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A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises
Financial crises happen time and again in post-industrial economies—and they are extraordinarily damaging. Building on insights gleaned from many years of work in the banking industry and drawing on a vast trove of data, Richard Vague argues that such crises follow a pattern that makes them both predictable and avoidable.
A Brief History of Doom examines a series of major crises over the past 200 years in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan, and China—including the Great Depression and the economic meltdown of 2008. Vague demonstrates that the over-accumulation of private debt does a better job than any other variable of explaining and predicting financial crises. In a series of clear and gripping chapters, he shows that in each case the rapid growth of loans produced widespread overcapacity, which then led to the spread of bad loans and bank failures. This cycle, according to Vague, is the essence of financial crises and the script they invariably follow.
The story of financial crisis is fundamentally the story of private debt and runaway lending. Convinced that we have it within our power to break the cycle, Vague provides the tools to enable politicians, bankers, and private citizens to recognize and respond to the danger signs before it begins again.
A Brief History of Doom examines a series of major crises over the past 200 years in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan, and China—including the Great Depression and the economic meltdown of 2008. Vague demonstrates that the over-accumulation of private debt does a better job than any other variable of explaining and predicting financial crises. In a series of clear and gripping chapters, he shows that in each case the rapid growth of loans produced widespread overcapacity, which then led to the spread of bad loans and bank failures. This cycle, according to Vague, is the essence of financial crises and the script they invariably follow.
The story of financial crisis is fundamentally the story of private debt and runaway lending. Convinced that we have it within our power to break the cycle, Vague provides the tools to enable politicians, bankers, and private citizens to recognize and respond to the danger signs before it begins again.
240 pages, Hardcover
Published May 24, 2019
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Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews
February 11, 2021
This book’s full title is A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises. This is an interesting book talking about passed financial crisis being mainly caused by private. Richard Vague tells a good story.
One of the things that is pointed out is that investors sometimes bought bonds because they thought they were safer than buying a company’s stock. After all, bond holders have to be paid before stockholders get any money. However, if a company goes bankrupt, bondholders lose also. The lesson should be that you should not buy bonds from a company for which you would not buy the stock.
The thing that Richard Vague is pointing out in this book is that recessions are caused by private debt increasing dramatically against the GDP. Private debt is both of individuals and companies. Usually overbuilding comes into play (railways, real estate). Recessions are worsened then when people then stop spending. A lot of the economy, especially in the US, is dependent on individuals spending.
One of the things he points out is that the recovery from 2008 would have been much better if individual households who were under water because of mortgages were helped out. Only the banks and financial institutions were help. A lot of people in the US are still angry about that.
I live in Toronto and this book comes at a handy time because I have been worried about all the condo building going on. There has been an incredible number of condos built. Real estate prices just go higher and higher. You have to wonder who is buying all these condos. At night the ones that are built and bought seem to have few lights on at night. So, we seem to be overbuilding and anything I have read is that Canadians have a very high level of debt.
There are few reviews on Good Reads. On Good Reads, a lot of people have rated this book and usually with 4 and 5 stars. Joseph N. DiStefano does a review of this book for Philadelphia Inquirer. Some of the best reviews on in newspapers. Another good place is blogs. There is a good review also on the Dollar and Sense blog.
Richard Vague speaks on YouTube about his book. He speaks until around 14:41 and then the interview begins. He said that the US does not have a problem with private debt currently, however, Asia does. He thinks our next crisis will come from Asia. He thinks that ordinary people should have gotten debt relief in the 2008 crisis just as the banks got help. Rob Johnson interviews Richard Vague at the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Richard Vague talks at Oxford Union on why he has little hope for the next decade. Richard Vague talks about debt on New Economic Thinking.
One of the things that is pointed out is that investors sometimes bought bonds because they thought they were safer than buying a company’s stock. After all, bond holders have to be paid before stockholders get any money. However, if a company goes bankrupt, bondholders lose also. The lesson should be that you should not buy bonds from a company for which you would not buy the stock.
The thing that Richard Vague is pointing out in this book is that recessions are caused by private debt increasing dramatically against the GDP. Private debt is both of individuals and companies. Usually overbuilding comes into play (railways, real estate). Recessions are worsened then when people then stop spending. A lot of the economy, especially in the US, is dependent on individuals spending.
One of the things he points out is that the recovery from 2008 would have been much better if individual households who were under water because of mortgages were helped out. Only the banks and financial institutions were help. A lot of people in the US are still angry about that.
I live in Toronto and this book comes at a handy time because I have been worried about all the condo building going on. There has been an incredible number of condos built. Real estate prices just go higher and higher. You have to wonder who is buying all these condos. At night the ones that are built and bought seem to have few lights on at night. So, we seem to be overbuilding and anything I have read is that Canadians have a very high level of debt.
There are few reviews on Good Reads. On Good Reads, a lot of people have rated this book and usually with 4 and 5 stars. Joseph N. DiStefano does a review of this book for Philadelphia Inquirer. Some of the best reviews on in newspapers. Another good place is blogs. There is a good review also on the Dollar and Sense blog.
Richard Vague speaks on YouTube about his book. He speaks until around 14:41 and then the interview begins. He said that the US does not have a problem with private debt currently, however, Asia does. He thinks our next crisis will come from Asia. He thinks that ordinary people should have gotten debt relief in the 2008 crisis just as the banks got help. Rob Johnson interviews Richard Vague at the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Richard Vague talks at Oxford Union on why he has little hope for the next decade. Richard Vague talks about debt on New Economic Thinking.
April 20, 2021
Richard Vague does a great job taking us through a lot of financial history to explain his premise that excessive private debt causes recessions/depressions. I had seen a video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1CwG... that covers the main points but the book goes into much more detail.
September 3, 2019
Interesting enough though it would have benefitted from editing.
November 24, 2021
Essential reading for those wishing to understand the dynamics of financial crises. Well researched, deep and honest. Will probably leave you with the sense that crisis is inherent to Capital.
February 20, 2022
Compilation of how investment happened via Private Debt increases over various periods. Theory is similar to ABCT (Austrian Economics) with emphasis that private debt matters more than public.
February 19, 2020
There is a lot to learn in this book. It presents a lot of data (charts and tables) on a number of financial crises from the beginning of the U.S. to the Great Recession, and brings in global financial crises too.
The author looked for patterns and found the rise of private debt as the culprit in all of these crises. In fact, the level of private debt started rising fast often 2 years before the crisis hit. There were so many indicators of the Great Recession - it was not a matter of if, but when.
Recommended if you want to improve your education on the workings of the financial system, and to potential get yourself to a safe financial position based on the data and trends.
The author looked for patterns and found the rise of private debt as the culprit in all of these crises. In fact, the level of private debt started rising fast often 2 years before the crisis hit. There were so many indicators of the Great Recession - it was not a matter of if, but when.
Recommended if you want to improve your education on the workings of the financial system, and to potential get yourself to a safe financial position based on the data and trends.
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews