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Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most
The hardest choices are also the most consequential. So why do we know so little about how to get them right?
Big, life-altering decisions matter so much more than the decisions we make every day, and they're also the most difficult: where to live, whom to marry, what to believe, whether to start a company, how to end a war. There's no one-size-fits-all approach for addressing these kinds of conundrums.
Steven Johnson's classic Where Good Ideas Come From inspired creative people all over the world with new ways of thinking about innovation. In Farsighted, he uncovers powerful tools for honing the important skill of complex decision-making. While you can't model a once-in-a-lifetime choice, you can model the deliberative tactics of expert decision-makers. These experts aren't just the master strategists running major companies or negotiating high-level diplomacy. They're the novelists who draw out the complexity of their characters' inner lives, the city officials who secure long-term water supplies, and the scientists who reckon with future challenges most of us haven't even imagined. The smartest decision-makers don't go with their guts. Their success relies on having a future-oriented approach and the ability to consider all their options in a creative, productive way.
Through compelling stories that reveal surprising insights, Johnson explains how we can most effectively approach the choices that can chart the course of a life, an organization, or a civilization. Farsighted will help you imagine your possible futures and appreciate the subtle intelligence of the choices that shaped our broader social history.
Big, life-altering decisions matter so much more than the decisions we make every day, and they're also the most difficult: where to live, whom to marry, what to believe, whether to start a company, how to end a war. There's no one-size-fits-all approach for addressing these kinds of conundrums.
Steven Johnson's classic Where Good Ideas Come From inspired creative people all over the world with new ways of thinking about innovation. In Farsighted, he uncovers powerful tools for honing the important skill of complex decision-making. While you can't model a once-in-a-lifetime choice, you can model the deliberative tactics of expert decision-makers. These experts aren't just the master strategists running major companies or negotiating high-level diplomacy. They're the novelists who draw out the complexity of their characters' inner lives, the city officials who secure long-term water supplies, and the scientists who reckon with future challenges most of us haven't even imagined. The smartest decision-makers don't go with their guts. Their success relies on having a future-oriented approach and the ability to consider all their options in a creative, productive way.
Through compelling stories that reveal surprising insights, Johnson explains how we can most effectively approach the choices that can chart the course of a life, an organization, or a civilization. Farsighted will help you imagine your possible futures and appreciate the subtle intelligence of the choices that shaped our broader social history.
256 pages, Hardcover
First published September 4, 2018
About the author
Steven Johnson
58 books1,796 followersSteven Johnson is the bestselling author of twelve books, including Enemy of All Mankind, Farsighted, Wonderland, How We Got to Now, Where Good Ideas Come From, The Invention of Air, The Ghost Map, and Everything Bad Is Good for You.
He's the host of the podcast American Innovations, and the host and co-creator of the PBS and BBC series How We Got to Now. Johnson lives in Marin County, California, and Brooklyn, New York, with his wife and three sons.
He's the host of the podcast American Innovations, and the host and co-creator of the PBS and BBC series How We Got to Now. Johnson lives in Marin County, California, and Brooklyn, New York, with his wife and three sons.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 259 reviews
May 5, 2019
I am a big fan of Steven Johnson and was really excited to see he was digging into decision making. The first three chapters are 5 stars and typical of Johnson's excellent story telling. Those chapters detail the process of long term decision making 1. Mapping 2. Predicting 3. Deciding. They come to life with stories of major decisions (Bin Laden raid, Collect Pond). The book kind of falls apart on the back 9. Johnson tries to show how to use these techniques in different decisions. He goes super macro about decision related to climate change and alien life, then he goes micro about his family moving across the country. There's a gulf of decisions in between those two extremes. The book finishes with a summary of George Eliot's Middlemarch and a big call to action to read literary fiction to help your decision making. Sure it was interesting but the connection to the decision making process was tenuous.
Read the first three chapters, skim or drop the last two.
Edit: I took Johnson's advice on reading literary fiction with an eye toward improving decision making and I can see literary fiction is an excellent way to simulate difficult decisions. But those chapters in this book still were not as interesting as the first 3 chapters of this book.
Read the first three chapters, skim or drop the last two.
Edit: I took Johnson's advice on reading literary fiction with an eye toward improving decision making and I can see literary fiction is an excellent way to simulate difficult decisions. But those chapters in this book still were not as interesting as the first 3 chapters of this book.
October 12, 2018
There are some interesting points here, but many of them were laid out in Superforcasting and other behavioral econ books. There is a lot to learn here about that science (if you are new to it), but I didn't gain any insight at all into "How to make the decisions that matter the most." Besides maybe--read more novels?
February 13, 2020
Gibberish. I don't know (or care) about the military history of Long Island (which the author focuses on), but I know about public health history and what the author says about that is dangerously wrong. He claims (p.93) that we know that smoking causes lung cancer because Sir Austin Bradford Hill did a randomized control trial. Just stop and think about that.
That would mean that Dr. Hill took a 100,000 people, got a random 50,000 of them to smoke for fifty years and then got the other 50,000 not to smoke for fifty years. That's insane. And that's very different from what Dr. Hill did do to figure out that smoking causes cancer.
This matters because it is critically important to understand causality for this topic of decision-making. It helps a lot to know what causes problems if you want to do something about them. Figuring out the smoking thing has been super useful for addressing the lung cancer pandemic.
The author offers no reference for his lunatic statement, so I can't check his source.
It's hard work, but one of the keys to making good decisions is to look up facts and then start with reality.
That would mean that Dr. Hill took a 100,000 people, got a random 50,000 of them to smoke for fifty years and then got the other 50,000 not to smoke for fifty years. That's insane. And that's very different from what Dr. Hill did do to figure out that smoking causes cancer.
This matters because it is critically important to understand causality for this topic of decision-making. It helps a lot to know what causes problems if you want to do something about them. Figuring out the smoking thing has been super useful for addressing the lung cancer pandemic.
The author offers no reference for his lunatic statement, so I can't check his source.
It's hard work, but one of the keys to making good decisions is to look up facts and then start with reality.
September 16, 2018
Nothing new
This book was recommended by The Economist as offering new insights. The book is a pleasant and entertaining read by anecdotes, but fails to offer new or even deeper insights for sound farsighted decision makng. Of course, I am writing this living in the Netherlands which has quite a good track record of sound farsighted policy decision making in the public sphere and is home to e.g. Shell, known for its scenario planning and Philips Electronics known for technological forecasting. The book does not offer anything new, it is a rumination of aspects and dimensions all well known in decision theory. The role of futurological thinking is touched upon, but lacks elaboration. The book touches upon the role of ideology in farsightedness, that is what society do we want ultimately, and what is underlying the success of CEOs successful in long term sustainable value creation, but it is not elaborated. As the philosopher Popper wrote, decisions pertain to facts, but are decided by values, could have been emphasized stronger. Missing in the book are the tools for making decisions in complex situations, abstract thinking, reconceptualizing based on a high conceptual complexity and thus defining new models, although the book touches on the latter. The book deals with making complex decisions, which is something different from making decisions in complex situations, but fails to mention Herbert Simon’s insight that what are perceived to be complex problems in the first place results from lack of sufficient broad knowledge.
This book was recommended by The Economist as offering new insights. The book is a pleasant and entertaining read by anecdotes, but fails to offer new or even deeper insights for sound farsighted decision makng. Of course, I am writing this living in the Netherlands which has quite a good track record of sound farsighted policy decision making in the public sphere and is home to e.g. Shell, known for its scenario planning and Philips Electronics known for technological forecasting. The book does not offer anything new, it is a rumination of aspects and dimensions all well known in decision theory. The role of futurological thinking is touched upon, but lacks elaboration. The book touches upon the role of ideology in farsightedness, that is what society do we want ultimately, and what is underlying the success of CEOs successful in long term sustainable value creation, but it is not elaborated. As the philosopher Popper wrote, decisions pertain to facts, but are decided by values, could have been emphasized stronger. Missing in the book are the tools for making decisions in complex situations, abstract thinking, reconceptualizing based on a high conceptual complexity and thus defining new models, although the book touches on the latter. The book deals with making complex decisions, which is something different from making decisions in complex situations, but fails to mention Herbert Simon’s insight that what are perceived to be complex problems in the first place results from lack of sufficient broad knowledge.
March 1, 2018
Taking methodology from Ben Franklin's moral algebra, Isaiah Berlin’s fox and Hedgehog philosophy, Darwin’s consideration to get married, Washington’s pivotal loss of NY/the war, to Obama’s plan to successfully take down Osama bin Laden- all of these leaders in success used foresight to make successful decisions
By examining how we changed from social understanding to simulation strategy we gain successful foresight.
How we think about data, like in an algebraic equations, help advance medical outcomes and success to how we forecast weather productions.
We can use the same planning for any complex decision with an unknown future: planning a garden, moving the the suburbs, environmental activism...
Simply start by giving yourself a minimum of three options: get better, get worse, get weird. Simply considering your options helps offset the fallacy of exploration.
Excerpt:
To make successful decisions, you need to have a better-than-chance understanding of where the paths you're choosing between are going to take you. You can't be farsighted if the road ahead is blurry.
Are there fields where we have made meaningful advances in predicting the future behavior of complex systems, not just incremental improvements of the superforecasters? And if so, can we learn something from their success?
Galley borrowed from the publisher
By examining how we changed from social understanding to simulation strategy we gain successful foresight.
How we think about data, like in an algebraic equations, help advance medical outcomes and success to how we forecast weather productions.
We can use the same planning for any complex decision with an unknown future: planning a garden, moving the the suburbs, environmental activism...
Simply start by giving yourself a minimum of three options: get better, get worse, get weird. Simply considering your options helps offset the fallacy of exploration.
Excerpt:
To make successful decisions, you need to have a better-than-chance understanding of where the paths you're choosing between are going to take you. You can't be farsighted if the road ahead is blurry.
Are there fields where we have made meaningful advances in predicting the future behavior of complex systems, not just incremental improvements of the superforecasters? And if so, can we learn something from their success?
Galley borrowed from the publisher
December 23, 2018
Making complex, multifaceted decisions can seem almost impossible, and even relatively simple ones, like choosing from a Chinese restaurant menu, can be difficult. I found Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most to be a well-written and enlightening overview, and I enjoyed listening to it.
Steven Johnson talked too much, I thought, about decisions that have no practical significance to living human beings, as though the issue of whether to send radio broadcasts into deep space to inform other possible civilizations of our existence is vitally important. Stephen Hawking was strongly against it because he and others apparently felt that the receiving civilization might decide to come and obliterate us. Given a minimum time for the transmission to arrive at the closest possible galaxy, traveling at the speed of light, of 100,000 years, let alone the time to get back to us, this all seemed a bit silly.
Steven Johnson talked too much, I thought, about decisions that have no practical significance to living human beings, as though the issue of whether to send radio broadcasts into deep space to inform other possible civilizations of our existence is vitally important. Stephen Hawking was strongly against it because he and others apparently felt that the receiving civilization might decide to come and obliterate us. Given a minimum time for the transmission to arrive at the closest possible galaxy, traveling at the speed of light, of 100,000 years, let alone the time to get back to us, this all seemed a bit silly.
October 13, 2018
You have thousands of decisions still to be made in your lifetime. Some small, some large. The scariest ones are the big ones. Their implications are vast, and cascade over into every aspect of your life.
And yet, you haven't been taught how to make big decisions well. Not in a systematic fashion. Not in school, not at work, not at home. You're sometimes told to "just go with your gut." In other words, using system 1 (from Daniel Kahnemann's "Thinking Fast and Slow") for decisions that really should be refined with a system 2 lens - a slower, methodical thinking process.
If you want to learn a framework that can help you and your team (whether it's your family, friends, or your squad at work) grapple with long-term decision making that incorporates many variables and possibilities, this book is INCREDIBLY useful. It provides you with a 3-step process, along with various tips & tricks at each step. The examples and stories Johnson draws his inspiration from are varied and vivid: from the decision-making process used to capture Osama Bin Laden, to the author's personal process to decide whether to move to California, and the system Darwin used to decide to get married.
Very few authors are able to distill key insights from different disciplines and tie them together with supporting stories coherently in a narrative that is informative, entertaining, and persuasive. After listening to Steven Johnson's "Wonderland" podcast, I knew that he was one of the best in the world at doing it. And if you decide to read Farsighted and improve your ability to make decisions by adopting "full-spectrum thinking", you'll see what I mean.
Below is my high-level preview of what you can expect to learn in this book.
The primary framework outlined by Johnson consists of 3 steps: Map, Predict, Decide.
Map:
This is when you're trying to get an idea of what the territory looks like by building a metaphorical map of the decision. This includes writing down the variables that you're facing, the people that can help you, what the end goal is, and the possible outcomes. A major tool you have your disposal in this step of the process is divergence. In other words, you need to build a (formal or informal) team to help you make your decision and get various opinions. Johnson cites plenty of evidence to show that intellectually diverse teams make better decisions than homogenous ones.
It's also important at this stage to consider that the "menu" of choices you think you have, might not be complete. Take long walks and talk to your squad about hidden choices that you hadn't considered.
Predict:
This is when you look at the (updated) menu of choices you have at your disposal, and attempt to predict where each one may lead you. A powerful mental modeling exercise Johnson shares here is the "premortem", which you're likely familiar with if you've read Kahnemann already. The idea is to imagine that your choice(s) will lead to a disaster. Think about what those possible disasters are, and how your decisions may lead you there. That way, you can cover some of your blind spots and prepare. A useful way to do this is to build a "red team", where you find people to oppose you at every step of the way and tell you the downsides of every choice you're considering - so that you can see the full spectrum of possibilities involved in the possible paths your decision can take you.
Another major mental model Johnson dives into here is the idea of building simulations, in whatever way you can. Simulate your decisions before actually committing to any of them. This can be done vicariously, and can even be fictional - which is the value of novels. By seeing how others make decisions and grapple with the complexity of life, we become more prepared to make our own. A more grounded example of a simulation would be the following: if you're interested in a certain career path, go job shadow your role model for a day. Then you can consider if it's something that you see yourself doing in the future.
Decide:
Finally, you have to decide. This is when you look at the map you've built, the predictions, where things might go wrong along the way, and commit to a course of action. At this point, your gut-thinking is way better than it was before the whole process, because it's taking a lot more information into account, and has simulated many possibilities. It's not a myopic, system 1 decision anymore because you've supplemented it with a deliberate thinking process. He also shares a few techniques that can help here like value-modeling and cost-benefit analysis. It's important to note that if a decision is time-limited, you have to get comfortable making decisions with somewhat incomplete information and roll with the punches.
Final thoughts
As you mature, advance in your career, and build your families, the stakes get bigger and bigger when it comes to the consequences of the decisions you make. And as society evolves, and technology advances, the same applies at a macro scale...with stakes rising exponentially. In order to maximize the probability of favorable outcomes, we need to learn to think more systematically.
If learning The Art & Science of Farsighted Decision-Making is something that appeals to you, hit "Add to Cart." It could be one of the best decisions you'll ever make - one that makes all of your subsequent decisions easier and better.
And yet, you haven't been taught how to make big decisions well. Not in a systematic fashion. Not in school, not at work, not at home. You're sometimes told to "just go with your gut." In other words, using system 1 (from Daniel Kahnemann's "Thinking Fast and Slow") for decisions that really should be refined with a system 2 lens - a slower, methodical thinking process.
If you want to learn a framework that can help you and your team (whether it's your family, friends, or your squad at work) grapple with long-term decision making that incorporates many variables and possibilities, this book is INCREDIBLY useful. It provides you with a 3-step process, along with various tips & tricks at each step. The examples and stories Johnson draws his inspiration from are varied and vivid: from the decision-making process used to capture Osama Bin Laden, to the author's personal process to decide whether to move to California, and the system Darwin used to decide to get married.
Very few authors are able to distill key insights from different disciplines and tie them together with supporting stories coherently in a narrative that is informative, entertaining, and persuasive. After listening to Steven Johnson's "Wonderland" podcast, I knew that he was one of the best in the world at doing it. And if you decide to read Farsighted and improve your ability to make decisions by adopting "full-spectrum thinking", you'll see what I mean.
Below is my high-level preview of what you can expect to learn in this book.
The primary framework outlined by Johnson consists of 3 steps: Map, Predict, Decide.
Map:
This is when you're trying to get an idea of what the territory looks like by building a metaphorical map of the decision. This includes writing down the variables that you're facing, the people that can help you, what the end goal is, and the possible outcomes. A major tool you have your disposal in this step of the process is divergence. In other words, you need to build a (formal or informal) team to help you make your decision and get various opinions. Johnson cites plenty of evidence to show that intellectually diverse teams make better decisions than homogenous ones.
It's also important at this stage to consider that the "menu" of choices you think you have, might not be complete. Take long walks and talk to your squad about hidden choices that you hadn't considered.
Predict:
This is when you look at the (updated) menu of choices you have at your disposal, and attempt to predict where each one may lead you. A powerful mental modeling exercise Johnson shares here is the "premortem", which you're likely familiar with if you've read Kahnemann already. The idea is to imagine that your choice(s) will lead to a disaster. Think about what those possible disasters are, and how your decisions may lead you there. That way, you can cover some of your blind spots and prepare. A useful way to do this is to build a "red team", where you find people to oppose you at every step of the way and tell you the downsides of every choice you're considering - so that you can see the full spectrum of possibilities involved in the possible paths your decision can take you.
Another major mental model Johnson dives into here is the idea of building simulations, in whatever way you can. Simulate your decisions before actually committing to any of them. This can be done vicariously, and can even be fictional - which is the value of novels. By seeing how others make decisions and grapple with the complexity of life, we become more prepared to make our own. A more grounded example of a simulation would be the following: if you're interested in a certain career path, go job shadow your role model for a day. Then you can consider if it's something that you see yourself doing in the future.
Decide:
Finally, you have to decide. This is when you look at the map you've built, the predictions, where things might go wrong along the way, and commit to a course of action. At this point, your gut-thinking is way better than it was before the whole process, because it's taking a lot more information into account, and has simulated many possibilities. It's not a myopic, system 1 decision anymore because you've supplemented it with a deliberate thinking process. He also shares a few techniques that can help here like value-modeling and cost-benefit analysis. It's important to note that if a decision is time-limited, you have to get comfortable making decisions with somewhat incomplete information and roll with the punches.
Final thoughts
As you mature, advance in your career, and build your families, the stakes get bigger and bigger when it comes to the consequences of the decisions you make. And as society evolves, and technology advances, the same applies at a macro scale...with stakes rising exponentially. In order to maximize the probability of favorable outcomes, we need to learn to think more systematically.
If learning The Art & Science of Farsighted Decision-Making is something that appeals to you, hit "Add to Cart." It could be one of the best decisions you'll ever make - one that makes all of your subsequent decisions easier and better.
June 22, 2020
Life is full of decisions; they can be a low impact as to what to eat, which route to take around a town or whether to buy a particular book or not. Other decisions have a much greater impact on our lives, the partner that you want to spend more time within the long term, the place that you choose to live or the path that you take in a career.
We are supposedly living in the age of the shortest attention span, not even being able to read the 280 characters from a tweet before the next notification attracts our attention. Other books have been written on the best way to make that instant decision when presented with the scantest of facts. But in this book Johnson wants us to change the way that we make decisions using a more deliberative decision-making approach.
Mapping
Predicting
Deciding
He argues that this multi-dimension way of thinking about all the factors in a decision helps us make a better decision. He uses various real-life cases to explain the show the methodology behind it, including influence diagrams for the mapping stage to comprehend all of the factors about making a decision.
People who have deemed themselves super-forecasters have been shown to be no better than a primate with a dartboard when their predictions are assessed against their results and in predicting he explains the methods of ensuring that the decision is correct by contemplating all manner of possibilities.
The end result of that is then having to make a decision based on all the information provided. Not easy for very complex problems, but the tools like cost-benefit analysis and weighting assist with this part of the process.
You’d like to think that we as a species would be a better place to do this, but sadly we’re not. Vested interests often ensure that the decision process is skewed or flawed from the very beginning. Also having more diverse teams selected from people with a variety of experience and knowledge and give them the tools to challenge conventional thoughts will produce much better results than similar minded people.
I hadn’t read much about the Bin Laden takedown, so it was fascinating to read the level and layers of detail that went into the investigation of the site he was staying at and the suite of methods that they had at their disposal to accomplish the mission. In theory, then you will have come to a better decision if you follow these principles. Organisations with red teams provide the proverbial spanner in the works, also improve this by testing the resilience of the decisions that are being made. The bottom line is though that people make better decisions by planning in much more detail. Not just what you are intending to do, but the various possibilities could be and what the short and long term implications are.
I thought that it was an interesting book about a subject that we seem the fallout and failure from every day. I would have liked to have had more on the Marine Corps Planning Process that is mentioned in the book, and I’ve not read Middlemarch, so some of what he was describing about the fiction of George Elliot, and how it helped with decision making wasn’t relevant to me. However, I don’t think that this is his best work, my favourite of his Everything Bad is Good For You. has a much superior premise and narrative. That said, he is a good writer and I always find his books entertaining and informative and this was no different.
We are supposedly living in the age of the shortest attention span, not even being able to read the 280 characters from a tweet before the next notification attracts our attention. Other books have been written on the best way to make that instant decision when presented with the scantest of facts. But in this book Johnson wants us to change the way that we make decisions using a more deliberative decision-making approach.
Mapping
Predicting
Deciding
He argues that this multi-dimension way of thinking about all the factors in a decision helps us make a better decision. He uses various real-life cases to explain the show the methodology behind it, including influence diagrams for the mapping stage to comprehend all of the factors about making a decision.
People who have deemed themselves super-forecasters have been shown to be no better than a primate with a dartboard when their predictions are assessed against their results and in predicting he explains the methods of ensuring that the decision is correct by contemplating all manner of possibilities.
The end result of that is then having to make a decision based on all the information provided. Not easy for very complex problems, but the tools like cost-benefit analysis and weighting assist with this part of the process.
You’d like to think that we as a species would be a better place to do this, but sadly we’re not. Vested interests often ensure that the decision process is skewed or flawed from the very beginning. Also having more diverse teams selected from people with a variety of experience and knowledge and give them the tools to challenge conventional thoughts will produce much better results than similar minded people.
I hadn’t read much about the Bin Laden takedown, so it was fascinating to read the level and layers of detail that went into the investigation of the site he was staying at and the suite of methods that they had at their disposal to accomplish the mission. In theory, then you will have come to a better decision if you follow these principles. Organisations with red teams provide the proverbial spanner in the works, also improve this by testing the resilience of the decisions that are being made. The bottom line is though that people make better decisions by planning in much more detail. Not just what you are intending to do, but the various possibilities could be and what the short and long term implications are.
I thought that it was an interesting book about a subject that we seem the fallout and failure from every day. I would have liked to have had more on the Marine Corps Planning Process that is mentioned in the book, and I’ve not read Middlemarch, so some of what he was describing about the fiction of George Elliot, and how it helped with decision making wasn’t relevant to me. However, I don’t think that this is his best work, my favourite of his Everything Bad is Good For You. has a much superior premise and narrative. That said, he is a good writer and I always find his books entertaining and informative and this was no different.
June 30, 2021
Inter-disciplinary. Informative. Useful. Recommended.
August 1, 2023
This is a fun book by a science writer about what contemporary behavioral and neuroscience has to say about how we make long term consequential multi-variable decisions that have consequence far into the future - even though they are too often made on less informed and short sighted bases. The writer is knowledgeable about the current state of research and is skilled and writing about it. The result is a wonderful popular book, comparable or superior to much of the current popular literature on behavioral decision theory, behavioral economics, neuroscience, policy studies, and the other popular gardens where books on these topics tend to sprout.
I like how Johnson identifies his focus and distinguishes it from the other widely popularized treatments of cognitive heuristics, nudges, and the other hot topics of behavioral economics in terms of topics that can be resaearched in a lab setting versus decision problems that are hard to research in a lab but which are critical for the people and organizations making them. He does a good job in motivating the book and presents enough of the research without going overboard.
Johnson also ties together the entire book with a detailed case study of the US military’s efforts to track, locate, and attack Osama bin Ladin. He places the case in the context of recent failures of the military to effectively plan for consequential decisions, in particular the use of WMD intelligence prior to the second Iraq war and the failed attempt to rescue the US embassy hostages in Iran under President Carter.in 1980. The facts of the case are well known but are effectively presented. The extended case discussion works.
A strong point of the book is the discussion of simulations in the development of forecasting approaches in weather research and in medicine (randomized control designs as a form of simulation!!). After raising weather and medicine, the problems of simulations for personal and social decisions remained problematic. As a suggestion, Johnson recommends reading realist fiction, especially novels, and a way in which readers can become more sensitive and adept at thinking through decision situation. How can factionalized accounts provide simulations? Easy - all real decision settings are complex and idiosyncratic but reading realist fiction will train readers to avoid poor decision making and simplistic decision traps. This is a wonderful point - and Johnson includes serious history and biography as options - he makes his case persuasively, even though there is a bit too much coverage of George Eliot and Middlemarch for my tastes.
Books like this are inherently translational and serve to communicate research results from specialists to general readers. Johnson shows great respect for the integrity of the research and is a wonderful communicator. As these books go, this was a fine effort and well worth the time.
I like how Johnson identifies his focus and distinguishes it from the other widely popularized treatments of cognitive heuristics, nudges, and the other hot topics of behavioral economics in terms of topics that can be resaearched in a lab setting versus decision problems that are hard to research in a lab but which are critical for the people and organizations making them. He does a good job in motivating the book and presents enough of the research without going overboard.
Johnson also ties together the entire book with a detailed case study of the US military’s efforts to track, locate, and attack Osama bin Ladin. He places the case in the context of recent failures of the military to effectively plan for consequential decisions, in particular the use of WMD intelligence prior to the second Iraq war and the failed attempt to rescue the US embassy hostages in Iran under President Carter.in 1980. The facts of the case are well known but are effectively presented. The extended case discussion works.
A strong point of the book is the discussion of simulations in the development of forecasting approaches in weather research and in medicine (randomized control designs as a form of simulation!!). After raising weather and medicine, the problems of simulations for personal and social decisions remained problematic. As a suggestion, Johnson recommends reading realist fiction, especially novels, and a way in which readers can become more sensitive and adept at thinking through decision situation. How can factionalized accounts provide simulations? Easy - all real decision settings are complex and idiosyncratic but reading realist fiction will train readers to avoid poor decision making and simplistic decision traps. This is a wonderful point - and Johnson includes serious history and biography as options - he makes his case persuasively, even though there is a bit too much coverage of George Eliot and Middlemarch for my tastes.
Books like this are inherently translational and serve to communicate research results from specialists to general readers. Johnson shows great respect for the integrity of the research and is a wonderful communicator. As these books go, this was a fine effort and well worth the time.
August 27, 2018
I received this book, for free, in exchange for an honest review.
This book was a good book on decision making.
It tends to be a bit long winded for my tastes and spent a rather long time covering a few points.
To make this worse for me was the fact that most of the decision making was group decision making. I am more interested in individual decision making as most groups I've been in have been in engaged in top down decision making and I had/have little power to influence their decisioning.
On the other hand, on of the main examples in the book was Obama's decision making in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden. I have listened to too much Duncan Trussell and tend to imagine Obama taking life or death decisions too light heartedly. This book challenged the heartless king view I had and at least showed that there was extreme deliberation of possible outcomes. Its still hard to tell how much people in charged cared about people but at least it showed that they thought hard about outcomes.
This book was clearly a labor of love and was very well researched.
It was, though imperfect, one of the better decision making books I've read.
This book was a good book on decision making.
It tends to be a bit long winded for my tastes and spent a rather long time covering a few points.
To make this worse for me was the fact that most of the decision making was group decision making. I am more interested in individual decision making as most groups I've been in have been in engaged in top down decision making and I had/have little power to influence their decisioning.
On the other hand, on of the main examples in the book was Obama's decision making in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden. I have listened to too much Duncan Trussell and tend to imagine Obama taking life or death decisions too light heartedly. This book challenged the heartless king view I had and at least showed that there was extreme deliberation of possible outcomes. Its still hard to tell how much people in charged cared about people but at least it showed that they thought hard about outcomes.
This book was clearly a labor of love and was very well researched.
It was, though imperfect, one of the better decision making books I've read.
September 21, 2020
a wonderful book! smart, well-organized, enjoyable to read, insightful and very useful when struggling with an important "full-spectrum" complex decision. it teaches you a lot about structuring the decisional process, allowing enough time for gathering information and mapping the parameters of the decision, then different methods of predicting possible outcomes, and then methods for deciding. it uses examples from politics and literature, discusses different important decision humankind is facing from a global perspective right now, and ends with a beautiful argumentation of why novels are an excellent tool for expanding one's decisional capacities. and i totally agree that decisional theory should be taught in high-schools. i very much enjoyed it in all its parts. highly recommended!
February 27, 2019
3.5 stars - this started out strong and became less relevant towards the end. It gave some interesting and helpful ideas for making big decisions, which would be especially helpful for organizations where decisions are based on likelihood of probable outcomes. I think that personal decisions still depend on so many unknowns, that even though the suggestions would improve the process, I’m not sure they would have an impact about something like whether to move and whom to marry.
November 22, 2020
“More than any other creative form, novels give us an opportunity to simulate and rehearse the hard choices of life before we actually make one ourselves.”
What is the book about?
The book is about hard and life altering choices that may be rare and difficult to make. Where to live, whom to marry, what to believe, whether to start a company, or even how to end a war.
What problem was he trying solve?
How we create a decision process to make those hard choices.
Beliefs challenged?
That hard choices are impossible or only need intuition. Less black and white more nuance.
Further implications:
First get diverse perspectives and look at all the options. What are the options? Then start narrowing it down and use weighted (value) decisions matrix.
Action items
To read middlemarch
Author/year:
“Farsighted” by Steven Johnson first published in 2018 by John Murray. I enjoyed “where good ideas come from”.
Johnson is the author of nine books, largely on the intersection of science, technology, and personal experience. He has also co-created three influential web sites.
Some concepts:
Darwin’s choice: marry or not?
Full spectrum map
Starting with diverse perspectives and later narrowing it down, but it’s rarely “A or B”
Random control trial (RCT)
Scenario plans
Simulations
Weather prediction
Supercomputers and AI
500 year mistake (long consequences)
The first forecast
The value model
Googles “risk magnitude”
War games
Herbert Simons “bounded rationality” that we have limited capability for rational choice
Novels mentioned:
Middlemarch
War a and peace
The great gatsby
Challenge of farsighted decision-making:
1. Complex decisions involve multiple variables
2. Complex decisions require full-spectrum analysis
3. Complex decisions force us to predict the future
4. Complex decisions involve varied levels of uncertainty
5. Complex decisions often involve conflicting objectives
6. Complex decisions harbor undiscovered options
7. Complex decisions are prone to System 1 failings
8. Complex decisions are vulnerable to failures of collective intelligence
What is the book about?
The book is about hard and life altering choices that may be rare and difficult to make. Where to live, whom to marry, what to believe, whether to start a company, or even how to end a war.
What problem was he trying solve?
How we create a decision process to make those hard choices.
Beliefs challenged?
That hard choices are impossible or only need intuition. Less black and white more nuance.
Further implications:
First get diverse perspectives and look at all the options. What are the options? Then start narrowing it down and use weighted (value) decisions matrix.
Action items
To read middlemarch
Author/year:
“Farsighted” by Steven Johnson first published in 2018 by John Murray. I enjoyed “where good ideas come from”.
Johnson is the author of nine books, largely on the intersection of science, technology, and personal experience. He has also co-created three influential web sites.
Some concepts:
Darwin’s choice: marry or not?
Full spectrum map
Starting with diverse perspectives and later narrowing it down, but it’s rarely “A or B”
Random control trial (RCT)
Scenario plans
Simulations
Weather prediction
Supercomputers and AI
500 year mistake (long consequences)
The first forecast
The value model
Googles “risk magnitude”
War games
Herbert Simons “bounded rationality” that we have limited capability for rational choice
Novels mentioned:
Middlemarch
War a and peace
The great gatsby
Challenge of farsighted decision-making:
1. Complex decisions involve multiple variables
2. Complex decisions require full-spectrum analysis
3. Complex decisions force us to predict the future
4. Complex decisions involve varied levels of uncertainty
5. Complex decisions often involve conflicting objectives
6. Complex decisions harbor undiscovered options
7. Complex decisions are prone to System 1 failings
8. Complex decisions are vulnerable to failures of collective intelligence
February 17, 2020
Spoiler Alert for this non-fiction book: Want to understand how to make a decision?
Read a lot of novels. Maybe start with Middlemarch.
On a slightly more serious note, I read this after reading Why We're Polarized and both books raised the specter of our political system not being particularly great for making positive decisions. We do need systems thinking and dare I say, propaganda, to improve how we collectively make decisions that impact us all.
Read a lot of novels. Maybe start with Middlemarch.
On a slightly more serious note, I read this after reading Why We're Polarized and both books raised the specter of our political system not being particularly great for making positive decisions. We do need systems thinking and dare I say, propaganda, to improve how we collectively make decisions that impact us all.
October 2, 2018
This book could have been summarized in a few sentences. Don’t waste your time.
September 3, 2018
As a fan of Steven Johnson’s, I was really interested to see him take on neuroscience and decision making analysis. And, well, this is fine. He’s packed a lot of information into the book, with several major examples he returns to as a way of explaining concepts (the capture of bin Laden, Washington’s loss in Brooklyn, Darwin’s decision to marry, etc). However, this just didn’t gel as a compulsively readable work of narrative science reporting. He got there at times - the final chapter has an analysis of Dorothea’s decision-making in Middlemarch - but it just wasn’t as fun to read.
October 19, 2018
Not sure I got much new out of this book. The specific literary fiction example running through the book was more distracting than practical.
July 25, 2021
Highly recommended.
August 9, 2019
How do we make the decisions that matter the most? What science is there to the situations in which unknowns are unavoidable?
Often times, decisions arise out of the disorganization and chaos of different people working toward separate objectives. This is essentially shortsightedness. The ability to intentionally calculate decisions for future outcomes is a uniquely human advanced attribute (moral-mental algebra). When making difficult decisions, the tools we use to measure and weigh certain situations matter most. However, humans are unable to take into account all variables due to inevitable unknowns. The balancing stage of determine the values of respective weights is just as important as the decision to be made in itself. The science of a pros and cons list has been the only means for making important decisions for centuries. Most of the time, our decisions come about over time after many small and isolated conversations and periods of information extraction.
We have a tendency to focus on the results of big decisions, rather than the important processes that led to the decisions and results themselves. To improve and learn from our decision-making, we must closely the processes that led to them, as opposed to their end-result.
There are divergence and consensus stages in decision-making processes. The divergence stage is defined by the expansion of new possibilities. Sometimes, this stage opens up entirely new paths that were not initially comprehensible at the onset.
There are eight factors that predominantly define difficult decisions: multiple variables; conflicting perspectives; outcomes don’t wholly exist within the binary framework of our logic, etc. There are three steps to building effective models for farsighted decisions: (1) create a map of all variables and potential paths to take with their accompanying outcomes. (2) Make predictions about where each of the paths will go, and how they will play out. (3) Determine the respective weights/values of the comparatively competing paths for different decisions.
Highly complex problems never have prescriptive solutions because the complexity is what defines the singularity of the situation. The limitations of science are defined by the ever-changing conditions and interactions of human life. Storytelling is often the tool used against the reductive influence of our minds in isolation. These stories compress the complexity of life into archetypes and moral messages. There’s wisdom in understanding past decisions as they represent the crossroads within our life experiences. It is the hypothesis of this book that, there is also wisdom in seeing beyond our past experiences, and appreciating the isolated complexity of some of the situations we’re confronted with.
Because of our inability to perceive all possible variables, we often rely on our ability to make sense of input provided by proxies and translators, which are responsible for measuring and accounting for as many relevant and important variables we can gather and comprehend. Influence Diagrams map out the rippling effects of complex decisions after they’re made. However, impact pathways rarely run in straight lines. Making an effective decision lies mainly within our capacity to obtain a comprehensively full spectrum of the situation we’re dealing with.
Every farsighted decision requires its own unique map, apart from any kind of outstanding prescriptive methods. Diversity of perspectives helps us see situations for what they actually are. There is a diversity trumps ability theory of group-based decision-making. Diversity improves our judgement. Diverse groups are simultaneously more likely to be right, and more open to being wrong, which may seem like a paradox. However, there’s a correlation between astute decision-making and a willingness to recognize and embrace uncertainty. Often, certainty that one is right, makes it more likely that one is in fact wrong.
There are three primary forms uncertainties can take: knowable unknowns, inaccessible unknowns, and unknowable unknowns. The rate of scientific development is the rate of things to test. There’s a 70% rule for certainty when making decisions, in that we should make decisions when there’s only a 30% chance of uncertainty, because 100% decisions don’t come around often. Needing perfect clarity can cause paralysis. Mapping out a process is about identifying variables and developing a spectrum of choices. The number of choices and alternatives considered is correlated with the correctness of a decision made. Most large-scale change occurs when a group of people increasingly occupy an extreme position, often via counterculture.
Between options A and B there can often be an option C. Barrack Obama was typically presented with two choices, and would then develop a third choice after asking essential questions. The systems in the brain that illuminate when in a resting state, are far more significant and observable, when compared to non-human primates. Thinking in a free and unencumbered fashion is uniquely human. The “default network” shows that brain activity is more active in testing states, when compared to active states of thinking and acting. The retrieving, manipulating and connecting of information is enhanced in the absence of external stimuli. Daydreaming is one of the most neurologically active states of mind. When surveying people about the content of daydreams, most reported pondering future events. Past events were typically referred to in relation to a future event. Thus, the majority of us spend the majority of our time thinking of things that aren’t actually real. This future-orientation is the defining feature of our brain’s default network. Our minds will jump into the future when we give ourselves rest. Humans thrive by means of considering prospects. The tools we use should be in accordance with the problem we are striving to solve, which must remain flexible. A single field of expertise or single world-view makes it more difficult to make an accurate long-view decision. Long-view decisions should try to take into account as many variables and probabilities as possible. People who are open to new experiences are often better decision forecasters. The “fallacy of extrapolation” is the false belief that existing trends will continue indefinitely into the future. The RCT statistical method is what transformed medicinal diagnosing from an art to a science. All significant art can make this transformation when applied rightly.
Simulations make us better decision-makers. They reveal impact pathways. Uncertainty is an inevitable factor in any far-sighted decision. What happens fast is illusion, what happens slowly is reality. Diverse groups always make smarter decisions. Contrast helps us see that which really matters most to us. Big decisions always benefit from time for divergent thinking, and from fresh perspectives.
Often times, decisions arise out of the disorganization and chaos of different people working toward separate objectives. This is essentially shortsightedness. The ability to intentionally calculate decisions for future outcomes is a uniquely human advanced attribute (moral-mental algebra). When making difficult decisions, the tools we use to measure and weigh certain situations matter most. However, humans are unable to take into account all variables due to inevitable unknowns. The balancing stage of determine the values of respective weights is just as important as the decision to be made in itself. The science of a pros and cons list has been the only means for making important decisions for centuries. Most of the time, our decisions come about over time after many small and isolated conversations and periods of information extraction.
We have a tendency to focus on the results of big decisions, rather than the important processes that led to the decisions and results themselves. To improve and learn from our decision-making, we must closely the processes that led to them, as opposed to their end-result.
There are divergence and consensus stages in decision-making processes. The divergence stage is defined by the expansion of new possibilities. Sometimes, this stage opens up entirely new paths that were not initially comprehensible at the onset.
There are eight factors that predominantly define difficult decisions: multiple variables; conflicting perspectives; outcomes don’t wholly exist within the binary framework of our logic, etc. There are three steps to building effective models for farsighted decisions: (1) create a map of all variables and potential paths to take with their accompanying outcomes. (2) Make predictions about where each of the paths will go, and how they will play out. (3) Determine the respective weights/values of the comparatively competing paths for different decisions.
Highly complex problems never have prescriptive solutions because the complexity is what defines the singularity of the situation. The limitations of science are defined by the ever-changing conditions and interactions of human life. Storytelling is often the tool used against the reductive influence of our minds in isolation. These stories compress the complexity of life into archetypes and moral messages. There’s wisdom in understanding past decisions as they represent the crossroads within our life experiences. It is the hypothesis of this book that, there is also wisdom in seeing beyond our past experiences, and appreciating the isolated complexity of some of the situations we’re confronted with.
Because of our inability to perceive all possible variables, we often rely on our ability to make sense of input provided by proxies and translators, which are responsible for measuring and accounting for as many relevant and important variables we can gather and comprehend. Influence Diagrams map out the rippling effects of complex decisions after they’re made. However, impact pathways rarely run in straight lines. Making an effective decision lies mainly within our capacity to obtain a comprehensively full spectrum of the situation we’re dealing with.
Every farsighted decision requires its own unique map, apart from any kind of outstanding prescriptive methods. Diversity of perspectives helps us see situations for what they actually are. There is a diversity trumps ability theory of group-based decision-making. Diversity improves our judgement. Diverse groups are simultaneously more likely to be right, and more open to being wrong, which may seem like a paradox. However, there’s a correlation between astute decision-making and a willingness to recognize and embrace uncertainty. Often, certainty that one is right, makes it more likely that one is in fact wrong.
There are three primary forms uncertainties can take: knowable unknowns, inaccessible unknowns, and unknowable unknowns. The rate of scientific development is the rate of things to test. There’s a 70% rule for certainty when making decisions, in that we should make decisions when there’s only a 30% chance of uncertainty, because 100% decisions don’t come around often. Needing perfect clarity can cause paralysis. Mapping out a process is about identifying variables and developing a spectrum of choices. The number of choices and alternatives considered is correlated with the correctness of a decision made. Most large-scale change occurs when a group of people increasingly occupy an extreme position, often via counterculture.
Between options A and B there can often be an option C. Barrack Obama was typically presented with two choices, and would then develop a third choice after asking essential questions. The systems in the brain that illuminate when in a resting state, are far more significant and observable, when compared to non-human primates. Thinking in a free and unencumbered fashion is uniquely human. The “default network” shows that brain activity is more active in testing states, when compared to active states of thinking and acting. The retrieving, manipulating and connecting of information is enhanced in the absence of external stimuli. Daydreaming is one of the most neurologically active states of mind. When surveying people about the content of daydreams, most reported pondering future events. Past events were typically referred to in relation to a future event. Thus, the majority of us spend the majority of our time thinking of things that aren’t actually real. This future-orientation is the defining feature of our brain’s default network. Our minds will jump into the future when we give ourselves rest. Humans thrive by means of considering prospects. The tools we use should be in accordance with the problem we are striving to solve, which must remain flexible. A single field of expertise or single world-view makes it more difficult to make an accurate long-view decision. Long-view decisions should try to take into account as many variables and probabilities as possible. People who are open to new experiences are often better decision forecasters. The “fallacy of extrapolation” is the false belief that existing trends will continue indefinitely into the future. The RCT statistical method is what transformed medicinal diagnosing from an art to a science. All significant art can make this transformation when applied rightly.
Simulations make us better decision-makers. They reveal impact pathways. Uncertainty is an inevitable factor in any far-sighted decision. What happens fast is illusion, what happens slowly is reality. Diverse groups always make smarter decisions. Contrast helps us see that which really matters most to us. Big decisions always benefit from time for divergent thinking, and from fresh perspectives.
October 13, 2023
Interesante ensayo sobre la toma de decisiones. Presenta diferentes ejemplos sobre toma de decisiones, tanto para la resolución de problemas sencillos como de lo más complejos. Interesante, como siempre, leer a este autor, por la forma en que explica las cosas y por lo bien documentado.
January 3, 2019
Given the current tendency to focus on personalities, beliefs, and short term results over thoughtful consideration of options when making decisions with long term consequences, “Farsighted” is an important and timely book.
Johnson weaves historical stories, fiction, and research into decision making together to help us understand what goes into a good decision making process, in particular a process for making decisions that have long term impact. A recurring theme in the book is how the best long term decisions are made by a exploring options, engaging a diverse set of perspectives, acknowledging uncertainty, and evaluating the relative importance of decision criteria. Many of the best decisions allow for some level of “tinkering” even. He acknowledges that most important decisions end up having a large instinct component (which is reasonable given that there are unknowns). But by taking the time to explore options, we help those instincts do better.
I also enjoyed that he referred to the classic “Sources of Power” by Gary Klein, a book that I didn’t fully appreciate when I first read it.
In the final two-thirds of the book Johnson gets more reflective than in the fist parts, and for me, that part of the book dragged a bit, but the stories about relationships of famous historical figures, and those of Johnson’s decision to relocate his family might help you understand that the ideas in the book as just as applicable to your personal life as they are to foreign policy, war, or business.
He closes the book with a pitch for teaching decision science in school. He points out that the subject combines science and art. As someone who studied Operations Research (which is an algorithmic approach to decision making) and who, as an agile software developer appreciates the value of stories and games to enhance creativity and innovation, I can imagines that a class in Decision Making would have amazing STEAM potential, combining science, math, storytelling, and perhaps game design and even social science.
When I read a non-fiction book I hope that learn something that I can use in my current life (personal and/or work) and for something that gets me thinking. This book met both of those criteria, and if you think about how people make decisions, it’s worth a look.
Johnson weaves historical stories, fiction, and research into decision making together to help us understand what goes into a good decision making process, in particular a process for making decisions that have long term impact. A recurring theme in the book is how the best long term decisions are made by a exploring options, engaging a diverse set of perspectives, acknowledging uncertainty, and evaluating the relative importance of decision criteria. Many of the best decisions allow for some level of “tinkering” even. He acknowledges that most important decisions end up having a large instinct component (which is reasonable given that there are unknowns). But by taking the time to explore options, we help those instincts do better.
I also enjoyed that he referred to the classic “Sources of Power” by Gary Klein, a book that I didn’t fully appreciate when I first read it.
In the final two-thirds of the book Johnson gets more reflective than in the fist parts, and for me, that part of the book dragged a bit, but the stories about relationships of famous historical figures, and those of Johnson’s decision to relocate his family might help you understand that the ideas in the book as just as applicable to your personal life as they are to foreign policy, war, or business.
He closes the book with a pitch for teaching decision science in school. He points out that the subject combines science and art. As someone who studied Operations Research (which is an algorithmic approach to decision making) and who, as an agile software developer appreciates the value of stories and games to enhance creativity and innovation, I can imagines that a class in Decision Making would have amazing STEAM potential, combining science, math, storytelling, and perhaps game design and even social science.
When I read a non-fiction book I hope that learn something that I can use in my current life (personal and/or work) and for something that gets me thinking. This book met both of those criteria, and if you think about how people make decisions, it’s worth a look.
August 17, 2021
I have long been a fan of decision sciences and have read extensively on this topic, so I was looking forward to this book by Steven Johnson. Most of the book didn't disappoint, though not a lot of new material was covered that I hadn't read elsewhere. Much of what the author covers here I found to be summarized and framed more practically in Chip and Dan Heath's book Decisive, and in Dan Heath's book Upstream. However, where Steven Johnson really succeeds is in weaving stories together into a compelling narrative, from the backstory of the decision process and planning that preceded the raid on Osama Bin Laden's compoud to Charles Darwin's decision to delay publication of his life's work in order to get married and raise a family.
All of this was good material, but I had to laugh out loud when I got to the last chapter of the book, as the author applied the material he had just covered to examine his own decision to move from New York to California. It was surprisingly personal, though it worked in talking about how some of tools he had discussed would apply better than others to personal decisions like that. But what really threw me for a loop was a very long exposition of George Eliot's novel Middlemarch, and all the ways that this novel provides wonderful glimpses into the difficulties of the decision making process.
In a twist I had not seen coming at all, the author ties together everything in this book by suggesting that perhaps the single best way for people to learn to make better decisions is by reading lots of literary fiction! And as crazy as that might sound, I love that idea, and I totally get it. He had demonstrated how one of the biggest advances in medicine came with the adoption of the randomized controlled trial, but when it comes to making personal decisions, we don't have the ability to do trials like that. But by reading great literature and absorbing the stories of people who have wrestled with countless decisions, we can begin to get a better sense of the range of choices that might be available to us as we look ahead to our own futures.
All in all, this is a great overview of the discipline of making good decisions. But if you are a lover of literature, as I suspect you are since you are reading this on Goodreads, then you will love the author's contention that literature is the key to a brighter future for everyone.
All of this was good material, but I had to laugh out loud when I got to the last chapter of the book, as the author applied the material he had just covered to examine his own decision to move from New York to California. It was surprisingly personal, though it worked in talking about how some of tools he had discussed would apply better than others to personal decisions like that. But what really threw me for a loop was a very long exposition of George Eliot's novel Middlemarch, and all the ways that this novel provides wonderful glimpses into the difficulties of the decision making process.
In a twist I had not seen coming at all, the author ties together everything in this book by suggesting that perhaps the single best way for people to learn to make better decisions is by reading lots of literary fiction! And as crazy as that might sound, I love that idea, and I totally get it. He had demonstrated how one of the biggest advances in medicine came with the adoption of the randomized controlled trial, but when it comes to making personal decisions, we don't have the ability to do trials like that. But by reading great literature and absorbing the stories of people who have wrestled with countless decisions, we can begin to get a better sense of the range of choices that might be available to us as we look ahead to our own futures.
All in all, this is a great overview of the discipline of making good decisions. But if you are a lover of literature, as I suspect you are since you are reading this on Goodreads, then you will love the author's contention that literature is the key to a brighter future for everyone.
October 6, 2018
Steven Johnson is always an interesting read. I've been a fan of his since I initially read "Where Good Ideas Come From." In this book, he clearly begins with the question of "how do we make good decisions?" In a way, this book is the natural sequel (if it can be said that non-fiction books can have sequels), to Ideas. If you wonder how you come up with an interesting idea, the process is similar to coming up with a good decision - or at least an informed methodical decision.
Like ideas, decisions don't really come from the blue. Even the famous stories that Gladwell discusses in Blink, come from a long history of experience and relate to the amount of information that we have about a given situation. Now, we can of course, come to a decision without all the information we need. In fact, it's guaranteed that this will happen. We never have all the information we ever need to make a decision. This book takes that as an axiom, clearly stated and referenced throughout the book. It's not just a one off obvious statement. Johnson notes that the uncertainty of the outcome prevents a perfect decision plus, the fact that we cannot test what a decision would do before taking action. The best we can do is simulate and for most decisions, the best way to simulate is to tell a story.
In fact, day dreaming is one of the best ways for us to tell a story about how life could be different or how we could positively impact our lives. For example, if you're thinking of getting a new job, day dreaming about how that job can improve your life is a great way of helping understand the impacts of your decision making process.
This book includes a number of real life examples of complex decisions that went well or went poorly. In the cases where things went well he digs into the decision making process and how these tools made an effective case for following the decision that was ultimately used. In the cases where things went poorly, he investigates the blindspots that lead to the poor decision (including a couple personal anecdotes) and the result.
I found this book to be really helpful and believe that it provides tools that can help improve our deliberation process.
Like ideas, decisions don't really come from the blue. Even the famous stories that Gladwell discusses in Blink, come from a long history of experience and relate to the amount of information that we have about a given situation. Now, we can of course, come to a decision without all the information we need. In fact, it's guaranteed that this will happen. We never have all the information we ever need to make a decision. This book takes that as an axiom, clearly stated and referenced throughout the book. It's not just a one off obvious statement. Johnson notes that the uncertainty of the outcome prevents a perfect decision plus, the fact that we cannot test what a decision would do before taking action. The best we can do is simulate and for most decisions, the best way to simulate is to tell a story.
In fact, day dreaming is one of the best ways for us to tell a story about how life could be different or how we could positively impact our lives. For example, if you're thinking of getting a new job, day dreaming about how that job can improve your life is a great way of helping understand the impacts of your decision making process.
This book includes a number of real life examples of complex decisions that went well or went poorly. In the cases where things went well he digs into the decision making process and how these tools made an effective case for following the decision that was ultimately used. In the cases where things went poorly, he investigates the blindspots that lead to the poor decision (including a couple personal anecdotes) and the result.
I found this book to be really helpful and believe that it provides tools that can help improve our deliberation process.
May 2, 2020
Decision making is not purely about talent, but it is a skill that can be improved with systematic practice. That is the premise of this book. And while a systematic, full spectrum approach is useful, at the end of the day the decision can also rely on intuition. But for intuition to work, it needs time to stew things over, and to analyze the problem from multiple perspectives. The techniques described in the book provides useful ways of framing problems and structuring discussions and analysis.
This is the gist of the book. The book explores various techniques for analyzing complex problems to arrive at farsighted solutions. This is done alternating between the science of decision making, and a case study of the decision making leading up to the CIA raid that killed bin Laden. The book is well written, and admirably brief (256 pages hard cover). While quoting studies, it also offers clear hands on advise on things like how to structure meetings to ensure all voices are heard (critical), when to seek consensus (not too early), how many options to consider (more leads to better decisions - "If you find yourself mapping a 'whether or not' question, you're almost always better off turning it into a 'which one' question"), etc.
This book should appeal to anybody trying to make or facilitate better farsighted decision making. Not too long, but containing plenty of actionable ideas on structuring problems. If you've read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction or Thinking, Fast and Slow you should find some familiar ideas, but definitely also new ideas and everything wrapped in a neat package.
This is the gist of the book. The book explores various techniques for analyzing complex problems to arrive at farsighted solutions. This is done alternating between the science of decision making, and a case study of the decision making leading up to the CIA raid that killed bin Laden. The book is well written, and admirably brief (256 pages hard cover). While quoting studies, it also offers clear hands on advise on things like how to structure meetings to ensure all voices are heard (critical), when to seek consensus (not too early), how many options to consider (more leads to better decisions - "If you find yourself mapping a 'whether or not' question, you're almost always better off turning it into a 'which one' question"), etc.
This book should appeal to anybody trying to make or facilitate better farsighted decision making. Not too long, but containing plenty of actionable ideas on structuring problems. If you've read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction or Thinking, Fast and Slow you should find some familiar ideas, but definitely also new ideas and everything wrapped in a neat package.
November 1, 2018
I don't want to come off as too harsh, but I do feel like this book is the worst version of a mash-up between How to Measure Anything and Stumbling on Happiness. I think the author brings up good points on pros-and-cons lists and pre-mortems, but the science for storytelling the future is... just not there. I mean, Dan Gilbert said it best:
So please... don't make up stories about the future. That's simply bad decision-making advice from a book on decision-making.
What my book suggests is that this isn't a particularly reliable way to make these decisions, to make these so-called affective forecasts. But it does turn out there is a way that can make you a bit more reliable. That's to find out how people who are experiencing the events that you're only imagining are feeling about them.
One of the very best ways to find out if you're going to enjoy taking a job at a particular law firm is simply to see how happy the people who work there are. That sounds like amazingly simple advice and it really is. We found two things in our studies. One, using this method of making predictions can increase people's accuracy dramatically. Two, absolutely nobody wants to do it. In our experiments when people are given a choice between using their own imaginations or using information given to them by other people who are actually having the experience that they would only be imagining, we find that virtually 100 percent of participants in experiments prefer to use their imagination. And they believe their imagination will lead them to be much more accurate. In fact, they're wrong.
So please... don't make up stories about the future. That's simply bad decision-making advice from a book on decision-making.
November 5, 2018
Johnson delves into decision making on all levels from personal to national. He discusses military, environmental, personal, and even interplanetary decisions that we might not be farsighted enough to see their consequences. Some of these are: George Washington’s decision at the Battle of Brooklyn Heights; Obama’s decision on Osama bin Laden; NYC decision on Collect Pond and making a park from an abandoned overhead rail line; Darwin’s decision to marry; author’s decision to relocate to the West Coast; and even decisions in literature.
What all these decisions have in common are a framework of mapping, predicting or simulating, and then deciding. Some take a long deliberate process with LVM (linear value modeling) and take months or years. Others are made much quicker using an abbreviated pro and con list either written down or processed internally by our brains- our moral algebra.
It’s all very interesting but it does bog down at times. As a practitioner of the Marine Corps Planning Process I was surprised he didn’t delve into this very useful tool. His proofreaders missed an “egregious” minor error calling Admiral McRaven a general. I found the back third of the book much more interesting as he contemplated decisions for the greater good and personal decisions. Who gets to decide? Messaging extra terrestrials, immortality, and enabling artificial intelligence to surpass human comprehension and control are the big three. Also I had never thought of literary fiction as being a tool for enabling decisions. It’s all one big simulation according to Johnson. That was a fresh and stimulating observation that now has me wanting to read Middlemarch by George Eliot.
What all these decisions have in common are a framework of mapping, predicting or simulating, and then deciding. Some take a long deliberate process with LVM (linear value modeling) and take months or years. Others are made much quicker using an abbreviated pro and con list either written down or processed internally by our brains- our moral algebra.
It’s all very interesting but it does bog down at times. As a practitioner of the Marine Corps Planning Process I was surprised he didn’t delve into this very useful tool. His proofreaders missed an “egregious” minor error calling Admiral McRaven a general. I found the back third of the book much more interesting as he contemplated decisions for the greater good and personal decisions. Who gets to decide? Messaging extra terrestrials, immortality, and enabling artificial intelligence to surpass human comprehension and control are the big three. Also I had never thought of literary fiction as being a tool for enabling decisions. It’s all one big simulation according to Johnson. That was a fresh and stimulating observation that now has me wanting to read Middlemarch by George Eliot.
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April 6, 2020One increasingly popular method used for predicting the future is using red teams.
A red team is a group that is created within an organization. The team acts as though it were the ‘enemy’ when the larger organization is in the process of making strategic decisions.
Making decisions is never easy, and even math can't always get you to the finish line. But if you do a few sums and take the time to mull the variables and outcomes over, you’ll be well on your way to making a sound and informed decision.
Decision-making is difficult for each and every one of us. That’s because humans have a hard time predicting what the future outcome of any given decision will be and whether we will be happy with that outcome. That’s why it’s important to take the time to make decisions. Both the traditional approach of just chewing things over or a more technical and mathematical approach of mapping out all options and variables can be useful.
Actionable advice:
Build diverse teams.
As you’ve seen in these blinks, the more diverse a group is, the better decisions they make. So the next time you’re putting together, say, a project team, make a conscious effort to include people with diverse backgrounds. The added breadth of experience will help the group make more representative decisions, thereby producing better results.
A red team is a group that is created within an organization. The team acts as though it were the ‘enemy’ when the larger organization is in the process of making strategic decisions.
Making decisions is never easy, and even math can't always get you to the finish line. But if you do a few sums and take the time to mull the variables and outcomes over, you’ll be well on your way to making a sound and informed decision.
Decision-making is difficult for each and every one of us. That’s because humans have a hard time predicting what the future outcome of any given decision will be and whether we will be happy with that outcome. That’s why it’s important to take the time to make decisions. Both the traditional approach of just chewing things over or a more technical and mathematical approach of mapping out all options and variables can be useful.
Actionable advice:
Build diverse teams.
As you’ve seen in these blinks, the more diverse a group is, the better decisions they make. So the next time you’re putting together, say, a project team, make a conscious effort to include people with diverse backgrounds. The added breadth of experience will help the group make more representative decisions, thereby producing better results.
October 10, 2018
Nice book about a process for making decisions. Interesting examples given for the three steps - mapping, predicting and deciding. Many decisions are hardly this or that. Lateral thinking can expand the choices available (mapping) and you need to simulate the outcomes if you chose one path over another. Then you decide using a spreadsheet putting down all objective and subjective outcomes now and down the road. This book could be half its size. He gets down ratholes - the book Middlemarch seems to be huge with this author and drags this novel kicking and screaming into this book to make a point. And gets political and goes down other ratholes like Global Warming, making tenuous connections between his points and the thesis of this book.
October 18, 2018
Starts strong, then goes off in an unexpected direction that feels ... tenuous at best for a book that seemed to be about decision science and instead ended with an odd evaluation of the author’s personal cross-country move and then an extended mediation on Middlemarch. Still, the early chapters are a neat, engaging read — though they offer little beyond what’s found in Tetlock or Kahneman or Taleb. Ultimately an enjoyable, if light, read.
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