ETH projections (updated 23 April 2022)

	B	C	D	E	F	G
1
2		scenarios
3		lean optimistic	best guess	lean conservative	unit	source
4	assumptions (at merge)
5	merge date	1 August 2022	15 August 2022	31 August 2022
6	ETH staked	14.0M	14.4M	14.8M	ETH	https://beaconcha.in/charts/staked_ether
7	average daily EVM fees (without Flashbots)	9.0K	7.0K	5.0K	ETH	https://etherscan.io/chart/transactionfee
8	average daily Flashbots bribes	450	375	300	ETH	https://dashboard.flashbots.net/miners
9	calculations (at merge)
10	max daily PoS issuance	1.70K	1.73K	1.75K	ETH
11	max yearly PoS issuance	622K	631K	640K	ETH
12	yearly fee rewards	.7M	.5M	.4M	ETH
13	staking APR (issuance only)	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%
14	staking APR (issuance + fees)	9.1%	8.0%	6.9%
15	peak supply	119.66M	119.96M	120.33M	ETH
16	assumptions (long-term)
17	ETH staked	30M	40M	50M	ETH
18	average daily EVM fees (without MEV bribes)	15K	10K	5K	ETH
19	average daily MEV out-of-band bribes	2.0K	1.5K	1.0K	ETH
20	calculations (long-term)
21	yearly fee burn	4.5M	3.0M	1.5M	ETH
22	max daily PoS issuance	4.0K	4.3K	4.3K	ETH
23	max yearly PoS issuance	911K	963K	963K	ETH
24	staking APR (issuance only)	3.0%	2.4%	1.9%
25	staking APR (issuance + fees)	8.8%	5.4%	3.3%
26	years until 100M ETH supply	5.5	9.8	38.2	years
27	net yearly sell pressure reduction	8.6M	7.0M	5.5M	ETH
28
29		parameter		value	unit
30		reference date		22 April 2022
31		supply at reference date		118,877,567	ETH	https://etherscan.io/chart/ethersupplygrowth
32		average daily PoW issuance		13,450	ETH/day	https://etherscan.io/chart/blockreward
33		burn since EIP-1559		2,153,002	ETH	https://ultrasound.money (observed 23 April 2022 at 18:52 UTC)
34		tips since EIP-1559		375,689	ETH	observed 23 April 2022 at 18:52 UTC
35		fee burn percentage (without Flashbots)		85%		calculated based on recent fee market data, not taking into account Flashbots
36		Flashbots bribes since EIP-1559		100,000	ETH	https://dashboard.flashbots.net/miners (approximate)
37		fee burn percentage (with Flashbots)		82%		calculated based on recent fee market data, taking into account Flashbots
38		PoW profit margin		5%		estimated
39		PoS profit margin		50%		estimated
40
41		constant		value	unit
42		SECONDS_PER_SLOT		12	seconds
43		SLOTS_PER_EPOCH		32	slots
44		EPOCHS_PER_DAY		225	epochs
45		DAYS_PER_YEAR		365.25	days
46		EPOCHS_PER_YEAR		82181.25	epochs
47		GWEI_PER_ETH		1000000000	Gwei
48		BASE_REWARD_FACTOR		64
49		see beacon chain spec here
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