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The Art of Thinking Clearly Kindle Edition

by Rolf Dobelli (Author) Format: Kindle Edition
4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 6,474 ratings
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A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life

Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger.

The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t.

Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

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  1. Print length
    389 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Sticky notes
    On Kindle Scribe
  4. Publisher
    Harper Paperbacks
  5. Publication date
    May 6, 2014
  6. File size
    640 KB
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  1. In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your chances of succeeding.
    Highlighted by 3,852 Kindle readers
  2. Survivorship bias means this: People systematically overestimate their chances of success. Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers. It is a sad walk but one that should clear your mind.
    Highlighted by 3,783 Kindle readers
  3. Rational decision making requires you to forget about the costs incurred to date. No matter how much you have already invested, only your assessment of the future costs and benefits counts.
    Highlighted by 3,510 Kindle readers
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Editorial Reviews

From Booklist

*Starred Review* Why do we stay in bad relationships or stubbornly hold on to failing investments? Dobelli, author and founder of Zurich.Minds, a community of thinkers, explores the natural tendencies we have to think illogically and how we can overcome them. This is not a facile how-to book but a serious examination of the faulty reasoning that leads to repeated mistakes by individuals, businesses, and nations. Among the logical errors Dobelli explores are survivorship bias, or systematic overestimation of the chances for success, and social proof (otherwise known as herd mentality), or feeling that an action or decision is correct because so many others are doing the same thing. Herd mentality is often demonstrated in the stock market, triggering bubbles and panics alike. Dobelli warns against the influence of so-called experts, news anchors, beautiful people, teams of workers, and others, cautioning readers to learn to think clearly for themselves. He offers some 99 common errors, drawing on social science, psychology, economics, and politics for amusing and sobering examples of the failure to think logically. In this fascinating book, Dobelli does not offer a recipe for happiness but a well-considered treatise on avoiding “self-induced unhappiness.” --Vanessa Bush

Review

“…a serious examination of the faulty reasoning that leads to repeated mistakes by individuals, businesses, and nations…In this fascinating book, Dobelli does not offer a recipe for happiness but a well-considered treatise on avoiding ‘self-induced unhappiness.’” (Booklist (starred review))

“…easy-going prose…what [Dobelli] does is pinpoint exactly the assumptions, bias and illusions that shape our thinking and decision-making processes in both business and personal relationships that can cost us dearly as individuals and as a society.” (Financial Times)

“Dobelli examines our most common decision-making failings with engaging eloquence and describes how to counter them with instructive good sense.” (Robert Cialdini, author of Influence)

“A fireworks show of insights into how our minds work. If you want to avoid tripping on cognitive errors, read this book.” (Iris Bohnet, Professor and Academic Dean, Harvard Kennedy School, Director of the Harvard Decision Science Laboratory)

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B00IZP6EVQ
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Harper Paperbacks; Reprint edition (May 6, 2014)
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ May 6, 2014
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • File size ‏ : ‎ 640 KB
  • Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
  • Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Sticky notes ‏ : ‎ On Kindle Scribe
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 389 pages
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 6,474 ratings

About the author

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Rolf Dobelli

Rolf Dobelli

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ROLF DOBELLI, born in 1966, is a Swiss novelist, writer and thinker. He received his PhD from the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. He is the founder of WORLD.MINDS, an international community of the leading personalities in science, business, geopolitics, and the arts. His books have been translated in 47 languages. Rolf Dobelli lives in Switzerland.

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4.5 out of 5 stars
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Top reviews from the United States

BooksArt
5.0 out of 5 stars Very enlightening
Reviewed in the United States on April 10, 2024
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This book is quite enlightening.
Some areas are easier to grasp than others. Nonetheless, that appeals to me.
A part of the enjoyment of reading is challenging our thinking and perception of things.
As a result we continue to grow.
Give this book a try, you might learn something that will be to your advantage.
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A.
5.0 out of 5 stars About.
Reviewed in the United States on March 22, 2024
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Enjoyed the book and recommend it . Made difficult concepts easier to grasp. Funny. Good for people with modest attention spans.
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Ian Mann
4.0 out of 5 stars including the highly intelligent, resulting in everyone falling into the same cognitive ...
Reviewed in the United States on April 12, 2017
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In the 1960s psychologists began to examine scientifically, how people think, decide and take action. The result, explains the author of this book, Rolf Dobelli, was a “theory of irrationality that states: thinking is in itself not pure, but prone to error.” This, they found, was true of all people, including the highly intelligent, resulting in everyone falling into the same cognitive errors.
More interestingly, it appears we all “systematically err in the same direction.” If this is indeed true, it means we all make predictable mistakes. If it is true, and it appears to be, we should be able to fix at least some of them and avoid making these errors in our lives.
Dobelli has gathered 99 errors common to us all. He provides short, amusing and pithy insights into their form and causes. This has not made his life error free, he reports. However, “to make things simple, I have set myself the following rules: in situations where the possible consequences are large, I try to be as reasonable and rational as possible when choosing… In situations where the consequences are small I forget about rational optimisation and let my intuition take over.”
This book is a useful compendium of error. Reading this book will certainly increase one’s awareness of possible errors, which will lead to better decisions. To illustrate, I have chosen five errors of the Dobelli’s 99.
Social Proof
You are roaming the Serengeti some 50,000 years ago, and your hunter-gather companions suddenly break into a desperate run away from some disturbance. What should you do? Mindlessly follow, or consider the possibility that it is a gazelle rather than a predator. Having seen a thoughtful companion become some animal’s lunch you run with the crowd.
“Social proof” is the legacy of this herd instinct that dictates that individuals are behaving correctly when they act the same as other people. Social proof is behind stock market bubbles, as well as stock market stampedes. It is no different in the worlds of fashion, management techniques, and diets.
Social proof informs even simple decision such as selecting a restaurant in an area with which you are unfamiliar. It seems sensible to choose the one that is full over a poorly patronised one.
Novelist W. Somerset Maugham put the error of social proof succinctly: ‘If 50 million people say something foolish, it is still foolish.’
Sunk Cost Fallacy
The film was awful. After an hour, Dobelli whispered to his wife: ‘Come on, let’s go home.’ She replied : ‘No way. We’re not throwing away $ 30.’ The $ 30 is not reason to stay, that would be a thinking error. The money was been spent, and will not be returned. This is an example of the sunk cost error.
So often in business, there is the sense that having invested so much, it would be wrong to stop now. Stopping now, makes the investment seem a mistake. The sunk cost fallacy is most dangerous when we have invested time, money, energy, commitment or love in something.
The need for consistency drives this type of irrational behaviour. Deciding to cancel the project before it is completed is to admit that we had made a mistake.
Sometimes the consequences of this thinking error costs lives as when America extended their involvement in the Vietnam War. Their thinking: ‘We’ve already sacrificed so much for this war; it would be a mistake to give up now.’
Reciprocity
Psychologist Robert Cialdini has studied the phenomenon of reciprocity and concluded that people have discomfort feeling they are indebted to another person.
Dobelli offers this example: “A supplier of screws invites a potential customer to join him at a big sports game. A month later, it’s time to order screws. The desire not to be in debt is so strong that the buyer gives in and places an order with his new friend.”
This phenomenon has a long history. When primitive man’s food supplies were subject to high fluctuations, he needed others to share their food with him. When he killed an animal too large to eat in one day, he would share the meat with others in his group. Doing this would ensure that they share their meat with him when he is short.
When approached in the supermarket, with an offer of a taste of wine, a chunk of cheese or a handful of olives, Dobelli advises to refuse the offer. The error of reciprocity has led many to ending up a pantry full of goods they do not even like.
Contrast Effect
We judge something to be beautiful, expensive or large only if we have something ugly, cheap or small to compare it to.
Experiments indicate that people will walk an extra ten minutes to save $ 10 on food. The same people, however would not walk ten minutes to save $ 10 on a $ 1,000 suit. The whole category of discount business is only viable because of this error, Dobelli claims.
In the investment arena, the error leads people to believe a share is good value because it is 50% below the peak price. The share price is what it is, and comparison is irrelevant. All that matters is whether the share goes up or down in the future.
The contrast effect also plays out in the social arena. If you are dating it is not prudent to double date with your supermodel friend. This makes you appear less attractive than you really are!
Chauffeur Knowledge
According to Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s business partner, there are two types of knowledge. “Real knowledge” is what people have when they have invested time and effort to understanding a topic. “Chauffeur knowledge” is the result of learning how to put on a show. Warren Buffett uses the phrase, ‘circle of competence’ to avoid this error. ‘You have to stick within what I call your circle of competence. You have to know what you understand and what you don’t understand. It’s not terribly important how big the circle is. But it is terribly important that you know where the perimeter is.’
It is so easy to not confuse the company spokesperson, the newscaster, and the cliché generator with those who possess true knowledge. You can recognize the difference because the true experts know what they know and what they do not know.
This book is a “must read!” We cannot do enough to protect ourselves from our thinking errors and the author sites 99 such errors. Much of the material in this book can be found scattered elsewhere. The value of this book is that the information is in one place.
Readability Light --+-- Serious
Insights High --+-- Low
Practical High --+-- Low

*Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works.
126 people found this helpful
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5.0 out of 5 stars Comparing to Wiki's Cognitive Bias List?
Reviewed in the United States on May 14, 2013
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Many know that Wikipedia has a "mistake" list of potential cognitive errors and biases that links to nearly infinite mistakes these poor brains can make! This is like the little book of 100 things that can go right vs. the 2,000 page book of clinical maladies that can descend upon us each unsuspecting day.

This read is truly an eye-opening joy ride! Even though the author claims happiness is genetic and not to expect too much, hey, get this, it's enlightening AND entertaining! How is it better than the plethora of error books and self help sites out there, as well as Wiki's extensive list? Wow, no comparison. Dobelli uses short, punchy "chapters" that are almost just a few paragraphs to explain, define, exemplify and illustrate each cognitive trap, error and bias-- astonishing. The humor is dry but everywhere, especially his many "aha" insights about how these errors helped us keep from being killed as cave folk but do us disservice now. He wryly shares that the guy who questioned the herd mentality probably didn't contribute to the gene pool if he did so while all his buddies were running from a lion! This author's sense of humor is too contagious.

As you get through the first few "chapters" your mind will be reeling with the insights-- they really are more subtle than the fun tone suggests at first. Then, you look at the 300 pages that remain and realize how PACKED this book is with eye opening insights-- wow. This is one of those rare books after which you never look at the world, your life, or your relationships the same, EVER again!

Even if you've studied these mistakes and biases for years, or are an expert in the field (an "authority?" oh, oh), Rolf's "multiple angle" style of illustration, story telling, examples, descriptions and taxonomy really drives the trap home in deeply understandable, gut ways you might not have experienced with other authors. A dry topic like exit barriers is generalized with an error about sunk costs, and examples given for everything from relationships to habits, never mind investments! Though he is a friend of Taleb's, don't believe the hype that this is a "business" or investing book-- its examples and applications range much farther than that universe, down to our daily unconscious choices and patterns.

Highly recommended for anyone who enjoys seemingly light page turners that turn out to be much deeper and life changing. NOT a self help tome, in fact he makes great fun of self helpers, showing them the covariate mirror where they ignored their own genetics and luck to get there, having nothing to do at all with the "techniques" they are now espousing and promoting. Best of all, this is a guy who continually makes fun of himself and tells many stories about his own "stupidity" -- subtly teaching us he's caught on to the subtlest trickster of all-- ego.

Library Picks reviews only for the benefit of Amazon shoppers and has nothing to do with Amazon, the authors, manufacturers or publishers of the items we review. We always buy the items we review for the sake of objectivity, and although we search for gems, are not shy about trashing an item if it's a waste of time or money for Amazon shoppers. If the reviewer identifies herself, her job or her field, it is only as a point of reference to help you gauge the background and any biases.
27 people found this helpful
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Taylor Maier
5.0 out of 5 stars You must read this book right now!
Reviewed in the United States on November 13, 2023
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I don’t usually write reviews with such an exaggerated title, but I would give this book 10 stars if I could. Easy to read, captivating, and potentially life-changing. Understand yourself and think your way to a brighter future.
5 people found this helpful
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Rafael Puerari
5.0 out of 5 stars otimo livro
Reviewed in Brazil on January 8, 2024
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otimo livro
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Ram
5.0 out of 5 stars Great Book
Reviewed in India on April 2, 2024
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Very thought provoking and communicated in a simple and easy to understand way!
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Walter Meloni
5.0 out of 5 stars A mind opening book!
Reviewed in Italy on March 12, 2024
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Be ready to change your mind! A must have.
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Conilo
5.0 out of 5 stars Excelente libro para desarrollar consciencia del entorno.
Reviewed in Mexico on September 26, 2018
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Este libro brinda muchas observaciones y sugerencias para ser más conscientes de las acciones que realizamos en nuestra vida diaria: desde una compra hasta ciertas situaciones en las relaciones personales. Plantea los distintos motivos que pueden estar en transfondo y de los cuales no siempre estamos conscientes o incluso desconocemos su existencia. El libro tiene muchos ejemplos para cada caso y es muy digerible. Lo recomiendo ampliamente.
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raz
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent service
Reviewed in Australia on July 25, 2023
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Received my book on time and it looked exactly as described. I’m happy with my purchase
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