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Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser
This book will help you think more analytically. Doing so will enable you to better understand the world around you, to make smarter decisions, and to ultimately live a more fulfilling life. It draws on the maxims of Richard Zeckhauser, a legendary Harvard professor, who has helped hundreds of students and colleagues progress toward these goals. These maxims, one-sentence nuggets of wisdom that capture key principles for clear and effective thinking, are illustrated with practical examples from Richard’s colleagues and students. From these examples, you will learn how one colleague saved money on her wedding by thinking probabilistically, how Richard and his wife Sally made an agonizing health decision that significantly boosted Sally’s survival probabilities, and how the prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, used a maxim he learned from Richard 40 years ago to understand and deal with COVID-19 in his nation. This book provides vital insights for anyone who wants to think more effectively about the world. The author, Dan Levy, teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he has been a close faculty colleague and mentee of Richard Zeckhauser for more than 15 years.
211 pages, Kindle Edition
Published June 30, 2021
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August 30, 2021
"ريتشارد زيخوسر" أستاذ أكاديمي في هارفارد. له أقوال في عالم التفكير، يعلّمها كمبادئ لطلبته.
المؤلف اختار من تلك الأقوال العامة، ما رآه حكمًا تستحقّ الشرح، وضرب الأمثلة. وجمعها في كتابه هذا.
الأقوال جيدة وصادقة لكنّها ليست حكمًا فريدة! ولا يستحقّ جلّها الشرح والتوضيح والتمثيل. وللمؤلف أسلوب سخيف في التعريف بكلّ اسم يذكره، فيكتب أمام الاسم وصفًا مسهبًا عن وظيفة الشخص ودرجته الأكاديمية وعلاقته بـ"زيخوسر"!
الاطلاع على فهرس الكتاب يغني القارئ ويكفيه، والزيادات في الشروح قليلة النفع.
المؤلف اختار من تلك الأقوال العامة، ما رآه حكمًا تستحقّ الشرح، وضرب الأمثلة. وجمعها في كتابه هذا.
الأقوال جيدة وصادقة لكنّها ليست حكمًا فريدة! ولا يستحقّ جلّها الشرح والتوضيح والتمثيل. وللمؤلف أسلوب سخيف في التعريف بكلّ اسم يذكره، فيكتب أمام الاسم وصفًا مسهبًا عن وظيفة الشخص ودرجته الأكاديمية وعلاقته بـ"زيخوسر"!
الاطلاع على فهرس الكتاب يغني القارئ ويكفيه، والزيادات في الشروح قليلة النفع.
Currently reading
September 17, 2023Recommended by Nick Sleep, Charlie Munger & @mjmauboussin
https://twitter.com/mjmauboussin/stat...
Investing in UU (Unknown & Unknowable) 2006 is a tour de force
https://twitter.com/SanfordChee/statu...
Maxims for thinking straight:
*Pick an extreme case to clarify thinking - what if energy costs 0? Look at outliers. Consider the best & worst case from this going to extreme scenario.
*Occam’s razor; go to a simple case. Clarify thinking by going to extreme and/or simple cases. “Astute choices of technique is preferable to virtuoso but misguided computation.”
*Don’t take refuge in complexity. Appropriate simplification is the great art of modelling. Avoid black box algorithms w/o understanding underlying intuition. Is added complexity essential to solve the problem?
*Use analogies eg everyday examples. What’s the cost of experimentation? The larger the uncertainty w/ the same expected probability of success, the > you should try the new bucket. If you mistakenly conclude tt the old pdt is superior, & discard the new pdt for good, you’ll never learn > abt the new pdt. There’s no switching back. AMZN - Reversible vs irreversible decisions:
https://fs.blog/reversible-irreversib...
Think of optionality/real options: projects w/ >uncertain outcomes are likely to be >interesting & potentially higher impact eg crypto. Being the 1st person to explore Blue Ocean strategy is >interesting & potentially>rewarding vs combing over a well trodden, widely explored area.
Peter Thiel: competition is for losers
https://youtu.be/3Fx5Q8xGU8k
Maxims for tackling uncertainty:
*The world is >uncertain than you think
Black swan = highly improbable event with 3 principal characteristics: (1) it is unpredictable; (2) it carries a massive impact; and, (3) after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
"There are known knowns — there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns — that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” -Donald Rumsfeld
Einsenhower Phenomenon just because Einsenhower at age 24 had a minuscule chance of becoming President doesn’t make it likely that a better qualified candidate at age 24 will become the future President. 1/10k odds may be 10x better than 1/100k but it’s still highly unlikely.
Probabilities are known + state of the world is known = risk e.g. gambling
Probabilities are unknown + state of the world is known = uncertainty (i.e there is a negative state of the world but we don't know the probability distribution)
Probabilities are unknown + state of the world is unknown = ignorance/unknown unknowns (realm of Black Swans)
Bayesian probability: ask myself what information if it becomes known to me would cause me to update my prior probability? Prior Probability + New Info => update Posterior Probability
When updating probabilistic outcomes, use all available info that’s relevant including info fr the decisions of others. Put yourself in the shoes of those better informed especially if they have clear incentives. Why did they make the decisions they did? E.g. in the early days of COVID, why would the Chinese government who had > & better info than the RoW shutdown an important industrial centre like Wuhan & curfew millions of citizens if the risks were not severe? What should the actions & decisions of these better informed actors tell me?
Think probabilistically: instead of thinking what I can do to determine the outcome, think instead of what I can do to influence/improve the range outcomes.
*Status quo bias. Richard Thaler Nudge & framing of default options.
Maxims for decision making:
*Decision trees - what info gathering can help me better ascribe probabilities to expected outcomes? Coz good decisions can ‘ve bad outcomes if I’m unlucky.
https://twitter.com/mjmauboussin/stat...
Investing in UU (Unknown & Unknowable) 2006 is a tour de force
https://twitter.com/SanfordChee/statu...
Maxims for thinking straight:
*Pick an extreme case to clarify thinking - what if energy costs 0? Look at outliers. Consider the best & worst case from this going to extreme scenario.
*Occam’s razor; go to a simple case. Clarify thinking by going to extreme and/or simple cases. “Astute choices of technique is preferable to virtuoso but misguided computation.”
*Don’t take refuge in complexity. Appropriate simplification is the great art of modelling. Avoid black box algorithms w/o understanding underlying intuition. Is added complexity essential to solve the problem?
*Use analogies eg everyday examples. What’s the cost of experimentation? The larger the uncertainty w/ the same expected probability of success, the > you should try the new bucket. If you mistakenly conclude tt the old pdt is superior, & discard the new pdt for good, you’ll never learn > abt the new pdt. There’s no switching back. AMZN - Reversible vs irreversible decisions:
https://fs.blog/reversible-irreversib...
Think of optionality/real options: projects w/ >uncertain outcomes are likely to be >interesting & potentially higher impact eg crypto. Being the 1st person to explore Blue Ocean strategy is >interesting & potentially>rewarding vs combing over a well trodden, widely explored area.
Peter Thiel: competition is for losers
https://youtu.be/3Fx5Q8xGU8k
Maxims for tackling uncertainty:
*The world is >uncertain than you think
Black swan = highly improbable event with 3 principal characteristics: (1) it is unpredictable; (2) it carries a massive impact; and, (3) after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
"There are known knowns — there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns — that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” -Donald Rumsfeld
Einsenhower Phenomenon just because Einsenhower at age 24 had a minuscule chance of becoming President doesn’t make it likely that a better qualified candidate at age 24 will become the future President. 1/10k odds may be 10x better than 1/100k but it’s still highly unlikely.
Probabilities are known + state of the world is known = risk e.g. gambling
Probabilities are unknown + state of the world is known = uncertainty (i.e there is a negative state of the world but we don't know the probability distribution)
Probabilities are unknown + state of the world is unknown = ignorance/unknown unknowns (realm of Black Swans)
Bayesian probability: ask myself what information if it becomes known to me would cause me to update my prior probability? Prior Probability + New Info => update Posterior Probability
When updating probabilistic outcomes, use all available info that’s relevant including info fr the decisions of others. Put yourself in the shoes of those better informed especially if they have clear incentives. Why did they make the decisions they did? E.g. in the early days of COVID, why would the Chinese government who had > & better info than the RoW shutdown an important industrial centre like Wuhan & curfew millions of citizens if the risks were not severe? What should the actions & decisions of these better informed actors tell me?
Think probabilistically: instead of thinking what I can do to determine the outcome, think instead of what I can do to influence/improve the range outcomes.
*Status quo bias. Richard Thaler Nudge & framing of default options.
Maxims for decision making:
*Decision trees - what info gathering can help me better ascribe probabilities to expected outcomes? Coz good decisions can ‘ve bad outcomes if I’m unlucky.
August 18, 2021
Interesting maxims, briefly presented. I appreciate brevity and readers will find some relevant and actionable advice in this book. But I felt the writing unimaginative. It seems the author has fired off a questionnaire to a bunch former students and colleagues of Zeckhauser, and then pasted answers into the maxime text with the best or least bad fit. If Zeckhauser is such an inspirational figure, he deserves something more than a feedback survey collection of anecdotes to show it.
December 26, 2021
In this book, the author aims to share a variety of Maxims that were espoused and used by Richard Zeckhauser, a widly known and respected Economist at Harvard Kenedy School. The Maxims are much like Mental Models, but I would say even more basic than that - they form the tools by which we use and create Mental Models.
The author shares these, by providing a fairly brief discussion of each and how it is used, then sharing the stories of various of Richard's students, friends and colleagues. One of the other reviewers of this book complains that the author does not go deep enough into each of these, and in some repects this is a reasonable criticism. But there is enough here to make use of them, and if I get the sense of Richard well enough from this book, I suspect his attitude would be one of: You will get more value by going out and using it than you will by reading about it. There is enough in the descriptions and discussion to use these maxims, and while I agree that the book could be more engrosing, I would say it's definitely a worthwhile read.
The author shares these, by providing a fairly brief discussion of each and how it is used, then sharing the stories of various of Richard's students, friends and colleagues. One of the other reviewers of this book complains that the author does not go deep enough into each of these, and in some repects this is a reasonable criticism. But there is enough here to make use of them, and if I get the sense of Richard well enough from this book, I suspect his attitude would be one of: You will get more value by going out and using it than you will by reading about it. There is enough in the descriptions and discussion to use these maxims, and while I agree that the book could be more engrosing, I would say it's definitely a worthwhile read.
September 3, 2021
Nineteen maxims about how to make better decisions. A tribute from students and colleagues of professor Richard Zeckhauser. This is another one of those books that makes you wonder why we don't teach these skills earlier in the education process. Thanks to Mario (another student of Zeckhauser) for the recommendation.
March 19, 2022
Awesome framework for thinking Analytically.
Good collection of Maxims. Good examples of how each one is implemented. Might be little hard to read. I did it in 3 days splitting it into three 2 hour reading sessions, reading light in the sections that had more than one example. As an additional advantage you get to people from various fields.
Good collection of Maxims. Good examples of how each one is implemented. Might be little hard to read. I did it in 3 days splitting it into three 2 hour reading sessions, reading light in the sections that had more than one example. As an additional advantage you get to people from various fields.
February 24, 2023
Nothing new if you have been looking at mental models for quite some time
March 6, 2024
Legend of a man.
October 27, 2021
Book about rational thinking and decision making by disciples of Harvard professor Richard Zeckhauser. Nothing really surprising, but practical and easy to use in real life by everyone, not only policymakers
October 23, 2022
Overall, it is a decent book. My takeaway from the book is that the author wants readers to cultivate a habit of formulating and applying problem-solving frameworks as an integral part of their daily life. The five chapters of the book - Thinking Straight ("going to the extreme"), Thinking Uncertainty ("subjective probabilistic decision-making"), Making Decisions Understanding Policy ("long division cost-benefit analysis"), and Living Fully ("strive hard for the best") - provide readers some interesting 'maxims' for approaching different problems. Personally, I find the first maxim, i.e. "going to the extreme", most useful as policy researcher. It helps me to ground my thinking in reality, by checking its best and worst outcomes for my policy suggestions.
Whether you are working in policymaking or a reader looking to improve your analytical skills, I will strongly recommend this book to you.
Whether you are working in policymaking or a reader looking to improve your analytical skills, I will strongly recommend this book to you.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
July 1, 2022
I loved all the maxims! And the beautiful examples used to explain them. This book is relevant to professional life as well as personal life. Helps make the right choices in life and to be happy with them. I have listed a few of them below-
1. Make a problem as simple as possible by thinking about the worst-case scenarios.
2. Always try to make good decisions (which does not mean good outcomes), decisions made methodically, and not regret their outcomes.
3. Always weigh the errors of your actions the same as the errors of your inactions (this one is really hard but important, we should take into account the opportunity cost of every decision we make)
4. Metrics to take into account while making decisions - long division (marginal benefit), elasticity (change in one quantity associated with a change in another quantity)
1. Make a problem as simple as possible by thinking about the worst-case scenarios.
2. Always try to make good decisions (which does not mean good outcomes), decisions made methodically, and not regret their outcomes.
3. Always weigh the errors of your actions the same as the errors of your inactions (this one is really hard but important, we should take into account the opportunity cost of every decision we make)
4. Metrics to take into account while making decisions - long division (marginal benefit), elasticity (change in one quantity associated with a change in another quantity)
October 3, 2021
My biggest question is why only Harvard students and why not kids from middle to high school be introduced to these maxims? This book very simplistically presents some great maxims taught or covered by Richard Zeckhauser as part of his course on 'Analytic Frameworks for Policy'. As the author says introducing the book, the purpose of this book or maxims is to help readers develop a more analytical mindset and bring in more clarity. This is exactly what is required not only in the grown-up world but also in the growing-up world. Highly recommend that education boards introduce part of these maxims in schools or at least make this book available as a high recommend in school and college libraries. Happy reading.
March 9, 2022
I very much appreciated the lessons taught in this book, although I couldn't help but snicker at the absolute praise professor Richard Zeckhauser gets in this book I'm sure he's a great man and I would genuinely love to meet him, but there are North Korean tracts about the Kims that are more subtle in their praise.
If you need a boost in critical thinking, pick it up. If you've studied critical thinking for awhile, a lot of this might not be too new to you, but still a useful handbook to reference.
If you need a boost in critical thinking, pick it up. If you've studied critical thinking for awhile, a lot of this might not be too new to you, but still a useful handbook to reference.
August 7, 2022
Richard was a beloved mentor of mine in grad school and I was pleased to receive this book as a gift from a friend. Unfortunately I didn’t think this was written very well (sorry, Dan Levy!). The wisdom of Richard’s maxims get lost in the many not very pithy anecdotes from others, and the examples used are not super illustrative. I suppose no book will be able to do justice to Richard’s iconic Analytic Frameworks for Policy course. This read was done in small doses over time as a nice nostalgic jaunt for me.
November 27, 2021
Very basic, I had expected considerably more. There are some nice examples but the maxims themselves are very much statements of the obvious and do not add much beyond a very fundamental understanding of analytical thinking. The book reads as a homage to Professor Zeckhauser, he is name dropped 18-times in the first maxim alone and this was a little distracting, but perhaps I am being overly critical.
November 7, 2022
Analyze my Thinking
This is a book for everyone。 It broadened my perspective of how to make decisions，and realize that there are some things which we need to look at from a different point of view。 In other words，think outside of the box.
I apprecate the work that Dan Levy，not the actor from，“Shits Creek”， compiled from various individuals who knew Dr.RicardZeckhauser。 These maximums give us valuable tools for all people when making decisions in life.
This is a book for everyone。 It broadened my perspective of how to make decisions，and realize that there are some things which we need to look at from a different point of view。 In other words，think outside of the box.
I apprecate the work that Dan Levy，not the actor from，“Shits Creek”， compiled from various individuals who knew Dr.RicardZeckhauser。 These maximums give us valuable tools for all people when making decisions in life.
July 26, 2021
Excellent insights and anecdotes about an extremely accomplished mutli-disciplinary mind. Regardless of your field, you would do well to read through this to improve both your personal and professional decision making.
August 14, 2021
A must read for decisions makers
Maxims are expressed with conciseness and grace. Useful examples and a broad examples from the Harvard Kennedy School community. Better to think how to make decisions than nudge people what to do best…
Maxims are expressed with conciseness and grace. Useful examples and a broad examples from the Harvard Kennedy School community. Better to think how to make decisions than nudge people what to do best…
December 12, 2021
While some of the maxims may seem obvious, it's not so obvious how Zeckhauser approaches them and how is students utilized them. It's a short book, relatively speaking, but it will remain with you for a long time.
December 27, 2021
Of the 19 maxims being discussed, I found the maxims on decision making pretty interesting. Overall it is a decent read. But I did feel that there is a reasonable degree of overlap between quite a few maxims.
March 21, 2022
I had picked up several of these maxims in working with economists over the years and watching them think through issues. If I could consistently use even just half of these, I'm sure my life would be better. There are a few exercises at the end to help you get started internalizing them.
May 3, 2022
Nothing much here for the folks initiated into the ways of mental models and cognitive biases. Besides to breadth, there is a great lack of depth in the discussion as well.
Good enough for beginners.
Good enough for beginners.
August 16, 2022
These maxims will not help you thinking analytically. In fact these are closer to heuristics, the antithesis for analytic mind. The author seems to see Richard Zeckhauser as larger than life intellectuals. But seeing these maxims (or heuristic), I don't see the point why. Halo bias?
October 5, 2022
It's a good book, but not for me
If you are new to analytical thinking, this book will be extremely valuable. However, working as an engineer for many years, I was already familiar with the gist of most of these ideas from past experience.
If you are new to analytical thinking, this book will be extremely valuable. However, working as an engineer for many years, I was already familiar with the gist of most of these ideas from past experience.
November 4, 2022
A heart-warming collection of reflections from colleagues of Richard Zeckhauser. Clearly Dr. Zeckhauser is a luminary in policy and decision theory. This book read like it could have been privately published / a birthday or retirement tribute.
February 24, 2024
Short and simple book about challenging your thought patterns, changing perspective to be more evidence based and concious of probabilities. Not a bad read, has great rules of thumb, and made me more interested in Richars Zeckhauser.
September 12, 2021
good wisdoms
This is a great collection of wisdoms with examples. They are concise enough to be remembered therefore, practiced.
Thanks to the author for pulling them together.
This is a great collection of wisdoms with examples. They are concise enough to be remembered therefore, practiced.
Thanks to the author for pulling them together.
Shelved as 'unfinished'
December 19, 2021A little too much academia, a lot of the examples are from academia so not so relatable for me
January 26, 2022
Clear and simple. I loved it. Practical and useful
February 5, 2022
This was fun, not super enlightening. Quick and enjoyable but nothing earth-shattering, as the prelude insinuates.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 40 reviews