What do you think?
Rate this book
344 pages, Paperback
First published July 5, 2005
- What experts think matters far less than how they think.The ultimate lesson is that it is better to think like a fox, to know a lot of facts and have an understanding of several possible scenarios and theories, use whatever tools are necessary to find out what you would like to find out, and accept some of the messy aspects of human behavior. It might just be that in some respects human behavior is irreducibly complex.
- [There are] few signs that expertise translates into greater ability to make either "well-calibrated" or "discriminating" forecasts.
- Foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs [meaning foxes are more likely to revise their beliefs in light of new evidence]
- Foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenariors