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Mastering 'Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect

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From Joshua Angrist, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, and Jörn-Steffen Pischke, an accessible and fun guide to the essential tools of econometric researchApplied econometrics, known to aficionados as 'metrics, is the original data science. 'Metrics encompasses the statistical methods economists use to untangle cause and effect in human affairs. Through accessible discussion and with a dose of kung fu–themed humor, Mastering 'Metrics presents the essential tools of econometric research and demonstrates why econometrics is exciting and useful.The five most valuable econometric methods, or what the authors call the Furious Five--random assignment, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, and differences in differences--are illustrated through well-crafted real-world examples (vetted for awesomeness by Kung Fu Panda's Jade Palace). Does health insurance make you healthier? Randomized experiments provide answers. Are expensive private colleges and selective public high schools better than more pedestrian institutions? Regression analysis and a regression discontinuity design reveal the surprising truth. When private banks teeter, and depositors take their money and run, should central banks step in to save them? Differences-in-differences analysis of a Depression-era banking crisis offers a response. Could arresting O. J. Simpson have saved his ex-wife's life? Instrumental variables methods instruct law enforcement authorities in how best to respond to domestic abuse.Wielding econometric tools with skill and confidence, Mastering 'Metrics uses data and statistics to illuminate the path from cause to effect.

Shows why econometrics is importantExplains econometric research through humorous and accessible discussionOutlines empirical methods central to modern econometric practiceWorks through interesting and relevant real-world examples

293 pages, Kindle Edition

First published December 21, 2014

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Joshua D. Angrist

6 books20 followers

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5 stars
347 (46%)
4 stars
274 (36%)
3 stars
96 (12%)
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20 (2%)
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4 (<1%)
Displaying 1 - 30 of 60 reviews
Profile Image for JJ.
102 reviews
June 4, 2021
This book is a GODSEND. It succeeds in making econometrics, perhaps the driest subject in the world, loads of fun. With an entertaining style (and somewhat corny sense of humor), the book illustrates what the authors deem the "furious five" of econometrics -- randomized trials, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity design, and differences-in-differences -- through a series of fascinating case studies drawn from literature.

There's lots of math to be found in the book, but the authors gently walk the reader through each equation; I'd say little more than a basic knowledge of algebra is required (although some fluency with probability wouldn't hurt). The more gnarly statistical proofs seem to be left to their other more advanced book Mostly Harmless Econometrics. There are also a lot of really helpful and well-made figures and tables to make things clear. I'll probably be keeping this book near my desk at all times -- it really is an invaluable reference. I'm forever thankful that these LEGENDS of economics decided to write a dumb little book for undergraduates.
Profile Image for Adam.
103 reviews
June 28, 2020
Probably a 4.5. A solid and digestible explanation of 3 different econometric approaches. The language was understandable and clear while the examples provided a dynamism to each chapter. I still don’t understand things immediately through formulas, so coupling those with summaries at the end of each chapter was great.
Profile Image for Nicolette.
189 reviews34 followers
February 14, 2023
Building on my introductory data analysis course, some of this is review, but in the context of bridging the quantitative we learned last quarter and connecting it accurately and thoroughly to the qualitative policy analysis we've been working on this quarter, its utility is essential. Focusing on digging into policy studies, understanding and deconstructing statistical tables, and navigating the precise language to be used when discussing and explaining data, validity, and results to others. I worked off the Kindle edition which was extremely useful for highlights and saving notes, but considering picking up a physical copy to keep around since it's a relatively short book. Recommended for the process of breaking policy studies into digestible pieces and understanding how it all fits together, and how to communicate and discuss with others.
23 reviews
June 24, 2019
Very good exlanation of the problem of causal inference and ceteris paribus effects in applied economics. For a practical research it has to be supplemented with some standard econometrics textbook or at least with a description of methods in concrete software packages (Stata, R). Inspiring for further research and very useful source for teaching econometrics by real world examples from previous research.
Profile Image for Marissa Murray.
219 reviews3 followers
December 30, 2022
Haven’t taken stats since senior year of high school - this read like an in depth yet mildly engaging textbook on practical applications of experimentation and regression analysis in the real world (I only read the sections useful for work)
Profile Image for Jared Saxton.
10 reviews
April 21, 2022
A truly glorious text. When I picked this up I didn't expect that an econometrics book would make me laugh out loud. This book sets itself apart from other economics texts because it contains great explanations of interesting studies in an entertaining way. While the book caters to a rather niche audience, I appreciated the enthusiasm and humor the authors sprinkle throughout the pages to make the material accessible. We desperately need more books like these in economics.
Profile Image for Kirby McDonald.
161 reviews
December 11, 2023
5 stars for causal inference!
Honestly a great approach to econometrics with some fun academic humor along the way
Profile Image for Osama Iqbal Ahmed.
22 reviews2 followers
April 16, 2017
Terribly fun and informative econometrics. Developed an in-depth understanding of various approaches to Linear regression applications. Highly recommended for Stat nerds and math geeks ;)
211 reviews7 followers
August 26, 2018
When I build up the courage to tackle an academic and educational book, these are the types of books I look for. Incredibly insightful but also wonderfully personable. I feel like I'm having a conversation with a very knowledgeable fellow rather than being lectured and constantly reminded that I have a long way to go before I am an expert.

There are of course parts of this book that you will find dull. Consider noting those parts because that might signify your lack of personal interest in that area. Also, don't feel pressured to understand every little detail mentioned. Some are heavier than others. Lastly, don't be afraid of purchasing this book to keep as a resource. I've already used it a few times since reading.
Profile Image for Trey Malone.
171 reviews8 followers
November 15, 2016
I'm a fan of this method - take a few key points and explain them simply. I really like how Angrist and Pischke break down and discuss the topics covered (randomized trials, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, differences-in-differences). This book should be on the shelf of anyone interested in doing applied policy work who aren't math geniuses.
Profile Image for Dev.
1 review
October 1, 2015
Insightful and helpful in developing intuition for theorizing and building models and addressing selection bias. The Kung Fu references were just a bit irritating.
Profile Image for Clayton.
10 reviews3 followers
March 23, 2019
First, the content. Mastering 'Metrics does a pretty good job of covering the intuition (and some of the math) behind random assignment, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, and difference in differences. I think their treatment of these topics would be most useful to someone who was trying to read modern applied econometrics (or political science). Ideally the reader would have taken enough statistics that they can focus on trying to grasp the concept of potential outcomes rather than trying to work through the algebra. The methods that are covered are extremely important in social science and so having an idea of what they do and why we use them is helpful.

It leaves a lot to be desired, though. I'm honestly not sure who they think their primary audience is. The content is aimed primarily at an undergraduate level. Great! Undergrads deserve to be exposed to causal inference! But Mastering 'Metrics doesn't actually give you any of the tools you would need to *do* causal inference. There are a couple of vague references to statistical software (Stata) but the idea that a student would read this and then go off to perform DiD is laughable. There is nothing wrong with having an accessible primer on the intuition behind an idea, but if you're doing that you should probably be upfront about it and make recommendations on where to go from here. I suspect that the assumption is that the reader will next go pick up their other book "Mostly Harmless Econometrics" but that is never explicitly stated.

Personally I found the extended metaphor that econometrics is kung fu to be annoying. I think the authors believed that they were making the material more accessible by treating it less reverently, which I agree could have been an effective communication strategy, but I think it mostly fell flat. If I'm cringing at your puns I'm not learning about local average treatment effects. Moreover, I think the metaphor that econometrics is kung fu is actually harmful. Kung fu is mysterious and mystical. It's studied at the feet of a master over the course of a lifetime. The master might have you wash floors for a year, without offering a reason. There is definitely an art to econometrics, but clouding econometrics in mysticism does more to protect the reputation of the teacher than it does to advance the student's learning. Others may disagree but this grasshopper would have preferred we spend less time in the dojo and more time in the computer lab.

Which brings me to my final point. I believe that this book was written by economists who see data science expanding into areas that they consider to be economics and are uncomfortable with this development. The jacket blurb calls econometrics the "original data science" and argues that it's "exciting and useful." The people they asked to provide blurbs for the back include Hal Varian (of Google), and Andrew Gelman (of Bayesian and Stan fame). There's nothing wrong with aiming econometrics at data scientists, in fact I think there is a lot that they can and should learn from each other. The problem is that neither sees the other as particularly useful or intelligent and efforts at communication inevitably betray this bias.

Economists view data scientists as regression monkeys (probably the worst insult you can give someone in economics). When they look at data science they just see extremely elaborate efforts at curve fitting. Since economists don't think curve fitting is all that interesting or useful for doing economics, they scoff at neural networks and boosting. Imagine their horror when they see data science moving into their territory.

Data scientists, on the other hand, don't often think about economics at all. From their perspective the two disciplines have basically no overlap. So they struggle to see why they should care about what an economist has to say about anything. This is primarily driven by the popular misperception of economics being about business questions. Imagine their frustration when economists start telling them that their results are wrong.

The fact is that the two do have a lot to share with each other. But I've wasted enough of your time on this tangent so I'll save that for another time.
Profile Image for Matouš Fiala.
8 reviews
May 15, 2024
This book provides a great informal and practical overview of the strategies used to infer causality in modern economics research. It explains these strategies by breaking down landmark studies that use them. It also presents a clear picture of the statistical methods without delving deep into the maths. Overall, I found it a great complement to a more formal econometrics class. It is certainly not technical enough to teach you how to use the methods, but it is still a good and accessible starting point.

The book goes over:

Randomised Control Trials: e.g. medical trials - the researcher constructs two similar groups and assigns a treatment to one of them to assess its effect. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to conduct in most economic contexts.

Regression: This technique controls for possible confounders—e.g., more educated people earn more. However, children of richer parents are also more educated and earn more. To separate the effect of education on wages, we use regression to find the effect of education on two people with the same parental income. This is a fairly rudimentary technique that is used in every empirical research paper.

Instrumental variable: Imitating a randomised trial by finding a naturally occurring process that is similar to random assignment - e.g. Charter school attendees earn more than public school attendees. But, people who apply to charter schools are more motivated and might have been successful anyway. in some US states, overfilled schools choose applicants via lottery. This means that the only difference between successful and unsuccessful applicants is their luck in the draw, not their motivation. Therefore, the differences in earnings between the successful and unsuccessful applicants are only because of their schooling.

Regression discontinuity: Using arbitrary breaks to study causal effects—e.g., the only difference between people who are 17.95 years old and those who are 18.05 years old is that they can legally drink. This means that the difference between the two age groups should only reflect the effect of legal alcohol drinking.

Differences in differences: Comparing the treated group with the general trend - e.g. Israel liberalised after a wave of Russian Jew immigrants. But the whole region liberalised - was it the Russians or the trend? We look at the relative standing in the region - perhaps it was the 10. most liberalised country before, and now, it is the 2. most liberalised. This should reflect just the event we're studying.
Profile Image for Walter Ullon.
270 reviews129 followers
December 3, 2021
Alternate title: "Causal inference for the ambitious beginner".

While very readable and conversational in tone, it is still rather terse in some sections as if you're expected to already have seen most of the material here on a previous introductory course. I'd say you should look elsewhere if the finer points of regression and OLS are not fresh on your mind.

The material covered on causal inference is as follows: randomized trials, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity design, and differences-in-differences.

Of the above, I was only really familiar with the first two from undergrad. The presentation and exposition on the remaining three topics are very good but the authors seem to gloss over some detail for the sake of brevity which will make the text less than ideal for true beginners in econometrics.

Still, plenty useful and a reference to further excursions into the subject. Recommended!
Profile Image for Fabio Ismerim Ismerim.
123 reviews6 followers
June 8, 2023
Excelente.
Metric’s é como os atuantes na área chamam carinhosamente o campo de Econometria (Econometrics).

A grande maestria aqui é a forma de explicar. Os autores possuem uma didática excelente e conseguem inserir humor e leveza em assunto tao complexo. Os autores criaram personagens inspirados na série norte americana Kung Fu.

Não é um livro para iniciantes no assunto em causalidade, e recomendo que você tenha alguma noção de estatística básica. O livro é bem curto e aborda as principais ferramentas de econometria para inferência causal. Não há codigos aqui, apenas teoria com exemplos de dados e experimentos reais.
Um dos autores, Joshua (Nobel) possui um canal no youtube com o mesmo assunto e explica bem as ferramentas de inferência causal de uma forma bem lúdica. Veja alguns vídeos antes de adquirir o livro :)

Recomendo para quem atua com ciência de dados de uma forma geral.
December 1, 2021
A solid grounding in core econometrics techniques. I do hope that most of my time in my data career I can jump straight to the gold standard of randomized controlled tests, but sometimes that's not feasible, and this book offers a wealth of alternative solutions. I also appreciate the asides that provide historical context on the past masters who developed these techniques. I did occasionally find myself raising an eyebrow at nuances in the data that went unexplored, and there were a few explanations that could have been stated more clearly (thinking here of a section in chapter 6 that should have been nearly summed up as "don't violate the laws of (temporal) causality in your regression").
9 reviews
May 22, 2023
Good introductory book for an undergrad or early master's student. While it adequately covers core econometric concepts, I'm not convinced it effectively balances a textbook approach vs that of a "how-to" guide: it likely would have been better suited leaning a bit more in one direction or another.

Definitely fairly dense, and would best be accompanied by some examples you can work through. Wonderful companion to anyone working through an introductory Python or R course, as the technical implementations would complement this book's explanations well.
Profile Image for Nikhil.
22 reviews4 followers
July 9, 2016
The positives of this book are instantly revealed to those who are working on this topic, so for them I am not going to comment much. But to those who want to understand what most economists do these days and what are their methods - I think this book is a neat introduction.

It gives you circumstances where economists thrive with their data work and where they build fascinating analysis from interesting natural accidents. Have you ever imagined that Fred and George (the famous identical twins in Harry Potter) can be interesting test subjects to examine errors on returns to schooling estimates. Twins are used to examine schooling outcomes as they help keep ability fixed - identical twins are said to be similarly abled.

Or have you wondered why we have to measure weird things (data on quarter of births) to understand the impact of education. These and many other issues which are explored in this book actually bring out a glamorous aspect of the toils economists go through in examining an issue with the precision, care and concern - especially because policies are a result of these studies! It is thus an intersting starting place for beginners too! However, my expectations from this book were more - especially since I like the papers written by Angrist etc.

I started reading this book as a 'forced formula' in a standard Labor Economics course but never ended up reading the whole thing, until I decided to pick it up again. I did not expect the details of an econometrics course; but I thought as the book started out, it would have a funny take and make things interesting for the reader. Perhaps even reach out to non-economics students who just would want to venture out closer to the 'metrics way of research.

But I have to accept it! Economists are pretty bad at jokes and they aren't even slapstick funny! There is this disconnect with the jokes and the Kung Fu experience which is tried in the book. Though personally I like the Kung Fu Panda and I feel the idea was interesting and even well placed - its implementation did not flow through.

The chapters I feel are also imbalanced. Take for instance - Chapters on Regression, RDD are flowing smoothly, but the chapter on IV is tighter than the others. On the merit of how much does the book intend to give the reader the details on these things is another issue. But given a cursory exposition on this, I think IV overdoes it, whereas other chapters are more pointed and do not bring out unnecessary details.

There is also an effort at comparison of various techniques and lingering of the IV-2SLS; but I feel either the comparison should have flowed through the entire book, or should have been chapterized separately. In places where the story of a DD is flowing, an IV comparison takes one off guard in terms of now being able to apply and compare.

In terms of the chapters itself, I think they are very topical and will cover a lot of the modern research; the book pulls away from a fundamental issue - no matter what the methods are, the thought of comparison and counterfactuals is not emphasized enough I feel. Consider a standard econometrics textbook - say Wooldridge - it actually draws a framework where you know - no matter what the empirical problem is, you need to think in terms of identification, endogeneity and the underlying logic of counter-factuals. They certainly bring in a lot of that - where they talk about apples-to-apples comparison; but the emphasis is not approached as a general method of empirical analysis and the book can go far if that is emphasized. Thus in terms of binding the various methods - (a) a comparison and (b) a generalized empirical strategy might help get the econometrics logic through to a wider audience.

Another relevant factor with the book is that the passages do not lead you to read on - rather they are too academic! If the intention is for a wider audience and for a more diversified crowd, then the importance of leading readers onto the next issues is of supreme importance. For eg: they are discussing an issue and then the next issue comes up as a next section. There is no sense of direction as to why am I reading about an issue and where do the connections matter - in terms of comprehending the entire topic, the reader is left on his own.

Admitting that the academic way keeps the writing clean, but then it also makes the reader lose interest. The snippets are like the buzz generators - they are the interest makers - and this book could have gone a long long way in making 'Metrics fun!.



[Some notes while I was reading this book -

"So i have almost reached halfway chapter 4 where RDD is being discussed. I found the chapters imbalanced. Like the IV chapter was very heavy and was not a smoother flow like the other ones.

But the IV chapter was better in terms of the details whereas RDD chapter isn't as heavy on those details. So the detailing level has to be consistent. Further there is a need to link the discussions. Suddenly a topic is completed and another section starts with a new topic. This to me seems disconnected and you don't really get the flow in the argument while reading the book.

We don't want a book which gives us examples and then loses us in these examples. For examples should lead us to building of the concepts and continue our quest forward. "

]
Profile Image for Callan Corcoran.
171 reviews7 followers
June 20, 2020
This playful examination of core econometric concepts is an accessible and valuable tool for beginning econometricians. Though at times a touch dry, the authors strive to keep readers engaged. Explanations are clear, concise, and well-supported with examples, derivations, and references. A worthy introductory read.
Profile Image for Abhishek Anand.
41 reviews4 followers
October 26, 2020
Ohh how you wish more econometrics text to be like this. The book is concise and lucid and helps to apply some of these concepts into the work immediately. It is great that the author separate mathematical derivation and concept intuition, it really helps in understanding the concept. Hope to see many more books from him and kung fu masters (Mostly harmless econometrics already on the list)
September 2, 2021
Simple examples for understanding tools. Since reading it I have been using sentences as: Is your ceteris really paribus? On average, I think that... and similar. Quite funny how it helped me realize how misguided most statements tend to be. Really recommend it to everyone, even people not interested in econometrics.
10 reviews1 follower
February 7, 2023
Fun book! (As fun as econometrics can be when you know little to nothing about it)

Ignore this unless you want to learn how to understand statistics, economics, research/survey design, and generally how to read data that people refer to when they pontificate while making vague references to "research."
4 reviews
January 7, 2024
Great book for anybody interested in econometrics. I’ve always thought that understanding the underlying ideas of different regressions can help comprehend econometrics in a better way and these authors are great at doing it by providing lots of great examples throughout the book. It never felt like a text book to me.
311 reviews4 followers
November 2, 2017
If you are scared of math this is the best book on methods used in economics. Really easy read with drawings. The authors are engaging and show how to apply all of the techniques. Nice starter before moving on to Mostly Harmless Econometrics.
3 reviews5 followers
April 12, 2019
It is a very readable book with an amusing tone.
Introducing 5 powerful econometric tools, the book well explains how to build a valid counterfactual and intuitions behind regressions.
I highly recommend it for starters in econometrics.
Profile Image for Jakob Wilson.
58 reviews
February 29, 2020
This is the best book as a textbook that I have ever read for a class. The instructional quality is good, not quite great. But where it really stands out is making it personable, drawing you into the book and helping you engage in a learning process that is quite steep.
Profile Image for Rada Pavlova.
13 reviews13 followers
July 1, 2023
Very accessible introduction to metrics use and theory. Angrist is a Nobel laureate in Economics and I find it admirable when experts in the field care for producing work that is accessible to a broader audience as opposed to restricting knowledge to a narrow group of academically inclined people.
Profile Image for Rafael Ramirez.
125 reviews15 followers
November 5, 2017
Muy buen libro con aplicaciones prácticas de técnicas econométricas. Sencillo, claro y entretenido, asequible para cualquiera con una formación básica de probabilidad y estadística.
Profile Image for Anthony.
154 reviews
August 7, 2018
All your econometrics questions answered. Well, maybe not all your questions, but it gives a good overview of some topics that I never really understood clearly. I understand IV more clearly now.
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