quotes the poet Federico Garcia Lorca, who in 1929 after a stay in New York said, “there is nothing more poetic and terrible than the skyscrapers’ battle with the heavens that cover them.”
Mr. Guillen also offers a kind of liberation and escape from the vice like grip of a city life. Drawing on the principle of “mundanity of excellence” – a term coined by the sociologist Daniel Chambliss, Mr. Guillen educates his readers that high performance is not a natural outcome or corollary of quantum leaps or innate talent, but, a product of a series of tiny and incremental improvements.
Mr. Guillen also jumps on the bandwagon of vertical farming and its perceivable benefits (if this statement comes across as an exercise in complaining, then I ask the author to pardon me.). This proposition of Dickson Despommier of Columbia University has fast gained traction, and companies such as Sky Greens, Green Collar Foods and Artesian Farms have made a veritable enterprise out of the novel concept.
But one of the most important trends identified by Mr. Guillen in “2030” appears in a chapter titled “Imagine No Possessions.” An obvious take on John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s immortal melody, this chapter deals about the inescapable rise of the gig economy. The likes of Uber and Airbnb have demonstrated with a chilling precision that the best way to enjoy possession is by not possessing the product or the service or the experience that triggers such enjoyment! As Mr. Guillen illustrates, “in 2014 Facebook paid $19 billion to purchase WhatsApp, a messaging app with virtually no physical assets to speak of and fewer than sixty employees.” Airbnb, in addition to providing hassle free accommodation to the egregious back packer also bestows upon the owner a spectacular financial benefit. A senior citizen who owns a house can now earn a steady income by letting out a part of his property without being beholden to a bank, which otherwise would have been the unfortunate case in the event loans were obtained with the house as an inevitable collateral.
However, the gig economy brings along with it, a set of unfortunate inconveniences. Crowded cities, and traffic congestion may result in a tragedy of commons, a concept pioneered by the sociologist Garrett Hardin, in 1968, and first observed by the nineteenth century British economist William Forster Lloyd, who penned the environmental hazards that might accrue as a result of grazing on unregulated lands.
Mr. Guillen rounds off his book with a Chapter on Bitcoins and Cryptocurrencies. The burgeoning rise of cryptocurrencies has ensured that there are more currencies on Earth than countries. What makes cryptocurrencies very alluring is their perceivable safety. “Consider that the odds of guessing a winning Powerball lottery number is 1 in 292 million. The probability of hacking a bitcoin private key, which uses 256-bit encryption, is a minuscule 1 in 2 to the power of 256, or 1 in over 115 quattuorvigintillion – a number with 78 digits. That’s equivalent to the odds of winning Powerball nine times in a row.”
Estonia seems to have grasped this concept perfectly well. Presenting itself to the world as “e-Estonia”, the country is a Digital Republic. The citizens, as the author points out can apply for benefits, source medical prescriptions, register their businesses, vote and even access nearly three thousand other digital services online. The author opines that from facilitating elections to funding development, blockchain technology may be the way forward.
As we are trying to tortuously untangle ourselves from the grip of an insidious pandemic, words like the “new Normal”, “social distancing etc.” are rewriting our everyday Lexicon and rewiring our attitudes and outlook. These unprecedented times are the ones where re-imagination, reinvention and repackaging would save the day for mankind. Yet more trends, perhaps for Mr. Guillen to seriously start mulling about a sequel!
(2030 How Today’s Biggest Trends will collide and reshape the future of everything by Mauro F. Guillen, a St Martin’s Press Publication published on the 25th of August 2020).
The book mulls about the tectonic trends, that by the year 2030 would put paid to the conventional, and upend received wisdom. For example, as the author highlights, the most powerful middle class both in terms of sheer population and purchasing power by the year 2030 would be in India and China. In a humorous take on Arthur R. “Pop” Momand’s memorable conception of “Keeping up with the Joneses”, Mr. Guillen mulls that in future, it would be a case of “Keeping Up With the Singhs and Wangs.” This is also in line with the funnel of innovation that seems to have sprouted in the two most populous nations on Earth. “…while in 2016, the number of patent applications filed in the United States was three times greater than in 1995, in India it was seven times greater, and in China, a whopping seventy-two times greater.”
If you are a woman and you are reading this, drop whatever it is that may be doing, do a cartwheel, or two, and whoop out in undisguised glee. For according to Mr. Guillen, women will get rich – and most importantly richer than men – by the year 2030. This trend, the author argues is in keeping with the famous, or rather infamous (depending upon how one interprets the findings), “Harvard-Yale Study” that “resonated with educated women who were trying to balance their professional goals with personal life.” From a risk aversion perspective, women tend to spend more on their own physical and mental well being and are more inclined to ensure that their parents, off-spring and grandchildren get the healthcare that is essential. The author after quoting Gloria Steinem “we can tell our values by looking at our checkbook stubs”, argues that, “its not much of a stretch to argue that if instead of Lehman Brothers we had Lehman Sisters, the crisis of 2008 might have been averted.”
Whilst holding forth on futuristic trends, one cannot afford to either neglect or ignore the existential threat of Global Warming, and neither does Mr. Guillen. Cities, according to him have become teeming masses of humanity and unless drastic and conscientious measures are instituted, these megapolises face imminent peril. “Cities occupy 1 percent of the world’s land yet are home to about 55 percent of the human population. Told another way, the total land mass on Earth is 196.9 million square miles and cities account for roughly 2 million of those. With 4 billion urban residents, that’s an average of 2,000 people per square mile in cities, which is quite a crowd. Cities account for 75 percent of total energy consumption and 80 percent of total carbon emissions.” Sobering statistic and a time for introspection in so far as humanity, that is more tightly packed than a cliched can of sardines, is concerned.
An added melancholic aspect attached to the new age city, according to the author is its dehumanization. Mr. Guillen proclaims that our cities have lost their soul and are beginning to alienate themselves. Characterised by stereotypical architecture and grotesquely towering monuments, that bear shameless testimony – in addition to paying brazen obeisance – to capitalism, one cannot but agree with Mr. Guillen. Drawing his reader’s attention to the twentieth century Italian metaphysical painter Giorgio de Chirico, Mr. Guillen mulls about the bleak paintings of the acclaimed artist. He also quotes the poet Federico Garcia Lorca, who in 1929 after a stay in New York said, “there is nothing more poetic and terrible than the skyscrapers’ battle with the heavens that cover them.”
Mr. Guillen also offers a kind of liberation and escape from the vice like grip of a city life. Drawing on the principle of “mundanity of excellence” – a term coined by the sociologist Daniel Chambliss, Mr. Guillen educates his readers that high performance is not a natural outcome or corollary of quantum leaps or innate talent, but, a product of a series of tiny and incremental improvements.
Mr. Guillen also jumps on the bandwagon of vertical farming and its perceivable benefits (if this statement comes across as an exercise in complaining, then I ask the author to pardon me.). This proposition of Dickson Despommier of Columbia University has fast gained traction, and companies such as Sky Greens, Green Collar Foods and Artesian Farms have made a veritable enterprise out of the novel concept.
But one of the most important trends identified by Mr. Guillen in “2030” appears in a chapter titled “Imagine No Possessions.” An obvious take on John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s immortal melody, this chapter deals about the inescapable rise of the gig economy. The likes of Uber and Airbnb have demonstrated with a chilling precision that the best way to enjoy possession is by not possessing the product or the service or the experience that triggers such enjoyment! As Mr. Guillen illustrates, “in 2014 Facebook paid $19 billion to purchase WhatsApp, a messaging app with virtually no physical assets to speak of and fewer than sixty employees.” Airbnb, in addition to providing hassle free accommodation to the egregious back packer also bestows upon the owner a spectacular financial benefit. A senior citizen who owns a house can now earn a steady income by letting out a part of his property without being beholden to a bank, which otherwise would have been the unfortunate case in the event loans were obtained with the house as an inevitable collateral.
However, the gig economy brings along with it, a set of unfortunate inconveniences. Crowded cities, and traffic congestion may result in a tragedy of commons, a concept pioneered by the sociologist Garrett Hardin, in 1968, and first observed by the nineteenth century British economist William Forster Lloyd, who penned the environmental hazards that might accrue as a result of grazing on unregulated lands.
Mr. Guillen rounds off his book with a Chapter on Bitcoins and Cryptocurrencies. The burgeoning rise of cryptocurrencies has ensured that there are more currencies on Earth than countries. What makes cryptocurrencies very alluring is their perceivable safety. “Consider that the odds of guessing a winning Powerball lottery number is 1 in 292 million. The probability of hacking a bitcoin private key, which uses 256-bit encryption, is a minuscule 1 in 2 to the power of 256, or 1 in over 115 quattuorvigintillion – a number with 78 digits. That’s equivalent to the odds of winning Powerball nine times in a row.”
Estonia seems to have grasped this concept perfectly well. Presenting itself to the world as “e-Estonia”, the country is a Digital Republic. The citizens, as the author points out can apply for benefits, source medical prescriptions, register their businesses, vote and even access nearly three thousand other digital services online. The author opines that from facilitating elections to funding development, blockchain technology may be the way forward.
As we are trying to tortuously untangle ourselves from the grip of an insidious pandemic, words like the “new Normal”, “social distancing etc.” are rewriting our everyday Lexicon and rewiring our attitudes and outlook. These unprecedented times are the ones where re-imagination, reinvention and repackaging would save the day for mankind. Yet more trends, perhaps for Mr. Guillen to seriously start mulling about a sequel!
(2030 How Today’s Biggest Trends will collide and reshape the future of everything by Mauro F. Guillen, a St Martin’s Press Publication published on the 25th of August 2020).
August 2, 2020
Interesting look at some of the trends today and how they are likely to affect us ten years from now. But Guillen looks at it mostly from a business perspective, even though it touches on some social issues. I particularly found his analysis of population trends interesting: wealthier people and countries generally have smaller families, and in countries like the United States that means an aging population and less people contributing to social security. With the current emphasis against immigration, we may be facing not only a labor shortage but many may need to work significantly beyond the usual retirement age in order to make ends meet. This also means that the “gray" population will be more influential than is generally assumed, and Millennials may not always be the best audience to target for advertisers.
Places where the population is growing and getting younger, such as Africa, India, and Southeast Asia, will become much more influential than America in global markets. He also talks about the increasing importance of cell phones in emerging markets, and some places in Africa are more “wired" than the United States. He also talks about the "sharing" economy and growing importance of things like Airbnb and Uber. And one area where he honestly kind of lost me was the section about cryptocurrencies. He believes they will become increasingly important, although I wasn’t as convinced and thought this was one of the weaker parts.
I received an advance copy from net galley which says the book includes an update about the coronavirus pandemic, but my copy unfortunately has no such update. 3.5 stars but rounding up to 4.
Places where the population is growing and getting younger, such as Africa, India, and Southeast Asia, will become much more influential than America in global markets. He also talks about the increasing importance of cell phones in emerging markets, and some places in Africa are more “wired" than the United States. He also talks about the "sharing" economy and growing importance of things like Airbnb and Uber. And one area where he honestly kind of lost me was the section about cryptocurrencies. He believes they will become increasingly important, although I wasn’t as convinced and thought this was one of the weaker parts.
I received an advance copy from net galley which says the book includes an update about the coronavirus pandemic, but my copy unfortunately has no such update. 3.5 stars but rounding up to 4.
August 17, 2020
"Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow" --Fleetwood Mac
As I too fast approach octogenarian status, I'm ever more aware that I'm not ready to leave this world (whether I'm looking down or up when I get there is a topic for another day). A big reason for this is my fascination with what the future has in store. Some of that is influenced by where I started - growing up using crank telephones, watching a tiny black-and-white TV screen while my dad was on the roof rotating the TV antenna to get the channel we wanted (one of only three available, I might add) and helping my mom put soppy wet clothes through the wringer of her washing machine. I gravitated toward books written by futurists - researchers like Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Faith Popcorn.
So when this book came within my sights, I zeroed in. And I certainly wasn't disappointed - if anything, it's made me more determined to hang around as long as I can to see how the author's predictions play out. He holds the Zandman Professorship in International Management at the Wharton School, and clearly he's done extensive research on the subject (just check out the extensive list of sources at the end of the book). But while he's an academic, the book really doesn't read like a textbook (neither is it something you can skim, but it was so interesting that doing that never entered my mind). He got my attention early on with just one sentence: "Simply put, the world as we know it today will be gone by 2030."
Oh yeah? Tell me more. And he does, in eight chapters that focus on various topics ranging from changing demographics - by 2030, for instance, the world's largest generation will be age 60 and up (even today, they own 80% of the net worth in the United States alone) and half of the world's wealth will be owned by women 10 years from now. Also interesting to me is the change in birth rates; by 2030, the author notes, one-third of American men and two-thirds of American women will retire childless. As for technology, we ain't seen nuthin' yet. By 2030, there will be more computers than human brains and more robotic arms than human labor in the manufacturing sector. "Artificial Intelligence will bring about epochal change," the author maintains. We're also moving fast toward a cashless world. Today, more than 80% of all international trade is invoiced in dollars - but that will change (pun intended) fast.
For I've read that the author has added his take on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to the final version of the book, but alas, my pre-release copy for review (for which I thank the publisher, via NetGalley), did not include it. I'd also be interested in his opinion on what effect the current U.S. administration will have on progress, but that's not in here either. I'm no expert, but I do have a couple of theories. First, the advances in technology noted here that relate to our personal lives - like a no-currency, no bank society - may be slowed because the current administration is allowing - even encouraging - people who believe the government is conspiring against them to come out of the woodwork. No way will these folks willingly give up their "guaranteed Constitutional right to privacy," no matter how much it may improve their quality of life. Meanwhile, the pandemic has shown us (well, at least my husband and I) that we can see, hear and buy just about anything we need and want without ever leaving home; that could help speed up the permeation of technology into just about every facet of daily living (especially the cashless society thing). Only time will tell - but if you want to get ready, I encourage you to read this book.
As I too fast approach octogenarian status, I'm ever more aware that I'm not ready to leave this world (whether I'm looking down or up when I get there is a topic for another day). A big reason for this is my fascination with what the future has in store. Some of that is influenced by where I started - growing up using crank telephones, watching a tiny black-and-white TV screen while my dad was on the roof rotating the TV antenna to get the channel we wanted (one of only three available, I might add) and helping my mom put soppy wet clothes through the wringer of her washing machine. I gravitated toward books written by futurists - researchers like Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Faith Popcorn.
So when this book came within my sights, I zeroed in. And I certainly wasn't disappointed - if anything, it's made me more determined to hang around as long as I can to see how the author's predictions play out. He holds the Zandman Professorship in International Management at the Wharton School, and clearly he's done extensive research on the subject (just check out the extensive list of sources at the end of the book). But while he's an academic, the book really doesn't read like a textbook (neither is it something you can skim, but it was so interesting that doing that never entered my mind). He got my attention early on with just one sentence: "Simply put, the world as we know it today will be gone by 2030."
Oh yeah? Tell me more. And he does, in eight chapters that focus on various topics ranging from changing demographics - by 2030, for instance, the world's largest generation will be age 60 and up (even today, they own 80% of the net worth in the United States alone) and half of the world's wealth will be owned by women 10 years from now. Also interesting to me is the change in birth rates; by 2030, the author notes, one-third of American men and two-thirds of American women will retire childless. As for technology, we ain't seen nuthin' yet. By 2030, there will be more computers than human brains and more robotic arms than human labor in the manufacturing sector. "Artificial Intelligence will bring about epochal change," the author maintains. We're also moving fast toward a cashless world. Today, more than 80% of all international trade is invoiced in dollars - but that will change (pun intended) fast.
For I've read that the author has added his take on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to the final version of the book, but alas, my pre-release copy for review (for which I thank the publisher, via NetGalley), did not include it. I'd also be interested in his opinion on what effect the current U.S. administration will have on progress, but that's not in here either. I'm no expert, but I do have a couple of theories. First, the advances in technology noted here that relate to our personal lives - like a no-currency, no bank society - may be slowed because the current administration is allowing - even encouraging - people who believe the government is conspiring against them to come out of the woodwork. No way will these folks willingly give up their "guaranteed Constitutional right to privacy," no matter how much it may improve their quality of life. Meanwhile, the pandemic has shown us (well, at least my husband and I) that we can see, hear and buy just about anything we need and want without ever leaving home; that could help speed up the permeation of technology into just about every facet of daily living (especially the cashless society thing). Only time will tell - but if you want to get ready, I encourage you to read this book.
May 26, 2020
I used to have the opinion that a non-fiction book better be right to be good. Maybe, Just maybe....
Here comes Thomas Robert Malthus 3.0. Mauro F. Guillen takes the reader through a series of topics over the course of the book, explaining current changes we see in society, geography and technology. He takes current observations and trends, calculates some magic formulas in his head, generates forecasts and comes up with general climate for our way of living 10 years from now.
As Thomas Malthus or John Maynard Keynes before him, he is going to be wrong, we know that. The former two lived during the industrial revolution, but did not anticipate the innovations the agricultural revolution brought. Mauro of course cannot predict major disruptions caused by things no one can see yet, like a major unprecedented pandemic, for example. There also will be technologies emerging, faster than ever.
But at the end, Thomas Malthus "Essay on the principles of population" was still a stellar publication, the author still famous, and we are still worried about how we use the resources on this planet 200 years after its publication. This book is a refresher on the same thought process. At the conclusion he kind of sort of admits that he is likely going to be wrong and brings his thoughts to a very sensible ending. It is the shift of your thinking that makes this book great, and it is ok if he is going to be wrong. His thought process isn't.
Here comes Thomas Robert Malthus 3.0. Mauro F. Guillen takes the reader through a series of topics over the course of the book, explaining current changes we see in society, geography and technology. He takes current observations and trends, calculates some magic formulas in his head, generates forecasts and comes up with general climate for our way of living 10 years from now.
As Thomas Malthus or John Maynard Keynes before him, he is going to be wrong, we know that. The former two lived during the industrial revolution, but did not anticipate the innovations the agricultural revolution brought. Mauro of course cannot predict major disruptions caused by things no one can see yet, like a major unprecedented pandemic, for example. There also will be technologies emerging, faster than ever.
But at the end, Thomas Malthus "Essay on the principles of population" was still a stellar publication, the author still famous, and we are still worried about how we use the resources on this planet 200 years after its publication. This book is a refresher on the same thought process. At the conclusion he kind of sort of admits that he is likely going to be wrong and brings his thoughts to a very sensible ending. It is the shift of your thinking that makes this book great, and it is ok if he is going to be wrong. His thought process isn't.
May 15, 2020
Certainly an interesting read, thoughtful and thorough. What gives this book its optimistic, adaptation-focused tone also reads as a bit slavishly pro-captialism at times. But it's not actively trying to push this attitude, so it's not too alienating because of that -- still a valuable, well-researched read.
May 20, 2022
The first third is about global demographics, and is undebatable, uncontroversial and quite stunning. 9 out of 10 babies now born are in south asia and africa, and 450million babies will be born in the 2030s in Africa. It is hard to understate what this means for world consumption patterns and future economic development. Popularizing this critical insight is valuable.
Guillen also devotes a chapter to the demographics of aging, and I believe he had even more expertise than the book reveals. Immigration and investment patterns matter, so could he have said that more open borders are inevitable, because the EU and US need elder care, and the elderly are able to pay for it? EU/US retirement security depends on elevated stock and housing prices.. and can that happen even as China is kinda failing to create this institutional financial security? Which other society will manage to get rich before it gets old... because I can't see one.. even eastern europe is not on the cusp.
From here, Guillen demonstrates less understanding of the resource based, mass industrial economy that I would expect from a Wharton professor. He insists there is a huge opportunity for education in the demographically growing regions, but doesn't draw the line to what type of economy this would create. How do we get Chinese size factories in Africa, much less a simple doubling of food production. How does India come to build necessary infrastructure?
Covid happened just as this book went to press, and Covid legitimized the institutions of government, and it looks that pandemics are a new part of our shared globe. The Russian war and the EU climate saving response are not in this book, showing how much is likely to disrupt any visions of 2030. Demographics are destiny and profitable technology is inevitable.. just from here a better book was possible.
In its weakest last third, the book seeks use cases for the blockchain, idolizes 3D printing and nanotech, and looks for opportunity in the climate crisis. Guillen covers AI a lot, but seems to miss the most likely use cases, including personalizing advertising and feed content. I'm all for technology, but if it is this important, will it not keep enriching the owners of the IP in the US/EU/EastAsia?
I like the optimist tone, especially in the final pages... most encouraging, yet also a bit vacuous.
Guillen also devotes a chapter to the demographics of aging, and I believe he had even more expertise than the book reveals. Immigration and investment patterns matter, so could he have said that more open borders are inevitable, because the EU and US need elder care, and the elderly are able to pay for it? EU/US retirement security depends on elevated stock and housing prices.. and can that happen even as China is kinda failing to create this institutional financial security? Which other society will manage to get rich before it gets old... because I can't see one.. even eastern europe is not on the cusp.
From here, Guillen demonstrates less understanding of the resource based, mass industrial economy that I would expect from a Wharton professor. He insists there is a huge opportunity for education in the demographically growing regions, but doesn't draw the line to what type of economy this would create. How do we get Chinese size factories in Africa, much less a simple doubling of food production. How does India come to build necessary infrastructure?
Covid happened just as this book went to press, and Covid legitimized the institutions of government, and it looks that pandemics are a new part of our shared globe. The Russian war and the EU climate saving response are not in this book, showing how much is likely to disrupt any visions of 2030. Demographics are destiny and profitable technology is inevitable.. just from here a better book was possible.
In its weakest last third, the book seeks use cases for the blockchain, idolizes 3D printing and nanotech, and looks for opportunity in the climate crisis. Guillen covers AI a lot, but seems to miss the most likely use cases, including personalizing advertising and feed content. I'm all for technology, but if it is this important, will it not keep enriching the owners of the IP in the US/EU/EastAsia?
I like the optimist tone, especially in the final pages... most encouraging, yet also a bit vacuous.
January 19, 2022
it's like a science fiction book. The author gives many aspects.
Some interesting topics for me are the development of the continents mentioned by the author, how the development depends on the birth rate in Africa, the age/personal in Europe and America, the industry in Asia and the payment/share/household in the country.
Some interesting topics for me are the development of the continents mentioned by the author, how the development depends on the birth rate in Africa, the age/personal in Europe and America, the industry in Asia and the payment/share/household in the country.
March 24, 2021
Excellent book
June 3, 2021
Way too insanely speculative. This was a bad book.
August 2, 2022
When I first saw the title of this book, I though - ah I will read it later 2030 is far away, but then it hit me that is actually so close.
In general, I liked book and the way all chapters are arranged. On the other hand, perhaps I expected a bit more from the content and forecasts itself.
Key take aways - everything is related, bigger changes are coming, you should try being more flexible and caring for the environment itself, would say nothing major here I haven't thought about before.
There were some interesting thoughts and ideas written I was not familiar with, but in general good reminder that 2030 is not far away and that all of us one way or another are doing the impact on the universe.
In general, I liked book and the way all chapters are arranged. On the other hand, perhaps I expected a bit more from the content and forecasts itself.
Key take aways - everything is related, bigger changes are coming, you should try being more flexible and caring for the environment itself, would say nothing major here I haven't thought about before.
There were some interesting thoughts and ideas written I was not familiar with, but in general good reminder that 2030 is not far away and that all of us one way or another are doing the impact on the universe.
August 27, 2021
A study on future events and trends the rise of asia and the down ward trend of the wests power is the main prediction among others.
May 17, 2024
A must read book for those who want to understand the changes that is happening in this world from economics, environment, financial and trend that will affect our lives in 2030.
June 28, 2022
Interesting look into how the world will evolve in the next ~10 years, I've learned a lot personally. This is not necessarily a technology focus like I see in other similar books, but rather larger trends like how population growth and decline in different countries will reshape the world economy, what it means as we live longer (and hopefully fuller) lives, the new booming middle class in India & China (the US middle-class is shrinking), global warming and sustainability, regions that are leapfrogging technology, modern-day currency and more.
July 28, 2022
Paprastai ir aiškiai parašyta apie tai, kas mūsų laukia netolimoje ateityje, kokie vykstantys technologiniai pokyčiai/proveržiai pakeis visuomenę. Esminis gvildenamas klausimas: "Kaip priimti naujas galimybes ir kaip tvarkytis su naujai iškylančiais iššūkiais."
June 4, 2021
This is a fascinating book on where current trends are taking us. Women will own more wealth than men, diminishing number of kids and the rise of Africa were some of the elements the author discusses and how they will lead to profound changes in our near future.
October 25, 2020
Guillén is paid to give talks to CEOs and this book is a summary of it. 2030 is not far away and already some trends are clear.
1. Birth rate is dropping everywhere except in India and Africa. By 2030 there will be more middle class people in China and India. The developed world will remain relatively stagnant.
2. Gray is the new black: more seniors will work to supplement their pension and they are the ones with money, just waiting for smart people to sell them the right stuff.
3. Women are going to be even richer and they will be the new entrepreneurs. They will want more stuff and services.
4. Global warming will affect cities
5. Developing countries may jump some technologies as compared to developed ones. Most people in Subsharan Africa have a cellphone but many have no running water or toilet.
6. Network effects will ensure the power of platform continues
7. Sharing economy will change consumer behaviour: the old will rent out their place to the young; gig jobs will be taken mostly to supplement the income of people who already have jobs. Increased inequality will ensue.
8. Blockchain currencies will not really succeed because governments will control it. The technology will survive though, as a ledger, automatic contract etc.
9. How to succeed: be nimble, leave many exits, change often. No one can predict the future but we all adapt to it.
The book save me tons of cash from having to pay a lot more for the lectures; nonetheless it is less exciting than I expected and I feel the content of each chapter felt rather haphazardly brought together. So 4 stars.
1. Birth rate is dropping everywhere except in India and Africa. By 2030 there will be more middle class people in China and India. The developed world will remain relatively stagnant.
2. Gray is the new black: more seniors will work to supplement their pension and they are the ones with money, just waiting for smart people to sell them the right stuff.
3. Women are going to be even richer and they will be the new entrepreneurs. They will want more stuff and services.
4. Global warming will affect cities
5. Developing countries may jump some technologies as compared to developed ones. Most people in Subsharan Africa have a cellphone but many have no running water or toilet.
6. Network effects will ensure the power of platform continues
7. Sharing economy will change consumer behaviour: the old will rent out their place to the young; gig jobs will be taken mostly to supplement the income of people who already have jobs. Increased inequality will ensue.
8. Blockchain currencies will not really succeed because governments will control it. The technology will survive though, as a ledger, automatic contract etc.
9. How to succeed: be nimble, leave many exits, change often. No one can predict the future but we all adapt to it.
The book save me tons of cash from having to pay a lot more for the lectures; nonetheless it is less exciting than I expected and I feel the content of each chapter felt rather haphazardly brought together. So 4 stars.
May 26, 2023
ในปัจจุบัน อัตราการเกิดของประชากรน้อยลง ประชากรเกิดในพื้นที่บางประเทศ ผู้หญิงหันมาทำงานเพิ่มมากขึ้น อัตราการมีลูกลดลง เมืองที่มีความเจริญมีผู้สูงอายุเพิ่มมากขึ้น เกิดการอพยพย้ายถิ่นฐาน ประชากรส่วนหนึ่งเกิดความหิวโหยในขณะที่ประชากรอีกส่วนมีปัญหาโรคอ���วน การเปลี่ยนแปลงเหล่านี้ ชาวมิลเลนเนียลจะทำอย่างไร การเปลี่ยนแปลงของประชากรส่งผลต่อสิ่งแวดล้อม และโรคภัยไข้เจ็บ ระบบสุขภาพ สิ่งเหล่านี้แสดงให้เราตระหนักถึงการเปลี่ยนแปลงของโลกในเวลาอันสั้น
สิ่งสำคัญ คือ การเชื่อมช่องว่างของคนแต่ละรุ่น ถ้าอยากสำเร็จในโลกที่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลา เราต้องมีมุมมองที่หลากหลายในสิ่งที่คุณกำลังทำอยู่ตอนนี้
สิ่งสำคัญ คือ การเชื่อมช่องว่างของคนแต่ละรุ่น ถ้าอยากสำเร็จในโลกที่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลา เราต้องมีมุมมองที่หลากหลายในสิ่งที่คุณกำลังทำอยู่ตอนนี้
March 25, 2021
Lots of broad themes discussed in this book (updated post-pandemic) including:
- Population Aging
- Rise of East Asian emerging markets
- Inequality
- Technology Adoption
Guillèn is clearly an optimist and provides encouragement and guidance on opportunities that will be available in the future. His concluding advice resonated the strongest: thinking laterally by connecting the dots (reminded me of Steve Jobs)!
- Population Aging
- Rise of East Asian emerging markets
- Inequality
- Technology Adoption
Guillèn is clearly an optimist and provides encouragement and guidance on opportunities that will be available in the future. His concluding advice resonated the strongest: thinking laterally by connecting the dots (reminded me of Steve Jobs)!
October 1, 2020
The book is very good overall, but there are parts (e.g. on nanotechnology and blockchain technology) that are absolutely mind blowing.
April 5, 2022
If you don't follow current affairs then this might be a good book to read. But the book has nothing which is not widely know in popular media.
September 8, 2020
While I was definitely interested in what the predictions were, I was most interested in how those predictions would be perceived in light of 2020's most obvious event, COVID-19. Most of what was examined in the book involved trends, and many trends worldwide are now being disrupted due to the global pandemic.
I wonder, will automations still be allowed such a significant place in the job market with so many now unemployed? As for the Airbnb's positive outlook, cities are now not allowing short-term rentals and similarly residents wouldn't want any risk of infections from tourists--though I could still see this change, much later.
For a layperson like me, the book was both illuminating and engaging, well-written with facts and numbers and narrations that showed the author's realistic optimism, which personally I found very inspiring.
Thank you to the publisher and Netgalley for providing me with an ebook version of the advanced reader copy.
I wonder, will automations still be allowed such a significant place in the job market with so many now unemployed? As for the Airbnb's positive outlook, cities are now not allowing short-term rentals and similarly residents wouldn't want any risk of infections from tourists--though I could still see this change, much later.
For a layperson like me, the book was both illuminating and engaging, well-written with facts and numbers and narrations that showed the author's realistic optimism, which personally I found very inspiring.
Thank you to the publisher and Netgalley for providing me with an ebook version of the advanced reader copy.
March 1, 2021
There are a lot of books on the market that attempt to talk about what the future will be like and what massive societal changes it will bring with it. “2030,” in many ways, is a lot like those other books.
Where it does switch things up, however, is with a cautiously optimistic view of the days and years ahead. That doesn’t mean it simply overlooks scary topics such as existential threats to humanity — instead, it lays them out pragmatically and suggests a “let’s figure it out attitude” to them. I really liked that aspect of this one.
There are definitely a few sections / chapters where the book goes on longer than I would’ve wanted it to. That makes me drop this rating down to four stars. But I still don’t think that takes away from the good writing and forecasting here. Especially because of its optimism, this one is certainly worth a read.
-Brian Sachetta
Author of “Get Out of Your Head”
Where it does switch things up, however, is with a cautiously optimistic view of the days and years ahead. That doesn’t mean it simply overlooks scary topics such as existential threats to humanity — instead, it lays them out pragmatically and suggests a “let’s figure it out attitude” to them. I really liked that aspect of this one.
There are definitely a few sections / chapters where the book goes on longer than I would’ve wanted it to. That makes me drop this rating down to four stars. But I still don’t think that takes away from the good writing and forecasting here. Especially because of its optimism, this one is certainly worth a read.
-Brian Sachetta
Author of “Get Out of Your Head”
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