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Market Wizards #4
Hedge Fund Market Wizards: How Winning Traders Win
Fascinating insights into the hedge fund traders who consistently outperform the markets, in their own words
From bestselling author, investment expert, and Wall Street theoretician Jack Schwager comes a behind-the-scenes look at the world of hedge funds, from fifteen traders who've consistently beaten the markets. Exploring what makes a great trader a great trader, "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" breaks new ground, giving readers rare insight into the trading philosophy and successful methods employed by some of the most profitable individuals in the hedge fund business.Presents exclusive interviews with fifteen of the most successful hedge fund traders and what they've learned over the course of their careersIncludes interviews with Jamie Mai, Joel Greenblatt, Michael Platt, Ray Dalio, Colm O'Shea, Ed Thorp, and many moreExplains forty key lessons for tradersJoins "Stock Market Wizards, " "New Market Wizards, "and "Market Wizards" as the fourth installment of investment guru Jack Schwager's acclaimed bestselling series of interviews with stock market experts
A candid assessment of each trader's successes and failures, in their own words, the book shows readers what they can learn from each, and also outlines forty essential lessons--from finding a trading method that fits an investor's personality to learning to appreciate the value of diversification--that investment professionals everywhere can apply in their own careers.
Bringing together the wisdom of the true masters of the markets, "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" is a collection of timeless insights into what it takes to trade in the hedge fund world.
From bestselling author, investment expert, and Wall Street theoretician Jack Schwager comes a behind-the-scenes look at the world of hedge funds, from fifteen traders who've consistently beaten the markets. Exploring what makes a great trader a great trader, "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" breaks new ground, giving readers rare insight into the trading philosophy and successful methods employed by some of the most profitable individuals in the hedge fund business.Presents exclusive interviews with fifteen of the most successful hedge fund traders and what they've learned over the course of their careersIncludes interviews with Jamie Mai, Joel Greenblatt, Michael Platt, Ray Dalio, Colm O'Shea, Ed Thorp, and many moreExplains forty key lessons for tradersJoins "Stock Market Wizards, " "New Market Wizards, "and "Market Wizards" as the fourth installment of investment guru Jack Schwager's acclaimed bestselling series of interviews with stock market experts
A candid assessment of each trader's successes and failures, in their own words, the book shows readers what they can learn from each, and also outlines forty essential lessons--from finding a trading method that fits an investor's personality to learning to appreciate the value of diversification--that investment professionals everywhere can apply in their own careers.
Bringing together the wisdom of the true masters of the markets, "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" is a collection of timeless insights into what it takes to trade in the hedge fund world.
549 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2012
522 people are currently reading
6094 people want to read
About the author
Jack D. Schwager
28 books728 followersJack Schwager is a recognized industry expert in futures and hedge funds and the author of a number of widely acclaimed financial books. He is currently the co-portfolio manager for the ADM Investor Services Diversified Strategies Fund, a portfolio of futures and FX managed accounts. Previously, Mr. Schwager was a partner in the Fortune Group, a London-based hedge fund advisory firm, which specialized in creating customized hedge fund portfolios for institutional clients. His prior experience includes 22 years as Director of Futures research for some of Wall Street’s leading firms and 10 years as the co-principal of a CTA.
Mr. Schwager has written extensively on the futures industry and great traders in all financial markets. He is perhaps best known for his best-selling series of interviews with the greatest hedge fund managers of the last two decades: Market Wizards (1989), The New Market Wizards (1992), and Stock Market Wizards (2001). The latest book in the series, Hedge Fund Market Wizards is due to be released in May 2012. Mr Schwager’s first book, A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets (1984) is considered to be one of the classic reference works in the field. He later revised and expanded this original work into the three-volume series, Schwager on Futures, consisting of Fundamental Analysis (1995), Technical Analysis (1996), and Managed Trading (1996). He is also the author of Getting Started in Technical Analysis (1999), part of John Wiley’s popular Getting Started series.
Mr. Schwager is a frequent seminar speaker and has lectured on a range of analytical topics including the characteristics of great traders, investment fallacies, hedge fund portfolios, managed accounts, technical analysis, and trading system evaluation. He holds a BA in Economics from Brooklyn College (1970) and an MA in Economics from Brown University (1971).
Mr. Schwager has written extensively on the futures industry and great traders in all financial markets. He is perhaps best known for his best-selling series of interviews with the greatest hedge fund managers of the last two decades: Market Wizards (1989), The New Market Wizards (1992), and Stock Market Wizards (2001). The latest book in the series, Hedge Fund Market Wizards is due to be released in May 2012. Mr Schwager’s first book, A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets (1984) is considered to be one of the classic reference works in the field. He later revised and expanded this original work into the three-volume series, Schwager on Futures, consisting of Fundamental Analysis (1995), Technical Analysis (1996), and Managed Trading (1996). He is also the author of Getting Started in Technical Analysis (1999), part of John Wiley’s popular Getting Started series.
Mr. Schwager is a frequent seminar speaker and has lectured on a range of analytical topics including the characteristics of great traders, investment fallacies, hedge fund portfolios, managed accounts, technical analysis, and trading system evaluation. He holds a BA in Economics from Brooklyn College (1970) and an MA in Economics from Brown University (1971).
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 116 reviews
April 23, 2013
This is excellent; the best one yet in the series. Following are notes from the various interviews -- simply what I picked up as relevant on this round of reading, not indicative necessarily of what is most generally important or essential. The top three interviews to me were probably Ray Dalio (Bridgewater), Joel Greenblatt (Gotham) and Jamie Mai (Cornwall). I liked many of the others too. A few -- e.g. Jimmy Balodimas, Jeff Woodriff, Edward Thorp -- felt less relevant as their style is beyond my personality or intellect, but it was still good reading about them, Thorp in particular.
Ray Dalio:
Absolutely beautiful interview -- gives a sense of what Bridgewater does and why, which is valuable not because I could ever replicate it, but simply because it shows how cleverly thought out the approach is.
Basically, diversify -- but Dalio makes the point that buying 10 different stocks is not diversification because they are all correlated to the S&P at least 50-60%. So you need to diversify across asset class -- not just your standard stocks vs bonds, but into an intricacy of vehicles with different drivers, e.g. Scandinavian currency crosses, etc. Find 15-20 instruments with logically different drivers for their market movement, ie true diversification, not just mathematical correlation. System trader (I knew that) but uses purely fundamental and zero technical inputs (I didn't know that), based on logical theory and empiricial backtesting over time and geographies. Essentially, the fundamental approach taken to its logical and empirical extreme.
Joel Greenblatt:
Simply reviving for me the sense behind value investing and looking for stocks earning a return on capital that is more than what the market prices in. What fascinates me here is how he and his partner managed to quantify and then systematize the approach into value based indices that have beaten broader market cap indices. Highly thoughtful interview. Will aim to read more of Greenblatt directly.
Jamie Mai:
Very, very thoughtful on using options to structure trades in the most efficient way. Too complicated to list here. Was portraited in Michael Lewis' The Big Short. This interview delves into his broader approach in more depth.
Colm O'Shea:
Basic but good lessons:
-To participate in a bubble do so in the most liquid way possible; don't hope to beat the crowd, but simply to participate, watch for the reversal, more money made that way
-Empiricist at heart: the unfolding reality trumps everything; fundamentals are not about forecasting the weather for tomorrow, but rather noticing that its raining today
-Big price changes are when lots of people are forced to reevaluate their prejudices, not necessarily when the world changes
-Implementation is key, implementation is more important than the motivating idea
-Have a method that suits your personality; you don't have to be brilliant and know everything and be correct all the time; recognise the world for what it is and be flexible to recognise you are wrong
Martin Taylor:
Impressive for running a long only equities fund that boasts absolute type returns. Trick is not being afraid of going to very high cash levels when he turns bearish -- still, very hard to pull off. I love this: "People who choose to go for an accounting degree at the age of 17 have limited intellectual heft and imagination".
Thorp:
Do what you love. Find your edge -- not everyone has the same edge -- if you are good at accounting then the value approach might work, if you are good at math/comsci then the quant approach might work. Not a new idea but I appreciate it given that it comes from a man who is basically a math genius who has invented ways to beat casinos as well as markets.
Many other little tidbits and highlights from the other interviews. Worth rereading.
Ray Dalio:
Absolutely beautiful interview -- gives a sense of what Bridgewater does and why, which is valuable not because I could ever replicate it, but simply because it shows how cleverly thought out the approach is.
Basically, diversify -- but Dalio makes the point that buying 10 different stocks is not diversification because they are all correlated to the S&P at least 50-60%. So you need to diversify across asset class -- not just your standard stocks vs bonds, but into an intricacy of vehicles with different drivers, e.g. Scandinavian currency crosses, etc. Find 15-20 instruments with logically different drivers for their market movement, ie true diversification, not just mathematical correlation. System trader (I knew that) but uses purely fundamental and zero technical inputs (I didn't know that), based on logical theory and empiricial backtesting over time and geographies. Essentially, the fundamental approach taken to its logical and empirical extreme.
Joel Greenblatt:
Simply reviving for me the sense behind value investing and looking for stocks earning a return on capital that is more than what the market prices in. What fascinates me here is how he and his partner managed to quantify and then systematize the approach into value based indices that have beaten broader market cap indices. Highly thoughtful interview. Will aim to read more of Greenblatt directly.
Jamie Mai:
Very, very thoughtful on using options to structure trades in the most efficient way. Too complicated to list here. Was portraited in Michael Lewis' The Big Short. This interview delves into his broader approach in more depth.
Colm O'Shea:
Basic but good lessons:
-To participate in a bubble do so in the most liquid way possible; don't hope to beat the crowd, but simply to participate, watch for the reversal, more money made that way
-Empiricist at heart: the unfolding reality trumps everything; fundamentals are not about forecasting the weather for tomorrow, but rather noticing that its raining today
-Big price changes are when lots of people are forced to reevaluate their prejudices, not necessarily when the world changes
-Implementation is key, implementation is more important than the motivating idea
-Have a method that suits your personality; you don't have to be brilliant and know everything and be correct all the time; recognise the world for what it is and be flexible to recognise you are wrong
Martin Taylor:
Impressive for running a long only equities fund that boasts absolute type returns. Trick is not being afraid of going to very high cash levels when he turns bearish -- still, very hard to pull off. I love this: "People who choose to go for an accounting degree at the age of 17 have limited intellectual heft and imagination".
Thorp:
Do what you love. Find your edge -- not everyone has the same edge -- if you are good at accounting then the value approach might work, if you are good at math/comsci then the quant approach might work. Not a new idea but I appreciate it given that it comes from a man who is basically a math genius who has invented ways to beat casinos as well as markets.
Many other little tidbits and highlights from the other interviews. Worth rereading.
May 28, 2014
Most books about trading are total garbage, you can troll through B&N or this bootleg Russkie site I know with tons of trading books and find only a handful of worthy reads. That's what makes Jack Schwager unique. In the last 25 years he has written 4-5 solid books on trading and traders that thru a series of interviews with traders of all pedigrees he uncovers all types of useful insights and outlooks. "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" is no different. Once again I found myself reading chapters heavy on useful ideas and light on fluff bullshit. In the end that is all one wants out of books in your career field.
December 30, 2014
Hedge Fund Market Wizards has some of the most interesting interviews I have come across - most notably Jamie Mai, Michael Platt, Colm O'Shea, Scott Ramsay and of course Ray Dalio. If one were to optimize the read I would select those chapters.
The interview with Jamie Mai is of particular interest to me because I also trade a long volatility book, not a tail risk fund, but one which buys vol when it's "cheap". One simple message sits with me, which I think is very timely, roughly: "the best indicator of a high volatility environment is compressed volatility."
Colm O'Shea probably takes the cake for me though, perhaps because of our mutual philosophical bent. Given he was a student of Soros and COMAC is sustaining the old-school style of single manager Vision Macro, when everyone else is behaving like tourists; I was thrilled to find someone who has the brass to stomach the volatility and the process to give himself the necessary courage of his convictions.
I think this is Schwager's best since the original and I am glad it has been shared in print for the new vintage of money managers to vicariously garner some of the skills, key principles and analytical processes of some of the industry's greats... A must read for anyone interested in trading and managing their own or other peoples money.
The interview with Jamie Mai is of particular interest to me because I also trade a long volatility book, not a tail risk fund, but one which buys vol when it's "cheap". One simple message sits with me, which I think is very timely, roughly: "the best indicator of a high volatility environment is compressed volatility."
Colm O'Shea probably takes the cake for me though, perhaps because of our mutual philosophical bent. Given he was a student of Soros and COMAC is sustaining the old-school style of single manager Vision Macro, when everyone else is behaving like tourists; I was thrilled to find someone who has the brass to stomach the volatility and the process to give himself the necessary courage of his convictions.
I think this is Schwager's best since the original and I am glad it has been shared in print for the new vintage of money managers to vicariously garner some of the skills, key principles and analytical processes of some of the industry's greats... A must read for anyone interested in trading and managing their own or other peoples money.
October 1, 2024
This was required reading for a class, and I was skeptical bc obviously the people who agreed to be interviewed must have had a motive for discussing their strategies and as a result disclosed information selectively. However, even if you just take the most objective bits of this, I learned a lot.
It surprised me how few of their trades are based on their own views vs. looking at what the rest of the market is doing, identifying what’s overcrowded, and trading it back to the mean. It also surprised me that most of these traders stick to a small # of trades, and just size them massively.
It surprised me how few of their trades are based on their own views vs. looking at what the rest of the market is doing, identifying what’s overcrowded, and trading it back to the mean. It also surprised me that most of these traders stick to a small # of trades, and just size them massively.
February 27, 2019
Youtube
https://youtu.be/AqCOw-pja7E
Further reading:
Ed Thorp 'A Man for All Markets'
Learning from the best: ‘Hedge Fund Market Wizards’, Jack Schwager
Colm O’Shea, COMAC Capital
* Large trading losses are simply incompatible with his methodology
* I recognize the world as I find it and that I am flexible enough to change my mind
* His edge is not forecasting what will happen, but rather recognizing what has happened
* I look for deviations between the fundamental probability distribution I perceive and the probability distribution priced in by the market.
* Views his trading ideas as hypotheses. A market move counter to the expected direction is proof that his hypothesis for that trade is wrong, and O'Shea then has no reluctance in liquidating the position.
* When I get out of a trade now, it is because I was wrong. I’m thinking, “Hmm, that shouldn’t have happened. Prices are inconsistent with my hypothesis. I’m wrong. I need to get out and rethink the situation.”
* Defines the price point that would invalidate his hypothesis before he places a trade. He sizes his position so that the loss from a move to that price level is limited to a small percentage of assets.
* He has no emotional attachment to an idea. When a trade is wrong, he will just cut it, move on, and do something else.
* I start by deciding where the market would have to go for me to be wrong. That's where I place my stop. That means that it's not difficult for me to get out of a position if the market goes there.
* First, you decide where you are wrong. That determines where the stop level should be. Then you work out how much you are willing to lose on the idea. Last, you divide the amount you're willing to lose by the per-contract loss to the stop point, and that determines your position size. The most common error I see is that people do it backwards. They start with position size. Then they know their pain threshold, and that determines where they place their stop.
* Many traders have the discipline to set stops and stick with them, but make the critical mistake of determining the stop points as pain thresholds rather than price levels that disprove their original trade premise.
* 1st decide where you are wrong, and then set the stop. If the stop implies a larger loss than you are comfortable taking on a single trade, then size the position correspondingly smaller
“There is massive herding in economic forecasting.”
“People get all excited about the price movements, but they completely misunderstand that there is a bigger picture in which those price movements happen. Price movements only have meaning in the context of the fundamental landscape.”
* Markets matter more than policy
* Even though something might be a good idea, you need to wait for and recognize the right time.
* All markets look liquid during the bubble, but it's the liquidity after the bubble ends that matters.
* The true start of the financial crisis was in August 2007 when money markets stopped working. Basically, banks didn’t trust other banks. That was the month the world broke, and no one noticed. LIBOR rates spiked.
“If you spoke to money market desks to find out what was going on, they told you that liquidity had dried up. They had never seen anything like it. If a similar event happened in any other market, it would be frontpage news. But the fact that it happened in the most important market—the money market, which is at the heart of capitalism—was largely ignored.”
* We were bearish on corporate credit, so we bought CDS protection. Since credit spreads were very narrow, if we were wrong, we would only lose a little bit of carry, but if we were right, the spreads could widen a lot. It was an asymmetric trade.
* CDS structurally offers cheaper melt protection vs equity puts: actually, they are very similar trades. If the equity market stayed strong, the loss in both positions would be limited—to the option premium for the puts and to the carry for the CDS position. If the equity markets fell, credit spreads would widen, and both long puts and long CDS protection positions would have large profits. The advantage of CDS was that it was a cheaper way of doing the trade. One problem with buying equity puts is that equity volatility tends to be very expensive. Who is the natural seller of equity puts? No one. Who is the natural buyer of equity puts? Everyone. The world is long equities, and people like owning insurance, so there is an excess of natural buyers for equity puts. That is why equity option prices are structurally expensive.
* long volatility, short credit, long the TED spread, and long the dollar because of an expected flight to quality. All of these trades had one thing in common: They were all the-world-is-going-to-get-scary trades.
* The fact that the economy was improving, even though it was still in bad shape, meant that the optimists could come back. Never underestimate the ability of people to be optimistic and believe that everything is going to be okay. Historically, what is important to the market is not whether growth is good or bad, but whether it is getting better or worse. Growth started getting less negative, and less negative is good news. Asia started going up. The Australian dollar started going up. The S&P was actually one of the last markets to turn higher in March 2009. By March to April, you were seeing a broad-based recovery in global markets.
* Equity people often make no sense to me. The reasons I think trades have worked are usually nothing like the reasons why equity people think they worked.
* Trading book rules are designed to protect traders who are gamblers. People who like trading because they like gambling are always going to be terrible at it. For these people, the trading books could be greatly shortened to the message: “Don’t trade. You are really bad at this. So just don’t do it.”
* The main thing about bubbles is that you need to be early. The worst thing you can do in a bubble is to be stubborn and then late to convert.
* VAR provides a worst-case loss estimate assuming future volatility and correlation levels look like the past. VAR is entirely backward looking. It tells you how volatile your current portfolio was in the past. That is all. You have to recognize that the future will be different. If I think the world in the future will be highly volatile, then I will run a current VAR that is relatively low because I think the future will be more volatile than the past. VAR gets a bad name because people manage risk by it, and the shortcoming is that volatilities and correlations can change very radically on an existing portfolio vis-a-vis what they were in the past.
* it is very difficult to pick a major turning point, such as where a market bubble will top, and that trying to do so is a losing strategy. Instead, he waits until events occur that confirm a trading hypothesis.
* He didn’t need to forecast anything, but he did need to recognize the significance of an event that many ignored.
* Sometimes, the market price action itself can reveal that something important is going on, even if the fundamental reason is not apparent. O’Shea experienced this situation in the course of LTCM’s demise, an event that strongly impacted most markets. Although O’Shea did not know the reason for the market action at the time, he reasoned that the magnitude of the move implied there was an important fundamental development, and he adjusted his positions accordingly.
* Best way to trade a market bubble is to participate on the long side to profit from the excessive euphoria, not to try to pick a top, which is nearly impossible and an approach vulnerable to large losses if one is early. The bubble cycle is easier to trade from the long side because the uptrend in a bubble is often relatively smooth, while the downtrend after the bubble bursts tends to be highly erratic. There are two components necessary to successfully trade the long side of a bubble. First, it is important to initiate a trade early in the bubble phase. Second, since bubbles are prone to abrupt, sharp downside reversals, it is critical that the long-biased position is structured so that the worst-case loss is limited.
https://keanchan.com/2016/12/06/inves...
Jamie Mai, Cornwall Capital
* Cheap optionality on special situations where the likely outcome is bi-modal but option prices still incorporate normal probability assumptions. Compounded benefits from (1) low recent volality & (2) long dated options that implies continued low vocality & in environment of (3) low i/r
* A good trader cuts loss when he is wrong, a great trader will reverse his trade
Michael Platt, BlueCrest
* I like to know what the consensus view is because you really do make the most money when the consensus shifts. Not just important to be right, need to be non consensus as well.
Right & Consensus: small gain, it’s in the price Right & Non Consensus: large gains but difficult
Wrong & Consensus: big loss when consensus shifts Wrong & Non Consensus: career risk
* It’s amazing how much information you can get about people’s positions by simply asking them about their opinions
* Stop loss + time stop: if a trade does not work within a reasonable amount of time, Platt will just liquidate rather than give it room to his original stop point
* When I am wrong, the only instinct I have is to get out. If I was thinking one way, and now I can see that it was a real mistake, then I am probably not the only person in shock, so I better be the first one to sell. I don’t care what the price is. If I enter a trade, and the minute I put it on, I feel uncomfortable, I will just turn around and get right out.
* Losing money is what kills you. It is not the actual loss. It’s the fact that it messes up your psychology. You lose the bullets in your gun. What happens is you put on a stupid trade, lose $20 million in 10 minutes, and take the trade off. You feel like an idiot, and you’re not in the mood to put on anything else. Then the elephant walks past you while your gun’s not loaded.
Steve Clark, Omni Partners
* Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. Dissect your P&L and see what works for you and what doesn’t.
* It is the size of the position you put on rather than the price at which you put it on that determines your ability to keep the position. Price is irrelevant; it is size that kills you. If you are too big in an illiquid stock, there is no way out. I wanted to cut the position, but I couldn’t. The other lesson this trade taught me is to focus on what works. Although traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade, in reality, the entry size is more important than the entry price because if the size is right, you are much more likely to stay with a winning trade.
* “If you wake up thinking about a position, it’s too big” - Steve Clark
* Your own views on the fundamentals of a story are totally irrelevant. What you have to do is gauge what the market thinks of the story
* You don’t want to be sitting in front of your screen and staring at market prices for 12 hours a day. Staring at the price is not going to tell you very much
* Adjust position size in response to the changing market environment. If the market volatility increases dramatically, traders need to reduce their normal exposure levels correspondingly, or else their risk will dramatically increase. In 2008, Clark reduced his exposure levels by 75 percent in response to sharply increased volatility.
* “Your job as a trader is to make the [P&L] line go from bottom left to top right. That’s it. If the line goes down too much or too long, you were wrong. You can’t argue that the market is wrong because it is your job to predict every move in the market. You had managers in 2008 who lost 50%, and in some cases even as much as 80%. Why? Because they couldn’t accept they were wrong. They keep doing the math, and they kept saying they were right. They missed the point. Their math might have been right, but their job isn’t to do the math; their job is to trade what is in front of them. You had guys saying they were right, the market was wrong, and that they had billions of dollars of embedded value in their portfolio. Their job isn’t to create billions of dollars of embedded value; their job is to make the line go from bottom left to top right. Once you understand that is your job as a trader, you have to start protecting the direction of the line.
Martin Taylor, Nevsky Capital now Crake Asset Mgmt
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...
* There are multiple requirements for a trade to take place. Do we like the company? Is it cheap? Does it generate cash flow? Do we trust the management? Do I have confidence in my projections? Is the macro outlook favorable?
* 3 basics checkboxes: (1) favorable macro situation, (2) secular trend, and (3) good company management. H0: can this be a 100x?
* Where’s the edge? Invest in companies that are cheap relative to their sector, but where we are forecasting earnings above consensus for the next few years. The catalyst I monitor for a stock to realize value is earnings surprise.
* You have to be an expert in what you invest in. You need to understand why you are invested. If you don’t understand why you are in a trade, you won’t understand when it is the right time to sell, which means you will only sell when the price action scares you. Most of the time when price action scares you, it is a buying opportunity, not a sell indicator.
* The best opportunities are those where you can identify a potential trend that the market does not appreciate because it is extrapolating history instead of looking forward.
* I will first look at the chart before putting on a position. If the stock is very overbought, it won’t stop me from buying, but I will start with a small position because there is a larger chance of a correction. If instead I put on the entire position and then the stock had a large correction, I would feel terrible. Say I really like a company and want to put 10 percent of the portfolio in it. If the stock is extremely overbought, then I might start with only a 1 percent position. If the stock just keeps on going up, then I am happy that I bought at least some. I will also be more willing to buy more because I bought part of the position at a lower price. Whereas, if I didn’t initially buy anything because the stock was overbought, I would then never buy any of it, which would be a dreadful mistake.
* I decide to buy a stock based on fundamentals and then look at the chart and see that it has massively underperformed relative to the market, I will check who has been selling the stock. Such price weakness might indicate that all our fundamental research is worthless because management has lied to us.
* If I am bullish on a stock but don’t have a full position, and then the stock breaks out on the chart, I will then go to a full position because the breakout confirms that the market is now seeing the same thing I am seeing.
* Investors often miss the best stocks because they can’t bring themselves to buy a stock that has already gone up a lot. What matters is not how much a stock has qone up, but rather how well a stock is priced relative to its future prospects.
* If right then positive earnings surprises during the next few years. If we get it wrong, we get out immediately. You just have to be pragmatic. When you get it wrong, you need to get out immediately. I am wrong all the time. If I can be right 60 percent of the time, and when I am right I have some big winners, and when I am wrong, I staunch the losses quickly, I can make a lot of money.
* Normally, if I like something, I stick with it. I consider my pattern of taking quick profits in 2009 a dreadful error that I think came about because I had lost a degree of confidence due to experiencing my first down year in 2008, even though the loss was consistent with the expected loss given the magnitude of the market decline.
* Accept volatility: for investors with a long-term perspective, a constraint of keeping monthly losses below some moderate threshold could be detrimental
* Important that your net exposure match your comfort level. For example, if you are uncomfortable being completely out of the market, then a flat position may actually be riskier than a modest long position because you will be much more likely to chase false rallies and get whipsawed.
* Benefits of trading within a net exposure comfort zone: a smaller net exposure may yield better returns, even if the market moves higher. For example, although the market eventually rose to higher levels, by sharply reducing his net long exposure in early January 2008, Taylor was in a position to increase his long exposure following the price plunge later in that month. If he had stayed heavily net long, he might well have been forced to sell into the market weakness to reduce risk. The difference between being a buyer on market weakness instead of a potential seller more than offset the reduced returns implied by a lower net exposure for the period as a whole.
Joe Vidich, Manalapan Oracle Advisers
* Listen for clues on company conference calls. Note also the sentiment: what questions are the analysts asking? What implications does this have for other companies? The supply chain? How did the stock price react to bullish or bearish outlook?
* Scale in/scale out: the next time you're unsure b/w cutting loss & riding it out, remember there's a 3rd alternative: partial liquidation
Kevin Daly, Five Corners Partners
https://sumzero.com/basic/sign_up
* Look for signs of evasiveness in mgmt Q&A
* Patience to stick w/ cash on the sidelines waiting to pounce when opportunities are scarce => timing the market cycles
Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Funds
https://www.gothamfunds.com/default.aspx
https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/va...
https://youtu.be/AqCOw-pja7E
Further reading:
Ed Thorp 'A Man for All Markets'
Learning from the best: ‘Hedge Fund Market Wizards’, Jack Schwager
Colm O’Shea, COMAC Capital
* Large trading losses are simply incompatible with his methodology
* I recognize the world as I find it and that I am flexible enough to change my mind
* His edge is not forecasting what will happen, but rather recognizing what has happened
* I look for deviations between the fundamental probability distribution I perceive and the probability distribution priced in by the market.
* Views his trading ideas as hypotheses. A market move counter to the expected direction is proof that his hypothesis for that trade is wrong, and O'Shea then has no reluctance in liquidating the position.
* When I get out of a trade now, it is because I was wrong. I’m thinking, “Hmm, that shouldn’t have happened. Prices are inconsistent with my hypothesis. I’m wrong. I need to get out and rethink the situation.”
* Defines the price point that would invalidate his hypothesis before he places a trade. He sizes his position so that the loss from a move to that price level is limited to a small percentage of assets.
* He has no emotional attachment to an idea. When a trade is wrong, he will just cut it, move on, and do something else.
* I start by deciding where the market would have to go for me to be wrong. That's where I place my stop. That means that it's not difficult for me to get out of a position if the market goes there.
* First, you decide where you are wrong. That determines where the stop level should be. Then you work out how much you are willing to lose on the idea. Last, you divide the amount you're willing to lose by the per-contract loss to the stop point, and that determines your position size. The most common error I see is that people do it backwards. They start with position size. Then they know their pain threshold, and that determines where they place their stop.
* Many traders have the discipline to set stops and stick with them, but make the critical mistake of determining the stop points as pain thresholds rather than price levels that disprove their original trade premise.
* 1st decide where you are wrong, and then set the stop. If the stop implies a larger loss than you are comfortable taking on a single trade, then size the position correspondingly smaller
“There is massive herding in economic forecasting.”
“People get all excited about the price movements, but they completely misunderstand that there is a bigger picture in which those price movements happen. Price movements only have meaning in the context of the fundamental landscape.”
* Markets matter more than policy
* Even though something might be a good idea, you need to wait for and recognize the right time.
* All markets look liquid during the bubble, but it's the liquidity after the bubble ends that matters.
* The true start of the financial crisis was in August 2007 when money markets stopped working. Basically, banks didn’t trust other banks. That was the month the world broke, and no one noticed. LIBOR rates spiked.
“If you spoke to money market desks to find out what was going on, they told you that liquidity had dried up. They had never seen anything like it. If a similar event happened in any other market, it would be frontpage news. But the fact that it happened in the most important market—the money market, which is at the heart of capitalism—was largely ignored.”
* We were bearish on corporate credit, so we bought CDS protection. Since credit spreads were very narrow, if we were wrong, we would only lose a little bit of carry, but if we were right, the spreads could widen a lot. It was an asymmetric trade.
* CDS structurally offers cheaper melt protection vs equity puts: actually, they are very similar trades. If the equity market stayed strong, the loss in both positions would be limited—to the option premium for the puts and to the carry for the CDS position. If the equity markets fell, credit spreads would widen, and both long puts and long CDS protection positions would have large profits. The advantage of CDS was that it was a cheaper way of doing the trade. One problem with buying equity puts is that equity volatility tends to be very expensive. Who is the natural seller of equity puts? No one. Who is the natural buyer of equity puts? Everyone. The world is long equities, and people like owning insurance, so there is an excess of natural buyers for equity puts. That is why equity option prices are structurally expensive.
* long volatility, short credit, long the TED spread, and long the dollar because of an expected flight to quality. All of these trades had one thing in common: They were all the-world-is-going-to-get-scary trades.
* The fact that the economy was improving, even though it was still in bad shape, meant that the optimists could come back. Never underestimate the ability of people to be optimistic and believe that everything is going to be okay. Historically, what is important to the market is not whether growth is good or bad, but whether it is getting better or worse. Growth started getting less negative, and less negative is good news. Asia started going up. The Australian dollar started going up. The S&P was actually one of the last markets to turn higher in March 2009. By March to April, you were seeing a broad-based recovery in global markets.
* Equity people often make no sense to me. The reasons I think trades have worked are usually nothing like the reasons why equity people think they worked.
* Trading book rules are designed to protect traders who are gamblers. People who like trading because they like gambling are always going to be terrible at it. For these people, the trading books could be greatly shortened to the message: “Don’t trade. You are really bad at this. So just don’t do it.”
* The main thing about bubbles is that you need to be early. The worst thing you can do in a bubble is to be stubborn and then late to convert.
* VAR provides a worst-case loss estimate assuming future volatility and correlation levels look like the past. VAR is entirely backward looking. It tells you how volatile your current portfolio was in the past. That is all. You have to recognize that the future will be different. If I think the world in the future will be highly volatile, then I will run a current VAR that is relatively low because I think the future will be more volatile than the past. VAR gets a bad name because people manage risk by it, and the shortcoming is that volatilities and correlations can change very radically on an existing portfolio vis-a-vis what they were in the past.
* it is very difficult to pick a major turning point, such as where a market bubble will top, and that trying to do so is a losing strategy. Instead, he waits until events occur that confirm a trading hypothesis.
* He didn’t need to forecast anything, but he did need to recognize the significance of an event that many ignored.
* Sometimes, the market price action itself can reveal that something important is going on, even if the fundamental reason is not apparent. O’Shea experienced this situation in the course of LTCM’s demise, an event that strongly impacted most markets. Although O’Shea did not know the reason for the market action at the time, he reasoned that the magnitude of the move implied there was an important fundamental development, and he adjusted his positions accordingly.
* Best way to trade a market bubble is to participate on the long side to profit from the excessive euphoria, not to try to pick a top, which is nearly impossible and an approach vulnerable to large losses if one is early. The bubble cycle is easier to trade from the long side because the uptrend in a bubble is often relatively smooth, while the downtrend after the bubble bursts tends to be highly erratic. There are two components necessary to successfully trade the long side of a bubble. First, it is important to initiate a trade early in the bubble phase. Second, since bubbles are prone to abrupt, sharp downside reversals, it is critical that the long-biased position is structured so that the worst-case loss is limited.
https://keanchan.com/2016/12/06/inves...
Jamie Mai, Cornwall Capital
* Cheap optionality on special situations where the likely outcome is bi-modal but option prices still incorporate normal probability assumptions. Compounded benefits from (1) low recent volality & (2) long dated options that implies continued low vocality & in environment of (3) low i/r
* A good trader cuts loss when he is wrong, a great trader will reverse his trade
Michael Platt, BlueCrest
* I like to know what the consensus view is because you really do make the most money when the consensus shifts. Not just important to be right, need to be non consensus as well.
Right & Consensus: small gain, it’s in the price Right & Non Consensus: large gains but difficult
Wrong & Consensus: big loss when consensus shifts Wrong & Non Consensus: career risk
* It’s amazing how much information you can get about people’s positions by simply asking them about their opinions
* Stop loss + time stop: if a trade does not work within a reasonable amount of time, Platt will just liquidate rather than give it room to his original stop point
* When I am wrong, the only instinct I have is to get out. If I was thinking one way, and now I can see that it was a real mistake, then I am probably not the only person in shock, so I better be the first one to sell. I don’t care what the price is. If I enter a trade, and the minute I put it on, I feel uncomfortable, I will just turn around and get right out.
* Losing money is what kills you. It is not the actual loss. It’s the fact that it messes up your psychology. You lose the bullets in your gun. What happens is you put on a stupid trade, lose $20 million in 10 minutes, and take the trade off. You feel like an idiot, and you’re not in the mood to put on anything else. Then the elephant walks past you while your gun’s not loaded.
Steve Clark, Omni Partners
* Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. Dissect your P&L and see what works for you and what doesn’t.
* It is the size of the position you put on rather than the price at which you put it on that determines your ability to keep the position. Price is irrelevant; it is size that kills you. If you are too big in an illiquid stock, there is no way out. I wanted to cut the position, but I couldn’t. The other lesson this trade taught me is to focus on what works. Although traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade, in reality, the entry size is more important than the entry price because if the size is right, you are much more likely to stay with a winning trade.
* “If you wake up thinking about a position, it’s too big” - Steve Clark
* Your own views on the fundamentals of a story are totally irrelevant. What you have to do is gauge what the market thinks of the story
* You don’t want to be sitting in front of your screen and staring at market prices for 12 hours a day. Staring at the price is not going to tell you very much
* Adjust position size in response to the changing market environment. If the market volatility increases dramatically, traders need to reduce their normal exposure levels correspondingly, or else their risk will dramatically increase. In 2008, Clark reduced his exposure levels by 75 percent in response to sharply increased volatility.
* “Your job as a trader is to make the [P&L] line go from bottom left to top right. That’s it. If the line goes down too much or too long, you were wrong. You can’t argue that the market is wrong because it is your job to predict every move in the market. You had managers in 2008 who lost 50%, and in some cases even as much as 80%. Why? Because they couldn’t accept they were wrong. They keep doing the math, and they kept saying they were right. They missed the point. Their math might have been right, but their job isn’t to do the math; their job is to trade what is in front of them. You had guys saying they were right, the market was wrong, and that they had billions of dollars of embedded value in their portfolio. Their job isn’t to create billions of dollars of embedded value; their job is to make the line go from bottom left to top right. Once you understand that is your job as a trader, you have to start protecting the direction of the line.
Martin Taylor, Nevsky Capital now Crake Asset Mgmt
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...
* There are multiple requirements for a trade to take place. Do we like the company? Is it cheap? Does it generate cash flow? Do we trust the management? Do I have confidence in my projections? Is the macro outlook favorable?
* 3 basics checkboxes: (1) favorable macro situation, (2) secular trend, and (3) good company management. H0: can this be a 100x?
* Where’s the edge? Invest in companies that are cheap relative to their sector, but where we are forecasting earnings above consensus for the next few years. The catalyst I monitor for a stock to realize value is earnings surprise.
* You have to be an expert in what you invest in. You need to understand why you are invested. If you don’t understand why you are in a trade, you won’t understand when it is the right time to sell, which means you will only sell when the price action scares you. Most of the time when price action scares you, it is a buying opportunity, not a sell indicator.
* The best opportunities are those where you can identify a potential trend that the market does not appreciate because it is extrapolating history instead of looking forward.
* I will first look at the chart before putting on a position. If the stock is very overbought, it won’t stop me from buying, but I will start with a small position because there is a larger chance of a correction. If instead I put on the entire position and then the stock had a large correction, I would feel terrible. Say I really like a company and want to put 10 percent of the portfolio in it. If the stock is extremely overbought, then I might start with only a 1 percent position. If the stock just keeps on going up, then I am happy that I bought at least some. I will also be more willing to buy more because I bought part of the position at a lower price. Whereas, if I didn’t initially buy anything because the stock was overbought, I would then never buy any of it, which would be a dreadful mistake.
* I decide to buy a stock based on fundamentals and then look at the chart and see that it has massively underperformed relative to the market, I will check who has been selling the stock. Such price weakness might indicate that all our fundamental research is worthless because management has lied to us.
* If I am bullish on a stock but don’t have a full position, and then the stock breaks out on the chart, I will then go to a full position because the breakout confirms that the market is now seeing the same thing I am seeing.
* Investors often miss the best stocks because they can’t bring themselves to buy a stock that has already gone up a lot. What matters is not how much a stock has qone up, but rather how well a stock is priced relative to its future prospects.
* If right then positive earnings surprises during the next few years. If we get it wrong, we get out immediately. You just have to be pragmatic. When you get it wrong, you need to get out immediately. I am wrong all the time. If I can be right 60 percent of the time, and when I am right I have some big winners, and when I am wrong, I staunch the losses quickly, I can make a lot of money.
* Normally, if I like something, I stick with it. I consider my pattern of taking quick profits in 2009 a dreadful error that I think came about because I had lost a degree of confidence due to experiencing my first down year in 2008, even though the loss was consistent with the expected loss given the magnitude of the market decline.
* Accept volatility: for investors with a long-term perspective, a constraint of keeping monthly losses below some moderate threshold could be detrimental
* Important that your net exposure match your comfort level. For example, if you are uncomfortable being completely out of the market, then a flat position may actually be riskier than a modest long position because you will be much more likely to chase false rallies and get whipsawed.
* Benefits of trading within a net exposure comfort zone: a smaller net exposure may yield better returns, even if the market moves higher. For example, although the market eventually rose to higher levels, by sharply reducing his net long exposure in early January 2008, Taylor was in a position to increase his long exposure following the price plunge later in that month. If he had stayed heavily net long, he might well have been forced to sell into the market weakness to reduce risk. The difference between being a buyer on market weakness instead of a potential seller more than offset the reduced returns implied by a lower net exposure for the period as a whole.
Joe Vidich, Manalapan Oracle Advisers
* Listen for clues on company conference calls. Note also the sentiment: what questions are the analysts asking? What implications does this have for other companies? The supply chain? How did the stock price react to bullish or bearish outlook?
* Scale in/scale out: the next time you're unsure b/w cutting loss & riding it out, remember there's a 3rd alternative: partial liquidation
Kevin Daly, Five Corners Partners
https://sumzero.com/basic/sign_up
* Look for signs of evasiveness in mgmt Q&A
* Patience to stick w/ cash on the sidelines waiting to pounce when opportunities are scarce => timing the market cycles
Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Funds
https://www.gothamfunds.com/default.aspx
https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/va...
March 14, 2015
One of the best book with interviews with top hedge fund managers, absolute stars in achieving extraordinary results over many years. There are many histories, anecdotes and advice and lessons you can learn from those wizards, the most important ones in my opinion are the following:
- Find a niche you can specialize in that fits your personality.
- Trade within your comfort zone but try to expand it constantly.
- Be flexible and open to new information and ideas and have courage to change your mind.
- Make sure your trades are good trades i.e. they are triggered according to your plan, even if they lose money.
- If things don’t want to work and you don’t know why, take a break, markets will always be there.
- Trade only when market provides opportunity which should be defined in your trading strategy.
- Don’t look at the screen all day long, avoid action bias and over-trading.
- What is your risk exposure, make sure you know the answer to this question before placing a trade.
- Markets can behave differently in different environments. Be aware of the bigger picture.
-The market doesn’t care about you, control the things you can control.
Greg.Barabas, www.booksfortrading.com
- Find a niche you can specialize in that fits your personality.
- Trade within your comfort zone but try to expand it constantly.
- Be flexible and open to new information and ideas and have courage to change your mind.
- Make sure your trades are good trades i.e. they are triggered according to your plan, even if they lose money.
- If things don’t want to work and you don’t know why, take a break, markets will always be there.
- Trade only when market provides opportunity which should be defined in your trading strategy.
- Don’t look at the screen all day long, avoid action bias and over-trading.
- What is your risk exposure, make sure you know the answer to this question before placing a trade.
- Markets can behave differently in different environments. Be aware of the bigger picture.
-The market doesn’t care about you, control the things you can control.
Greg.Barabas, www.booksfortrading.com
March 29, 2019
*Before Reading Notes*
I’m reading this book because I want to amplify my skills as an investor/money manager and would like to learn any shortcuts I can to integrate into my own systems/models.
*After Reading Summary*
Summed up in three sentences or less, the wisdom of this book is this: Eliminate all emotions when it comes to investing/trading - emotion is different than intuition. Never let your purchase or sales price dictate when and where you get out of or into a position, never, the market doesn't care where you bought or where you sold. Finally, fully leverage the edge of your trading/investing methodology and make it true to who you are.
I’m reading this book because I want to amplify my skills as an investor/money manager and would like to learn any shortcuts I can to integrate into my own systems/models.
*After Reading Summary*
Summed up in three sentences or less, the wisdom of this book is this: Eliminate all emotions when it comes to investing/trading - emotion is different than intuition. Never let your purchase or sales price dictate when and where you get out of or into a position, never, the market doesn't care where you bought or where you sold. Finally, fully leverage the edge of your trading/investing methodology and make it true to who you are.
May 9, 2024
Probably the worst Market Wizard book I've read of Schwager's series. The ones I really was interested in was Ray Dalio and Joel Greenblatt. Stick to the first three and the Unknown Market Wizards. They are much better.
August 30, 2014
Real traders at the top of their field telling it all.
August 14, 2022
I've read several Market Wizards series titles -- all are very good -- but this book is probably the best. Mr. Schwager interviewed several hedge fund managers who describe their analysis methods and processes for taking and leaving investment positions based on market behavior. Some of their responses surprised me.
I found it fascinating how these investment managers hedged risk during the 2008 market downturn and their individual approaches to investing.
As with other books in this series, the author generally avoids jargon and obscure technical terms so the book isn't overly complex. He also summarizes the relevant points at the end of each interview, which is helpful.
Highly recommended.
I found it fascinating how these investment managers hedged risk during the 2008 market downturn and their individual approaches to investing.
As with other books in this series, the author generally avoids jargon and obscure technical terms so the book isn't overly complex. He also summarizes the relevant points at the end of each interview, which is helpful.
Highly recommended.
December 30, 2020
This is yet another classic in the Market Wizards series. Schwager interviews the top HF managers in the world, with a proven track record of low volatility and excess returns, and asks all the right questions. Anybody with an interest in markets can benefit from hearing what these practitioners have to say. These interviews cover a lot of ground; I was thoroughly impressed with the philosophic, strategic, scientific, artistic, and humorous aspects of these traders' anecdotes.
October 6, 2021
Exceptional like the other Market Wizard books. A little look into the minds of the most brilliant people in the industry.
April 29, 2018
See full reveiew at excellentbookreviews.com
- Disclaimer: the German version comes as a trilogy, and I only read the first book about macro strategists, so technically this review only applies to one third of Hedge Fund Market Wizards. -
Trading is easy now. Hundreds of online brokers and trading systems contend for your attention. Each one offers lower transaction fees, more professional analysis tools, better training videos and access to more exotic underlyings than the next. Trading consistently successful, however, is actually pretty hard.
Like its predecessors (Market Wizards, New Market Wizards, and Stock Market Wizards), Hedge Fund Market Wizards, contains a series of interviews with successful traders. Author Jack Schwager, himself a recognized trading expert and fund manager, sat down with some of the top hedge fund managers to discuss their personal background and strategies.
There is a lot more to trading than you would initially think. Some people trade systematically (using an algorithm to decide about trades), some are discretionary (using their intuition). There are trend followers (expecting a momentary trend to continue for some time) and those who expect a trend to revert to the mean. Some analyze fundamental market data, some just look at price charts. And I'm still taking exclusively about traders using a macro strategy, based on global overarching market trends. One key learning of Hedgde Fund Market Wizards is, that trading strategies are something highly personal. A successful strategy will always fit a trader's character. This cannot simply be taught, although many people try to (including Schwager).
...
- Disclaimer: the German version comes as a trilogy, and I only read the first book about macro strategists, so technically this review only applies to one third of Hedge Fund Market Wizards. -
Trading is easy now. Hundreds of online brokers and trading systems contend for your attention. Each one offers lower transaction fees, more professional analysis tools, better training videos and access to more exotic underlyings than the next. Trading consistently successful, however, is actually pretty hard.
Like its predecessors (Market Wizards, New Market Wizards, and Stock Market Wizards), Hedge Fund Market Wizards, contains a series of interviews with successful traders. Author Jack Schwager, himself a recognized trading expert and fund manager, sat down with some of the top hedge fund managers to discuss their personal background and strategies.
There is a lot more to trading than you would initially think. Some people trade systematically (using an algorithm to decide about trades), some are discretionary (using their intuition). There are trend followers (expecting a momentary trend to continue for some time) and those who expect a trend to revert to the mean. Some analyze fundamental market data, some just look at price charts. And I'm still taking exclusively about traders using a macro strategy, based on global overarching market trends. One key learning of Hedgde Fund Market Wizards is, that trading strategies are something highly personal. A successful strategy will always fit a trader's character. This cannot simply be taught, although many people try to (including Schwager).
...
May 27, 2024
I enjoyed listening to different managers of all ages think psychologically and emotionally when it comes to investing. The difference in long term investing and short term trading. One of my favorite takeaways is that past performance means nothing. Instead, focus on managers that have a sound process and philosophy. Performance will follow
November 25, 2014
A good book although some of the more technical stuff was a little beyond me at this point. I did, however really enjoy the Ed Thorpe and Joel Greenblatt. I think if you're an active trader you'd like it even more than I did.
June 14, 2012
If you like the rest of the books in the series you'll like this more modern update. Should be on any traders reference bookshelf.
March 2, 2014
not hugely relevant to how I invest, although the list of the 40 trading lessons in the back of the book can be helpful.
September 4, 2014
great. must read if interested in trading, esp. automated trading.
September 25, 2014
i really liked the booked. there are a lot of advice you can get from different hedge fund managers. they may not be your trading style, but you can adjust the way, it works for you.
May 23, 2016
Schwager has written another Must Read market wizards book. My favorite one yet. If you are interested in capital markets, read this book.
January 9, 2024
Market wizards books are like ordering McDonald's. You already know what you're getting and there's nothing to complain about when it arrives. 5 stars because this is exactly what I expected.
June 3, 2024
Some of the points are definitely useful if you are into investing. I will read this again.
June 23, 2015
Not really useful if you are a fundamental investor.
September 20, 2015
Excellent interview with important hedge fund managers
January 16, 2016
Interviews with some of the best traders and investors in the world highlighting their strategies.
February 15, 2016
a must read for every serious financial pro
January 28, 2022
Great book about stock market investing.
Hedge fund market wizards
Follow the market feeling not your hypothesis
Use trading strategy that works for you
Drop a position if it goes against you
0% mgt
30% carry
Sharpe ratio
Not good in math value investing
Equities qualitative
Analysts and economists have big ego. They think they are never wrong.
Likes people that try to find edge. Know market is always right. Change position if market trades against you. Guy wakes up at 7am sunday in london to take drunks money. Makes $10,000 in am. Always looking for ways to trade against a position.
Bull markets ignore bad news bear markets ignore good news.
Risk management is most important. Even though macro is more fun to talk about.
Stop doing whats not working and do what works.
Good traders are one trick ponys
Obsessive to do one thing 12 hrs per day.
Dont look at positions for 12 hrs per day
Can trade on guts but have rules and stop loss points.
Patience is a great strength for a trader
When your down close positions, go on vacation, wait two weeks when back before jumping back in slowly
The market trades on opinions of facts not facts themselves
Beware of trading on euphoria
If you wake up thinking about position its too big
Good traders change position in a second long or short
Value investing kevin daly
Sell stocks at fair value
Buy stocks at discount to intrinsic value
Zacks compustat
Canadian and usa exchange
Enterprise value to acquire entire business
Low ebitda multiple
Price to free cash flow
Free cash flow can be used to pay dividends, repurchase shares, invest
Find businesses low multiple of fcf
Ebit similar to cap rate
Price tangible book value
Subscription
Wall street journal
Barrons
Wall street transcript
Value investors insight
Value investors club
Thomson reuters
Take profits when stocks reach intrinsic value
Stay in cash when there are no opportunities
Return on tangible capital
40 lessons
1. There is no holy grail of trading
2. Find one trading method that fits your personality
3. Trade within your comfort zone. Limit position size.
4. Flexibility is important. Go up or down change in a second.
5. Need to adapt
6. Don’t confuse winning or losing trades with good or bad trades. Gambles are bad trades even if they make money.
7. Figure out what your best at and focus on those types.
8. Take a break during losses
9. Road to success come from mistakes. Learn from mistakes
10. Wait for high conviction trades.
11. Trade out of perceived opportunity not trying to make money.
12. Importance of doing nothing. If conditions are not right don’t do anything.
13. How a trade is implemented can be more important than trade itself.
14. Trading around a position can be beneficial. Buy and sell one stock. Sell at small profits buy during correction.
15. Position size can be more important than entry size. Trade for bigger probability and smaller for lower prob.
16. Optimal trade size kelly criterion. Half kelly amt
17. Vary market exposure based on opportunities.
18. Maximum loss constrained, unlimited upside with options.
19. Careful investing on euphoria.
20. If you are right side of euphoria scale out of position slowly.
21. Don’t watch market all fay.
22. Risk controls on individual trades. Risk limits. Close stops 0.1%. Close stop at trade inception larger once profits have been established. Loss limit of 3% lose half of portfolio, 3% lose other half.
23. Take partial loss if position goes against you.
24. Wider stop at point you think trade is wrong. Don’t set too close and then reinvest. Trade may be wrong.
25. Constraining monthly losses only good idea if goes with trading strategy. Value investors say stay the course.
26. Diversification can reduce risk significantly. Return to risk 5-1
27. correlations hard to manage.
28. S
29. Markets behave differently in different environments
30. Evaluate how markets respond to news. If bad news has no effect market may boom or vice versa.
31. Stock can be well priced even if up alot. Excellent fundamentals are key.
32. Don’t let entry level affect sell decision.
33. Potential new revenue sources may not show in stock price
34. Value investing works over long term.
35. Efficient market hypothesis not true sometimes overpriced and underpriced.
36. Usually a mistake to change investment decisions to increase investor demand.
Hedge fund market wizards
Follow the market feeling not your hypothesis
Use trading strategy that works for you
Drop a position if it goes against you
0% mgt
30% carry
Sharpe ratio
Not good in math value investing
Equities qualitative
Analysts and economists have big ego. They think they are never wrong.
Likes people that try to find edge. Know market is always right. Change position if market trades against you. Guy wakes up at 7am sunday in london to take drunks money. Makes $10,000 in am. Always looking for ways to trade against a position.
Bull markets ignore bad news bear markets ignore good news.
Risk management is most important. Even though macro is more fun to talk about.
Stop doing whats not working and do what works.
Good traders are one trick ponys
Obsessive to do one thing 12 hrs per day.
Dont look at positions for 12 hrs per day
Can trade on guts but have rules and stop loss points.
Patience is a great strength for a trader
When your down close positions, go on vacation, wait two weeks when back before jumping back in slowly
The market trades on opinions of facts not facts themselves
Beware of trading on euphoria
If you wake up thinking about position its too big
Good traders change position in a second long or short
Value investing kevin daly
Sell stocks at fair value
Buy stocks at discount to intrinsic value
Zacks compustat
Canadian and usa exchange
Enterprise value to acquire entire business
Low ebitda multiple
Price to free cash flow
Free cash flow can be used to pay dividends, repurchase shares, invest
Find businesses low multiple of fcf
Ebit similar to cap rate
Price tangible book value
Subscription
Wall street journal
Barrons
Wall street transcript
Value investors insight
Value investors club
Thomson reuters
Take profits when stocks reach intrinsic value
Stay in cash when there are no opportunities
Return on tangible capital
40 lessons
1. There is no holy grail of trading
2. Find one trading method that fits your personality
3. Trade within your comfort zone. Limit position size.
4. Flexibility is important. Go up or down change in a second.
5. Need to adapt
6. Don’t confuse winning or losing trades with good or bad trades. Gambles are bad trades even if they make money.
7. Figure out what your best at and focus on those types.
8. Take a break during losses
9. Road to success come from mistakes. Learn from mistakes
10. Wait for high conviction trades.
11. Trade out of perceived opportunity not trying to make money.
12. Importance of doing nothing. If conditions are not right don’t do anything.
13. How a trade is implemented can be more important than trade itself.
14. Trading around a position can be beneficial. Buy and sell one stock. Sell at small profits buy during correction.
15. Position size can be more important than entry size. Trade for bigger probability and smaller for lower prob.
16. Optimal trade size kelly criterion. Half kelly amt
17. Vary market exposure based on opportunities.
18. Maximum loss constrained, unlimited upside with options.
19. Careful investing on euphoria.
20. If you are right side of euphoria scale out of position slowly.
21. Don’t watch market all fay.
22. Risk controls on individual trades. Risk limits. Close stops 0.1%. Close stop at trade inception larger once profits have been established. Loss limit of 3% lose half of portfolio, 3% lose other half.
23. Take partial loss if position goes against you.
24. Wider stop at point you think trade is wrong. Don’t set too close and then reinvest. Trade may be wrong.
25. Constraining monthly losses only good idea if goes with trading strategy. Value investors say stay the course.
26. Diversification can reduce risk significantly. Return to risk 5-1
27. correlations hard to manage.
28. S
29. Markets behave differently in different environments
30. Evaluate how markets respond to news. If bad news has no effect market may boom or vice versa.
31. Stock can be well priced even if up alot. Excellent fundamentals are key.
32. Don’t let entry level affect sell decision.
33. Potential new revenue sources may not show in stock price
34. Value investing works over long term.
35. Efficient market hypothesis not true sometimes overpriced and underpriced.
36. Usually a mistake to change investment decisions to increase investor demand.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
August 23, 2018
Twenty three years after the first Market Wizard book Jack Schwager, hedge fund PM, derivatives expert and author, again serves us a brimming smorgasbord of unforgettable characters in this fourth book in the series. Trading legend Ed Seykota says in his foreword that the previous books in the series stand next to LeBon’s The Crowd, Levère’s Reminiscence of a Stock Operator and MacKay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds in his bookshelf. This forth book will not disappoint anyone who enjoyed the previous ones. The structure is the same, Schwager interviews the best money fund mangers’ around and gets them to share their insights. Why change a winning concept?
It is truly a privilege to get to know these traders. Because, that’s exactly what the reader will do. Schwager seems to be perfectly comfortable discussing almost any nuances in any investment style imaginable and where the previous books clearly featured interviews with Wizards, this one rather presents discussions between equals. The author asks about everything from personal background and motivation to process and strategy. Compared to previous books, and with the 2008 financial crisis in fresh memory, more effort goes into discussing risk management than before. Follow up questions and examples give further granularity and most of those interviewed – save one or two systematic traders - share graciously. All through the book there are insertions explaining the more exotic derivatives, various market events and other topics that enable the reader to follow the conversations.
For his books Schwager seeks traders with exceptional long term track records of high returns and low risk and who on top of this is willing to share what they do. As so many traders today have been inspired by the previous Market Wizards books it is evident that most of those included in this book think it an honour to be asked to participate. They become participants in a continuous process, a sort of family chronicle, where they can inspire future traders. All 15 traders have totally different ways of making money. This breadth means that there is something for everyone, but more than once you also find a nugget served by a person with totally different investment style from yourself. You pick up an idea on risk management, on how to use options in certain situations etc. The ideas just have to be adjusted to fit what you do.
There are loads of interesting persons featured but the chapter on Ed Thorpe is impossible to stop reading and leaves you speechless when you’re done. Schwager himself ranks Thorpe a shared number one with Jim Simmons with regards to having the best investment track record of all times. All readers will find their own favourite parts. I very much appreciated Ray Dalios thoughts on correlations, Colm O’Shea’s notion of looking at trading positions as hypotheses that the market action verifies or falsifies, the concept of a LIBOR/OIS-spread was new to me and most of what Joel Greenblatt says is exactly what I would wish to accomplish.
The book is divided into three parts: a) Macro Men, b) Multistrategy Players and c) Equity Traders. Even if Schwager does a brilliant job interviewing any type of investors I would argue that he personally is less interested in the last category of investing and to some extent this shines through. The writing is easy to read despite the fact that the writer doesn’t shy away from some fairly esoteric topics. This makes the book suitable for anyone from the veteran pro to the (almost) beginner. A sympathetic feature of this latest book is that Schwager’s son Zachary appears as a trading assistant to one of the Wizards. This adds to the feeling of a family chronicle. Zachary also writes an epilogue to the book. To top things off Schwager concludes the book with his top 40 Market Wizard lessons. These are rules all of us should think very long and hard about.
This book is a must have for any trader, but it is on top of that an important book for anyone wanting to understand financial markets better.
It is truly a privilege to get to know these traders. Because, that’s exactly what the reader will do. Schwager seems to be perfectly comfortable discussing almost any nuances in any investment style imaginable and where the previous books clearly featured interviews with Wizards, this one rather presents discussions between equals. The author asks about everything from personal background and motivation to process and strategy. Compared to previous books, and with the 2008 financial crisis in fresh memory, more effort goes into discussing risk management than before. Follow up questions and examples give further granularity and most of those interviewed – save one or two systematic traders - share graciously. All through the book there are insertions explaining the more exotic derivatives, various market events and other topics that enable the reader to follow the conversations.
For his books Schwager seeks traders with exceptional long term track records of high returns and low risk and who on top of this is willing to share what they do. As so many traders today have been inspired by the previous Market Wizards books it is evident that most of those included in this book think it an honour to be asked to participate. They become participants in a continuous process, a sort of family chronicle, where they can inspire future traders. All 15 traders have totally different ways of making money. This breadth means that there is something for everyone, but more than once you also find a nugget served by a person with totally different investment style from yourself. You pick up an idea on risk management, on how to use options in certain situations etc. The ideas just have to be adjusted to fit what you do.
There are loads of interesting persons featured but the chapter on Ed Thorpe is impossible to stop reading and leaves you speechless when you’re done. Schwager himself ranks Thorpe a shared number one with Jim Simmons with regards to having the best investment track record of all times. All readers will find their own favourite parts. I very much appreciated Ray Dalios thoughts on correlations, Colm O’Shea’s notion of looking at trading positions as hypotheses that the market action verifies or falsifies, the concept of a LIBOR/OIS-spread was new to me and most of what Joel Greenblatt says is exactly what I would wish to accomplish.
The book is divided into three parts: a) Macro Men, b) Multistrategy Players and c) Equity Traders. Even if Schwager does a brilliant job interviewing any type of investors I would argue that he personally is less interested in the last category of investing and to some extent this shines through. The writing is easy to read despite the fact that the writer doesn’t shy away from some fairly esoteric topics. This makes the book suitable for anyone from the veteran pro to the (almost) beginner. A sympathetic feature of this latest book is that Schwager’s son Zachary appears as a trading assistant to one of the Wizards. This adds to the feeling of a family chronicle. Zachary also writes an epilogue to the book. To top things off Schwager concludes the book with his top 40 Market Wizard lessons. These are rules all of us should think very long and hard about.
This book is a must have for any trader, but it is on top of that an important book for anyone wanting to understand financial markets better.
September 17, 2024
As an Audiobook 1.8/5
This sounds like a total boomer convention, what a bunch of fucking losers lol
These people are completely cringe, very eye opening, my biggest takeaway is that Hedge Fund Managers are complete morons. So now you are a "Wizard" if you make 14% in your best year ever, in a year where the SP did 8%?!?
These people sound like MSNBC talking heads, with "ideas" and a "thesis". Now I understand why Qullamaggie and other great traders have no respect for these people. They are literally a bunch of boomers talking about the GFC and "their big moves" back in the day. It's embarrassing, honestly. They are like that drunk uncle at a birthday party.
One guy literally says that price action is useless, that you have to look at the macros when trading hahaha So you are supposed to make decisions based on what 8 billion people "might or might not do" in the future, instead of just looking at the supply and demand of the asset right now?!?!? What a bunch of fucking geniuses...
Make sure to hold on to your yearly 3% gains ... You pragmatic down to earth thinkers... These people are clearly not good traders, they are good salesman and storytellers.
What a disappointment of a book frankly, these Managers are simply in the position that they are in because they have Industry connections from back in the day, that's a clear key takeaway from the book, you notice it by simply reading between the lines when they tell their stories, there is always a hint of "Company politics".
They all started at this or that desk on a well known Investment bank, they then used their "impresive track record" but not in trading, no, it's an impressive track record in sticking around at known brands in the Investment sector, which makes the average allocator think that if the guy has worked at Goldman for a long time he must know what he's doing. It's the same principle as the obsession with Ivy leagues. There is little to no correlation to actual good results.
Meanwhile, Qullamaggie turns 5k into 120 million in 8 years while sitting in his moms basement in underwear. Why is he not being interviewed? Because he's not in the bullshitting business, good traders make too much money on their own. They don't need to sell anybody on a story.
There's no need for them to participate in the "Prestige Economy" and all the drama and complexity that comes with it.
That is the truth. These are not people like Minervini or some of the other great Market Wizards in the saga that I have enjoyed thoroughly and learned a lot from. It has been very eye-opening.
Sure, they might make more money because of the large accounts they manage, but not because of good trading.
Before anybody says my criticism is just jelousy, I will say, yes, they obviously have to allocate bigger volumes, which will affect their performance, still there is no excuse for average performances that are that low.
The only good takeaway I can think of is that they have very good money management.
It's mind-blowing that people who are this clueless and incompetent get to manage billions of dollars based on something that can be only defined as esoteric hear/say gambling 🤣🤣
The best thing that has come from reading this book has been to be able to write this detailed review shitting on it.
This sounds like a total boomer convention, what a bunch of fucking losers lol
These people are completely cringe, very eye opening, my biggest takeaway is that Hedge Fund Managers are complete morons. So now you are a "Wizard" if you make 14% in your best year ever, in a year where the SP did 8%?!?
These people sound like MSNBC talking heads, with "ideas" and a "thesis". Now I understand why Qullamaggie and other great traders have no respect for these people. They are literally a bunch of boomers talking about the GFC and "their big moves" back in the day. It's embarrassing, honestly. They are like that drunk uncle at a birthday party.
One guy literally says that price action is useless, that you have to look at the macros when trading hahaha So you are supposed to make decisions based on what 8 billion people "might or might not do" in the future, instead of just looking at the supply and demand of the asset right now?!?!? What a bunch of fucking geniuses...
Make sure to hold on to your yearly 3% gains ... You pragmatic down to earth thinkers... These people are clearly not good traders, they are good salesman and storytellers.
What a disappointment of a book frankly, these Managers are simply in the position that they are in because they have Industry connections from back in the day, that's a clear key takeaway from the book, you notice it by simply reading between the lines when they tell their stories, there is always a hint of "Company politics".
They all started at this or that desk on a well known Investment bank, they then used their "impresive track record" but not in trading, no, it's an impressive track record in sticking around at known brands in the Investment sector, which makes the average allocator think that if the guy has worked at Goldman for a long time he must know what he's doing. It's the same principle as the obsession with Ivy leagues. There is little to no correlation to actual good results.
Meanwhile, Qullamaggie turns 5k into 120 million in 8 years while sitting in his moms basement in underwear. Why is he not being interviewed? Because he's not in the bullshitting business, good traders make too much money on their own. They don't need to sell anybody on a story.
There's no need for them to participate in the "Prestige Economy" and all the drama and complexity that comes with it.
That is the truth. These are not people like Minervini or some of the other great Market Wizards in the saga that I have enjoyed thoroughly and learned a lot from. It has been very eye-opening.
Sure, they might make more money because of the large accounts they manage, but not because of good trading.
Before anybody says my criticism is just jelousy, I will say, yes, they obviously have to allocate bigger volumes, which will affect their performance, still there is no excuse for average performances that are that low.
The only good takeaway I can think of is that they have very good money management.
It's mind-blowing that people who are this clueless and incompetent get to manage billions of dollars based on something that can be only defined as esoteric hear/say gambling 🤣🤣
The best thing that has come from reading this book has been to be able to write this detailed review shitting on it.
February 9, 2019
This book is probably best served for those who have had a few months of basic trading experience at least. Reading it now twice, very little of the first read stuck, outside of the interviews of Jamie Mai (of Jamie fams from the Big Short) and Ed Thorpe, and those two only stuck cause of interest developed prior to reading this book.
A series of over a dozen interviews, mostly with traders practising a combination of Fundamental / Technical, and virtually no algorithmic perspective outside of Thorpe and one other person. If one hasn't done much trading on their own account, a lot of the interviews will probably pass through one's memory, as much of the interviews are really specific and most of the book cannot be cohesively put under one or two themes. More like a dozen or more themes, making retention without concrete experience difficult.
A lot of the interviews are something like the following: Schwagger asks the interviewee about why they did (or did not move) on information on a trade. The interviewee then says something along the lines of 'I don't consider my entry price when thinking of my exit' then goes into detail of how that applied to his specific example, or they may say something about volatility not being risk, and they did their due diligence on the fundamentals, still yet, some may agree that the fundamentals pointed towards one direction, but that gains can always be made if one plays off of technical movements given those fundamentals. Thus the inexperienced reader will more than a few contradictory statements across the dozen or more interviews.
This confusion is often explained as not so much inconsistency across techniques and views, but as different time horizons of operations. Whatever the case, it's thankful that the traders with the simplest strategies are mostly at the beginning of the book, to ease one in. Many of those will reduce to some variation of the mean-reversion perspective justifying contrary moves.
From the historical perspective, the most interesting nugget came out of Thorpe, who explained how he is connected (or not) to the Eudaemons group of UC Santa Cruz, as well as his opinion on their physics-based approach of Roulette. Though much of that interview is redundant for those who read Thorpe's book or Proudmore's book.
The best lead from this book is probably from the last chapter, with the interview from Joel Greenblat, who practices a type of Graham-style special situation strategy. The interview was good enough that I bought Graham's security analysis to go through, as Greenblat claims (at least circa 2011) the principles outlined still are valid from an automation perspective.
Which comes to another potential issue of the book, it is now 7 years old, and although that wasn't too long ago, much of the events the interviews discussed range from the 1980s to the early 2000s, and they're all taking for granted the economic/political/business events they are discussing were common-notion to the reader, which may not actually be the case.
Conditional recommend only for those who have started to actively trade for at least a few months. Pass otherwise
A series of over a dozen interviews, mostly with traders practising a combination of Fundamental / Technical, and virtually no algorithmic perspective outside of Thorpe and one other person. If one hasn't done much trading on their own account, a lot of the interviews will probably pass through one's memory, as much of the interviews are really specific and most of the book cannot be cohesively put under one or two themes. More like a dozen or more themes, making retention without concrete experience difficult.
A lot of the interviews are something like the following: Schwagger asks the interviewee about why they did (or did not move) on information on a trade. The interviewee then says something along the lines of 'I don't consider my entry price when thinking of my exit' then goes into detail of how that applied to his specific example, or they may say something about volatility not being risk, and they did their due diligence on the fundamentals, still yet, some may agree that the fundamentals pointed towards one direction, but that gains can always be made if one plays off of technical movements given those fundamentals. Thus the inexperienced reader will more than a few contradictory statements across the dozen or more interviews.
This confusion is often explained as not so much inconsistency across techniques and views, but as different time horizons of operations. Whatever the case, it's thankful that the traders with the simplest strategies are mostly at the beginning of the book, to ease one in. Many of those will reduce to some variation of the mean-reversion perspective justifying contrary moves.
From the historical perspective, the most interesting nugget came out of Thorpe, who explained how he is connected (or not) to the Eudaemons group of UC Santa Cruz, as well as his opinion on their physics-based approach of Roulette. Though much of that interview is redundant for those who read Thorpe's book or Proudmore's book.
The best lead from this book is probably from the last chapter, with the interview from Joel Greenblat, who practices a type of Graham-style special situation strategy. The interview was good enough that I bought Graham's security analysis to go through, as Greenblat claims (at least circa 2011) the principles outlined still are valid from an automation perspective.
Which comes to another potential issue of the book, it is now 7 years old, and although that wasn't too long ago, much of the events the interviews discussed range from the 1980s to the early 2000s, and they're all taking for granted the economic/political/business events they are discussing were common-notion to the reader, which may not actually be the case.
Conditional recommend only for those who have started to actively trade for at least a few months. Pass otherwise
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