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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
336 pages, Hardcover
First published November 11, 2014
About the author
Michael Pillsbury
9 books95 followersMichael Pillsbury
Michael Pillsbury is the director of the Center on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute and has served in presidential administrations from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. Educated at Stanford and Columbia Universities, he is a former analyst at the RAND Corporation and research fellow at Harvard and has served in senior positions in the Defense Department and on the staff of four U.S. Senate committees. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He lives in Washington, D.C.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 478 reviews
March 22, 2020
I was not surprised as I read this book.
I've been through my own intellectual crisis, reading many political books, watching the news, freaking out about the Tiananmen Square Massacre, and generally trying to get a general drift of China in global politics. Bits and pieces came to light from the time of Mao, the Cultural Revolution, the closing and opening of borders, Nixion, and then the great strategy boiled down to: "When capable, feign incapacity."
This book spells it all out, but let me make an analogy.
You know that A-Type next-door neighbor of yours that is totally driven, at all costs, to succeed? The one who was really rude to you until you got your own really excellent job? The one who didn't give you the time of day until you brought home your Mercedes?
Yeah, that one. The one who suddenly became all smiles and showed appreciation for all your wonderful accomplishments, but you later, (much later,) discovered that he was talking massive amounts of shit about you to his family, his extended family, and harshly shut down any lines of communication between his children and yours? Or the fact that for the last 20 (or is it 30, now?) years, he's been borrowing all your tools in your garage and never giving them back, has been using your accountant, has been making copies of all your entire movie collection, and during that entire time, he has always made that class of major justifications: "I'm not lucky, I just never got the breaks I needed, I'm physically unable to do the work, my boss hates me..." and you, like the chump you are, loaned him money, taught him everything you knew about how to make it big, and your wife and children STILL give the family charitable donations.
Take that analogy and apply it to China and USA. Not only is the censorship rampant over there, but all their schools teach total BS about how America has been pushing down China for the last 150 years. Anyone sent over in official capacities will look shamefaced about this and so many other facts, say it's just a small minority in their government and smile. Officials have been doing nothing but reassure and make all the right noises to the West, making promises and yet always breaking them.
This isn't about rogue elements in China, you know. They are autocratic. The Hawks established a plan to pretend weakness, get others to do all the heavy lifting for them, and get so strong, economically, that they will replace the West as the most dominant power in the world. They're actions speak powerfully and clearly. They have a long-term plan. Say whatever they need in order to get to the top, make sure they indoctrinate each generation to massively distrust other systems (first Russia, then America) and take the slow path to total dominance.
Again, this shouldn't come as any surprise. Any country with designs on power will go about things in a similar way.
But here's the thing: this book is written by someone who has been deep in the policy-and-analysis end of things in America. He had his own disillusionment, first believing that the best road was through peace and mutual aid. When the weight of such proof of duplicity in united fronts became too obvious, he spoke out. More and more proof is everywhere. 70% of all electronic intrusions come from China. There is near-total disdain for ecological problems including the cancer rates in their own population caused by industrial pollution. Free speech is nearly nonexistent. There has been a near-total eradication of the very IDEA of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in China. Those dissidents who DID want to have an honest partnership with the world were subsequently murdered or imprisoned.
And all the while, official faces try to disarm and downplay all this and say all the right things to get more money, aid, and technology. (Although, I'm sure by now, technology isn't all that required. They send tons of students abroad every year to get as much as they want.)
And the poor-me scenario? Their GNP tripled between 1997 and 2007. And yet, they're still playing the same card. Coal power is blanketing the skies in neighboring countries.
I'm not being alarmist. Anyone who keeps up with the news can piece together a much larger picture than I can in a short review. I find it very telling that both Russia and China are united in painting America as devils, however, and not in some piecemeal way. I'm talking systematic, state-sponsored propaganda.
I've been through my own intellectual crisis, reading many political books, watching the news, freaking out about the Tiananmen Square Massacre, and generally trying to get a general drift of China in global politics. Bits and pieces came to light from the time of Mao, the Cultural Revolution, the closing and opening of borders, Nixion, and then the great strategy boiled down to: "When capable, feign incapacity."
This book spells it all out, but let me make an analogy.
You know that A-Type next-door neighbor of yours that is totally driven, at all costs, to succeed? The one who was really rude to you until you got your own really excellent job? The one who didn't give you the time of day until you brought home your Mercedes?
Yeah, that one. The one who suddenly became all smiles and showed appreciation for all your wonderful accomplishments, but you later, (much later,) discovered that he was talking massive amounts of shit about you to his family, his extended family, and harshly shut down any lines of communication between his children and yours? Or the fact that for the last 20 (or is it 30, now?) years, he's been borrowing all your tools in your garage and never giving them back, has been using your accountant, has been making copies of all your entire movie collection, and during that entire time, he has always made that class of major justifications: "I'm not lucky, I just never got the breaks I needed, I'm physically unable to do the work, my boss hates me..." and you, like the chump you are, loaned him money, taught him everything you knew about how to make it big, and your wife and children STILL give the family charitable donations.
Take that analogy and apply it to China and USA. Not only is the censorship rampant over there, but all their schools teach total BS about how America has been pushing down China for the last 150 years. Anyone sent over in official capacities will look shamefaced about this and so many other facts, say it's just a small minority in their government and smile. Officials have been doing nothing but reassure and make all the right noises to the West, making promises and yet always breaking them.
This isn't about rogue elements in China, you know. They are autocratic. The Hawks established a plan to pretend weakness, get others to do all the heavy lifting for them, and get so strong, economically, that they will replace the West as the most dominant power in the world. They're actions speak powerfully and clearly. They have a long-term plan. Say whatever they need in order to get to the top, make sure they indoctrinate each generation to massively distrust other systems (first Russia, then America) and take the slow path to total dominance.
Again, this shouldn't come as any surprise. Any country with designs on power will go about things in a similar way.
But here's the thing: this book is written by someone who has been deep in the policy-and-analysis end of things in America. He had his own disillusionment, first believing that the best road was through peace and mutual aid. When the weight of such proof of duplicity in united fronts became too obvious, he spoke out. More and more proof is everywhere. 70% of all electronic intrusions come from China. There is near-total disdain for ecological problems including the cancer rates in their own population caused by industrial pollution. Free speech is nearly nonexistent. There has been a near-total eradication of the very IDEA of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in China. Those dissidents who DID want to have an honest partnership with the world were subsequently murdered or imprisoned.
And all the while, official faces try to disarm and downplay all this and say all the right things to get more money, aid, and technology. (Although, I'm sure by now, technology isn't all that required. They send tons of students abroad every year to get as much as they want.)
And the poor-me scenario? Their GNP tripled between 1997 and 2007. And yet, they're still playing the same card. Coal power is blanketing the skies in neighboring countries.
I'm not being alarmist. Anyone who keeps up with the news can piece together a much larger picture than I can in a short review. I find it very telling that both Russia and China are united in painting America as devils, however, and not in some piecemeal way. I'm talking systematic, state-sponsored propaganda.
October 19, 2022
An other review: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...
Oh yes, I have seen or heard people from the Chinese mainland (who are young, well off, highly educated and had even gone studying oversea) talk about how human rights doesn't matter, the poor farmers, workers and their struggle does't matter, freedom of expression etc doesn't matter, all that matters is for CCPChina to look 'good' and 'strong' to the outside world. If you ever tried to expose the negative sides of the mainland Chinese society, then you are a 'traitor' or you are a spy for America. Sometime it isn't so hard for a person to become a traitor, you know, writing a diary during the WuHanVirus lockdown and publishing your writing is all it would take: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/bu...
Frankly, it is really tiring to deal with people with such mindset.
A few basic things about this book and CCPChina:
(i) when we talk about ‘China’, it is easy to picture the ancient Chinese civilization, the rich and eventful history, the awesome cultures and art, the beautiful landscapes, the hard working Chinese people etc etc. But we aren’t talking about any of the above, what we are talking about here is the ‘CCPChina’, a totalitarian regime which has hijacked the country, the cultures and the people ever since 1949, which essentially doesn't have much to do with said ancient history and cultures (instead they had destroyed much of it during the Culture Revolution).
And be very careful here, because CCP always wants to mix up ‘CCPChina’ with ‘China’ and claims their version of China is the one and only version.
Article: Chinese Culture Doesn’t Belong to the Chinese Government
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-...
(ii) whenever the CCP talks to you about a 'win-win' situation, it never means 'I win and you also win', it actually means 'I win once, then I win twice, then I look forward to winning the third and more rounds from you'.
(iii) For propaganda's sake, CCP tells the mainland citizens America (and Japan as well) has always wanted to colonize and enslave China. Even though the USA had helped China fighting imperial Japan during WWII, etc.
I appreciate the author's knowledge on the Chinese language and culture, it must take him years of efforts just to master the language alone. That's it.
Furthermore, I believe more people outside of China must come to realize exactly how much the CCP hates America (and the other white-skinned people) for merely being the top-dog on the food-chains and how this hatred is systemically taught to the civilians who live in the Chinese mainland in the past 50 years. Plus everyone else who doesn't share this hatred is in danger of being labeled as 'Han traitor'.
Previously, I was aware of how the history education in CCPChina is full of lies, lies, lies and damn lies, but I wasn't aware of the fact that it is really so fucked up to THAT kind of level and how this kind of fake-news-history-education coupling with censorship has twisted people's world view and even their moral. I thank the author for opening my eyes.
Only after you put this kind of hatred into consideration, you can have a better understanding on what CCP has been doing.
PS: But I don't believe for a second that USA government has been giving CCP all these passes and ignoring the human right issues out of the goodness of their hearts, like the author more or less claimed in this book.
I mean, cheap labors and a massive potential market are more likely the answer.
If you were interested in knowing how CCPChina and their spies abuse the high trust social system, here is a bit of an example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq...
To say the very least, do read The Art of War ! You will be impressed by how much wisdom and observation can be distilled down to one thin book!
I could have said more, but given the current situation of my society, I would rather not risk getting arrested, or lose my job.
Extra: what we can do
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/worl...
my review for Death By China, by Peter Navarro: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...
Empire “values order over freedom, ethics over law, and elite governance over democracy and human rights.
Oh yes, I have seen or heard people from the Chinese mainland (who are young, well off, highly educated and had even gone studying oversea) talk about how human rights doesn't matter, the poor farmers, workers and their struggle does't matter, freedom of expression etc doesn't matter, all that matters is for CCPChina to look 'good' and 'strong' to the outside world. If you ever tried to expose the negative sides of the mainland Chinese society, then you are a 'traitor' or you are a spy for America. Sometime it isn't so hard for a person to become a traitor, you know, writing a diary during the WuHanVirus lockdown and publishing your writing is all it would take: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/bu...
Frankly, it is really tiring to deal with people with such mindset.
A few basic things about this book and CCPChina:
(i) when we talk about ‘China’, it is easy to picture the ancient Chinese civilization, the rich and eventful history, the awesome cultures and art, the beautiful landscapes, the hard working Chinese people etc etc. But we aren’t talking about any of the above, what we are talking about here is the ‘CCPChina’, a totalitarian regime which has hijacked the country, the cultures and the people ever since 1949, which essentially doesn't have much to do with said ancient history and cultures (instead they had destroyed much of it during the Culture Revolution).
And be very careful here, because CCP always wants to mix up ‘CCPChina’ with ‘China’ and claims their version of China is the one and only version.
Article: Chinese Culture Doesn’t Belong to the Chinese Government
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-...
(ii) whenever the CCP talks to you about a 'win-win' situation, it never means 'I win and you also win', it actually means 'I win once, then I win twice, then I look forward to winning the third and more rounds from you'.
(iii) For propaganda's sake, CCP tells the mainland citizens America (and Japan as well) has always wanted to colonize and enslave China. Even though the USA had helped China fighting imperial Japan during WWII, etc.
I appreciate the author's knowledge on the Chinese language and culture, it must take him years of efforts just to master the language alone. That's it.
Furthermore, I believe more people outside of China must come to realize exactly how much the CCP hates America (and the other white-skinned people) for merely being the top-dog on the food-chains and how this hatred is systemically taught to the civilians who live in the Chinese mainland in the past 50 years. Plus everyone else who doesn't share this hatred is in danger of being labeled as 'Han traitor'.
Previously, I was aware of how the history education in CCPChina is full of lies, lies, lies and damn lies, but I wasn't aware of the fact that it is really so fucked up to THAT kind of level and how this kind of fake-news-history-education coupling with censorship has twisted people's world view and even their moral. I thank the author for opening my eyes.
Only after you put this kind of hatred into consideration, you can have a better understanding on what CCP has been doing.
PS: But I don't believe for a second that USA government has been giving CCP all these passes and ignoring the human right issues out of the goodness of their hearts, like the author more or less claimed in this book.
I mean, cheap labors and a massive potential market are more likely the answer.
If you were interested in knowing how CCPChina and their spies abuse the high trust social system, here is a bit of an example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq...
To say the very least, do read The Art of War ! You will be impressed by how much wisdom and observation can be distilled down to one thin book!
I could have said more, but given the current situation of my society, I would rather not risk getting arrested, or lose my job.
Extra: what we can do
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/worl...
my review for Death By China, by Peter Navarro: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...
April 28, 2015
The book's main flaw is that it is essentially a case of the pot calling the kettle black. It is a paranoid analysis of the current Sino-American situation (or shi) by a China dove turned hawk, who is now alarmed the US is losing its grip on overwhelming geopolitical power. A person who once acted as a spy complaining about subterfuge and deception is rather self-serving. But the theme of good vs. evil allows the good side to be excused for doing the same thing because its "intention" is good. A fog of self-delusion about its goodness (i.e. moral superiority stemming from amnesia of its past bad deeds along with the Christian messiah complex) is what blinds the US from fully seeing the world as it is. In other words, the US is no different from China, except the US is in a position to do more damage.
February 10, 2015
This review is long because the book deserves it. Most of the review will involve disagreement, because agreement is easy to express, while disagreement requires elaboration. But as a whole, this book is interesting and I recommend it without reservation.
Having heard much about this book, I was compelled to read it in one sitting. The obvious strengths of this book are the expertise and credibility of the author, and the truly original material brought to light within the book, some of it declassified specifically for the publication of this book. The author has had a front-row seat to Sino-American diplomacy for forty years, and the stories are exhilarating, as if lifted from a spy novel.
But ultimately, this book is not a memoir, it is meant to be read as a foreign policy prescriptive. As to the main message of the book - that China seeks to displace the US as the world hegemon through a patient accumulation of national power - the author lays out a convincing case that should give any reader pause. However, the book has some weaknesses that prevent it from being as maximally persuasive as it could be.
But first, a step back. This book cannot be evaluated without reference to its self-admitted impetus and foil, On China, by Kissinger. Kissinger's book, like this one, is half-storytelling, half-whitepaper. Kissinger's main strength is in describing Chinese strategic problems from the Chinese perspective, giving their actions rationality, and ultimately, showing something close to sympathy. He regards Mao and Zhou Enlai as peers who play the game well, and gives them professional respect, even admiration. However, one can never shake the feeling that this intelligent man has been less-that-truthful. As someone still very much still in the game, his book seems like a bit of knowing triangulation, with various layers of signalling buried within the book, intended for different audiences. His prescriptions at the end read more like diplomacy than honesty - the book is simply an extension of his day job.
In contrast, Pillsbury has an admirable directness to his book. His cards are on the table, he appears to have no greater ambition that to get the truth out. His policy prescriptions seem heartfelt and written in good faith. His weakness is a certain one-note myopia. Let's recall the state of affairs during Nixon: Vietnam, stagflation, OPEC embargoes. Or how about Reagan: West Germany and Japan in economic ascendancy, a conciliatory Gorbachev. These US-China diplomatic moves happened in the context of greater US strategic goals, and one cannot accurately assess the success of Chinese subterfuge without analyzing this context.
This leads to another point, left unexplored in the book. Pillsbury gives a few examples of Western intelligence choosing to believe a Russian or Chinese false defector over the real one. Pillsbury points out the cause - the false defector tells Americans what they want to hear. But why is this so effective? It is precisely due to this one-note myopia. In the euphoria of the post-Cold War Clinton years, the US was busy counting out the peace dividend and reading Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man. Of course China could convince America of the inevitability of Chinese democracy, as the American policy establishment had already done a through job convincing itself. It is this same self-belief that (I believe) led to the various blunders of the present day, from deposing Gaddafi and Mubarak in the name of the Arab Spring, to finally Assad, Maliki, and ISIS. Unlike Kissinger, who can seamlessly slip into Zhou Enlai's shoes and sympathize with his plight, Pillsbury can't see the Chinese view. For a book that claims to understand the secret machinations of the Chinese government, this is a significant problem. He explains the application of ancient Chinese texts to modern Chinese thinking, but he doesn't acknowledge or give any agreement to the fundamental Chinese motivations - worries about the US fomenting rebellion in China, for example. To Pillsbury, it's just paranoia. So close, yet so far.
Pillsbury quotes one Russian joke about the future Politburo being all Chinese. He remarks that he later began to appreciate the truth within it. That reminded me of another Russian joke that has gained some notoriety.
Q: Why are there no revolutions in America?
A: Because there are no American embassies in America.
It seems that Pillsbury wouldn't appreciate this joke, while Kissinger would give a winking chuckle.
Personal Observations:
The greatest impression this book gave me was the maturity and competence of Soviet intelligence. They understood and anticipated the Chinese pivot to the US, and apparently took it in stride, understanding that it was in the natural interests of both the US and China, and simply sought to limit the damage, rather than expend resources in a futile effort to prevent it. I imagine a similar level of competence is at play in the current Ukrainian conflict, and in Russia's handling of both China and Germany.
Having heard much about this book, I was compelled to read it in one sitting. The obvious strengths of this book are the expertise and credibility of the author, and the truly original material brought to light within the book, some of it declassified specifically for the publication of this book. The author has had a front-row seat to Sino-American diplomacy for forty years, and the stories are exhilarating, as if lifted from a spy novel.
But ultimately, this book is not a memoir, it is meant to be read as a foreign policy prescriptive. As to the main message of the book - that China seeks to displace the US as the world hegemon through a patient accumulation of national power - the author lays out a convincing case that should give any reader pause. However, the book has some weaknesses that prevent it from being as maximally persuasive as it could be.
But first, a step back. This book cannot be evaluated without reference to its self-admitted impetus and foil, On China, by Kissinger. Kissinger's book, like this one, is half-storytelling, half-whitepaper. Kissinger's main strength is in describing Chinese strategic problems from the Chinese perspective, giving their actions rationality, and ultimately, showing something close to sympathy. He regards Mao and Zhou Enlai as peers who play the game well, and gives them professional respect, even admiration. However, one can never shake the feeling that this intelligent man has been less-that-truthful. As someone still very much still in the game, his book seems like a bit of knowing triangulation, with various layers of signalling buried within the book, intended for different audiences. His prescriptions at the end read more like diplomacy than honesty - the book is simply an extension of his day job.
In contrast, Pillsbury has an admirable directness to his book. His cards are on the table, he appears to have no greater ambition that to get the truth out. His policy prescriptions seem heartfelt and written in good faith. His weakness is a certain one-note myopia. Let's recall the state of affairs during Nixon: Vietnam, stagflation, OPEC embargoes. Or how about Reagan: West Germany and Japan in economic ascendancy, a conciliatory Gorbachev. These US-China diplomatic moves happened in the context of greater US strategic goals, and one cannot accurately assess the success of Chinese subterfuge without analyzing this context.
This leads to another point, left unexplored in the book. Pillsbury gives a few examples of Western intelligence choosing to believe a Russian or Chinese false defector over the real one. Pillsbury points out the cause - the false defector tells Americans what they want to hear. But why is this so effective? It is precisely due to this one-note myopia. In the euphoria of the post-Cold War Clinton years, the US was busy counting out the peace dividend and reading Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man. Of course China could convince America of the inevitability of Chinese democracy, as the American policy establishment had already done a through job convincing itself. It is this same self-belief that (I believe) led to the various blunders of the present day, from deposing Gaddafi and Mubarak in the name of the Arab Spring, to finally Assad, Maliki, and ISIS. Unlike Kissinger, who can seamlessly slip into Zhou Enlai's shoes and sympathize with his plight, Pillsbury can't see the Chinese view. For a book that claims to understand the secret machinations of the Chinese government, this is a significant problem. He explains the application of ancient Chinese texts to modern Chinese thinking, but he doesn't acknowledge or give any agreement to the fundamental Chinese motivations - worries about the US fomenting rebellion in China, for example. To Pillsbury, it's just paranoia. So close, yet so far.
Pillsbury quotes one Russian joke about the future Politburo being all Chinese. He remarks that he later began to appreciate the truth within it. That reminded me of another Russian joke that has gained some notoriety.
Q: Why are there no revolutions in America?
A: Because there are no American embassies in America.
It seems that Pillsbury wouldn't appreciate this joke, while Kissinger would give a winking chuckle.
Personal Observations:
The greatest impression this book gave me was the maturity and competence of Soviet intelligence. They understood and anticipated the Chinese pivot to the US, and apparently took it in stride, understanding that it was in the natural interests of both the US and China, and simply sought to limit the damage, rather than expend resources in a futile effort to prevent it. I imagine a similar level of competence is at play in the current Ukrainian conflict, and in Russia's handling of both China and Germany.
April 2, 2019
Listened to about 2 hours of this. There are two key problems with the book.
The first is that it seems like almost all of the content depends on just one source, the author. There are a bunch of red flags in the text that point to this, like the conspiratorial language that's used, the author's insistence that other China experts don't understand Chinese nearly as well as he does (and so should be ignored), or claims that others have been successfully 'duped' by China's public statements but that Pillsbury has spoken to former USSR operatives and knows what's really going on. Having a single source doesn't always mean a book is problematic; philosophical or autobiographical texts tend to have this same attribute and can work fine. But when you make a bunch of claims about a nation of over a billion people based on only personal experience and a claimed better understanding of Mandarin, I think it's fair to cry foul.
The second deals with the thesis of the book. Throughout the beginning chapters, Pillsbury keeps talking about how China wants to overtake the US, how they're not OK playing second-fiddle, how China has tried to deceive the US into thinking they don't have world leader ambitions, etc. The language and tone in which the author presents these ideas is meant to evoke fear, concern, and surprise on the side of the reader. But this is totally unsurprising to me: wouldn't it make sense that China intends to be #1, especially when it has the greatest population? Becoming the world's leading power is a very reasonable long-term goal for any nation-state. Pillsbury's presentation is akin a basketball coach telling his players things like "the other team wants to beat us!" and "you don't get it, they want to be the champions, they're not OK taking second place!" I think most people would be confused that the coach would think players need to be reminded of this key attribute of any competition.
Not recommended.
The first is that it seems like almost all of the content depends on just one source, the author. There are a bunch of red flags in the text that point to this, like the conspiratorial language that's used, the author's insistence that other China experts don't understand Chinese nearly as well as he does (and so should be ignored), or claims that others have been successfully 'duped' by China's public statements but that Pillsbury has spoken to former USSR operatives and knows what's really going on. Having a single source doesn't always mean a book is problematic; philosophical or autobiographical texts tend to have this same attribute and can work fine. But when you make a bunch of claims about a nation of over a billion people based on only personal experience and a claimed better understanding of Mandarin, I think it's fair to cry foul.
The second deals with the thesis of the book. Throughout the beginning chapters, Pillsbury keeps talking about how China wants to overtake the US, how they're not OK playing second-fiddle, how China has tried to deceive the US into thinking they don't have world leader ambitions, etc. The language and tone in which the author presents these ideas is meant to evoke fear, concern, and surprise on the side of the reader. But this is totally unsurprising to me: wouldn't it make sense that China intends to be #1, especially when it has the greatest population? Becoming the world's leading power is a very reasonable long-term goal for any nation-state. Pillsbury's presentation is akin a basketball coach telling his players things like "the other team wants to beat us!" and "you don't get it, they want to be the champions, they're not OK taking second place!" I think most people would be confused that the coach would think players need to be reminded of this key attribute of any competition.
Not recommended.
Want to read
September 19, 2019Tao Xie Professor, at Beijing Foreign Studies University, on the book: "a total conspiracy theory".
Beijing paper cover 'Outsider strikes back'
"We're in year 65". Thence 35 more years to go.
2049: ends marathon.
With Abe's rush-visit to the USA next week, many wonder about Asia; how will Trump handle the "pivot"? Some speak of "unpredictability", some of "isolationism"; others about "the deal-maker" or even the "outsourcing". True, many "unknowns". The Dragon is watching, in the meantime.
UPDATE
2019
Pillsbury had a point. No doubts. But, for how long this Trade War?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...
Beijing paper cover 'Outsider strikes back'
"We're in year 65". Thence 35 more years to go.
2049: ends marathon.
With Abe's rush-visit to the USA next week, many wonder about Asia; how will Trump handle the "pivot"? Some speak of "unpredictability", some of "isolationism"; others about "the deal-maker" or even the "outsourcing". True, many "unknowns". The Dragon is watching, in the meantime.
UPDATE
2019
Pillsbury had a point. No doubts. But, for how long this Trade War?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...
January 6, 2019
“The best way to win a race is to be the only one that knows there is a race”
This book should give us all pause as to what China is doing across the world and the perception it is laying out to all observers.
Do yourself a favor and read this book. If you have any interest on what’s going to happen in the next 20 years, a big player involves one that is in this book.
This book should give us all pause as to what China is doing across the world and the perception it is laying out to all observers.
Do yourself a favor and read this book. If you have any interest on what’s going to happen in the next 20 years, a big player involves one that is in this book.
Read
November 12, 2018Not finished yet but it won’t let me write more than 420 characters in the update box.
So.... I’m confused. The author tries to make the case that “China has been duping us all by pretending to not be interested in global hegemony, while in reality it is and it’s always been”. My question is : so what? It’s not like this is a terrible secret that changes everything.
In fact, given the direction and the unstoppable force of the Chinese economy, China’s upcoming economic hegemony is out there, for all to see. Of course world hegemony is a relative term - do you mean military? Economic? Political influence? For example, the US global hegemony in the last 30 years has not been “absolute” in every corner of the globe at all.
If the book’s point is that China’s internal hawks are stronger than what we think, ok, I’d buy that. But I don’t see this as an incredible revelation as the author seems to suggest.
So.... I’m confused. The author tries to make the case that “China has been duping us all by pretending to not be interested in global hegemony, while in reality it is and it’s always been”. My question is : so what? It’s not like this is a terrible secret that changes everything.
In fact, given the direction and the unstoppable force of the Chinese economy, China’s upcoming economic hegemony is out there, for all to see. Of course world hegemony is a relative term - do you mean military? Economic? Political influence? For example, the US global hegemony in the last 30 years has not been “absolute” in every corner of the globe at all.
If the book’s point is that China’s internal hawks are stronger than what we think, ok, I’d buy that. But I don’t see this as an incredible revelation as the author seems to suggest.
July 4, 2022
IMHO this is the most important book on foreign policy to have been published in the past decade. Cogently written, this book both informs and sets off alarm bells. Highly recommended.
May 20, 2019
Pillsbury used to be supportive of China, but later got disillusioned with it. He was welcomed when he was supportive, but denied visa and access when he became critical. According to Pillsbury:
1. China is patient and can plan for 100 years. and it knows how to play Go (wei qi) very well. All the friendly gestures are fake, and the politburo thinks America is the enemy, intent on suppressing its peaceful rise. He posited that all the American leaders had not been able to see though China’s real intention.
2. China had white washed the history of aggression, Tianmen Square massacre, and other human rights abuses against Falungong, Christians, minorities and dissidents. Journalists who do not follow will be blacklisted, so a lot of self-censorship was done. On the other hand, the moment Chinese people travel, they can access all these information anyway.
3. There is a section in the party that controls news that is released locally to control how foreigners see China. This point is very very strange.
4. China builds Confucius Institutes to promote its language and values. Universities receive money and free staff and material, but must toe the party’s line: avoid mentioning Dalai Lama, Taiwan independence and human rights of China. Some of them are alleged to spy for China and even interfere with the politics of the host country. Actually the British (BBC) and America (Voice of America) do the same all the time.
5. China likes to appear weak to bide its time, but when it has the upper hand it will show its true strength. But... what’s the alternative?
6. Pillsbury has been involved in war games in the Pentagon, playing the Chinese side for year 2030. Whereas America wins every single time when wars are fought conventionally, China wins often when wars are fought unconventionally. He thinks now US: China power is 10:1, but by mid century it will be 1:1 and then China will be stronger... China is developing or already has anti-satellite missiles, laser weapons, anti-ship stealth missiles and Shkval supersonic torpedos, electromagnetic pulse weapons and cyberattack capabilities. And all those with a fraction of the American budget.
7. China does business with everyone, including American’s sworn enemies. It supplied weapon and anti-weapon jammers to Saddam Hussein, built telephone infrastructure for the Taliban, and even dares to trade with dictators. Well, America used to supply weapons to Saddam Hussein, and support all sorts of dictators as long as they are pro-American...
8. China is now the biggest exporter of green house gases, and when it becomes stronger more of the smog will be exported. This is unfortunately a often repeated accusation: the fact is that the per capita green house production is far higher in the developed world... Also China had signed the Paris agreement... And Donald Trump had left it.
9. China pollutes and its factories dump toxic wastes into its rivers. All these wastes are going to affect surrounding countries. Actually China is more worried about its pollution problem than it affecting other countries.
10. China joined the World Trade Organisation by supporting American politicians but never followed the rules. It supported national champions just like Japan and Korea, by protecting them from competition, supplying excess liquidity to them, and manipulating its exchange rate to make their output cheap. It steals other countries’ economical secrets.
Pillsbury’s viewpoint seems to have become the dominant viewpoint. Thus Trump’s ongoing trade war and the banning of Huawei in America’s 5G war. It is receiving bipartisan support. It is going to be more and more difficult for China and America to work with each other. All of us are warned. Singapore’s founder Lee Kuan Yew’s prediction of a self-assertive China is coming true; if America is going to prevent its rise, the world will be in turmoil for years to come.
1. China is patient and can plan for 100 years. and it knows how to play Go (wei qi) very well. All the friendly gestures are fake, and the politburo thinks America is the enemy, intent on suppressing its peaceful rise. He posited that all the American leaders had not been able to see though China’s real intention.
2. China had white washed the history of aggression, Tianmen Square massacre, and other human rights abuses against Falungong, Christians, minorities and dissidents. Journalists who do not follow will be blacklisted, so a lot of self-censorship was done. On the other hand, the moment Chinese people travel, they can access all these information anyway.
3. There is a section in the party that controls news that is released locally to control how foreigners see China. This point is very very strange.
4. China builds Confucius Institutes to promote its language and values. Universities receive money and free staff and material, but must toe the party’s line: avoid mentioning Dalai Lama, Taiwan independence and human rights of China. Some of them are alleged to spy for China and even interfere with the politics of the host country. Actually the British (BBC) and America (Voice of America) do the same all the time.
5. China likes to appear weak to bide its time, but when it has the upper hand it will show its true strength. But... what’s the alternative?
6. Pillsbury has been involved in war games in the Pentagon, playing the Chinese side for year 2030. Whereas America wins every single time when wars are fought conventionally, China wins often when wars are fought unconventionally. He thinks now US: China power is 10:1, but by mid century it will be 1:1 and then China will be stronger... China is developing or already has anti-satellite missiles, laser weapons, anti-ship stealth missiles and Shkval supersonic torpedos, electromagnetic pulse weapons and cyberattack capabilities. And all those with a fraction of the American budget.
7. China does business with everyone, including American’s sworn enemies. It supplied weapon and anti-weapon jammers to Saddam Hussein, built telephone infrastructure for the Taliban, and even dares to trade with dictators. Well, America used to supply weapons to Saddam Hussein, and support all sorts of dictators as long as they are pro-American...
8. China is now the biggest exporter of green house gases, and when it becomes stronger more of the smog will be exported. This is unfortunately a often repeated accusation: the fact is that the per capita green house production is far higher in the developed world... Also China had signed the Paris agreement... And Donald Trump had left it.
9. China pollutes and its factories dump toxic wastes into its rivers. All these wastes are going to affect surrounding countries. Actually China is more worried about its pollution problem than it affecting other countries.
10. China joined the World Trade Organisation by supporting American politicians but never followed the rules. It supported national champions just like Japan and Korea, by protecting them from competition, supplying excess liquidity to them, and manipulating its exchange rate to make their output cheap. It steals other countries’ economical secrets.
Pillsbury’s viewpoint seems to have become the dominant viewpoint. Thus Trump’s ongoing trade war and the banning of Huawei in America’s 5G war. It is receiving bipartisan support. It is going to be more and more difficult for China and America to work with each other. All of us are warned. Singapore’s founder Lee Kuan Yew’s prediction of a self-assertive China is coming true; if America is going to prevent its rise, the world will be in turmoil for years to come.
June 24, 2019
“It is China’s intention to be the greatest power in the world and to be accepted as China, not as an honorary member of the West.… At the core of their mind-set is their world before colonization and the exploitation and humiliation that brought. If you believe that there is going to be a revolution of some sort in China for democracy, you are wrong.… The Chinese people want a revived China. Their great advantage is not in military influence but in their economic influence.… Their influence can only grow and grow beyond the capabilities of America.” - Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore as quoted by this book.
Let us rewind a bit - When the Berlin Wall came down and Cold War ended in 1989, 2 books came about predicting the future of the world's politics :-
a) The End of History and the Last Man - by Francis Fukuyama which said that liberal democracy had won decisively as an idea over other forms of government and that the nations of the world would keep moving towards it.
b) The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order by Samuel Huntington which said that the new world order would be defined by civilizational borders and clashes between them.
I remember reading a hard realist Indian leader writing in an Op-ed "China's foreign policy is based on deception." The author's thesis is that China has deceived the world and continues to deceive wrt its future intentions. While the West especially the pot-smokers, reality-deniers AKA the left-liberals presume that it is moving towards liberal democracy, it is NOT. For that matter, unfortunately, even if you think "The Clash of Civilizations" idea is untrue, it is beyond doubt that "History Zinda hai" :) Liberalism is considered a Western idea and regimes are coming out with their own value-systems - Islamic, Chinese, Hindutva, or based on national identities. And if a regime can get its economics right, it can get away with illiberalism.
China AKA The Middle Kingdom intends to dominate the world economically and militarily in a World Order where it occupies the center. While this may not sound a problem, it becomes a problem when you consider that the Chinese do not believe in liberalism, human rights or fair play in foreign policy. This was also the sense I got from a book I read recently Belt and Road: The Sinews of Chinese Power.
Wish though that the author had toned down some statements that felt like exaggerations. Ironically, sometimes he felt like an American hawk himself.
Let us rewind a bit - When the Berlin Wall came down and Cold War ended in 1989, 2 books came about predicting the future of the world's politics :-
a) The End of History and the Last Man - by Francis Fukuyama which said that liberal democracy had won decisively as an idea over other forms of government and that the nations of the world would keep moving towards it.
b) The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order by Samuel Huntington which said that the new world order would be defined by civilizational borders and clashes between them.
I remember reading a hard realist Indian leader writing in an Op-ed "China's foreign policy is based on deception." The author's thesis is that China has deceived the world and continues to deceive wrt its future intentions. While the West especially the pot-smokers, reality-deniers AKA the left-liberals presume that it is moving towards liberal democracy, it is NOT. For that matter, unfortunately, even if you think "The Clash of Civilizations" idea is untrue, it is beyond doubt that "History Zinda hai" :) Liberalism is considered a Western idea and regimes are coming out with their own value-systems - Islamic, Chinese, Hindutva, or based on national identities. And if a regime can get its economics right, it can get away with illiberalism.
China AKA The Middle Kingdom intends to dominate the world economically and militarily in a World Order where it occupies the center. While this may not sound a problem, it becomes a problem when you consider that the Chinese do not believe in liberalism, human rights or fair play in foreign policy. This was also the sense I got from a book I read recently Belt and Road: The Sinews of Chinese Power.
Wish though that the author had toned down some statements that felt like exaggerations. Ironically, sometimes he felt like an American hawk himself.
March 24, 2019
In The Hundred-Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury has done an excellent job explaining China’s long-term plan to catch-up to and replace the United States as the single global hegemon – from both an economic and military standpoint and how China’s plan involves using the United States to achieve their goals. Pillsbury even admits that as a “US China expert”, he was fooled by China for many years.
Granted it is one man’s point of view, but it is one that should be taken seriously. Hopefully people in leadership roles in our government are taking Pillsbury’s views into consideration before it is too late.
I highly recommend.
Granted it is one man’s point of view, but it is one that should be taken seriously. Hopefully people in leadership roles in our government are taking Pillsbury’s views into consideration before it is too late.
I highly recommend.
May 7, 2020
This was an absolute powerhouse of a book. Author Michael Pillsbury is a former US Government official with 4+ decades of experience in dealing with China, through various administrations and capacities.
Pillsworth lays out his thesis early on in the book:
"As I assembled clues contradicting the conventional narrative about China that I had always believed, I starting connecting the pieces of an alternative narrative of roughly the past four decades. Over time, I discovered proposals by Chinese hawks (ying pai) to the Chinese leadership to mislead and manipulate American policymakers to obtain intelligence and military, technological, and economic assistance.
I learned that these hawks had been advising Chinese leaders, beginning with Mao Zedong, to avenge a century of humiliation and aspired to replace the United States as the economic, military, and political leader of the world by the year 2049 (the one hundredth anniversary of the Communist Revolution). This plan became known as “the Hundred-Year Marathon.” It is a plan that has been implemented by the Communist Party leadership from the beginning of its relationship with the United States.
The goal is to avenge or “wipe clean” (xi xue) past foreign humiliations. Then China will set up a world order that will be fair to China, a world without American global supremacy, and revise the U.S.-dominated economic and geopolitical world order founded at Bretton Woods and San Francisco at the end of World War II."
The book educates the naïve reader about Chinese culture and military stratagems; citing many pivotal books central to Chinese culture and history.
He paints a damning picture of obvious Chinese ambitions of global supremacy, and a deep-seated desire to overturn American hegemony. Chapter 1 opens with the quote: “There cannot be two suns in the sky, nor two emperors on the earth" - Confucius.
"The Hundred Year Marathon" carries on where Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order left off; The struggle for global supremacy in the 21st century. With the hegemon of Western Civilization - The United States, more decadent and reluctant to assert its values, and a hungry and ambitious China, whose economy and military are poised to eclipse that of America's by 2050.
This is an extremely important book. Even more so in the current and post COVID-19 climate of 2020. Author Michael Pillsbury is sounding the alarm here. What will a world without Pax Americana look like? A world where China, and not America exports its culture, economy, and morality to the rest of the world? A collectivist civilization largely unconcerned with freedom, liberty, human rights, or ethical standards of any kind...
It's not something I would like to picture. It should make you uncomfortable, too.
This book is an absolute must-read. The writing is excellent. The book is extremely well done.
5 stars, and a spot on my "favorites" shelf.
Pillsworth lays out his thesis early on in the book:
"As I assembled clues contradicting the conventional narrative about China that I had always believed, I starting connecting the pieces of an alternative narrative of roughly the past four decades. Over time, I discovered proposals by Chinese hawks (ying pai) to the Chinese leadership to mislead and manipulate American policymakers to obtain intelligence and military, technological, and economic assistance.
I learned that these hawks had been advising Chinese leaders, beginning with Mao Zedong, to avenge a century of humiliation and aspired to replace the United States as the economic, military, and political leader of the world by the year 2049 (the one hundredth anniversary of the Communist Revolution). This plan became known as “the Hundred-Year Marathon.” It is a plan that has been implemented by the Communist Party leadership from the beginning of its relationship with the United States.
The goal is to avenge or “wipe clean” (xi xue) past foreign humiliations. Then China will set up a world order that will be fair to China, a world without American global supremacy, and revise the U.S.-dominated economic and geopolitical world order founded at Bretton Woods and San Francisco at the end of World War II."
The book educates the naïve reader about Chinese culture and military stratagems; citing many pivotal books central to Chinese culture and history.
He paints a damning picture of obvious Chinese ambitions of global supremacy, and a deep-seated desire to overturn American hegemony. Chapter 1 opens with the quote: “There cannot be two suns in the sky, nor two emperors on the earth" - Confucius.
"The Hundred Year Marathon" carries on where Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order left off; The struggle for global supremacy in the 21st century. With the hegemon of Western Civilization - The United States, more decadent and reluctant to assert its values, and a hungry and ambitious China, whose economy and military are poised to eclipse that of America's by 2050.
This is an extremely important book. Even more so in the current and post COVID-19 climate of 2020. Author Michael Pillsbury is sounding the alarm here. What will a world without Pax Americana look like? A world where China, and not America exports its culture, economy, and morality to the rest of the world? A collectivist civilization largely unconcerned with freedom, liberty, human rights, or ethical standards of any kind...
It's not something I would like to picture. It should make you uncomfortable, too.
This book is an absolute must-read. The writing is excellent. The book is extremely well done.
5 stars, and a spot on my "favorites" shelf.
July 10, 2020
“Chinese literature on strategy from Sun Tzu through Mao Tse-tung has emphasized deception more than many military doctrines. Chinese deception is oriented mainly toward inducing the enemy to act inexpediently and less toward protecting the integrity of one’s own plans. In other cultures, particularly Western, deception is used primarily with the intention of ensuring that one’s own forces can realize their maximum striking potential … the prevalent payoff of deception for the Chinese is that one does not have to use one’s own forces.… Chinese tend to shroud their means in secrecy and not publicize the day-to-day activities of those in power; for surprise and deception are assumed to be vital.”
The one hundred year marathon was extraordinary and worth every dollar and hour you invest in it. It will pay for itself if you pay attention to its message. Out of the list of books I read this year on this topic I believe this is at the top.
It is reassuring to know that we have guys like Pillsbury, Navarro, Ellis, Gertz, Bannon, Gibson, Spalding, Guo .... standing by giving us a heads up while most of us have our heads up our collective
a$$. While division among races here in the USA grows our enemy grows stronger by the hour. While we are distracted with nonsense, watching our cities & culture crumble our enemy is focused. This is now the 6th book I’ve read on China this year and I’m pretty sure we should, as Americans be aware of the goal China has to become the world Hegemonic power. Rather we will continue to watch what we’ve have built crumble before our very eyes and just hand it over, it doesn’t appear to me that the majority of American citizens have a clue of the threat staring them in the eyes, the real threat not the made up ones put there by the talking heads, their overpriced indoctrination degrees, or what their favorite sports team or pop star tells them. Wake up, wake up before it’s too late.
And may God Bless the United States of America, a true beacon of liberty & freedom, no matter what lies the snakes tell you, we are exceptional. 🇺🇸
The one hundred year marathon was extraordinary and worth every dollar and hour you invest in it. It will pay for itself if you pay attention to its message. Out of the list of books I read this year on this topic I believe this is at the top.
It is reassuring to know that we have guys like Pillsbury, Navarro, Ellis, Gertz, Bannon, Gibson, Spalding, Guo .... standing by giving us a heads up while most of us have our heads up our collective
a$$. While division among races here in the USA grows our enemy grows stronger by the hour. While we are distracted with nonsense, watching our cities & culture crumble our enemy is focused. This is now the 6th book I’ve read on China this year and I’m pretty sure we should, as Americans be aware of the goal China has to become the world Hegemonic power. Rather we will continue to watch what we’ve have built crumble before our very eyes and just hand it over, it doesn’t appear to me that the majority of American citizens have a clue of the threat staring them in the eyes, the real threat not the made up ones put there by the talking heads, their overpriced indoctrination degrees, or what their favorite sports team or pop star tells them. Wake up, wake up before it’s too late.
And may God Bless the United States of America, a true beacon of liberty & freedom, no matter what lies the snakes tell you, we are exceptional. 🇺🇸
November 7, 2019
This book is not worth reading. It selects specific pieces of information to support author’s extremist opinion. The book is not about the facts or history, but about propaganda and media.
August 2, 2021
The China book for people who only want the general sentiment of your average Fox News host
April 30, 2020
Michael Pillsbury’s fascinating, interesting, and personal account of his diplomatic experience with China, in his book The Hundred-Year Marathon, is captivating, challenging, disturbing, and enlightening. Pillsbury highlights with specific references and events, the West’s, and particularly the United States, misunderstanding and totally wishful thinking about how the West can control, lead, and dominate China. This is a fascinating book. It opens your eyes, and in doing so, raises enormous questions about our cultural misperceptions, and the stereotypes we place on Chinese people and their cultures. At this particular time and moment in world history, I believe that Pillsbury’s book should be required reading for all those individuals in positions of leadership whose pathways shall come across, engage with or brush up to this complex nation that is on a hundred-year marathon to dominate the world. This book is a superb case study on Chinese thinking and their dedication to the concept of introducing complacency with your opponents in order to avoid alerting them to your ultimate goals.
May 18, 2020
In October 2019, Xi Jinping warns efforts to divide China will end in 'crushed bodies and shattered bones'. Do you want to know why he said that? Do you want to know why they’re are riots in Hong Kong and Taiwan? Do you want to know why we no longer hear about the Tiananmen Square massacre, Tibet, or the Dalai Lama? Do you want to know why President Trump is taking such a hardline stance against Communist China? READ THIS BOOK! What an eye opener it is!!
August 15, 2022
China’s ambition to become the world’s dominant power has been there all along, virtually burned into the country’s cultural DNA and hiding, as Pillsbury says, in plain sight....The author is correct to assert that China constitutes, by far, the biggest national challenge to America’s position in the world today.
The Wall Street Journal
Provocative….detailed and rigorous. Pillsbury is right that for Washington, assessing the nature of China’s ambition, and responding to it effectively, may be the central foreign policy challenge of our time.
Newsweek
I really enjoyed your book....I very much advocate people read it because it's a very thoughtful book about what Chinese intentions are long-term.
Fareed Zakaria
Pungently written and rich in detail, this book deserves to enter the mainstream of
debate over the future of U.S. Chinese relations.
Foreign Affairs
The Hundred-Year Marathon looks at the critical issues of who is in fact making policy in the Chinese capital and, as a result, it will be read, analyzed and debated for years. Think of Pillsbury as our time’s Paul Revere.
Gordon Chang, The National Interest
This is a highly engaging and thought-provoking read. It does what few books do well, and that is to mix scholarship, policy, and memoir-style writing in an accessible but still intellectually rich fashion....Pillsbury....draws on his extensive knowledge of Chinese historical military writings and theory as well as his interactions with Chinese defectors and senior military officers to develop a compelling analytical defense of this thesis....In the end, whether you agree with Pillsbury or not, the book is well worth a careful read.
Elizabeth Economy, The Council on Foreign Relations
Despite dealing with a weighty subject, Pillsbury says everything that he wants to say....in this highly readable book. It deserves to be widely read and debated.
The Christian Science Monitor
Pillsbury’s scholarship is buttressed by an eye-popping amount of declassified material….Pillsbury’s key claim is that China….is methodically undertaking a 'hundred-year marathon' strategy to displace the United States as the global hegemon….The time is ripe to examine the trajectory of American relations with the world’s second-largest economy and the marathon is hardly over.
The Weekly Standard
A presentation of China’s hidden agenda grounded in the author’s longtime work at the U.S. Defense Department….Fodder for concerned thought.
Kirkus Reviews
This is without question the most important book written about Chinese strategy and foreign policy in years. Michael Pillsbury has spent more than four decades for the Pentagon and the CIA talking to and learning from a core of Chinese 'hard-liners' who may be the driving force behind Chinese foreign policy today under Xi Jinping. Based on meticulous scholarship and written in lively, engaging prose, this book offers a sobering corrective to what has long been the dominant, soothing narrative of Sino-American cooperation.
Robert Kagan
A provocative exploration of the historical sources of China’s grand strategy to become Number One.
Graham Allison, Director of the Harvard School for International Affairs
Michael Pillsbury has been meeting with, talking to, and studying the 'hawks' in China’s military and intelligence apparatus for more than four decades, since back when America and China were cooperating against the Soviet Union. In this fascinating, provocative new book, he lays out the hawks' views about the United States and their long-term strategies for overcoming American power by the middle of this century. In the process, the book challenges the wrong-headed assumptions in Washington about a gradually reforming China. Given the direction China has been taking in the past few years, Pillsbury’s book takes on immediate relevance.
James Mann
---
Amazon review
Detailed but unbalanced
In summary, he is a US hawk who is responsible for partly developing Trump's China policy. Nowhere is it explained that the US population enjoyed cheap imports and its labour and businesses could focus on higher value added products and technology. Nevertheless, a good book to read to understand how current US thinking towards China is shaped.
Denis Selinas
The Wall Street Journal
Provocative….detailed and rigorous. Pillsbury is right that for Washington, assessing the nature of China’s ambition, and responding to it effectively, may be the central foreign policy challenge of our time.
Newsweek
I really enjoyed your book....I very much advocate people read it because it's a very thoughtful book about what Chinese intentions are long-term.
Fareed Zakaria
Pungently written and rich in detail, this book deserves to enter the mainstream of
debate over the future of U.S. Chinese relations.
Foreign Affairs
The Hundred-Year Marathon looks at the critical issues of who is in fact making policy in the Chinese capital and, as a result, it will be read, analyzed and debated for years. Think of Pillsbury as our time’s Paul Revere.
Gordon Chang, The National Interest
This is a highly engaging and thought-provoking read. It does what few books do well, and that is to mix scholarship, policy, and memoir-style writing in an accessible but still intellectually rich fashion....Pillsbury....draws on his extensive knowledge of Chinese historical military writings and theory as well as his interactions with Chinese defectors and senior military officers to develop a compelling analytical defense of this thesis....In the end, whether you agree with Pillsbury or not, the book is well worth a careful read.
Elizabeth Economy, The Council on Foreign Relations
Despite dealing with a weighty subject, Pillsbury says everything that he wants to say....in this highly readable book. It deserves to be widely read and debated.
The Christian Science Monitor
Pillsbury’s scholarship is buttressed by an eye-popping amount of declassified material….Pillsbury’s key claim is that China….is methodically undertaking a 'hundred-year marathon' strategy to displace the United States as the global hegemon….The time is ripe to examine the trajectory of American relations with the world’s second-largest economy and the marathon is hardly over.
The Weekly Standard
A presentation of China’s hidden agenda grounded in the author’s longtime work at the U.S. Defense Department….Fodder for concerned thought.
Kirkus Reviews
This is without question the most important book written about Chinese strategy and foreign policy in years. Michael Pillsbury has spent more than four decades for the Pentagon and the CIA talking to and learning from a core of Chinese 'hard-liners' who may be the driving force behind Chinese foreign policy today under Xi Jinping. Based on meticulous scholarship and written in lively, engaging prose, this book offers a sobering corrective to what has long been the dominant, soothing narrative of Sino-American cooperation.
Robert Kagan
A provocative exploration of the historical sources of China’s grand strategy to become Number One.
Graham Allison, Director of the Harvard School for International Affairs
Michael Pillsbury has been meeting with, talking to, and studying the 'hawks' in China’s military and intelligence apparatus for more than four decades, since back when America and China were cooperating against the Soviet Union. In this fascinating, provocative new book, he lays out the hawks' views about the United States and their long-term strategies for overcoming American power by the middle of this century. In the process, the book challenges the wrong-headed assumptions in Washington about a gradually reforming China. Given the direction China has been taking in the past few years, Pillsbury’s book takes on immediate relevance.
James Mann
---
Amazon review
Detailed but unbalanced
In summary, he is a US hawk who is responsible for partly developing Trump's China policy. Nowhere is it explained that the US population enjoyed cheap imports and its labour and businesses could focus on higher value added products and technology. Nevertheless, a good book to read to understand how current US thinking towards China is shaped.
Denis Selinas
July 27, 2019
This book disappointed in many ways as I was looking for a genuine book about the rise of China but it turned out to be one of those propaganda books written by politicians and diplomats in the hope it will fall in the hands of a decision maker and will influence him into certain type of actions.
The book is trying to create a feeling of fear of China by trying to show it as this deceiving monster waiting for the moment to slaughter you.
Here are few of my remarks on the book:
— A book that starts by stating it was reviewed by the FBI, CIA and office of secretary of defense reviewed the book and that it's not mentioning any technics currently used by American intelligence is a major red flag, in other word it's a censored book.
- The author has this tendency to believe that no one beside him knows how to translate, first by claiming the Chinese misunderstood Darwin's tehory and made mistakes while translating it, as-well as claiming that presidential translators were incapable of accurately translate words. I find that hard to believe.
- The book is unrelentlesly trying to paint China as an evil state by claiming that Chinese hackers are always trying to spy on the US while in his own book he is admitting that the US is spending millions (or potentially billions) in recruiting Chinese spies. Plus if the US by its own admission is spying on it's own European allies and hacked Merkel and François Holland phones, don't tell me they are taking it easy on China.
- One of the funniest part of the book is by saying China is ungrateful towards the US. The support the US delivered to China had nothing to do with the will to make Communist China a better country, it was in exchange for China not siding with URSS and for other geopolitical reasons. Of course it was one of the many factors that led to their rise but it's not in anyway something they owe to the US.
- Stating that the confucius institute is used for pushing Chinese agenda is like complaining that water is wet. All countries are using institutes to push their agendas and politics. Why we expect the US to refuse to find institutions or countries because they violate it's values or works with regimes it deems enemies but we are outraged that China refuses to fund universities that bring opposition leader, Taiwanese or Tibetan separatists?
- The author literally saying that the world will be better with the US as leader is simply laughable especially if you are from regions of the world like I am that are constantly target of the US military attacks and bullying. The US is not morally better than China.
- The book is apparently blaming global warming on China in the moment that the USA withdrew from the Paris accord. While China is the biggest polluter in the world with 24% the US is number two with 17% but more importantly the US has much higher carbon emissions per capita than China, so Americans should look at themselves first before blaming others.
- Blaming China of support to the Taliban while it was the US that god them in power by financing and arming them as-well as al qaida during their war against urss.
- Another non-factual information about the book is saying; China will proliferate weapons for profit. Yet the numbers say otherwise, based on years of arms import statistics and governance indicators, found that the United States had a greater propensity than China to sell weapons to repressive African governments. The Chinese exported fewer weapons to Africa between 1992 and 2006 than Ukraine did.
- The book overall is claiming that China is this fake friend hiding a knife on its back while it's smiling to your face but fail to see that throughout his book he is talking about how the US was hoping for democracy to come as a result of the economic rise, how the us is embracing opposition leaders,... All of which are aiming at the end of the current regime in China, so the US is as bad of a friend as Chine.
The book is trying to create a feeling of fear of China by trying to show it as this deceiving monster waiting for the moment to slaughter you.
Here are few of my remarks on the book:
— A book that starts by stating it was reviewed by the FBI, CIA and office of secretary of defense reviewed the book and that it's not mentioning any technics currently used by American intelligence is a major red flag, in other word it's a censored book.
- The author has this tendency to believe that no one beside him knows how to translate, first by claiming the Chinese misunderstood Darwin's tehory and made mistakes while translating it, as-well as claiming that presidential translators were incapable of accurately translate words. I find that hard to believe.
- The book is unrelentlesly trying to paint China as an evil state by claiming that Chinese hackers are always trying to spy on the US while in his own book he is admitting that the US is spending millions (or potentially billions) in recruiting Chinese spies. Plus if the US by its own admission is spying on it's own European allies and hacked Merkel and François Holland phones, don't tell me they are taking it easy on China.
- One of the funniest part of the book is by saying China is ungrateful towards the US. The support the US delivered to China had nothing to do with the will to make Communist China a better country, it was in exchange for China not siding with URSS and for other geopolitical reasons. Of course it was one of the many factors that led to their rise but it's not in anyway something they owe to the US.
- Stating that the confucius institute is used for pushing Chinese agenda is like complaining that water is wet. All countries are using institutes to push their agendas and politics. Why we expect the US to refuse to find institutions or countries because they violate it's values or works with regimes it deems enemies but we are outraged that China refuses to fund universities that bring opposition leader, Taiwanese or Tibetan separatists?
- The author literally saying that the world will be better with the US as leader is simply laughable especially if you are from regions of the world like I am that are constantly target of the US military attacks and bullying. The US is not morally better than China.
- The book is apparently blaming global warming on China in the moment that the USA withdrew from the Paris accord. While China is the biggest polluter in the world with 24% the US is number two with 17% but more importantly the US has much higher carbon emissions per capita than China, so Americans should look at themselves first before blaming others.
- Blaming China of support to the Taliban while it was the US that god them in power by financing and arming them as-well as al qaida during their war against urss.
- Another non-factual information about the book is saying; China will proliferate weapons for profit. Yet the numbers say otherwise, based on years of arms import statistics and governance indicators, found that the United States had a greater propensity than China to sell weapons to repressive African governments. The Chinese exported fewer weapons to Africa between 1992 and 2006 than Ukraine did.
- The book overall is claiming that China is this fake friend hiding a knife on its back while it's smiling to your face but fail to see that throughout his book he is talking about how the US was hoping for democracy to come as a result of the economic rise, how the us is embracing opposition leaders,... All of which are aiming at the end of the current regime in China, so the US is as bad of a friend as Chine.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
October 13, 2016
The Hundred Year Marathon is an earth shattering account of how a whole generation of US government officials and China experts have gotten China completely wrong, and how US China policy is grounded in naivety and wishful thinking. Among the main misconceptions Pillsbury highlights in his book are;
China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear
The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese strategic thinking. China’s strategy is extremely patient, very far sighted, and relies on exploiting externalities and weaknesses, and most of all, relies upon deception
The Sino-Soviet Split was never fully understood, and warnings from the Soviets were not fully heeded
The initial 1971 opening to China by Nixon was largely a Chinese initiative, not an American one as commonly believed
The tone of Pillsbury’s book is not so much that we have been caught unawares, but rather that the signs are there, but many have chosen to ignore them through sheer idealism and wishful thinking. The nature of China’s intent is quite clear, an analogy is a Chinese artist and special effects maestro blowing up a Christmas Tree on the National Mall, China has signalled it’s contempt to the international order and it’s willingness to overturn it, only it is playing the long game because time is on it’s side.
Pillsbury has highlighted how the Chinese are extremely patient, and very well disciplined, and have rigorously followed stratagems from both the Warring States period and are applying it to the present day. The key concepts are Shi, essentially the order of things, the momentum in the world, Wuwei, the exploitation of energy and getting others to do one’s work for you (eg the US depleting the USSR in the Cold War), and Shashoubian, The Assassin’s Mace, essentially aysmetric warfare or weapons that strike at an Achilles Heel.
Pillsbury contends that a China centric world order is not coming around any time soon, essentially not until 2049, and if the GDP of China’s is triple that of the US, then China wins by default, however Pillsbury believes that the future need not be so bleak.
Pillsbury has illustrated a long running narrative of national grievances toward China, wherein China is the victim and it’s rightful place in the world has been denied. Additionally, a completely fictional narrative wherein every President since John Tyler (a forgotten President in the West, but the first to sign a Treaty with China) has sought to contain and undermine China.
As someone who has lived in China for 6 years, and have conversed and interacted with Chinese throughout the country, it can clearly be felt that such narratives and demonizations of the United States are very widespread, and widely believed.
As China has had very little tolerance for any kind of vocal dissent from the party line, this hostility toward free expression is being internationalized, with websites critical of China being attacked, and denying visas to journalists and other critics of China, a sanction the author himself was subject to, but was rescinded in the hopes of changing his views.
Pillsbury contends that we should be less afraid to be critical of China, as accomodation of China’s thin-skinned sensibilities decreases any chance of behavioral change and paves the way for a future wherein we all, or at least those of us who care about free expression, lose.
Pillsbury’s book is eye opening, and as a China resident, I am unable to refute most of what he says about Chinese narratives, propaganda, or strategic thinking. For many, this book is a wake up call, for others such as myself, it confirmed and exacerbated previously held views.
In short, a truly compelling account.
China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear
The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese strategic thinking. China’s strategy is extremely patient, very far sighted, and relies on exploiting externalities and weaknesses, and most of all, relies upon deception
The Sino-Soviet Split was never fully understood, and warnings from the Soviets were not fully heeded
The initial 1971 opening to China by Nixon was largely a Chinese initiative, not an American one as commonly believed
The tone of Pillsbury’s book is not so much that we have been caught unawares, but rather that the signs are there, but many have chosen to ignore them through sheer idealism and wishful thinking. The nature of China’s intent is quite clear, an analogy is a Chinese artist and special effects maestro blowing up a Christmas Tree on the National Mall, China has signalled it’s contempt to the international order and it’s willingness to overturn it, only it is playing the long game because time is on it’s side.
Pillsbury has highlighted how the Chinese are extremely patient, and very well disciplined, and have rigorously followed stratagems from both the Warring States period and are applying it to the present day. The key concepts are Shi, essentially the order of things, the momentum in the world, Wuwei, the exploitation of energy and getting others to do one’s work for you (eg the US depleting the USSR in the Cold War), and Shashoubian, The Assassin’s Mace, essentially aysmetric warfare or weapons that strike at an Achilles Heel.
Pillsbury contends that a China centric world order is not coming around any time soon, essentially not until 2049, and if the GDP of China’s is triple that of the US, then China wins by default, however Pillsbury believes that the future need not be so bleak.
Pillsbury has illustrated a long running narrative of national grievances toward China, wherein China is the victim and it’s rightful place in the world has been denied. Additionally, a completely fictional narrative wherein every President since John Tyler (a forgotten President in the West, but the first to sign a Treaty with China) has sought to contain and undermine China.
As someone who has lived in China for 6 years, and have conversed and interacted with Chinese throughout the country, it can clearly be felt that such narratives and demonizations of the United States are very widespread, and widely believed.
As China has had very little tolerance for any kind of vocal dissent from the party line, this hostility toward free expression is being internationalized, with websites critical of China being attacked, and denying visas to journalists and other critics of China, a sanction the author himself was subject to, but was rescinded in the hopes of changing his views.
Pillsbury contends that we should be less afraid to be critical of China, as accomodation of China’s thin-skinned sensibilities decreases any chance of behavioral change and paves the way for a future wherein we all, or at least those of us who care about free expression, lose.
Pillsbury’s book is eye opening, and as a China resident, I am unable to refute most of what he says about Chinese narratives, propaganda, or strategic thinking. For many, this book is a wake up call, for others such as myself, it confirmed and exacerbated previously held views.
In short, a truly compelling account.
July 15, 2016
اسم كتاب:- ماراثون مائة عام-استراتيجية الصيت سريه لاستبدال امريكا كقوه عظمي
كاتب :- مايكل بلسبيري
تاريخ اصدار:- فبراير 2015
قيمة الكتاب:-$ 30
صفحات كتاب:- 336
يتناول هذا كتاب علاقات الصينيه الامريكييه و كيف ان الصين لديها استراتيجيه سريه لاستبدال امريكا كقوه عظمي
وكيف انو حلم الصيني هو استبدال امريكا كاقوي طوله في العالم كما استبدلت امريكا الامبراطوريه البريطانيه بدون ان تطلق عليها اي رصاصه
هذا الكتاب جزء مذكرات حزء حوارات مع منشقين من حزب شيوعي الصيني و جزؤ تحليل تاريخ علاقات الصينيه الامريكيه
ثمه مقولتان قالها رئيس وزراء صيني الاسبق حينما انفتحت الصين للعالم
:-(لا يهم لو كان لون قط ابيض او اسود ما داما القط يمسك الفار)
:- (احتفظ بهدوءك وابنعد عن الانظار،لا تاخذ ابدا بزمام مبادره او تكون في مقدمه لكن في نهايه اهدف الي القيام بشيئ كبير)
هذان مقولتان كانت اساس سياسه الصينيه خارجه
وبها استطاعت الصين ان تنهض بدون استفزاز القوى العالميه
ثمه تسع استرايجيات تتبعها الصين علي حسب المؤلف لكي تكون قوه العظمئ في العالم
1- اجعل اعداءك يحبون و يرضون عن انفسهم اكثر حتى ما ينتبهوا اليك
2-اخدع المستشارين و المخابرات خصمك
3-التحلي بالصبر لعقود من زمن او لفتره اطول لتحقيق النصر
4-اسرق الافكار والتكنولجيا خصمك لتحقيق اغراض استراتيجيه
هذا كتاب كان شيق و ممتع وانصح كل من يهتم بالعلاقات الدوليه ان يقراه
كاتب :- مايكل بلسبيري
تاريخ اصدار:- فبراير 2015
قيمة الكتاب:-$ 30
صفحات كتاب:- 336
يتناول هذا كتاب علاقات الصينيه الامريكييه و كيف ان الصين لديها استراتيجيه سريه لاستبدال امريكا كقوه عظمي
وكيف انو حلم الصيني هو استبدال امريكا كاقوي طوله في العالم كما استبدلت امريكا الامبراطوريه البريطانيه بدون ان تطلق عليها اي رصاصه
هذا الكتاب جزء مذكرات حزء حوارات مع منشقين من حزب شيوعي الصيني و جزؤ تحليل تاريخ علاقات الصينيه الامريكيه
ثمه مقولتان قالها رئيس وزراء صيني الاسبق حينما انفتحت الصين للعالم
:-(لا يهم لو كان لون قط ابيض او اسود ما داما القط يمسك الفار)
:- (احتفظ بهدوءك وابنعد عن الانظار،لا تاخذ ابدا بزمام مبادره او تكون في مقدمه لكن في نهايه اهدف الي القيام بشيئ كبير)
هذان مقولتان كانت اساس سياسه الصينيه خارجه
وبها استطاعت الصين ان تنهض بدون استفزاز القوى العالميه
ثمه تسع استرايجيات تتبعها الصين علي حسب المؤلف لكي تكون قوه العظمئ في العالم
1- اجعل اعداءك يحبون و يرضون عن انفسهم اكثر حتى ما ينتبهوا اليك
2-اخدع المستشارين و المخابرات خصمك
3-التحلي بالصبر لعقود من زمن او لفتره اطول لتحقيق النصر
4-اسرق الافكار والتكنولجيا خصمك لتحقيق اغراض استراتيجيه
هذا كتاب كان شيق و ممتع وانصح كل من يهتم بالعلاقات الدوليه ان يقراه
August 25, 2019
A book from an expert on China who basically says he (and other China experts) fell for strategic deception by China and thus dramatically underestimated them as a rival and strategic threat. Essentially the argument is that China views the US as "the declining hegemon" and that for China to be successful it must take the place of the US ("no two suns in the sky"), and that the correct strategy is not to focus on military confrontation but rather to build economic and political power to the point that military superiority becomes trivial.
Extensive references to Chinese history and literature, both classical (particularly warring states period) and 1949-today restricted publication Chinese sources.
I'm unclear how valid this really is (maybe he's just trying to be relevant in the modern policy world by taking a newly more popular view...), and also unclear if nation states will continue to be the dominant species over the long time scales, but a 1949 to 2049 century of Chinese development certainly does seem like something worth evaluating. The book inspires me to want to learn more about China, at the very least.
Extensive references to Chinese history and literature, both classical (particularly warring states period) and 1949-today restricted publication Chinese sources.
I'm unclear how valid this really is (maybe he's just trying to be relevant in the modern policy world by taking a newly more popular view...), and also unclear if nation states will continue to be the dominant species over the long time scales, but a 1949 to 2049 century of Chinese development certainly does seem like something worth evaluating. The book inspires me to want to learn more about China, at the very least.
October 29, 2019
If you are a new observer to the rise of China, or have followed the political, military and economic event for decades this is a worthwhile read.
In the first case: It serves as a primer to bring you up to speed (at least to 2015) with a perspective to assess the current government focus on Sino-American issues.
In the second: It is a well documented walk down memory lane from an author who has spent his professional career immersed in the issues. Although, I can think of dangerous blunders made by past presidential administrations that are not mentioned, it is a very readable and comprehensive work.
In the first case: It serves as a primer to bring you up to speed (at least to 2015) with a perspective to assess the current government focus on Sino-American issues.
In the second: It is a well documented walk down memory lane from an author who has spent his professional career immersed in the issues. Although, I can think of dangerous blunders made by past presidential administrations that are not mentioned, it is a very readable and comprehensive work.
November 6, 2017
While setting timelines and predictions is always a difficult business, since China has already done us the favor of setting its two centenary goals, Pillsbury's book -- despite the rhetorical blunder -- offers an American perspective on Chinese efforts to reach both goals. It also offers an inside look at how one of Trump's "people" thinks about China policy. Hawkish and full of China threat theory in its finest form, but worth pressing on, if one can get beyond the memoir style rife with self-importance.
August 26, 2021
This was a strong political science book. I found it particularly eye opening and interesting.
Would recommend for people interested in global politics.
4.2/5
Would recommend for people interested in global politics.
4.2/5
September 11, 2021
The Hundred-Year Marathon - China’s secret strategy to replace America as the Global Superpower by Michael Pillsbury - An alarming tale of China’s ambition of hegemony & lessons for the unsuspecting nations
This is a compelling account of history. A deeply researched book (65 pages of notes and references) on US-China relations where the author, Michael Pillsbury, draws on his decades of experience in intelligence and contact with China’s military and intelligence agencies to sound alarm bells about China’s deceptive strategy to become the global superpower and what it means for the World.
The author’s main thesis is this: China has been embarking on a 100-year strategy to be the Global superpower by relying on stratagems from ancient Chinese history of warring states period that place deception at the center of strategy. China has been applying these stratagems to make the US unwittingly help it become an economic power and later become a military power.
The amount of research that went into this work is staggering and the author does a marvelous job of keeping the narration coherent and not losing his readers while explaining such a complex geopolitical game. This is a must-read book! The reading experience is enriching as the author traces the true history of Sino-American relationships since the Cold-war era to the Obama administration. You get to see the intricacies in intelligence gathering and the game of espionage and find several startling revelations such as US-China cooperation to undermine the soviet union operations in Afghanistan and South-East Asia. It was surprising to find that where the Soviets were successful in reading China’s true intentions (which eventually led to a fallout between China and the Soviet Union), the American’s failed to read China correctly even after being presented with several red flags. The author attributes it partly to error in judgement/ rationalization of various successive US administrations with false hopes of democracy and free markets in China and mostly to China’s successful implementation of the lessons from the Warring State period.
For example one of the lessons from the warring state period is “Never ask the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons” i.e. don’t let the enemy know you are the rival, bide your time, build your capabilities, lie low and smile until you are ready. After failing to apply this lesson with the Soviet Union, China was careful with the US and presented themselves as fragile and in need of US assistance. As a result, China could convince the US to provide scientific, technological, economic, political, trade and military support - all of which was instrumental in building China into what it is now. China does so by convincing that it was on path to free markets when in reality they had no such intentions. After becoming an economic power (3 times US GDP) Pillsbury implies that China will begin to assert itself militarily and gives a picture of what a China-centric world would be like in 2049 where China would try to mould the world in its image by supporting autocratic rulers with no attention to human rights and environmental issues.
The reader gets to learn about the implications of events of Tiananmen Square on China’s cultural politics and attitude towards the democratic United States. It was interesting to learn how China was able to influence the political discourse in the US in its favor by creating a pro-China coalition in US administration taking advantage of divisions in US politics and by dangling lucrative commercial deals before influential American businessmen so that they can lobby on China’s behalf. This is another stratagem from the warring state period which seems to be playing out in India as well currently - there have been reports of several media houses (print and media), academia, policy centres lobbying for pro-China policies.
Any nation’s rise would be welcome, but it is the deception with which China aims to reach the top position and the fear of what China would do when it becomes a superpower is what the author finds issue with. The author is honest in admitting that he failed to recognize China’s intentions and was pro-China in his analysis for most part of his career and only was able to connect the dots in the past decade or so. As China seeks to flex its muscles in the south-China sea and expands overseas to secure natural resources through its state owned companies, Pillsbury has advice for the US (and other nations) to recognize that there is a marathon and engage China accordingly. Overall, a well written book on an interesting geopolitical game of our time that everyone should read, especially those in India as the chess game between India and China is already underway.
This is a compelling account of history. A deeply researched book (65 pages of notes and references) on US-China relations where the author, Michael Pillsbury, draws on his decades of experience in intelligence and contact with China’s military and intelligence agencies to sound alarm bells about China’s deceptive strategy to become the global superpower and what it means for the World.
The author’s main thesis is this: China has been embarking on a 100-year strategy to be the Global superpower by relying on stratagems from ancient Chinese history of warring states period that place deception at the center of strategy. China has been applying these stratagems to make the US unwittingly help it become an economic power and later become a military power.
The amount of research that went into this work is staggering and the author does a marvelous job of keeping the narration coherent and not losing his readers while explaining such a complex geopolitical game. This is a must-read book! The reading experience is enriching as the author traces the true history of Sino-American relationships since the Cold-war era to the Obama administration. You get to see the intricacies in intelligence gathering and the game of espionage and find several startling revelations such as US-China cooperation to undermine the soviet union operations in Afghanistan and South-East Asia. It was surprising to find that where the Soviets were successful in reading China’s true intentions (which eventually led to a fallout between China and the Soviet Union), the American’s failed to read China correctly even after being presented with several red flags. The author attributes it partly to error in judgement/ rationalization of various successive US administrations with false hopes of democracy and free markets in China and mostly to China’s successful implementation of the lessons from the Warring State period.
For example one of the lessons from the warring state period is “Never ask the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons” i.e. don’t let the enemy know you are the rival, bide your time, build your capabilities, lie low and smile until you are ready. After failing to apply this lesson with the Soviet Union, China was careful with the US and presented themselves as fragile and in need of US assistance. As a result, China could convince the US to provide scientific, technological, economic, political, trade and military support - all of which was instrumental in building China into what it is now. China does so by convincing that it was on path to free markets when in reality they had no such intentions. After becoming an economic power (3 times US GDP) Pillsbury implies that China will begin to assert itself militarily and gives a picture of what a China-centric world would be like in 2049 where China would try to mould the world in its image by supporting autocratic rulers with no attention to human rights and environmental issues.
The reader gets to learn about the implications of events of Tiananmen Square on China’s cultural politics and attitude towards the democratic United States. It was interesting to learn how China was able to influence the political discourse in the US in its favor by creating a pro-China coalition in US administration taking advantage of divisions in US politics and by dangling lucrative commercial deals before influential American businessmen so that they can lobby on China’s behalf. This is another stratagem from the warring state period which seems to be playing out in India as well currently - there have been reports of several media houses (print and media), academia, policy centres lobbying for pro-China policies.
Any nation’s rise would be welcome, but it is the deception with which China aims to reach the top position and the fear of what China would do when it becomes a superpower is what the author finds issue with. The author is honest in admitting that he failed to recognize China’s intentions and was pro-China in his analysis for most part of his career and only was able to connect the dots in the past decade or so. As China seeks to flex its muscles in the south-China sea and expands overseas to secure natural resources through its state owned companies, Pillsbury has advice for the US (and other nations) to recognize that there is a marathon and engage China accordingly. Overall, a well written book on an interesting geopolitical game of our time that everyone should read, especially those in India as the chess game between India and China is already underway.
January 10, 2023
This book was my first exposure to Chinese strategy and the subtle culture war currently at play. From Confucius Institutes, to decades of U.S. foreign policy professionals viewing China as a poor backwards nation and thus letting them get away with unbridled growth and expansion, Pillsbury gives a professional and evidence backed look at the most shocking and detrimental mistakes in the U.S. approach to China policy. Every American should read this book.
March 16, 2021
“On the outside be benevolent, on the inside be ruthless.” Chinese proverb
After living through the events of the past year (2020), the information outlined in this book should not come as a surprise to anyone. On the contrary, it clearly shows why President Trump’s strong stance on relations with China over the last four years was such an important and much needed change from previous administrations.
After living through the events of the past year (2020), the information outlined in this book should not come as a surprise to anyone. On the contrary, it clearly shows why President Trump’s strong stance on relations with China over the last four years was such an important and much needed change from previous administrations.
April 23, 2023
April 21st 2023 audio review
Ok, so I did indeed listen to this again, almost immediately following my first listen. This is a very in depth detailing of China and how it sees the US. I am on the waitlist for the ebook at my library, and I plan to slowly go through certain passages because there is a lot of information to unpack. If the information contained here can be believed, the US has been very stupid and naive about China. I did not know a lot of what was told here. I recommend everyone in the US read this. It's eye opening.
I don't know how to rate this this I didn't love it. Not because it's poorly written but because the facts (if they are true) are frightening. How can I give a 5 star rating to something that tells a very scary story about the future, not just of the US and China, but of this planet. Things are not going to turn out well if something very big and dramatic doesn't change the course of events. So I guess for the sake of education value and not for the enjoyment factor I give this 5 stars.
April 12th 2023 audio review
Plan to listen to this again. Review to follow.
Ok, so I did indeed listen to this again, almost immediately following my first listen. This is a very in depth detailing of China and how it sees the US. I am on the waitlist for the ebook at my library, and I plan to slowly go through certain passages because there is a lot of information to unpack. If the information contained here can be believed, the US has been very stupid and naive about China. I did not know a lot of what was told here. I recommend everyone in the US read this. It's eye opening.
I don't know how to rate this this I didn't love it. Not because it's poorly written but because the facts (if they are true) are frightening. How can I give a 5 star rating to something that tells a very scary story about the future, not just of the US and China, but of this planet. Things are not going to turn out well if something very big and dramatic doesn't change the course of events. So I guess for the sake of education value and not for the enjoyment factor I give this 5 stars.
April 12th 2023 audio review
Plan to listen to this again. Review to follow.
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