When I read this book, I was amazed. Based on what I had heard I had thoroughly convinced myself that our environment is getting worse and worse. And then there is this Danish associate professor Bjorn Lomborg, who writes a book describing, among other things, how:
1. The world population is not growing at a record rate; the growth rate has been steadily declining since 1964. The world's population is expected to stabilize just short of 11 billion.
2. There is more and more food per head of the world's population. This is largely caused by the success of the so-called 'Green Revolution' (high-yield crops, irrigation and controlled water supply, fertilisers and pesticides, and farmers' management skills). The number of people starving is decreasing (although the numbers are still frighteningly high!)
3. Our lives and health have improved dramatically over the past couple of hundred years due to better standards of living, better hygiene and water supplies and better medical therapy. And over the past 50 years poverty has fallen more than in the previous 500. Also in the developing world a fantastic progress has been made (although there is still a long way to go!). Furthermore, over the past three decades, inequality between countries has not been increasing but decreasing. This trend is expected to continue throughout much of the century.
4. We are not headed for a major energy crisis, nor are we likely to experience any significant scarcity of raw materials. The earth is not running out of energy or natural recourses.
5. We need to manage and price water more carefully but we are not facing insurmountable water shortages.
6. Overall, the pollution burden has diminished dramatically in the developed world. Air pollution has dramatically decreased over the past decades in the Western world while at the same time there has been a dramatic economic growth. It would be a mistake to believe that economic growth is in the process of destroying the earth. Economy and ecology complement each other.
7. Global warming is almost certainly taking place, but 1) probably less devastating than often claimed, 2) radical fuel cutbacks are worse than the original affliction
8. Biodiversity-reduction and deforestation do exist but to a much lesser extent than often thought and claimed.
Lomborg describes all of this very transparantly, uses clear statistics, uses excellent references and argues very logically, intelligently and subtly. He constantly keeps on explaining and reminding throughout the book that the fact that things are getting better does not mean everything is OK. He clearly points at the necessity to keep on focusing on solving all of the real problems we still face. Also he acknowledges that the fact that things are getting better overall does not mean that there are no places or times were things get worse. The author says for instance: "A lot still needs to be done to improve conditions in Africa, not only in the context of AIDS prevention but also for food availability and economic production.
I think this is a brave and terrific book. I was surprised by how ferociously it was attached by some authoritative scientists, for instance in Scientific American. These scientists treat the book literally as if it were an attack on science. I read many of the criticisms and Lomborg's response to them. And according to me, Lomborg wins by knock out. The criticisms are full of irrelevant personal attacks, misquotations and unsubstantiated attacks. Lomborg's replies are factual and to the point. I am not an expert at all in this field and I can't know how right Lomborg is. But if he's right, it wouldn't be the first time that established scientists deny a truthful new message and try to isolate the messenger.
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Top reviews from other countries
C. C. Williams
World shaking and life changing
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on June 10, 2003