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The World in 2050: How to Think About the Future
Bloomsbury presents The World in 2050 by Hamish McRae, read by Gordon Griffin.
A bold and illuminating vision of the future, from one of Europe’s foremost speakers on global trends in economics, business and society.
What will the world look like in 2050? How will complex forces of change—demography, the environment, finance, technology and ideas about governance—affect our global society? And how, with so many unknowns, should we think about the future?
One of Europe’s foremost voices on global trends in economics, business and society, Hamish McRae takes us on an exhilarating journey through the next 30 years. Drawing on decades of research, and combining economic judgement with historical perspective, Hamish weighs up the opportunities and dangers we face, analysing the economic tectonic plates of the past and present in order to help us chart a map of the future.
A bold and vital vision of our planet, The World in 2050 is an essential guide for anyone worried about what the future holds. For if we understand how our world is changing, we will be in a better position to secure our future in the decades to come.
A bold and illuminating vision of the future, from one of Europe’s foremost speakers on global trends in economics, business and society.
What will the world look like in 2050? How will complex forces of change—demography, the environment, finance, technology and ideas about governance—affect our global society? And how, with so many unknowns, should we think about the future?
One of Europe’s foremost voices on global trends in economics, business and society, Hamish McRae takes us on an exhilarating journey through the next 30 years. Drawing on decades of research, and combining economic judgement with historical perspective, Hamish weighs up the opportunities and dangers we face, analysing the economic tectonic plates of the past and present in order to help us chart a map of the future.
A bold and vital vision of our planet, The World in 2050 is an essential guide for anyone worried about what the future holds. For if we understand how our world is changing, we will be in a better position to secure our future in the decades to come.
- GenresNonfictionEconomics
Audiobook
Published May 1, 2022
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 34 reviews
June 28, 2022
At one point the author says that maybe we will develop means to talk to dead people, or maybe not, but what if we did? This is the quality of "predictions" in this book. This is a modern day Nostradamus where after 20 (or 200) years you can read any prediction you want from the book. Almost every one is hedged both ways so no matter what happens the author can claim he has predicted it.
July 21, 2022
This is a very strange book. The subtitle is ‘How to think about the future’ - except, he repeatedly says that he is writing a book that he wants to be positive. He has read lots of Hans Rosling and so doesn’t want to accentuate the negative. All of which is just great - except, I didn’t really buy the book to see what you would end up with if you mated Polly-Anna with Dr Pangloss. By the way - the answer is Hamish McRae, it seems. This book trades on the success of a book he wrote thirty years ago, predicting what the world would be like in 2020. It seems he did quite well in his predictions in that book. I haven’t read that book. I’m not sure what predictions he made or how accurate they were. This book worries me mostly because it doesn’t really feel like there are that many predictions. In fact, the book is mostly centred around a series of feel-good statements about how various countries will come to terms with their actual position in the world and this will make the world a safer, happier, more prosperous and generally better place all around.
Europe, for example, is in tragic decline - the EU is about to fall apart, and if not fall apart, then to effectively do that. However, this is actually a positive, because there was never any hope of a true political unity of Europe and so the economic union is more of a hinderance than a benefit. But the only point of the EU was to stop war in Europe, and since that is unlikely - despite Ukraine, means they might as well split up as a common market. The one prediction he made in his last book I do know was that the UK would leave the EU. Quite a prediction from 30 years ago - especially since it wasn’t clear to me the UK would leave the EU until it voted to leave a couple of years ago. He sees this is an unalloyed good too. In fact, he sees this as a fabulous opportunity for the Anglosphere to take its proper place at the forefront of human progress. Although, now it will be lead by the US, rather than UK, of course - but English provides such a unifying force to the world, and the English speaking countries have such clear advantages, it isn’t even clear to him why Ireland might not want to switch sides from a dying Europe to what is about to become a new commonwealth of English speaking nations.
The world is now mostly middle class, it seems. This is a return to Rosling’s ‘one hump’ idea. And middle class people across the world will soon not only be the overwhelming majority of the population (up from 50% of everyone now, to 75% by 2050) but this significant change will do much to bring down barriers between peoples, countries, and continents. As the middle class rise, gross inequities will drop, because the middle class will increase not merely in size, but in political power too.
As I was reading this, I kept thinking of other books I’ve read over the last year or so. None of which would provide anything like the positive spin this book has done. His vision splendid of the US as a bulwark of peace and prosperity is hard to sustain while reading ‘The Open Veins of Latin America’. The notion that the poor in the developed world are the main beneficiaries of the growth in productivity and wealth across the planet wasn’t particularly sustained while I was reading ‘The Divide’. The idea that the movement of people into cities is a boon for those moving and the planet, since living in comfortable, middle class housing is the definition of civilisation - ignores much of what is said in ‘Planet of Slums’ which makes it clear most people who live in cities live in slums.
I think one of the problems here is categorical. He uses middle class as if this is a term that is transparent and obvious to everyone. When he says half the world are now middle class he implies this means half the world can now afford a car, own their own house, travel by air to foreign nations for holidays, send their children to university or generally expend money on other things beyond the scope of necessity. And there are times when he makes sure we make this category error too. I had to check his end notes to see where he got his figures for the worldwide proportion of middle class people. This isn’t quite a memory from Robert Lowell, where even the man scavenging filth in the back alley trash cans, has two children, a beach wagon, a helpmate,
and is a young Republican. Rather, this is quite a new vision of a middle class world the general reader might not recognise. The economists who have now populated our world with middle class people define this, not by how much they resemble those of us in the developed world - despite the author implying this throughout, but rather by their ability to spend more on themselves and their families than absolute necessity would require. At this, the economists estimate that such a ‘middle class’ person would spend between $11 and $110 per day upon themselves, and the same amount on each member of their family.
Don’t get me wrong - this is a hell of a lot better off than being dirt poor - but it isn’t what I think most people in the developed world would consider middle class. But much of the positive assessment of what the world will be like in 30 years time is based on confounding one use of the idea of the middle class with the other.
He sees most of the problems of inequity in the world being resolved over this time frame for a similar reason, that the middle class across the world are increasingly having converging lifestyles. The problem with globalisation to date can be summed up as being about China playing catchup with the developed world. This meant China had a near endless pool of cheap labour and Western investment shifted production from the west to the east to gain advantage from this difference. This increased the living standards in the east, crashed those for many in the west, but that overall it was a boon for humanity. Now that lifestyles are balancing between east and west, there will be a more general rising of wellbeing and many of the disadvantages of globalisation will disappear - particularly in the developed world, now China is catching up. There is no point exporting jobs to China if US workers get paid the same as Chinese ones. And since China is about to have an economy the same size as the US economy, and then one that will be bigger - well, it is clearly about to become just as rich as the US too.
Like I said, categories are equated and then confounded and conclusions drawn from identity and difference is obliterated. The excessive positivity is then linked with a bland smearing of all difference, which is then taken to be a rush towards the pinnacle of western civilisation - as exemplified by the English speaking world.
Look, maybe the trouble that the UK is currently having with Brexit is going to be incredibly short lived. I find that a bit unlikely, but who knows? Still, if I was placing bets on who was going to do better over the medium term - Britain or Germany - I reckon there would be a reasonable case to be made for the winner being Germany. The people who have said Brexit will prove a boon for Britain, I would have thought, have been mostly discredited. Again, that might just be the newspapers that I read. Still, I hardly think anyone looking at the UK at the moment would confuse it with a politically stable or economically progressive place. The same could be said for the US. It isn’t clear to me that it is, in fact, governable. This is mostly due to the effects discussed in another book I read recently - ‘Dark Money’. The rich have done what they can to ensure that democracy in the US becomes virtually impossible. It isn’t clear to me that is going to ‘settle’ any time soon. In fact, there is so much money to be made in keeping the US in a state of political turmoil that the next 30 years seems hardly long enough for any change towards increased democratic accountability. This is a terrifying prospect, one I would rather be wrong about - but the forces he identifies in bringing about a more relaxed and comfortable US population - that the US will see the white majority become a minority, for example - hardly seem the most obvious basis for a general outbreak of democracy. Quite the opposite. To hold onto power, the growth of white supremacy seems almost inevitable to me.
The world of work is discussed, but only in about one line that I can remember was the potential problems of AI or massive robotisation mentioned - and then that was shrugged off, virtually without comment, I guess because he is keen to be ‘positive’. Perhaps those who say robots will bring about the end of work are massively overstating their case. The problem is that we have never seen anything quite like this before. We like to talk of Luddites - but the thing to remember about Luddites is that their loss of the battle against the machine saw wages and conditions of employment across England collapse and not recover for nearly 100 years. Yes, people did find new jobs, but those jobs were grossly ‘lesser’ than the ones that were lost. We are potentially facing a situation a thousand times more explosive than faced by the Luddites. Maybe it will just work out fine - but to not even mention that there is a potential problem that could turn nasty seems wilful blindness.
He makes much of the idea that countries with ageing and declining populations (China is an example, Europe another) will find themselves going backwards economically but will, by the mere fact of having so many old people, become more serene and accepting of themselves. He repeatedly says he expects China to grow more comfortable with its position in the world as it gets older and wiser. But I do wonder why a world that is likely to be dominated by machines doing so many manual tasks for us will also be a world in which you need a young and energetic population to grow.
Little is made of the fact that most of the poor people who have been lifted out of poverty have been from China and South East Asia. He does discuss India, but barely mentions any of the political and sectarian problems India faces. He says twice that Sri Lanka is the great winner of South Asia - a prediction that hasn’t quite made it beyond the year, never mind 30 years. Africa is a problem, but there is even hope there too, he assures us - although, with less conviction that for elsewhere.
What is never done is to consider how the past might have impacted nations’ present and how this present might impact the future. Nations should just get over their colonial past - even if they continue to be bled white by their ex-colonial powers. There is no analysis of, say, the likely growth in the need for water and how this will play out in an increasingly hot world. There is no real discussion about how climate refugees will be treated - he lives in England - look at how they are being treated now for a bit of a hint towards the future.
It’s all well and good to be positive - but this book asks one thing more - that you leave your brain at the door.
Europe, for example, is in tragic decline - the EU is about to fall apart, and if not fall apart, then to effectively do that. However, this is actually a positive, because there was never any hope of a true political unity of Europe and so the economic union is more of a hinderance than a benefit. But the only point of the EU was to stop war in Europe, and since that is unlikely - despite Ukraine, means they might as well split up as a common market. The one prediction he made in his last book I do know was that the UK would leave the EU. Quite a prediction from 30 years ago - especially since it wasn’t clear to me the UK would leave the EU until it voted to leave a couple of years ago. He sees this is an unalloyed good too. In fact, he sees this as a fabulous opportunity for the Anglosphere to take its proper place at the forefront of human progress. Although, now it will be lead by the US, rather than UK, of course - but English provides such a unifying force to the world, and the English speaking countries have such clear advantages, it isn’t even clear to him why Ireland might not want to switch sides from a dying Europe to what is about to become a new commonwealth of English speaking nations.
The world is now mostly middle class, it seems. This is a return to Rosling’s ‘one hump’ idea. And middle class people across the world will soon not only be the overwhelming majority of the population (up from 50% of everyone now, to 75% by 2050) but this significant change will do much to bring down barriers between peoples, countries, and continents. As the middle class rise, gross inequities will drop, because the middle class will increase not merely in size, but in political power too.
As I was reading this, I kept thinking of other books I’ve read over the last year or so. None of which would provide anything like the positive spin this book has done. His vision splendid of the US as a bulwark of peace and prosperity is hard to sustain while reading ‘The Open Veins of Latin America’. The notion that the poor in the developed world are the main beneficiaries of the growth in productivity and wealth across the planet wasn’t particularly sustained while I was reading ‘The Divide’. The idea that the movement of people into cities is a boon for those moving and the planet, since living in comfortable, middle class housing is the definition of civilisation - ignores much of what is said in ‘Planet of Slums’ which makes it clear most people who live in cities live in slums.
I think one of the problems here is categorical. He uses middle class as if this is a term that is transparent and obvious to everyone. When he says half the world are now middle class he implies this means half the world can now afford a car, own their own house, travel by air to foreign nations for holidays, send their children to university or generally expend money on other things beyond the scope of necessity. And there are times when he makes sure we make this category error too. I had to check his end notes to see where he got his figures for the worldwide proportion of middle class people. This isn’t quite a memory from Robert Lowell, where even the man scavenging filth in the back alley trash cans, has two children, a beach wagon, a helpmate,
and is a young Republican. Rather, this is quite a new vision of a middle class world the general reader might not recognise. The economists who have now populated our world with middle class people define this, not by how much they resemble those of us in the developed world - despite the author implying this throughout, but rather by their ability to spend more on themselves and their families than absolute necessity would require. At this, the economists estimate that such a ‘middle class’ person would spend between $11 and $110 per day upon themselves, and the same amount on each member of their family.
Don’t get me wrong - this is a hell of a lot better off than being dirt poor - but it isn’t what I think most people in the developed world would consider middle class. But much of the positive assessment of what the world will be like in 30 years time is based on confounding one use of the idea of the middle class with the other.
He sees most of the problems of inequity in the world being resolved over this time frame for a similar reason, that the middle class across the world are increasingly having converging lifestyles. The problem with globalisation to date can be summed up as being about China playing catchup with the developed world. This meant China had a near endless pool of cheap labour and Western investment shifted production from the west to the east to gain advantage from this difference. This increased the living standards in the east, crashed those for many in the west, but that overall it was a boon for humanity. Now that lifestyles are balancing between east and west, there will be a more general rising of wellbeing and many of the disadvantages of globalisation will disappear - particularly in the developed world, now China is catching up. There is no point exporting jobs to China if US workers get paid the same as Chinese ones. And since China is about to have an economy the same size as the US economy, and then one that will be bigger - well, it is clearly about to become just as rich as the US too.
Like I said, categories are equated and then confounded and conclusions drawn from identity and difference is obliterated. The excessive positivity is then linked with a bland smearing of all difference, which is then taken to be a rush towards the pinnacle of western civilisation - as exemplified by the English speaking world.
Look, maybe the trouble that the UK is currently having with Brexit is going to be incredibly short lived. I find that a bit unlikely, but who knows? Still, if I was placing bets on who was going to do better over the medium term - Britain or Germany - I reckon there would be a reasonable case to be made for the winner being Germany. The people who have said Brexit will prove a boon for Britain, I would have thought, have been mostly discredited. Again, that might just be the newspapers that I read. Still, I hardly think anyone looking at the UK at the moment would confuse it with a politically stable or economically progressive place. The same could be said for the US. It isn’t clear to me that it is, in fact, governable. This is mostly due to the effects discussed in another book I read recently - ‘Dark Money’. The rich have done what they can to ensure that democracy in the US becomes virtually impossible. It isn’t clear to me that is going to ‘settle’ any time soon. In fact, there is so much money to be made in keeping the US in a state of political turmoil that the next 30 years seems hardly long enough for any change towards increased democratic accountability. This is a terrifying prospect, one I would rather be wrong about - but the forces he identifies in bringing about a more relaxed and comfortable US population - that the US will see the white majority become a minority, for example - hardly seem the most obvious basis for a general outbreak of democracy. Quite the opposite. To hold onto power, the growth of white supremacy seems almost inevitable to me.
The world of work is discussed, but only in about one line that I can remember was the potential problems of AI or massive robotisation mentioned - and then that was shrugged off, virtually without comment, I guess because he is keen to be ‘positive’. Perhaps those who say robots will bring about the end of work are massively overstating their case. The problem is that we have never seen anything quite like this before. We like to talk of Luddites - but the thing to remember about Luddites is that their loss of the battle against the machine saw wages and conditions of employment across England collapse and not recover for nearly 100 years. Yes, people did find new jobs, but those jobs were grossly ‘lesser’ than the ones that were lost. We are potentially facing a situation a thousand times more explosive than faced by the Luddites. Maybe it will just work out fine - but to not even mention that there is a potential problem that could turn nasty seems wilful blindness.
He makes much of the idea that countries with ageing and declining populations (China is an example, Europe another) will find themselves going backwards economically but will, by the mere fact of having so many old people, become more serene and accepting of themselves. He repeatedly says he expects China to grow more comfortable with its position in the world as it gets older and wiser. But I do wonder why a world that is likely to be dominated by machines doing so many manual tasks for us will also be a world in which you need a young and energetic population to grow.
Little is made of the fact that most of the poor people who have been lifted out of poverty have been from China and South East Asia. He does discuss India, but barely mentions any of the political and sectarian problems India faces. He says twice that Sri Lanka is the great winner of South Asia - a prediction that hasn’t quite made it beyond the year, never mind 30 years. Africa is a problem, but there is even hope there too, he assures us - although, with less conviction that for elsewhere.
What is never done is to consider how the past might have impacted nations’ present and how this present might impact the future. Nations should just get over their colonial past - even if they continue to be bled white by their ex-colonial powers. There is no analysis of, say, the likely growth in the need for water and how this will play out in an increasingly hot world. There is no real discussion about how climate refugees will be treated - he lives in England - look at how they are being treated now for a bit of a hint towards the future.
It’s all well and good to be positive - but this book asks one thing more - that you leave your brain at the door.
June 21, 2022
Insightful speculations, projections based on current data/past data from an economist who predicted quite well what the world would look like in 2020.
Essentially, it is the rise of the Asian continent and their influence shaping the world market, political arena, specifically China and India.
McRae gives projections for every continent, stating possible/plausible outcomes if things go right. He also points out what could happen if the wrong dominoes fall for each continent.
In 2050, I'll come back to this review and state just how well McRae did.
Bless,
Essentially, it is the rise of the Asian continent and their influence shaping the world market, political arena, specifically China and India.
McRae gives projections for every continent, stating possible/plausible outcomes if things go right. He also points out what could happen if the wrong dominoes fall for each continent.
In 2050, I'll come back to this review and state just how well McRae did.
Bless,
August 26, 2023
This is an exceptional book -- insightful and interesting. It follows the author's earlier work in the 1990s, forecasting the state of the world in 2020. He was much more right than wrong (I loved that book, too!).
McRae examines large-scale trends that will unfold over the coming decades, including the aging of the populations in China, the US and Europe, population growth in Africa that will create a much younger continent, economic growth in formerly-emerging countries around the world, a shift from manufacturing exports to services exports, and technology and climate change to paint a really detailed picture of the world thirty years hence.
His book takes on risks and threats directly. Those include climate destruction and environmental catastrophes, regions in which wars might break out, and the tensions between authoritarian and democratic political movements around the world. The promise and problems of immigration are central to the economic arguments he makes.
The book is, in the end, optimistic, but not blindly so. It was nice to step out of the daily drumbeat of crisis news to take a look at longer-term trends and the outcomes they are likely to produce.
I learned a lot!
McRae examines large-scale trends that will unfold over the coming decades, including the aging of the populations in China, the US and Europe, population growth in Africa that will create a much younger continent, economic growth in formerly-emerging countries around the world, a shift from manufacturing exports to services exports, and technology and climate change to paint a really detailed picture of the world thirty years hence.
His book takes on risks and threats directly. Those include climate destruction and environmental catastrophes, regions in which wars might break out, and the tensions between authoritarian and democratic political movements around the world. The promise and problems of immigration are central to the economic arguments he makes.
The book is, in the end, optimistic, but not blindly so. It was nice to step out of the daily drumbeat of crisis news to take a look at longer-term trends and the outcomes they are likely to produce.
I learned a lot!
September 15, 2022
It’s more a 2.5 than a 3 for me .
It is a good read where in author lays the present and future with a view of the past and makes an interesting read. Points and views are divided based on continents and countries and makes a strong case for his thoughts. Like books of this nature ideas do get repeated and restated while they are also reinforced.
I think author missed opportunity to talk about global institutions and their relevance over next 30’years like the UN , IMF, WHO etc. I say this because some of them are already in decline and will be interesting to know if they rebuild their relevance or are replaced .
Would I keep this book with me to check in 10 years from now if the trajectory is as stated - No. Would I use some of the ideas to form my views and use them - Yes.
It is a good read where in author lays the present and future with a view of the past and makes an interesting read. Points and views are divided based on continents and countries and makes a strong case for his thoughts. Like books of this nature ideas do get repeated and restated while they are also reinforced.
I think author missed opportunity to talk about global institutions and their relevance over next 30’years like the UN , IMF, WHO etc. I say this because some of them are already in decline and will be interesting to know if they rebuild their relevance or are replaced .
Would I keep this book with me to check in 10 years from now if the trajectory is as stated - No. Would I use some of the ideas to form my views and use them - Yes.
December 10, 2022
This booked terrified me. The future isn’t set in stone and I don’t believe this author is the single authority on how things will turn out.
March 14, 2023
It's very US-Centric. Yes, China will become a bigger economy, but 'Murica will overtake them again. And the world in 2050 will be a middle class utopia, never mind the growing inequality in the world. Oh, and I call myself a futurist, so I can give a superficialy, unfounded prediction on current data and dreaming how I want it to. France is cool, because they have luxioury goods. Oh, and there's the rest of Europe too, for people who want to live a quiet life on the sidelines of world politics for the big boys. And in 2050 climate change will be a small challege and except for Egypt, Australia and Bangladesh it won't have a big influence on the future.
July 9, 2022
The first part of the book is fine but not original in assessing where the world is today : the leading economies and how they shift, the environmental and technological challenges, shifts in the ideas about society, etc.. The second part assesses the world today by reviewing the geographic areas and is factual to set the starting point.
The third part is more interesting analysing the major drivers that will shape the world on the way to 2050 : demographics, resources and the environment, trade and finance and last but not least how governments and governance will shift.
The fourth part of the book is by far the worst in trying to depict what the world will look like by 2050. While it is supposed to be based on facts, it is so biased in its projections which are not objectively justified such as the bright future of the UK (despite the worst inflation rate of the G7), the European Union will not last (at least in its present form). It reads more like a piece of Brexit propaganda.
The end discussing what could go wrong as well as the positive ideas driving the projections look more like wishful thinking than a thorough analysis.
The third part is more interesting analysing the major drivers that will shape the world on the way to 2050 : demographics, resources and the environment, trade and finance and last but not least how governments and governance will shift.
The fourth part of the book is by far the worst in trying to depict what the world will look like by 2050. While it is supposed to be based on facts, it is so biased in its projections which are not objectively justified such as the bright future of the UK (despite the worst inflation rate of the G7), the European Union will not last (at least in its present form). It reads more like a piece of Brexit propaganda.
The end discussing what could go wrong as well as the positive ideas driving the projections look more like wishful thinking than a thorough analysis.
July 5, 2022
The value of a book like this is not so much the specific predictions, as the effort to think about which trends will matter most in the foreseeable future. As McRae rightly argues, there are many things we can know about the future. Demography, environmental change, and even cultures are all relatively stable. At least over 30 year periods.
The picture McRae presents is an optimistic one. A world of 10 billion people. A much older world. A wealthy one (2/3rds will be middle class or rich). He predicts a revitalization of America, and the rapid rise of Africa. If we apply the framing of Roberts & Lamp's 'Six Faces of Globalization', McRae, a British economist, offers an establishment view, where hopefully countries sort out their political problems reasonably enough to embrace the mutual benefits of trade and growth. While I am not as sanguine that politics can be put aside, I still think there is much to this view, and its benefits remain extremely attractive.
There are of course, many things that could go wrong. McRae acknowledges early on that he assumes there will not be a cataclysmic war - for such an event would make all prediction's impossible, and since we have at least reasons such as nuclear deterrence and 20th century memories to dissuade such campaigns. He also acknowledges many challenges across the world. Each region gets two chapters, one on the here and now, one in 3 decades hence, and the picture for some countries remains dire. Usually attributable to poor quality of governance, over-reliance on limited economic resources, or restrictions that inhibit their people from excelling. Again, the establishment view writ-large.
'Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future' as the old saying goes. McRae offers a view of what we should expect if the world of the future largely resembles its past. In doing so, he offers a reminder that for all our current anxieties, the present world is a very good one. As Barack Obama noted in 2016 (invoking the spirit of John Rawls), if you were to be born at any time in history, not knowing your race, gender, location etc, then you would absolutely want to be born today. We worry about 'inequality' because we are in a world awash with goods and capacity. Malnutrition since 1990 has reduced from 25% to just 10% of the global population. Far too high, but we also added 2 billion people while making such dramatic reductions in that same period.
For strategists, what does a world that is older and richer want from conflict and war? How will it seek to engage, support or wall-off those parts of the world that are young and poor? If the 20th century saw the dominance of working-class ideological movements, what will the global middle class produce? What of their values will dominate or evolve?
So, to return full circle, the value of such books may not be what the author can guess about the future, but about what we may learn about the present. For all the challenges that must be addressed, the changes that need to occur, we are on a very good path in human history. Let's not mess that up.
The picture McRae presents is an optimistic one. A world of 10 billion people. A much older world. A wealthy one (2/3rds will be middle class or rich). He predicts a revitalization of America, and the rapid rise of Africa. If we apply the framing of Roberts & Lamp's 'Six Faces of Globalization', McRae, a British economist, offers an establishment view, where hopefully countries sort out their political problems reasonably enough to embrace the mutual benefits of trade and growth. While I am not as sanguine that politics can be put aside, I still think there is much to this view, and its benefits remain extremely attractive.
There are of course, many things that could go wrong. McRae acknowledges early on that he assumes there will not be a cataclysmic war - for such an event would make all prediction's impossible, and since we have at least reasons such as nuclear deterrence and 20th century memories to dissuade such campaigns. He also acknowledges many challenges across the world. Each region gets two chapters, one on the here and now, one in 3 decades hence, and the picture for some countries remains dire. Usually attributable to poor quality of governance, over-reliance on limited economic resources, or restrictions that inhibit their people from excelling. Again, the establishment view writ-large.
'Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future' as the old saying goes. McRae offers a view of what we should expect if the world of the future largely resembles its past. In doing so, he offers a reminder that for all our current anxieties, the present world is a very good one. As Barack Obama noted in 2016 (invoking the spirit of John Rawls), if you were to be born at any time in history, not knowing your race, gender, location etc, then you would absolutely want to be born today. We worry about 'inequality' because we are in a world awash with goods and capacity. Malnutrition since 1990 has reduced from 25% to just 10% of the global population. Far too high, but we also added 2 billion people while making such dramatic reductions in that same period.
For strategists, what does a world that is older and richer want from conflict and war? How will it seek to engage, support or wall-off those parts of the world that are young and poor? If the 20th century saw the dominance of working-class ideological movements, what will the global middle class produce? What of their values will dominate or evolve?
So, to return full circle, the value of such books may not be what the author can guess about the future, but about what we may learn about the present. For all the challenges that must be addressed, the changes that need to occur, we are on a very good path in human history. Let's not mess that up.
November 28, 2023
Hamish McRae's 'The World in 2050: How to Think About the Future' is an insightful exploration into the future of our world. Offering a comprehensive analysis, McRae employs a structured approach that meticulously breaks down complex topics like current state affairs and demographic shifts. This methodical dissection makes the book an invaluable resource for anyone interested in understanding the potential trajectories of our global society.
The book's strength lies in its final chapter, which thoughtfully summarizes the potential positives and negatives of the future. This balanced view provides a realistic perspective, acknowledging both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
However, 'The World in 2050' is not without its flaws. Certain sections can feel tedious and overly detailed, leading to moments where the narrative seems to drone on. These parts, while informative, may test the patience of readers looking for a more consistently engaging read.
Despite these occasional lapses in engagement, the book stands out for its thorough and nuanced approach to future-gazing. McRae doesn't just offer predictions; he provides a framework for understanding the complex interplay of factors that will shape our world in the coming decades.
The book's strength lies in its final chapter, which thoughtfully summarizes the potential positives and negatives of the future. This balanced view provides a realistic perspective, acknowledging both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
However, 'The World in 2050' is not without its flaws. Certain sections can feel tedious and overly detailed, leading to moments where the narrative seems to drone on. These parts, while informative, may test the patience of readers looking for a more consistently engaging read.
Despite these occasional lapses in engagement, the book stands out for its thorough and nuanced approach to future-gazing. McRae doesn't just offer predictions; he provides a framework for understanding the complex interplay of factors that will shape our world in the coming decades.
January 2, 2024
The World in 2050 is an interesting explanation of the state of global affairs with many pages devoted to exploring a plethora of various possibilities. This book is slightly middling precisely because of that equivocation - McRae had a few accurate predictions in his book The World in 2020 (a pandemic, Brexit, a populist leader being elected in America) but this early success seems to have dissuaded him from making more bold bets for the sake of conserving his track record.
The result is a thorough explanation of how various countries and geopolitical relationships may turn out - I enjoyed his opinions on the future of the European Union, which are interweaved throughout the book at many points - with very little in the sense of concrete predictions guided by his own intuition. Perhaps this is McRae's intention; a quote from the start of Chapter 12 that he sees this book as 'a template against which people can fit their own ideas - to agree or disagree as they see fit' is telling, and disappointing.
Ironically, I would recommend this book to anyone who wants to learn more about the current state of the world. Contextualizing what goes on around us is made easier through the nuanced perspectives McRae provides. It truly excels in that purpose.
The result is a thorough explanation of how various countries and geopolitical relationships may turn out - I enjoyed his opinions on the future of the European Union, which are interweaved throughout the book at many points - with very little in the sense of concrete predictions guided by his own intuition. Perhaps this is McRae's intention; a quote from the start of Chapter 12 that he sees this book as 'a template against which people can fit their own ideas - to agree or disagree as they see fit' is telling, and disappointing.
Ironically, I would recommend this book to anyone who wants to learn more about the current state of the world. Contextualizing what goes on around us is made easier through the nuanced perspectives McRae provides. It truly excels in that purpose.
January 31, 2023
3.5 stars
the research done has been extended only for big countries such as USA, Europe, China & India as well other Anglophiles countries. As for south east asian country, the research was written very simple and lack of facts that readers should at least be educated. It seems that author wasn't balancing the facts with all regions and instead went big countries shots.
like the part where the author divided chapters of nowadays issues and 2050 predictions. we can understand better and not that easily got headache to digest every facts dumped. i understand why author seems to highlight USA will be always outshine other country because he believed US practiced a good governance. that good governance will actually decides the future of a country. China has a big potential and it can go wasted if the good governance is not implemented.
i also love to see how the author gave the reader the comparison of two situations/paths that a country might choose. pessimistic & optimistic predictions.
overall, it's still a good reading but just lacking of research on Asian countries which pretty upsetting the SEA readers especially. Nothing too details provided for SEA countries.
the research done has been extended only for big countries such as USA, Europe, China & India as well other Anglophiles countries. As for south east asian country, the research was written very simple and lack of facts that readers should at least be educated. It seems that author wasn't balancing the facts with all regions and instead went big countries shots.
like the part where the author divided chapters of nowadays issues and 2050 predictions. we can understand better and not that easily got headache to digest every facts dumped. i understand why author seems to highlight USA will be always outshine other country because he believed US practiced a good governance. that good governance will actually decides the future of a country. China has a big potential and it can go wasted if the good governance is not implemented.
i also love to see how the author gave the reader the comparison of two situations/paths that a country might choose. pessimistic & optimistic predictions.
overall, it's still a good reading but just lacking of research on Asian countries which pretty upsetting the SEA readers especially. Nothing too details provided for SEA countries.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
October 3, 2023
Fuck you Hamish McRae and fuck every economist who has ever lived on this planet even Jeffrey Sachs (Putin sympathiser) the main point of this book is DIE EU! DIE, DIE DIE! I think at one point the EU killed Hamish McRae's mother and he wants revenge and for it to cease to exist in 2050. Economists are scum and see humanity in ones and zeroes, at some point an economist has said "yes there is a genocide but that genocide creates more jobs." Hamish McRae hails Elon Musk is a genius, obviously this is before the Twitter (now X) debacle and points out how wrong economists can be. This book was also written before the disaster that is Liz Truss (fucking moron) and her mini budget (shitstorm clusterfuck omnishambles) and so fails to take into account how shit the UK is. Hamish McRae probably thinks of Russell Brand as "talented" instead of at worst a rapist and at minimum indecent exposure. Climate change is given scant attention and a number of times he says "does not bare thinking about." well this book does not bare thinking about so don't bother reading it.
January 8, 2024
I enjoyed reading this book much. A deep insight to struggling EU, booming US, muscle-flexing China, growing India, fast following Asia, young Africa and ever prosperous Oceania is obviously a good reference to see how the world evolves over the next decades. And I do like his optimistic world view from his big ideas. Some may say he is on the same line of Hans Rosling or Steven Pinker, too naïve to underestimate the real and serious challenges the world is going to face. In a similar notion, I recall reading a book predicting the next 100 years, in which the author argued high possibilities of war after war, even a space war in later this century. I admit, even at present we are witnessing wars in Ukraine and Palestine, but I do hope this will be the last occasion of geographic turmoil, and the leaders in the world feel motivated by reading this book to take the actions toward peace and harmony.
April 28, 2023
This book is quite frustrating because I love reading people’s visions of the future. However, this one does a poor job of explaining how to think about the future which is the subtitle of the book. It’s unfortunately very much from an economist's perspective. There are a few words about changes in values and how religions could affect the future, but not much. It’s quite clear that the author isn’t familiar with developmental psychology and the meta-models that have been developed over 20 or 20 years. The rise of post-modern and integral thinking will have a massive effect on how the world looks in 2050. Using this lens would also help better understand geopolitics and future possible conflicts in the world. A better name for that book would be “The World in 2050: wishes from a British economist“.
February 11, 2024
Overall, it's a well-written piece of what to expect in the coming 30-years (26 from my perspective). I'll say that McRae has 100% convinced me to try and get a career in academia or healthcare given the almost unlimited demand they both have now and in the future.
Though he may have been a little short-sighted in some parts. It's believed that by 2050, the middle-class will have grown significantly. While I'd like to believe that, the presence of technological growth (and technological unemployment too) is a wild card. According to a MIT economist David Autor paper I've read for a class, automation could impact the middle-class as most middle-paying careers are routine and thus able to be automated. So we might have more of a "barbell-shaped economy" by 2050 barring governmental interference.
Though he may have been a little short-sighted in some parts. It's believed that by 2050, the middle-class will have grown significantly. While I'd like to believe that, the presence of technological growth (and technological unemployment too) is a wild card. According to a MIT economist David Autor paper I've read for a class, automation could impact the middle-class as most middle-paying careers are routine and thus able to be automated. So we might have more of a "barbell-shaped economy" by 2050 barring governmental interference.
February 21, 2024
It took me months to finish not because it wasn’t interesting but because I read multiple things at a time…
Anyone who thinks that de-dollarisation is about to be the next big thing or that this is the end of the US’s economic or political might needs to give this book a read. I’m not the biggest fan of American abuse of power so this book is a reality check on how there are no alternatives to it. A reasonable look at the rest of the world too, and is very hopeful about the future including the climate, of which I have actually been very negative myself. Also a basic look at the future of technology and AI- again, have been uncertain about AI but it’s better to read/learn about AI and be informed instead of not knowing much about it and believing that the world is about to collapse. Quite optimistic.
Anyone who thinks that de-dollarisation is about to be the next big thing or that this is the end of the US’s economic or political might needs to give this book a read. I’m not the biggest fan of American abuse of power so this book is a reality check on how there are no alternatives to it. A reasonable look at the rest of the world too, and is very hopeful about the future including the climate, of which I have actually been very negative myself. Also a basic look at the future of technology and AI- again, have been uncertain about AI but it’s better to read/learn about AI and be informed instead of not knowing much about it and believing that the world is about to collapse. Quite optimistic.
March 27, 2024
I did manage to get through this book through sheer determination, looking for some pearls of wisdom. What I found was opinions of the author without anything substantial to back up his theories. In addition he frequently contradicted himself. - Russia and Europe can't escape geography therefore they have to have a relationship. Britain on the other hand is English speaking therefore their relationship going forward is with the US, Canada, Australia, NZ and India. Europe is a failed ideology and many countries will leave the union over the next decade. North and South Korea will unite. This really felt like an extremely padded out Telegraph or Mail article.
January 19, 2023
First book completed in 2023. It’s difficult to predict the future but we can’t ignore the underlying trends & forces that would mould the next few years & decades.
What does it mean for us when global demography is increasing shaped by older & more youthful population, climate change impact, how AI transforming how we work (interesting with ChatGPT development), consequences of global population reaching 10 billion & when India’s population overtakes China’s, etc. Just when I finished reading, news on China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961 was reported.
What does it mean for us when global demography is increasing shaped by older & more youthful population, climate change impact, how AI transforming how we work (interesting with ChatGPT development), consequences of global population reaching 10 billion & when India’s population overtakes China’s, etc. Just when I finished reading, news on China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961 was reported.
June 25, 2022
Some insights but too many variables to consider when trying to predict 30 years of global trend.
After reading, I still believe in the precision of the quote of John Kenneth Galbraith:
“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
After reading, I still believe in the precision of the quote of John Kenneth Galbraith:
“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
July 7, 2022
The book gave good amount of thought process of what will happen to different countries in the future. However, the words are too close to each other and there are too many unnecessary details. The book could have cut space of at least a third and give good space between sentences.
September 4, 2022
Feels like this has been done by several authors but still interesting to read another perspective. I'm not convinced by everything in it. But there was still plenty of plausible ideas presented in a readable fashion.
October 26, 2022
Basically just a verbal overview of the demographic & economic trends of every region/country in the world. Interesting if you're into that kind of thing & worth knowing but you'd probably do better by spending a couple hours on https://ourworldindata.org/
April 26, 2024
This is an interesting book that helped get me thinking about what our future world will look like. Although I do not agree with all the predictions that McRae makes about the world in 2050, I still found this book to be enjoyable and thought provoking.
June 15, 2022
Great book! Read it! Very eclectic and inter-disciplinary approach to thinking.
August 6, 2022
Excellent… engaging.
September 11, 2022
A glimpse of what’s coming, might be hard to read for some who are not used to such a technical book…but 100% worth it!
September 18, 2022
misleading content
December 29, 2022
Good overview of where different countries are likely heading in their economic and political developments.
May 7, 2023
An interesting read on what the next 30 years could bring, some fascinating insights on how the world could change.
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