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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1st Edition

by Daniel Kahneman (Editor), Paul Slovic (Editor), Amos Tversky (Editor)
4.6 4.6 out of 5 stars 74 ratings
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The thirty five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.
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  1. ISBN-10
    0521284147
  2. ISBN-13
    978-0521284141
  3. Edition
    1st
  4. Publisher
    Cambridge University Press
  5. Publication date
    April 30, 1982
  6. Language
    English
  7. Dimensions
    6 x 1.44 x 9 inches
  8. Print length
    544 pages
  9. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"The papers chosen for this volume are an excellent collection, generally well-written and fascinating." Journal of Economic Literature

"The examples are lively, the style is engaging, and it is as entertaining as it is enlightening." Times Literary Supplement

"...an important and well-written book." Journal of the American Statistical Association

"...a good collection of papers on an important topic." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology

"Clearly, this is an important book. Anyone who undertakes judgment and decision research should own it." Contemporary Psychology

Book Description

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Cambridge University Press; 1st edition (April 30, 1982)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 544 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0521284147
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0521284141
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.79 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1.44 x 9 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.6 4.6 out of 5 stars 74 ratings

About the authors

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  1. Amos Tversky

    Amos Tversky

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  2. Daniel Kahneman

    Daniel Kahneman

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    Daniel Kahneman (Hebrew: דניאל כהנמן‎, born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (shared with Vernon L. Smith). His empirical findings challenge the assumption of human rationality prevailing in modern economic theory. With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973; Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and developed prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).

    In 2011, he was named by Foreign Policy magazine to its list of top global thinkers. In the same year, his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, which summarizes much of his research, was published and became a best seller. He is professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School. Kahneman is a founding partner of TGG Group, a business and philanthropy consulting company. He is married to Royal Society Fellow Anne Treisman.

    In 2015 The Economist listed him as the seventh most influential economist in the world.

    Bio from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Photo by see page for author [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.

    See more on the author's page
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Customer reviews

4.6 out of 5 stars
4.6 out of 5
74 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

PGH
5.0 out of 5 stars A foundational text in judgment and decision making / behavioral economics
Reviewed in the United States on November 15, 2023
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This is a compendium of the classic works that popularized and grew the field of judgment and decision making and behavioral economics. A must-read for graduate students and serious analysts.
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C. Livingston
5.0 out of 5 stars Most influential book I have read
Reviewed in the United States on March 30, 2014
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I purchased and read this about five years ago. It is probably the most influential book I have ever read. It spawned an interest in a number of related books and on thinking in general. It is scholarly articles, but I found it to be quite readable--just a lot of detail. I agree with the reviewer who wished for a version aimed toward high school students.
19 people found this helpful
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Brian D. Labatte
5.0 out of 5 stars The one and only.
Reviewed in the United States on October 7, 2013
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If you read only one book on behavioral decision making, this is it. Thinking Fast and Slow is the abbreviated version. This is the original.
22 people found this helpful
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Jianghui Li
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United States on January 20, 2015
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Good book.
One person found this helpful
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Michael Emmett Brady
4.0 out of 5 stars Prospect theory is a subset of Keynes's theory of probability
Reviewed in the United States on October 9, 2005
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The essays contained in this book show convincingly that the standard decision theoretic model taught world wide since the mid 1940's,the subjective expected utility model based on the subjective approach to probability of Ramsey,De Finetti,and Savage,is not supported by the experimental evidence.The essays successfully show how the use of Prospect Theory accounts for the underweighting(subadditive-subproportional) and overweighting(superadditive-superproportional)of decision weights(non linear "probabilities").Three basic judgmental heuristic operations are preformed by decision makers in the real world.These operations are intuitive and based on the perceptions of the decision maker.The first heuristic that decision makers use in making probability evaluations is called representativeness.Judgments of probability are based on what is perceived as similar.The second heuristic is the availability heuristic.It,like the third heuristic,specifies that decision makers concentrate only on that evidence,upon which the probabilities will be estimated,that is most easily obtained or is immediately available.The third heuristic is called the anchoring heuristic.Decision makers use only that evidence that comes first.Tversky and Kahneman,as well as all of the other essay authors,argue that their experimental evidence demonstrates or shows that decision makers do not understand the mathematical laws of probability(additivity of probabilities,addition principle,multiplication principle,marginal probability,conditional probability,joint probability).They also do not understand basic statistical concepts(regression to the mean of a probability distribution). In 1921,in his A Treatise on Probability(TP),J M Keynes pointed out that the purely mathematical conception of probability was a very small subset of what he called the logical theory of probability.In order to apply the purely mathematical laws of probability correctly,a decision maker had to have a complete sample space of all possible outcomes specified in advance.An equivalent assumption is that the decision maker knows for certain what the particular probability distribution is.Secondly,probability preferences would have to be specified by a complete order that was linear or proportional.Any decision situation that did not satisfy these conditions had a weight of evidence less than one.Keynes specified a variable,w,called the weight of the evidence,that measured the completeness of the relevant,potential evidence that was available to the decision maker.It was defined on the unit interval between 0 and 1,just like Ellsberg's rho variable that would serve as a measure of the ambiguity of the evidence.The existence of ambiguity automaticaly will lead to violations of the purely mathematical laws of probability.Contrary to Kahneman and Tversky,Ellsberg,like Keynes before him,argued that these calculations are not erroneous and the decision makers are not irrational or biased.The claims made by Tversky, Kahneman and their many followers(Shiller,for example),that the subjects in their experiments are probabilistically and statistically illiterate,makes no sense because the problems that are presented to the experimental subjects do not allow the subjects to unambiguously define a unique probability distribution or a complete sample space of all possible outcomes(some examples are the blue-green taxi cab problem,the rare Asian disease problem,the battlefield problem,the Linda-bankteller problem,and the lawyer-engineer problem).Let us now turn to the representativeness heuristic.The representativeness heuristic turns out to be none other than Keynes's degree of similarity or likeness or resemblance discussed by Keynes in chapter 3 and Part III of the TP.The anchoring and availability heuristics are identical to the statement that the weight of the evidence is less than 1 for a real world decision maker.Keynes showed that decision makers would usually be able to use interval estimates(upper-lower probabilities) only.You automatically will violate the mathematical laws of probability,which only hold in the limiting case where w=1,given linear probability preferences.Keynes also showed this in his examples of his conventional coefficient of weight and risk,c.The answers obtained when one applies the c coefficient will be sub and super additive.Keynes ,however,would argue that these are not biases or errors,but correct calculations obtained with incomplete information.The vast majority of decision makers are attempting to reason probabilistically without the benefit of knowing a unique probability distribution,a complete sample space,or being able to specify a complete order over all outcomes.They are rational.Tversky and Kahneman are requiring "SUPERRATIONALITY".Every calculation of a probability estimate that does not have a weight of 1 or violates Carnap's rule of total evidence will violate the mathematical laws of probability.L J Cohen,repeating Keynes's argument,spent 20 years trying to get this point across to Kahneman and Tversky in the journal Brain and Behavioral Science(1975-1994) .Tversky's support theory is a belated attempt to remedy their omission,but it has not been successfuly integrated into Prospect theory(1979)or Cumulative Prospect theory(1992),where the weighting function is still a function of a single variable representing probability,although additional parameters have been incorporated into the model.One could argue that it is Tversky and Kahneman who are irrationally insisting that decision makers use the mathematical laws of probability in situations where those laws are not applicable.
30 people found this helpful
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Kiran Garimella
5.0 out of 5 stars A must read for the thinking person...
Reviewed in the United States on October 15, 2009
...and especially for the non-thinking person! This book, a popular classic for the past 25 years, opened my eyes to the prevalence and scope of biases in our thinking. The authors take great care to identify and define biases using rigorous, scientific measurements. Their experiments to uncover various types of biases are as fascinating as the end results. There were many occasions when I remembered or referenced this book in the last two decades. I have also recommended this book many times to anyone who expressed even a whiff of interest in decision-making, the workings of the human mind, psychology, etc.

In fact, I think an abbreviated version of this would be perfect at the high school level. Some of these experiments (or a carefully modified version of them) can be performed by high school students, and it would be invaluable in teaching them (a) how to design experiments to uncover even abstract and subjective thinking patterns, (b) the prevalence and scope of biases, and (c) the power of the scientific method in general.

Our schools most likely will not follow my recommendation (probability = 0.98). So, if you have a child in junior year or older and is 'intellectual' in outlook, or has expressed any interest in philosophy, psychology, law, etc., I strongly recommend that you give this book as a gift.
12 people found this helpful
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Tyler Markowsky
5.0 out of 5 stars my humble opinion
Reviewed in the United States on April 27, 2004
Of course, my humble opinion relative to Nobel award committee will hold little intrinsic value, other than a layman's interpretation and application.
An economist myself, I found this book very interesting and educational to read. Although the book is quite verbose, the fluidity and organization of the content facilitates a smooth read - not a bludgeoning of the mind.
I found this book particularly applicable to research in market behavior, systemic analysis (because this book outlines the individuals and how they act within the system); even policy development (uncertainty).
I would recommend this book to anyone interested in psychology, social psychology, economics, policy, and politics.
Regards,
Tyler Markowsky
56 people found this helpful
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Ali
2.0 out of 5 stars The book and price deserve a better print quality
Reviewed in the United States on December 14, 2020
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I was excited to get my hands on the book because of the content but was very disappointed by the super low print quality! Never seen such a poor print from Cambridge University Press. Looks like one of those print-after-order cheap prints!
4 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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1.0 out of 5 stars Poor quality. Avoid seller Transinfopreneur, high pricing Cambridge University press books.
Reviewed in India on March 10, 2023
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Poor quality. Avoid seller. Seller abusing Cambridge University Press books. He must learn a lesson. Avoid.
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Francisco Inacio Bastos
5.0 out of 5 stars Uma obra seminal, destinada a pessoas com um conhecimento prévio em heurística
Reviewed in Brazil on December 10, 2020
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Trata-se de uma coletânea de qualidade primorosa, mas basicamente destinada a pessoas que já detêm um conhecimento básico sobre heurística, teoria da decisão etc.. O público em geral deve iniciar essas leituras por livros menos técnicos, como a excelente súmula de Daniel Kahneman (Thinking, fast and slow) ou pela resenha de caráter mais biográfico de Michael Lewis (The Undoing Project). Esta compilação de trabalhos originais de Tversky/Kahneman e seus inúmeros colaboradores e discípulos é basicamente acadêmica e técnica.
5 people found this helpful
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Bela
5.0 out of 5 stars great book
Reviewed in Canada on July 6, 2019
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I think it should be taught in all schools
One person found this helpful
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Domenico Tudini
4.0 out of 5 stars Contributo decisivo per l'argomento
Reviewed in Italy on September 1, 2015
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E' un libro interessante e ricco di spunti ( assolutamente per addetti ), il tema è trattato con molta ricchezza. Lo consiglio.
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Me
5.0 out of 5 stars Great book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 11, 2012
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This is a great book about the mental and cognitive processes which guide us through our life.
It demonstrate the heuristics by different experiments which makes it more believable.
However, this is the academic version of this topic, so if someone wants to read about it in an easier language, I recommend reading "Thinking, fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman.
9 people found this helpful
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