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The DAO of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World
As today's preeminent doomsday investor Mark Spitznagel describes his Daoist and roundabout investment approach, "one gains by losing and loses by gaining." This is Austrian Investing, an archetypal, counterintuitive, and proven approach, gleaned from the 150-year-old Austrian School of economics, that is both timeless and exceedingly timely.In The Dao of Capital, hedge fund manager and tail-hedging pioneer Mark Spitznagel--with one of the top returns on capital of the financial crisis, as well as over a career--takes us on a gripping, circuitous journey from the Chicago trading pits, over the coniferous boreal forests and canonical strategists from Warring States China to Napoleonic Europe to burgeoning industrial America, to the great economic thinkers of late 19th century Austria. We arrive at his central investment methodology of Austrian Investing, where victory comes not from waging the immediate decisive battle, but rather from the roundabout approach of seeking the intermediate positional advantage (what he calls shi), of aiming at the indirect means rather than directly at the ends. The monumental challenge is in seeing time differently, in a whole new intertemporal dimension, one that is so contrary to our wiring.Spitznagel is the first to condense the theories of Ludwig von Mises and his Austrian School of economics into a cohesive and--as Spitznagel has shown--highly effective investment methodology. From identifying the monetary distortions and non-randomness of stock market routs (Spitznagel's bread and butter) to scorned highly-productive assets, in Ron Paul's words from the foreword, Spitznagel "brings Austrian economics from the ivory tower to the investment portfolio."The Dao of Capital provides a rare and accessible look through the lens of one of today's great investors to discover a profound harmony with the market process--a harmony that is so essential today.
368 pages, Kindle Edition
First published August 16, 2013
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 129 reviews
September 14, 2014
Spitznagel is a brilliant investor, but no writer. He is no Taleb. Give your portfolio to Spitznagel read Taleb.
The amount of repetition in this book is absolutely ridiculous. I guess he was hammering in the "roundabout"? This book could have been 20 pages. The only reason I made it to the end is his investment results have been so good I wanted some nuggets. Alas, they are not new or they are not here.
The amount of repetition in this book is absolutely ridiculous. I guess he was hammering in the "roundabout"? This book could have been 20 pages. The only reason I made it to the end is his investment results have been so good I wanted some nuggets. Alas, they are not new or they are not here.
April 6, 2016
Oh boy, this is something.
Taleb's buddy writes a book about his trading strategy. Then he prepends with 300 pages about boreal forests, Daoism, 19. century military philosophy and bios of the fathers of Austrian economics.
Pretentious, stuffy, comically using German or Chinese words where totally suitable english equivalents exist. Just so that you know that he is not only a street smart trader, but also an intellectual par excellence.
And you can't even criticize it: the book is about being roundouboutness, so of course we can't jump to tail hedging before for dozens pages discussing the biology of pine cones. Of course!
Surely you had a professor that takes ages explaining in full excruciating detail something trivial and within a single sentence can get you totally lost in something absolutely incomprehensible.
This is 100% laziness and Spitznagel does it a couple of times. My favourite moment is when after a long boring passage he starts talking about out-of-money put options, backtracks "oh for those who never heard about option here is a one sentence explanation" and immediately follows along lines "so you need to get a put option which is about 40% out-of-money at 30% implied volatility... yada yada ... vega profits".
So lazy (or he really, really wants to impress you), it was incredibly funny.
And despite this I really liked it and was mostly entertained. 4 start, I don't know why!
Taleb's buddy writes a book about his trading strategy. Then he prepends with 300 pages about boreal forests, Daoism, 19. century military philosophy and bios of the fathers of Austrian economics.
Pretentious, stuffy, comically using German or Chinese words where totally suitable english equivalents exist. Just so that you know that he is not only a street smart trader, but also an intellectual par excellence.
And you can't even criticize it: the book is about being roundouboutness, so of course we can't jump to tail hedging before for dozens pages discussing the biology of pine cones. Of course!
Surely you had a professor that takes ages explaining in full excruciating detail something trivial and within a single sentence can get you totally lost in something absolutely incomprehensible.
This is 100% laziness and Spitznagel does it a couple of times. My favourite moment is when after a long boring passage he starts talking about out-of-money put options, backtracks "oh for those who never heard about option here is a one sentence explanation" and immediately follows along lines "so you need to get a put option which is about 40% out-of-money at 30% implied volatility... yada yada ... vega profits".
So lazy (or he really, really wants to impress you), it was incredibly funny.
And despite this I really liked it and was mostly entertained. 4 start, I don't know why!
May 12, 2018
Nobody would question Mark Spitznagel's skill as an investor, particularly in the tail-hedging field, which has made him billions. When it comes to writing, he is probably still on the long roundabout path. The book is, to some extent, difficult to read and quite repetitive. In the beginning, I wanted to throw it out, but it succeeded keeping me curious right to the end.
When a person who's done the thing by himself generously shares his experiences and philosophy, even in his own unpolished language, as opposed to a journalist’s digestive about someone else (that said, some are good), I am willing to tolerate even a quite tedious style of writing. When it comes to this kind of work, it is the contents what matters the most.
The book is highly philosophical. It is based on a lot of metaphors. They are Eastern, Western, from nature, from different heroes, artists, wars, industries, etc. The reader must remember and systematically follow the logic of all those metaphors to be able to understand the overall philosophy with all its angles. Sometimes it requires rereading. The book is not practical at all. It is not meant as a digested strategy to adopt for investing straight away, but rather as an introduction to Austrian approach and way of thinking when it comes to investment strategies.
The central idea of Austrian philosophy elaborated and presented by Spitznagel is the concept of the roundabout. The author discusses different approaches for positioning, which in many respects is counterintuitive, and therefore so hard to implement. This book is a pure encouragement for the contrarians. There are examples from many successful cases presented. The book is a great introduction to Austrian approach and an excellent overview of major great thinkers of the early Austrian school of Economics.
When a person who's done the thing by himself generously shares his experiences and philosophy, even in his own unpolished language, as opposed to a journalist’s digestive about someone else (that said, some are good), I am willing to tolerate even a quite tedious style of writing. When it comes to this kind of work, it is the contents what matters the most.
The book is highly philosophical. It is based on a lot of metaphors. They are Eastern, Western, from nature, from different heroes, artists, wars, industries, etc. The reader must remember and systematically follow the logic of all those metaphors to be able to understand the overall philosophy with all its angles. Sometimes it requires rereading. The book is not practical at all. It is not meant as a digested strategy to adopt for investing straight away, but rather as an introduction to Austrian approach and way of thinking when it comes to investment strategies.
The central idea of Austrian philosophy elaborated and presented by Spitznagel is the concept of the roundabout. The author discusses different approaches for positioning, which in many respects is counterintuitive, and therefore so hard to implement. This book is a pure encouragement for the contrarians. There are examples from many successful cases presented. The book is a great introduction to Austrian approach and an excellent overview of major great thinkers of the early Austrian school of Economics.
August 21, 2018
This Book is not like anyone you have read before. Mark Spitznagel builds a mosaic of philosophy, history, economics, military strategy, psychology and more to end up with a loose framework for equity investing that could serve as a practical sequel to Nassim N. Taleb’s Antifragile. Indeed, the closest peer to The Dao of Capital is probably Taleb’s bestseller The Black Swan. Taleb who is a friend and former colleague to the author is one of those endorsing the book – as is amongst others Paul Tudor Jones III, Steve Forbes, Victor Niederhoffer, Byron Wien and Marc Faber, while Ron Paul has written the foreword! This raises expectations to a very high level.
Spitznagel who during the daytime manages an investment advisory specializing in “Black Swan- investing or equity tail-hedging and who previously has been both a commodities pit trader and the head of prop trading at Morgan Stanley, has written a book with three quite different sections. The first is an exposé of a number of phenomena and theories that all point to the value of a roundabout strategy. With examples from forestry, Daoism, commodities trading, Chinese games and martial arts and the military strategies of Sun Wu (Art of War) plus Carl von Clausewitz (On War) the author tries to show the advantage of looking and planning several steps ahead and of making initial small sacrifices to reach a good vantage point for later larger gains.
The next journey the reader is taken on is a mixture of the history of the portal figures of Austrian Economics, the foundation of this branch of economics itself and a number of – sometimes somewhat loose - ties between Austrian economics and contemporary findings in behavioural finance, corporate finance etc. All with the purpose of pointing to the investment time arbitrage that is created by the fact that the business cycle is so poorly understood outside of Austrian economics. The Austrians view the violent swings in the business cycle as driven by monetary distortions – primarily those of the Central banks. The view is similar to those of for example Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio or the late Hyman Minsksy. However, where Minsky saw the credit expansions and contractions - and the booms and busts that follow - as something inherent in the market economy itself, the Austrians view them as external manipulation.
Personally I am attracted to the fact that Austrian economics is adaptive, entrepreneurial and recognize credit cycles and economic changes as compared to the traditional static, non-monetary equilibrium theories of economics. Yes, it’s also less mathematically stringent, but in my book this only validates it as I don’t believe in “general theories” when it comes to social sciences.
The last two chapters formulate a theory of Austrian investing built on the building blocks of the roundabout, the better vantage point for later larger gains and the understanding of the business cycle. The investment strategies are not too complicated. In broad terms the advice is to build an equity portfolio using a type of Greenblatt’s Magic Formula and when the entire market is expensive with regards to a version of Tobin’s Q you should use a fraction of the money to buy deep out of the money S&P puts.
I would say that the target audience for this book is the sadly too small group of intellectual investors, i.e. the academically minded practitioner among the many practically minded craftsmen. If you get allergic rashes from an author who likes to excel in knowing the right terminology in Greek, German, Mandarin and even Finnish and who at times displays a hit of superiority over being among the chosen ones who have understood the supremacy of Austrian Economics and tries to explain this genre with examples that seam to be taken out of a Wagner opera and a vocabulary from political philosophy, then stay clear of this book.
As long as you understand what you are getting into when reading this unusual book it is however quite rewarding.
Spitznagel who during the daytime manages an investment advisory specializing in “Black Swan- investing or equity tail-hedging and who previously has been both a commodities pit trader and the head of prop trading at Morgan Stanley, has written a book with three quite different sections. The first is an exposé of a number of phenomena and theories that all point to the value of a roundabout strategy. With examples from forestry, Daoism, commodities trading, Chinese games and martial arts and the military strategies of Sun Wu (Art of War) plus Carl von Clausewitz (On War) the author tries to show the advantage of looking and planning several steps ahead and of making initial small sacrifices to reach a good vantage point for later larger gains.
The next journey the reader is taken on is a mixture of the history of the portal figures of Austrian Economics, the foundation of this branch of economics itself and a number of – sometimes somewhat loose - ties between Austrian economics and contemporary findings in behavioural finance, corporate finance etc. All with the purpose of pointing to the investment time arbitrage that is created by the fact that the business cycle is so poorly understood outside of Austrian economics. The Austrians view the violent swings in the business cycle as driven by monetary distortions – primarily those of the Central banks. The view is similar to those of for example Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio or the late Hyman Minsksy. However, where Minsky saw the credit expansions and contractions - and the booms and busts that follow - as something inherent in the market economy itself, the Austrians view them as external manipulation.
Personally I am attracted to the fact that Austrian economics is adaptive, entrepreneurial and recognize credit cycles and economic changes as compared to the traditional static, non-monetary equilibrium theories of economics. Yes, it’s also less mathematically stringent, but in my book this only validates it as I don’t believe in “general theories” when it comes to social sciences.
The last two chapters formulate a theory of Austrian investing built on the building blocks of the roundabout, the better vantage point for later larger gains and the understanding of the business cycle. The investment strategies are not too complicated. In broad terms the advice is to build an equity portfolio using a type of Greenblatt’s Magic Formula and when the entire market is expensive with regards to a version of Tobin’s Q you should use a fraction of the money to buy deep out of the money S&P puts.
I would say that the target audience for this book is the sadly too small group of intellectual investors, i.e. the academically minded practitioner among the many practically minded craftsmen. If you get allergic rashes from an author who likes to excel in knowing the right terminology in Greek, German, Mandarin and even Finnish and who at times displays a hit of superiority over being among the chosen ones who have understood the supremacy of Austrian Economics and tries to explain this genre with examples that seam to be taken out of a Wagner opera and a vocabulary from political philosophy, then stay clear of this book.
As long as you understand what you are getting into when reading this unusual book it is however quite rewarding.
February 7, 2017
If someone ran a smart compression algorithm on this book, the output would be a book with about 150 pages. Spitznagel takes the 'round-about way' literally, explaining the same thing from Chapter 1 to 9 (that's where I stopped reading after realizing I'm not going to get anything new out of the last chapter), in round-about ways. Succinctness is not a quality of this book.
It's not that the book has nothing to learn from. Even though the lessons in botany, military strategy, Daoism, etc. were partially enlightening, one can't help wonder if closer analogies could have been made to explain the central, and perhaps the only, tenet of the book. And that perhaps, using one or two examples, could have done the trick instead of dedicating one entire chapter explaining the lives of coniferous trees.
I understand the knowledge Spitznagel might have accumulated over the years is vast, however, pouring all of it into a jumbled book that confuses the readers, might not be the best way to impart it.
It seems like this was a systemic failure all the way from writing the outline to final edit of the book. No one across the board seemed to figure out that the book could have been better off as a blog post or perhaps even a whitepaper.
One might tend to believe they are stupid by reading this book. Positing that it might be one of those artworks, movies or literary gems, that are just beyond the common person's understanding. Well, let me tell you (if you did not understand the book in its entirety), you are not stupid. The book is just badly written.
It's not that the book has nothing to learn from. Even though the lessons in botany, military strategy, Daoism, etc. were partially enlightening, one can't help wonder if closer analogies could have been made to explain the central, and perhaps the only, tenet of the book. And that perhaps, using one or two examples, could have done the trick instead of dedicating one entire chapter explaining the lives of coniferous trees.
I understand the knowledge Spitznagel might have accumulated over the years is vast, however, pouring all of it into a jumbled book that confuses the readers, might not be the best way to impart it.
It seems like this was a systemic failure all the way from writing the outline to final edit of the book. No one across the board seemed to figure out that the book could have been better off as a blog post or perhaps even a whitepaper.
One might tend to believe they are stupid by reading this book. Positing that it might be one of those artworks, movies or literary gems, that are just beyond the common person's understanding. Well, let me tell you (if you did not understand the book in its entirety), you are not stupid. The book is just badly written.
July 30, 2014
I greatly appreciated the message of the book and I agree with Mr. Spitznagel's most important investment premise: There are overwhelming biases to the short-term and to direct results in investing; those who are disciplined to invest with a long time horizon and in a "roundabout" manner will be rewarded with improved results. However, be prepared! The book is highly redundant. If the book was half its length, the message delivery would be twice as powerful. I think Mr. Spitznagel is brilliant. But I don't like the writing style. He drones on and on with a relentless series of highly detailed illustrations. He does not even discuss his Austrian investing methods until the final two chapters (and only briefly at that). I truly appreciate the need to explain the theoretical underpinnings of the Austrian investing style, but it was much too long.
January 11, 2015
The central argument of this book is quite solid. (Namely, that by hedging investment risks when the market looks overvalued and then reinvesting the earnings in periods where the market is undervalued one stands to gain a lot.) Unfortunately, the author has wrapped this thesis in his own bastardized philosophy drawing from Daoism and Austrian economics and drawn it out to 290 pages, which is entirely unnecessary for such a simple premise.
So while I found the book worthwhile for its main idea, I can't bring myself to rate it highly due to its over-complication of what is essentially a very simple concept.
Now, the argument the author would probably make in response is that this principle, something he calls the "roundabout", is applicable far beyond investing, which is why he spent so much time on it. This is a fair argument. Nonetheless, the quality of writing leaves much to be desired and as such it is still deserving of the two stars that I gave it.
So while I found the book worthwhile for its main idea, I can't bring myself to rate it highly due to its over-complication of what is essentially a very simple concept.
Now, the argument the author would probably make in response is that this principle, something he calls the "roundabout", is applicable far beyond investing, which is why he spent so much time on it. This is a fair argument. Nonetheless, the quality of writing leaves much to be desired and as such it is still deserving of the two stars that I gave it.
September 28, 2013
Much longer than it needed to be. Far too heavy usage of parantheses to remind you of the analogies used on every page just in case you forgot.
August 26, 2021
Ancient Chinese Philosophy + Austrian School of Economics + Investing = HODL!!!
November 10, 2014
I had high hopes for this book, but it is clear that in many ways it is a dud.
Spitznagel wrote a roundabout book about roundabout or indirect investment strategy. But rather than spending most of the time discussing how you might apply this strategy in practical application to investing, he gives lots of historical accounts and development of roundabout strategies (in non-investing contexts) and Austrian economics. In my opinion, this is mostly fluff. This book jumps from short biography to short biography. I wish there was more depth and less jumping around to relevant history. In sum, you can probably skip most of the first 1/2 of the book and many sections of the latter half. As if the fluff weren't enough, his historical accounts read more like a Wikipedia articles than a history of ideas book by someone like Daniel Borstin who really engages the ideas and teases out the nuances.
I guess he means to trace lineage of his ideas, but I wonder if he does that to bolster his argument for the success of roundabout strategies.
In the end, this book was quite disappointing. Skip to the last chapters to get the essence.
Spitznagel wrote a roundabout book about roundabout or indirect investment strategy. But rather than spending most of the time discussing how you might apply this strategy in practical application to investing, he gives lots of historical accounts and development of roundabout strategies (in non-investing contexts) and Austrian economics. In my opinion, this is mostly fluff. This book jumps from short biography to short biography. I wish there was more depth and less jumping around to relevant history. In sum, you can probably skip most of the first 1/2 of the book and many sections of the latter half. As if the fluff weren't enough, his historical accounts read more like a Wikipedia articles than a history of ideas book by someone like Daniel Borstin who really engages the ideas and teases out the nuances.
I guess he means to trace lineage of his ideas, but I wonder if he does that to bolster his argument for the success of roundabout strategies.
In the end, this book was quite disappointing. Skip to the last chapters to get the essence.
April 5, 2020
The book is extremely boring and insanely repetitive making reading it an exhausting process. If it was reduced by 50% it would have been much better. Expect around one hundred pages about different analogies and allegories that tries to prove the benefits of delayed gratification and strategic positioning. However, it has highly valuable investing information specially chapter nine and ten (Austrian investing I & Austrian Investing II)
CH.9 Austrian investing I:
This chapter discusses investing in the market as a whole from a macro perspective. The writer offers an interesting allegory for the market's boom and bust cycles. Spitznagel compares the market to a forest where small fires happen regularly to control the spread of dry weeds and contribute to the health of the forest and limit the chances of future large fires. If the government intervenes with fire suppression techniques this will limit small fires from happening and open the door for large fires in the future that the government won't be able to control. Government fire suppression is an imaginary for governments' lowering interest and bailouts. This intervention results in inflated equity prices and a future large bust. the inflation of equity prices could be viewed in the MS index or Tobin's Q ratio (Market Cap/ Market book value) if it exceeds 1 and the fed's interests are low, the author proposes a tail hedged portfolio with 99.5% invested in S&P index and 0.5% invested in 2 months 0.5 delta puts (Put Options) on the S&P index that are 30% below the current underlying price. This hedge will allow the portfolio to be profitable in the long term with the upsides and the downsides. He provides a graph that compares this portfolio with the S&P
CH.10 Austrian investing II:
This strategy is for investing in companies instead of markets. Basically you invest in companies with high ROIC (Above 100% consistent for more than a decade) and low Faustmann ratio (Price/Book Value). This seems to be a mix of growth and value investing. He attributes this method to Eugen Bohm Von Bawerk. He compares this method in a portfolio simulation from 1978 to 2013 with different approaches and it beats all of them and it beats the market too.
Here are my favorite quotes
“The great artists and entrepreneurs (and economists) have well understood that anything worth doing takes time.”
“There is another component to the difference between the workers and the entrepreneurs: that is the notion of risk. (Chapter five provides interesting criticisms to the labor theory of value).”
“If I am able to get my children to read one economics text in their lifetime, god forbid, it would be the Hazlitt’s (Economics in One Lesson).”
CH.9 Austrian investing I:
This chapter discusses investing in the market as a whole from a macro perspective. The writer offers an interesting allegory for the market's boom and bust cycles. Spitznagel compares the market to a forest where small fires happen regularly to control the spread of dry weeds and contribute to the health of the forest and limit the chances of future large fires. If the government intervenes with fire suppression techniques this will limit small fires from happening and open the door for large fires in the future that the government won't be able to control. Government fire suppression is an imaginary for governments' lowering interest and bailouts. This intervention results in inflated equity prices and a future large bust. the inflation of equity prices could be viewed in the MS index or Tobin's Q ratio (Market Cap/ Market book value) if it exceeds 1 and the fed's interests are low, the author proposes a tail hedged portfolio with 99.5% invested in S&P index and 0.5% invested in 2 months 0.5 delta puts (Put Options) on the S&P index that are 30% below the current underlying price. This hedge will allow the portfolio to be profitable in the long term with the upsides and the downsides. He provides a graph that compares this portfolio with the S&P
CH.10 Austrian investing II:
This strategy is for investing in companies instead of markets. Basically you invest in companies with high ROIC (Above 100% consistent for more than a decade) and low Faustmann ratio (Price/Book Value). This seems to be a mix of growth and value investing. He attributes this method to Eugen Bohm Von Bawerk. He compares this method in a portfolio simulation from 1978 to 2013 with different approaches and it beats all of them and it beats the market too.
Here are my favorite quotes
“The great artists and entrepreneurs (and economists) have well understood that anything worth doing takes time.”
“There is another component to the difference between the workers and the entrepreneurs: that is the notion of risk. (Chapter five provides interesting criticisms to the labor theory of value).”
“If I am able to get my children to read one economics text in their lifetime, god forbid, it would be the Hazlitt’s (Economics in One Lesson).”
January 8, 2024
Concepts
• Shi vs li
• Ziel, mittel, zweck
• Roundabout
• Wuwei
• Ex ante
• Ex post
• Weiqi
• Conifers vs angiosperms
• Tail hedging
• Austrian investing
• Intertemporal
• If there is no advantage, do not move into action
Coniferous trees, chap 2
“Anyone can see the pinecones in the tree. None can see the trees, none can foresee the forest in the pinecone.” /Everett Klipp
“Thus, we are not merely learning about the growth of conifers, and how they opportunistically exploit available resources; we see beyond the forest and the trees to the fundamental and universal lessons they contain. We look to the conifer and its logic of growth, and we learn from one of the truly great success stories of natural history. Trough its adaptive strategy that has allowed it to survive over hundreds of millions of years, the patient and persistent conifer teaches us that it is far better to avoid direct, head-on competition for scarce resources, and instead, to pursue the roundabout path toward an intermediate step that leads to its eventual position of advantage.” 36
The world learns sisu from the victorious Finn’s.
(Winter war 1939-1940)
“ Among these many influences and factors that lead to the finish victory, we cannot underestimate the importance of sisu. Difficult to translate - a linguistic trait shared with shi - sisu has been compared to having guts, moxie, courage, toughness, tenacity, stubbornness, strength of will, and determination. Sisu is perhaps best thought of as gritty perseverance, making it a natural compliment to the strategic positional advantage of shi. Inherent in sisu is intertemporal endurance, not gritting teeth in a difficult moment, but rather possessing fortitude that sustains along an arduous path, from one seemingly insurmountable challenge to the next.
Sisu permeates the identity of the finish people, capturing their national character long before they were an independent nation, with a gritty perseverance rooted in the land and history. Flat forested tundra, pitted with lakes and marshes, this isolated land is plunged into Arctic darkness for a significant portion of the year, making even daily life, a test of endurance at times. Overlaying such will to survive is centuries of having been a battleground for the Swedes to the west and the Russians to the east.” 278-280
• Shi vs li
• Ziel, mittel, zweck
• Roundabout
• Wuwei
• Ex ante
• Ex post
• Weiqi
• Conifers vs angiosperms
• Tail hedging
• Austrian investing
• Intertemporal
• If there is no advantage, do not move into action
Coniferous trees, chap 2
“Anyone can see the pinecones in the tree. None can see the trees, none can foresee the forest in the pinecone.” /Everett Klipp
“Thus, we are not merely learning about the growth of conifers, and how they opportunistically exploit available resources; we see beyond the forest and the trees to the fundamental and universal lessons they contain. We look to the conifer and its logic of growth, and we learn from one of the truly great success stories of natural history. Trough its adaptive strategy that has allowed it to survive over hundreds of millions of years, the patient and persistent conifer teaches us that it is far better to avoid direct, head-on competition for scarce resources, and instead, to pursue the roundabout path toward an intermediate step that leads to its eventual position of advantage.” 36
The world learns sisu from the victorious Finn’s.
(Winter war 1939-1940)
“ Among these many influences and factors that lead to the finish victory, we cannot underestimate the importance of sisu. Difficult to translate - a linguistic trait shared with shi - sisu has been compared to having guts, moxie, courage, toughness, tenacity, stubbornness, strength of will, and determination. Sisu is perhaps best thought of as gritty perseverance, making it a natural compliment to the strategic positional advantage of shi. Inherent in sisu is intertemporal endurance, not gritting teeth in a difficult moment, but rather possessing fortitude that sustains along an arduous path, from one seemingly insurmountable challenge to the next.
Sisu permeates the identity of the finish people, capturing their national character long before they were an independent nation, with a gritty perseverance rooted in the land and history. Flat forested tundra, pitted with lakes and marshes, this isolated land is plunged into Arctic darkness for a significant portion of the year, making even daily life, a test of endurance at times. Overlaying such will to survive is centuries of having been a battleground for the Swedes to the west and the Russians to the east.” 278-280
November 13, 2016
This was a tough book to hack through, and I don't say that very often. The book's premise is summarized as: "Rather than pursue the direct route of immediate gain, we will seek the difficult and roundabout route of immediate loss, an intermediate step which begets an advantage for greater potential gain". Delayed gratification, as it were. The author proceeds to bring in Eastern philosophy, the growth patterns of boreal forests, the military strategies of Clausewitz, Henry Ford, fire suppression strategies of the National Park Service, and several other seemingly off-topic subjects and eventually relates them all to Austrian-style investing. Now the author is a brilliant and successful man, but the writing style is rather academic. Some of the examples are interesting but it is a bit dense in places. The author seems to favor black-swan type investing, as well as "waiting for the fat pitch", as Warren Buffet has said.
July 20, 2021
Interesante libro que vale la pena leer aunque es verdad que tiene poco de recomendaciones concretas y se enfoca más en explicar una filosofía de inversión (y de vida) basada en la paciencia para obtener beneficios mayores, aunque se sacrifique el corto plazo.
Con referencias que van desde la antigua sabiduría china hasta las lecciones de la escuela austríaca de economía, pasando por la estrategia militar de von Clausewitz, es un libro de fácil lectura, que capta la atención y hace reflexionar, especialmente en esta época en la que buscamos la satisfacción inmediata de todos nuestros deseos.
Las reflexiones del autor hacen eco a lo que el gran pensador del s XIX, Frederic Bastiat, había identificado como la característica principal de un buen economista: "Toda la diferencia entre un mal y un buen economista es ésta: uno se limita al efecto visible [de algún acto privado o política pública]; el otro tiene en cuenta [no solo] el efecto que se ve sino, además, los que hay que prever [aunque no se vean de inmediato]. Pero esta diferencia es enorme, ya que casi siempre sucede que, cuando la consecuencia inmediata es favorable, las consecuencias ulteriores son funestas, y vice versa. — Así, el mal economista persigue un beneficio inmediato que será seguido de un gran mal en el futuro, mientras que el verdadero economista persigue un gran bien para el futuro, aun a riesgo de un pequeño mal presente." Lo mismo se podría decir de un buen inversionista.
Con referencias que van desde la antigua sabiduría china hasta las lecciones de la escuela austríaca de economía, pasando por la estrategia militar de von Clausewitz, es un libro de fácil lectura, que capta la atención y hace reflexionar, especialmente en esta época en la que buscamos la satisfacción inmediata de todos nuestros deseos.
Las reflexiones del autor hacen eco a lo que el gran pensador del s XIX, Frederic Bastiat, había identificado como la característica principal de un buen economista: "Toda la diferencia entre un mal y un buen economista es ésta: uno se limita al efecto visible [de algún acto privado o política pública]; el otro tiene en cuenta [no solo] el efecto que se ve sino, además, los que hay que prever [aunque no se vean de inmediato]. Pero esta diferencia es enorme, ya que casi siempre sucede que, cuando la consecuencia inmediata es favorable, las consecuencias ulteriores son funestas, y vice versa. — Así, el mal economista persigue un beneficio inmediato que será seguido de un gran mal en el futuro, mientras que el verdadero economista persigue un gran bien para el futuro, aun a riesgo de un pequeño mal presente." Lo mismo se podría decir de un buen inversionista.
June 13, 2020
This book is not really what I expected, but I mean that in a good way. Taleb says somewhere that people who feel successful at economics spend their time talking about literature, art, politics, science, while those who feel unsuccessful at economics spend their time talking about money and finance. The author definitely falls into the first group, and his passion for the subjects he uses as metaphors for lessons in investment (conifers and forest growth, warfare, addiction) seem to be almost more prominent as topics in the text. What I mean is I feel like I learned more about forests and conifers than I did about investing, but I think that is probably even better. That is what was surprising for me though. I guess his meta-narrative actually reflects his basic point, that the roundabout way is the better, more effective way than the direct way.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
January 30, 2018
Very solid exploration of the early Austrian School of Economics from the point of view of the investor. He spends a great of every clarifying Böhm-Bawerk's "round-about" theory of capital formation and value-adding, and as such is one of the easiest points of entrance to the thinking of that now largely neglected thinker. Spitznagel's record speaks for itself. He's a quiet but potent thinker on the level of Nassim Taleb. If you buy and read this, you ought to also find and read Rahim Tagezidigan's "Austrian School for Investors," a worthy pendant to this volume.
March 22, 2022
Denna var djupsinnigare och finurligare än den har rätten att vara. Den tar fasta på den gamla systemteoretiska instinkten om att allt är ett, och ömsesidigt påverkande, och applicerar den på ekonomi och ekonomiskt relaterade discipliner, såsom psykologi, politik och ekologi. Resultatet är en betraktelse från många perspektiv av samma fenomen: ett slags mandalaeffekt, eller ett klassiskt upplysningsperspektiv. Jag tror att de flesta som läser den kommer att le inombords; rekommenderas varmt helt enkelt.
June 28, 2021
No one can know the future, but life forces us to make guesses about. There're technical tools that help, but they're themselves based on assumptions about reality. So what to do? How to choose? Spitznagel talks about what goes through his mind as he thinks about making those choices. He explicitly says so in the intro and he delivered what he promised. Bad ratings and reviews are expecting something he did not. This is _not_ a technical or a recipe book. He avoids being direct maybe a little too much, but I think it is a test of whether you're paying attention :)
February 12, 2022
Spitznagel describes his contrarian investment concepts well. The focus on the origins of his concepts help with a more holistic and conceptual framework for explaining his thoughts.
A lot of reviews criticize the writing. I found it interesting even though the historical coverage can be a bit lengthy at times.
At the same time, while the framework could probably be described in fewer pages (e.g. limited to chapters 9 and 10), I don't think simply describing a contrarian point of view would be sufficient to really understand why this framework could work even though it is so different from how most people approach the market.
A lot of reviews criticize the writing. I found it interesting even though the historical coverage can be a bit lengthy at times.
At the same time, while the framework could probably be described in fewer pages (e.g. limited to chapters 9 and 10), I don't think simply describing a contrarian point of view would be sufficient to really understand why this framework could work even though it is so different from how most people approach the market.
August 19, 2023
The roundabout way to production — patient today and tomorrow to be impatient the next day. Hate to make money love to lose money.
Thought the investment strategy section needed more than just two chapters.
9 chapters of explaining the philosophy behind the investment strategy seemed a bit overboard. The philosophy is mostly explained in the first chapter talking about how you have to position yourself for the future as if each moment is a series of “now moments”. Wish there was more about black swan idea.
Thought the investment strategy section needed more than just two chapters.
9 chapters of explaining the philosophy behind the investment strategy seemed a bit overboard. The philosophy is mostly explained in the first chapter talking about how you have to position yourself for the future as if each moment is a series of “now moments”. Wish there was more about black swan idea.
May 10, 2021
Spitznagel is an investor and investment manager who has made a name for himself by using strategies that usually lose money but occasionally pay off handsomely. These "tail hedges" constitute a small portion of an otherwise conventional portfolio with the goal that the portfolio performs almost as well as an unhedged portfolio in ordinary times but greatly outperforms when markets fall.
Those who read Spitznagel's book hoping to replicate his investment techniques will be disappointed. Instead, they will find centuries-old ideas about when to most profitably harvest timber, criticism of interventionist monetary policy, musings on the relative strengths of conifers and angiosperms, military strategy and history, a bit of autobiography, and even a parable about shepherds. Most readers (including me) will have to reach for their dictionaries every few pages as Spitznagel is not afraid to use the full breadth of his vocabulary. That said, Spitznagel does (towards the end of the book) provide some actionable insights regarding both tail hedging and stock picking.
Spitznagel's central claim is that a "roundabout" strategy is often best, thus echoing the old proverb that "the longest way round is the shortest way home." In other words, those who plan, wait and move only when the opportunity presents itself often outperform those who always charge ahead. Spitznagel illustrates this idea by contrasting slower-growing conifers (pines, firs, etc.) with faster-growing angiosperms (oaks, maples); while the angiosperms often temporarily outcompete, the conifers come roaring back after a fire. Similarly, the Finns retreated in the face of a Soviet advance, obtained defensible positions, and gradually dismantled the Soviet invaders. Spitznagel eventually uses these ideas to argue for investing in companies with a high return on invested capital and a relatively low valuation as measured relative to net worth. Such companies are incentivized to continue to invest in their own success.
In a curious coincidence, Spitznagel is a practitioner of tuishou ("push hands"), a martial art also practiced by chess master Josh Waitzkin and described in Art of Learning. Successful competitors use an opponent's attacks against them, just as Spitznagel uses market routs to his advantage.
The book is as much history and philosophy as investment insight, and the style is occasionally ponderous. But the anecdotes are fascinating, and the insights are valuable. Investors will benefit from the book, but anyone with broad interests will find it enjoyable, provided they are willing to persevere in the face of the occasional obscure reference.
Those who read Spitznagel's book hoping to replicate his investment techniques will be disappointed. Instead, they will find centuries-old ideas about when to most profitably harvest timber, criticism of interventionist monetary policy, musings on the relative strengths of conifers and angiosperms, military strategy and history, a bit of autobiography, and even a parable about shepherds. Most readers (including me) will have to reach for their dictionaries every few pages as Spitznagel is not afraid to use the full breadth of his vocabulary. That said, Spitznagel does (towards the end of the book) provide some actionable insights regarding both tail hedging and stock picking.
Spitznagel's central claim is that a "roundabout" strategy is often best, thus echoing the old proverb that "the longest way round is the shortest way home." In other words, those who plan, wait and move only when the opportunity presents itself often outperform those who always charge ahead. Spitznagel illustrates this idea by contrasting slower-growing conifers (pines, firs, etc.) with faster-growing angiosperms (oaks, maples); while the angiosperms often temporarily outcompete, the conifers come roaring back after a fire. Similarly, the Finns retreated in the face of a Soviet advance, obtained defensible positions, and gradually dismantled the Soviet invaders. Spitznagel eventually uses these ideas to argue for investing in companies with a high return on invested capital and a relatively low valuation as measured relative to net worth. Such companies are incentivized to continue to invest in their own success.
In a curious coincidence, Spitznagel is a practitioner of tuishou ("push hands"), a martial art also practiced by chess master Josh Waitzkin and described in Art of Learning. Successful competitors use an opponent's attacks against them, just as Spitznagel uses market routs to his advantage.
The book is as much history and philosophy as investment insight, and the style is occasionally ponderous. But the anecdotes are fascinating, and the insights are valuable. Investors will benefit from the book, but anyone with broad interests will find it enjoyable, provided they are willing to persevere in the face of the occasional obscure reference.
September 28, 2014
Got this book because it was highly recommended by a few good value investors.
And yes, it is a very substantial book - it goes through in a roundabout way, as it preaches in the book itself.
The book ought to have been shorter, but it was easy enough to browse through some of the rambling.
Brilliant takeaways though -
There is a great competitive advantage in being long term greedy and looking beyond the evident and immediate. While many preach it, most dont have the temperament to follow it.
As I got through the book, I kept thinking that this sounds more and more like value investing - and in the last chapter, it does say that Graham and Buffett were/ are quite close to this Austrian way of thinking.
The small story about Finland vs USSR in 1940 was also thought provoking.
The bits about Anti-Keynesian views and pre-Mises/ Hayek/ Rothbard views were fun to read.
Good book - but learn when to jump through parts.
And yes, the first few chapters make one want to burn the book - coz it goes on and on...
But try and make your way through it.
And yes, it is a very substantial book - it goes through in a roundabout way, as it preaches in the book itself.
The book ought to have been shorter, but it was easy enough to browse through some of the rambling.
Brilliant takeaways though -
There is a great competitive advantage in being long term greedy and looking beyond the evident and immediate. While many preach it, most dont have the temperament to follow it.
As I got through the book, I kept thinking that this sounds more and more like value investing - and in the last chapter, it does say that Graham and Buffett were/ are quite close to this Austrian way of thinking.
The small story about Finland vs USSR in 1940 was also thought provoking.
The bits about Anti-Keynesian views and pre-Mises/ Hayek/ Rothbard views were fun to read.
Good book - but learn when to jump through parts.
And yes, the first few chapters make one want to burn the book - coz it goes on and on...
But try and make your way through it.
October 26, 2014
I enjoyed this audiobook (but reading it would have been a chore) as it takes the reader through a bunch of fairly interesting topics that really weren't necessary to go though, but I didn't mind. I like learning about econ buffs who put their money where their theory is, so it's nice to have someone approach investing through an Austrian economics lens. I don't know if his strategy is worth the trouble, but the basic idea is that there's two edges to exploit while investing. 1. The too short time preference of other investors. And, 2. The distortions caused by central bank meddling. He offers some formulas to do so, but I'll probably never test it out.
November 5, 2017
The initial chapters are too daunting, with information being repeated over and over again. The author's justification for it is to provide the theoretical background necessary for the final two chapters, still, most of what was said could be condensed significantly.
By the end of the book, I consider that the reading provided me with new and interesting concepts. The final two chapters rap it all up and make it worth reading.
The 3 stars is mostly due to the very slow and repetitive start of the book.
By the end of the book, I consider that the reading provided me with new and interesting concepts. The final two chapters rap it all up and make it worth reading.
The 3 stars is mostly due to the very slow and repetitive start of the book.
March 18, 2019
Traces history of Austrian Economics and the "roundabout" umweg via China, Vienna, Conifers and the trading pits. I found the reiteration of the idea almost meditative. As for Austrian Investing it's quite clear once you understand where he's coming from. In a way I guess the book mirrors the roundabout.
September 12, 2014
Spitznagel brings powerful ideas incredibly well simplified.
Negative: a lot of repeat. Sometimes difficult to see relevance in his (cool) anecdotes of his trader career to the message he wants to bring.
Negative: a lot of repeat. Sometimes difficult to see relevance in his (cool) anecdotes of his trader career to the message he wants to bring.
July 8, 2014
Much longer. 1/3 of the book hás something interesting. Tha's all.
April 15, 2015
Interesting read, but repetitive.
October 29, 2019
Most of this book is about warfare, philosophy, botany, and Austrian economics history, but it teaches lessons throughout. All of that is a foundation laid for the ninth and tenth chapters, which (finally) describe investment strategy based on the principles of a rational school of economics -- economics as deduced by the efforts of rational theorists. As the book explains, the basis of the Austrian school of economics was sufficiently well established for one of its principal figures, Ludwig von Mises, to foresee the Great Depression and come out ahead, while every other prominent economist and finance professional of the time that comes to mind took a bath in its fallout.
Some of those who lost learned important lessons. Others invented new theories of economics that have won widespread respect, despite the fact they essentially did nothing more than declare impenetrable mysteries (often easily resolved by applying the principles of Austrian economic theory), revive the dying traditions of German economic historicism, and perform the economic statistical equivalent of reading tea leaves. Yes, I'm looking at you, Lord John Maynard Keynes.
On the path from Lao Tzu to Austrian economic theory as we know it today, via pinecones, Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, and a variety of other stops (and continued visits to coniferous forests where we find those pinecones), Mark Spitznagel renders a rich and colorful portrait of knowledge about the conditions of capital investment today under the yoke of governmental micromanagement. Amongst all this, he highlights the salient facts just under our noses (and those of everyone else) all along, but mostly ignored by almost everyone, and extracts the surprisingly simple truth of how to profit from the blindness of those who refuse to see it (and perhaps push a bit of money in the direction of those who most efficiently generate the wealth we enjoy while you're at it).
As something of a taoist, pragmatic rationalist, philosopher, and self-directed student of Austrian economics myself, it should come as no surprise that
The author regularly exhorts us to take a roundabout path, going with the flow of the twisting watercourse way with purposeful inaction, retreating to win ground. As something of a taoist, pragmatic rationalist, philosopher, and self-directed student of Austrian economics myself, it should come as no surprise that this resonates with me. The author's principles-based approach to determining how to work around the damage done by economic distortions of market meddling by central banks served as a refinement and clarification of my own thinking on how best to position my assets in patient but determined pursuit of compounding profits for future benefit, more than as wholly new revelation to me. The tour of the author's in-depth thinking through all the material in the book fascinated, rather than bored, me. Your mileage may vary.
As with various words of his I have encountered online, Mark Spitznagel's book gets a bit long-winded and (appropriately enough, given his focus on roundabout paths to profit) circuitous, but it should reward the patient and interested reader well. All of this really does aid in understanding the actual investment strategies described in the end of a book somewhat longer than I expected when I set out to find it.
I made copious notes, including some about other books I should read, whose authors get a mention in this work. I plan to review those notes and perhaps do some writing of my own about what insights I had along the way, maybe after reading one or two of those other books the author mentioned (though I have some short essay material already scribbled out late in the night after reading and thinking well past when I should have gone to sleep).
I believe it is worth far more than the time invested in reading it, and thinking about it, even before making use of the strategic advice he offers. I've already profited.
Some of those who lost learned important lessons. Others invented new theories of economics that have won widespread respect, despite the fact they essentially did nothing more than declare impenetrable mysteries (often easily resolved by applying the principles of Austrian economic theory), revive the dying traditions of German economic historicism, and perform the economic statistical equivalent of reading tea leaves. Yes, I'm looking at you, Lord John Maynard Keynes.
On the path from Lao Tzu to Austrian economic theory as we know it today, via pinecones, Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, and a variety of other stops (and continued visits to coniferous forests where we find those pinecones), Mark Spitznagel renders a rich and colorful portrait of knowledge about the conditions of capital investment today under the yoke of governmental micromanagement. Amongst all this, he highlights the salient facts just under our noses (and those of everyone else) all along, but mostly ignored by almost everyone, and extracts the surprisingly simple truth of how to profit from the blindness of those who refuse to see it (and perhaps push a bit of money in the direction of those who most efficiently generate the wealth we enjoy while you're at it).
As something of a taoist, pragmatic rationalist, philosopher, and self-directed student of Austrian economics myself, it should come as no surprise that
The author regularly exhorts us to take a roundabout path, going with the flow of the twisting watercourse way with purposeful inaction, retreating to win ground. As something of a taoist, pragmatic rationalist, philosopher, and self-directed student of Austrian economics myself, it should come as no surprise that this resonates with me. The author's principles-based approach to determining how to work around the damage done by economic distortions of market meddling by central banks served as a refinement and clarification of my own thinking on how best to position my assets in patient but determined pursuit of compounding profits for future benefit, more than as wholly new revelation to me. The tour of the author's in-depth thinking through all the material in the book fascinated, rather than bored, me. Your mileage may vary.
As with various words of his I have encountered online, Mark Spitznagel's book gets a bit long-winded and (appropriately enough, given his focus on roundabout paths to profit) circuitous, but it should reward the patient and interested reader well. All of this really does aid in understanding the actual investment strategies described in the end of a book somewhat longer than I expected when I set out to find it.
I made copious notes, including some about other books I should read, whose authors get a mention in this work. I plan to review those notes and perhaps do some writing of my own about what insights I had along the way, maybe after reading one or two of those other books the author mentioned (though I have some short essay material already scribbled out late in the night after reading and thinking well past when I should have gone to sleep).
I believe it is worth far more than the time invested in reading it, and thinking about it, even before making use of the strategic advice he offers. I've already profited.
June 6, 2023
To observe and appreciate the homeostatic nature of the market (the market that, as Mises reminded us, is a process) we must shift our perception and stop thinking of systems as being driven only as a hapless victim of random shocks (such as lightning strikes that start fires), and instead embrace the reality of the system as adapting to those shocks in an ongoing discovery process.
Clearly, though, there is a dichotomy: on one hand how things should function in their natural state and, on the other, how and why they fall into dysfunction (where the fault is almost always outside manipulation, not the system itself). Yet that is not what most people see. They cannot see the forest because they are trying to save each individual and immediate tree, and in so doing lose all depth of field and of focus on the generations of trees and the intertemporal search for their mix and magnitude of growth within the forest to come. All too often, particularly today, the focus is only on the shocks and fires with a desire to control and prevent. The desire is to interfere and, perhaps innocently, override the system’s natural governors that maintain balance; in so doing, things are made so much worse. We have thus succumbed to a blind faith in bureaucratic authority over natural processes.
And yet, we do well to heed the words of Austrian economist and Mises protégé Friedrich Hayek who observed, “Before we can even ask how things might go wrong, we must first explain how they could ever go right.” Homeostasis is the process of how things “go right.” Within the roundabout of capital accumulation in a progressing economy (the figurative directional “going right” that is, indeed, how things “go right” in a healthy manner) homeostasis recalls shi—the propensity of all systems to restore balance through self-righting movements that in a natural world are no more disruptive than ripples on a pond. We think of the Daoist concept of reversion, of things becoming their opposite—soft in order to be hard, weak before strong, retreating before advancing—and Klipp’s Paradox of losing in order to win. An intertemporal balance can be achieved, however, only when communication and controls are allowed to function naturally.
***
Minsky’s belief that the leveraged run-up is the underlying cause of crashes is similar to the notion of self-organized criticality in a dynamical system, the classic metaphor of which is the sand pile effect. Grain by grain the pile gets higher until it is of considerable height, and at some point will reach a critical state where just one more grain will cause a cascading collapse—an avalanche of sorts (the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back). This basic cellular automata model has similarly been applied to forest fire models and to stock market crashes—with exceedingly limited success; indeed, it has become fashionable to look at crashes as critical systemwide landslides. However, these and Minsky’s analyses miss the mark: The homeostatic market process must first be broken by intervention from outside the system in order for it to fail. Specifically, criticality is not an inherent epiphenomenon of the system, growing organically as a delicate cascading network from within. Rather, it grows from unhealthy sprouts doomed at their start from a temporary deception, a miscommunication and failure of control within the cybernetic machine.
Clearly, though, there is a dichotomy: on one hand how things should function in their natural state and, on the other, how and why they fall into dysfunction (where the fault is almost always outside manipulation, not the system itself). Yet that is not what most people see. They cannot see the forest because they are trying to save each individual and immediate tree, and in so doing lose all depth of field and of focus on the generations of trees and the intertemporal search for their mix and magnitude of growth within the forest to come. All too often, particularly today, the focus is only on the shocks and fires with a desire to control and prevent. The desire is to interfere and, perhaps innocently, override the system’s natural governors that maintain balance; in so doing, things are made so much worse. We have thus succumbed to a blind faith in bureaucratic authority over natural processes.
And yet, we do well to heed the words of Austrian economist and Mises protégé Friedrich Hayek who observed, “Before we can even ask how things might go wrong, we must first explain how they could ever go right.” Homeostasis is the process of how things “go right.” Within the roundabout of capital accumulation in a progressing economy (the figurative directional “going right” that is, indeed, how things “go right” in a healthy manner) homeostasis recalls shi—the propensity of all systems to restore balance through self-righting movements that in a natural world are no more disruptive than ripples on a pond. We think of the Daoist concept of reversion, of things becoming their opposite—soft in order to be hard, weak before strong, retreating before advancing—and Klipp’s Paradox of losing in order to win. An intertemporal balance can be achieved, however, only when communication and controls are allowed to function naturally.
***
Minsky’s belief that the leveraged run-up is the underlying cause of crashes is similar to the notion of self-organized criticality in a dynamical system, the classic metaphor of which is the sand pile effect. Grain by grain the pile gets higher until it is of considerable height, and at some point will reach a critical state where just one more grain will cause a cascading collapse—an avalanche of sorts (the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back). This basic cellular automata model has similarly been applied to forest fire models and to stock market crashes—with exceedingly limited success; indeed, it has become fashionable to look at crashes as critical systemwide landslides. However, these and Minsky’s analyses miss the mark: The homeostatic market process must first be broken by intervention from outside the system in order for it to fail. Specifically, criticality is not an inherent epiphenomenon of the system, growing organically as a delicate cascading network from within. Rather, it grows from unhealthy sprouts doomed at their start from a temporary deception, a miscommunication and failure of control within the cybernetic machine.
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